Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Having spent a reasonable amount of time there, I have the highest regard for Australia and Australians. In general they are good, level-headed folks.
Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for the people who wrote the Waxman-Markey website page on Australia. I discussed the first of their “Impact Zones” here, please read it for an overview of the Waxman Markey site. This thread discusses why you need to be very careful with the Waxman Markey “facts” about Australia – they bite.
Figure 1. An Australian example of what we surfers call “the man in the gray suit”.
The website says:
Drought
Global warming is a major contributor to Australian drought. Record high temperatures are increasing evaporation, damaging vegetation and reducing water for irrigation in the continent’s agricultural basin. Sustained high temperatures are as hazardous for people as they are for plants. The average annual death toll from heat waves is over 1,100 people in Australia and that number only stands to increase.
In 2006, Australia experienced its worst drought in the last millennium. The Murray-Darling River System, which produces well over half of the country’s water supply, dropped 54 percent below its record low.
BZZZZT! Bad website, no cookies! Another factual error, and another big lie.
First, the factual error. The website links the claim of the “worst drought in the last millennium” to that noted scientific journal, the Guardian newspaper. It in turn says:
Australia suffers worst drought in 1,000 years
Australia’s blistering summer has only just begun but reservoir levels are dropping fast, crop forecasts have been slashed, and great swaths of the continent are entering what scientists yesterday called a “one in a thousand years drought”.
With many regions in their fifth year of drought, the government yesterday called an emergency water summit in Canberra. The meeting between the prime minister, John Howard, and the leaders of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, and Queensland was told that more than half of Australia’s farmland was experiencing drought.
David Dreverman, head of the Murray-Darling river basin commission, said: “This is more typical of a one in a 1,000-year drought, or possibly even drier, than it is of a one in 100-year event.”
What’s wrong with their statement? A number of things. First, “scientists” didn’t say anything about a one in a thousand year drought. That was said by David Dreverman, who is the head of the local Murray-Darling river commission.
Second, Mr. Dreverman did not base that statement on a thousand years of drought records preserved in tree rings, or on other proxies, or on any observations at all. It was simply a mathematical estimate of what is called a “return period” based on a probability distribution, not a scientific statement of historical fact. Here is a link (PDF) to how it was calculated.
Third, his statement was only peripherally connected to the drought. He was actually talking, not about the drought, but about the return period of the flow of the Murray River.
Fourth, he either didn’t notice or didn’t want to comment on the other reasons why the Murray River is so low. Here (PDF) are some of the reasons:
So why is there less water?
The amount of water that ends up in the Murray river has changed because:
• More farm dams have reduced run-off by between 660 and 2,400 gigalitres (Gl) per year
• Groundwater pumping has reduced run-off by 327 gigalitres per year
• regrowth from the bushfires in early 2003, when over a million hectares of
native forest was burnt, could reduce run-off by 430 gigalitres by 2020
• new plantations could have further reduced inflows by 1,100-1,400 gigalitres per year
• farmers have increased the water holding capacity of their soil by adopting minimum tillage.
So that’s the factual error. The 2006 drought was serious, there’s no question about that. But there is no scientific evidence that it was the biggest drought in a thousand years. That’s just alarmist hype.
If that’s the factual error, where’s the big lie?
The big lie is that global warming is making Australia drier. Or as the website says:
Global warming is a major contributor to Australian drought. Record high temperatures are … reducing water for irrigation in the continent’s agricultural basin.
Why is that a big lie? Because Australia has has been getting wetter as the globe warmed over the last century.
How do I know that? Well, that’s what the Australian Bureau of Meteorology says. Here’s their information about Australian rainfall, from their website.
Figure 2. Changes in rainfall, Australia, 1900-2009
No sign of a problem there, rainfall is increasing. It has increased by about 80 mm (3″) over the last century. Note that (as has been true for millennia), the rainfall in Australia comes in fits and starts. It is not uncommon for a year to have twice the rain of an adjacent year.
Now I can hear you thinking “But what about the places that were hit by the drought? The Murray-Darling River basin (of “1,000 year drought” fame) and West Australia and South Australia were all hit very hard in 2006. They must be drying out.”
We are nothing if not a full service website:
Figure 3. Changes in rainfall, Murray Darling Basin
Figure 4. Changes in rainfall, South Australia.
Figure 5. Changes in rainfall, West Australia.
No reduction in rainfall there either. Yes, there was very little rainfall in 2006 in South Australia and the Murray Darling Basin and West Australia … but in all cases, there have been worse years in the historical record.
Finally, there must be some areas of Australia that are getting dryer, aren’t there? Of course. It’s a big place. Here’s an overview of the country, showing the changes since 1900:
The overwhelming majority of the country has gotten wetter. A few places have dried slightly.
SUMMARY: Their web page contains one misrepresentation of fact about droughts, and one big lie.
Misrepresentation of fact: the 2006 drought was not the biggest in a thousand years. Most places it was not even the biggest drought in the historical record.
THE BIG LIE: When you look at the full record for Australia, it is evident that as the globe warms, Australia is not drying out. It is getting wetter.
The big lie is that “global warming” is reducing the rainfall in Australia. In fact, it is increasing the rainfall … go figure.
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The rule is simple: if a country has low rainfall then Global Warming will make it worse with less rain; if a country has high rainfall then Global Warming will make it worse with mre rain. If you run the models enough times, you can pick whatever answer you want for each country.
Another brilliant demolition job, Willis.
But, as you well know, it isn’t really about facts or even (perish the thought!) science.
It is all about giving the “robust” and “rational” information that is needed, so that all the turkeys will enthusiastically vote for Christmas.
My first whiffs of skepticism were prompted by statements a few years ago about Australia like: “scientists today said the worst drought in more than 100 years was proof of man made global warming”.
Thinks…..so 100 years ago there were worse droughts??
In my Sydney schoolyard in 1951 or so we used to amuse ourselves popping the bubbles in the playground asphalt during heatwaves. I won’t mention the condition of the school milk bottles which sat outside for a couple of hours before recess…
Ooh look, it’s politicians who lie! A rare species indeed.
Seriously though these people will never be held accountable for their campaign of disinformation. Ever.
Not to confuse weather with climate but:-
Sydney has just had it’s coldest low (overnight) June temperature since 1949 of 4.3C.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/30/2941227.htm
The record for the coldest is 2.1C on 22/06/1932.
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/links/temprec/sydney.htm
Yeah, but it’s rotten rain.
Inland rainfall in Australia, for things like the Murray-Darlin river system, also depends on Cyclones crossing the great dividing range, if there is less cyclones, or smaller ones then less rain makes it’s way inland.
The rainfall charts might be less scary if the scales went to zero.
We’re constantly bombarded in the Australian MSM with claims that climate change will affect Australia more so than any other country. Last summer was pretty cool, as Sydney summers go, very few flies. Same too with the summer before that (Black Saturday compared to almost no bushfires in NSW last summer). Last winter the snow season started eary, about 6 weeks as I recall, maybe 4. And this winter is shaping up to be a real chiller too as with another post about a record, 61 year, low for Sydney and lows in some places to -10c. I guess I have been relatively spoilt with warm winters, but I am feeing the cold this year.
With the murray darling thing, IMO, it is mostly to do with the volume of farming along the basin. 54 years ago there weren’t 50,000+ large farms drawing water from it as there are today. Also, this flooding of the basin plus Lake Ayre from rains in northern NSW and Queensland is a once in 100 years event I believe. We haven’t seen much in the news about the waters return, I guess it’s not scary enough. “Stuff returning to normal, nothing to see here, move along” just dosen’t have enough punch.
What is extremely dangerous is we now have a new PM, Ms Gillard (Labor), who has publically stated that she “believes in climate change” and will work hard to “establish a community concensus on climate change” (Whatever THAT is). Labor and The Greens are pushing for a price on carbon, AU$23 too start with, which will cripple everyone (Who’s not in bed with Govn’t that is), to be setup ASAP after the election. With Ms Gillards perfromance to date, her Building the Education Revolution project and other total failures, and the fact she was one in cabinet who killed off KRudd747’s (Awww…I can still say this becasue he will enjoy taxpayer funded air travel for himself and wife for the rest of their natural lives) CPRS as it stood before all the political rubbish statred, I don’t hold up much hope Labor will win this timearound. But we’ll all find out pretty soon.
First rule of AGW scaremongering: Never let the facts get in the way of a good doomsday story.
Following up on my first post in “Waxman Malarkey 1”. I would point out how the wild life has adapted to drought in Australia over millennia. There was recently an article in the local press about the quantity of fish in the outback rivers since the recent floods.
It was pointed out in that article that the fish can survive for up to Thirty years buried in the dry river beds.
Humans have to adapt to Australia like the wild life has, then, we have only been here 222 years, and still expecting the climate to be as it was in Europe.
.
Good summary Willis, the facts are that southern Australia has been drying out for at least 5,000 years, see Catalyst ABC video or transcript below.
In the last 100 years Tasmania is the only state that has received less rainfall, but from a much higher base than other states.
Sure the SW of WA has had less rainfall but the rest of the state has had increased rainfall.
I hope Willis has the time to watch the video ( approx 10 mins) because it proves that the drying out of southern Australia could not have been caused by humans, because it started way before the Industrial Revolution.
http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1848641.htm
Townsville has just enjoyed 5 consecutive above average wet seasons, following on from 5 below average wets. So yes it is very ‘ up and down ‘. Also re the Murray-Darling, one wonders what the situation would be like had the Snowy Scheme not been built and nature allowed to take its course.
Waxman-Markey
http://globalwarming.house.gov/impactzones/australia
The average annual death toll from heat waves is over 1,100 people in Australia and that number only stands to increase.
Warmer and sicker? Global warming and human health
http://www.science.org.au/nova/081/081print.htm
This topic is sponsored by the Australian Greenhouse Office.
Without measures to mitigate the effects of extreme heat, and with an increase in the proportion of older people in the population, we might therefore expect higher death tolls in Australia’s future heatwaves. It is estimated that there are currently about 1100 heat-related deaths per year.
Wonderful language English… but translating from Australian English to American English can be difficult:
heat-related deaths…………. => death toll from heat waves
about 1100………………………. => over 1,100
It is estimated… per year… => The average annual
As for the science… don’t you just know you can trust the Australian Greenhouse Office to sponsor good factual reporting…..
Hmmm. It’s not like Australia has always had droughts and floods. I mean, there’s this recent puff-piece from some hack:
I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel-sea,
Her beauty and her terror –
The wide brown land for me!
– Dorothea Mackellar, 1907
Willis you amaze me every time, there you go quoting facts and truth against scaremongering. Where is your sense of proportion couldn’t you throw in a few dubious figures so that those guys on the scare side might come back with some dialogue. No wonder they won’t debate you.
Just watching the TV news and whether !
Victoria has just had its wettest June in 9 years.
Waxman-Markey
http://globalwarming.house.gov/impactzones/australia
The average annual death toll from heat waves is over 1,100 people in Australia and that number only stands to increase.
Warmer and sicker? Global warming and human health
http://www.science.org.au/nova/081/081print.htm
This topic is sponsored by the Australian Greenhouse Office.
Without measures to mitigate the effects of extreme heat, and with an increase in the proportion of older people in the population, we might therefore expect higher death tolls in Australia’s future heatwaves. It is estimated that there are currently about 1100 heat-related deaths per year.
Wonderful language English… but translating from Australian English to American English can be difficult:
heat-related deaths……….. => death toll from heat waves
about 1100…………………. => over 1,100
It is estimated… per year.. => The average annual
As for the science… don’t you just know you can trust the Australian Greenhouse Office to sponsor good factual reporting.
The unequivocal statement that the recent drought in SE Australia is the worst in a millennium is certainly not scientifically justified. Although I think we should give them the benefit of the doubt and assume it was an honest mistake – the difference between a historical reconstruction and a statistical return time is not immediately clear to everyone.
You have misinterpreted somewhat the first point quoted however. The article is stating that higher temperatures are exacerbating drought, not that global warming is necessarily changing rainfall patterns to increase the intensity/frequency of droughts. Attributing Australian rainfall trends in any region to the increase in temperatures is very difficult, and I don’t think anyone has been able to say much about it with too much certainty. However, saying that higher temperatures, and therefore more evaporation will make a drought worse than it otherwise was is not too much of a stretch. Although perhaps calling it a ‘major contributor’ is going too far.
I am off to the meeting shortly but a few comments.
Australia wide rainfall does not relate well to the MD Basin. A lot of that is tropical monsoon/cyclone activity. Fig 3 shows a reduction in flooding rainfall from nearly 800mm in the 1940’s to 400mm now. Yes, there has been increased extraction but our inland rivers are really river channels that may or may not contain water. If they do, and mimic NH rivers, well and good, we can continue with our European farming, if they dry out then alarmism prevails and the original inhabitants laugh.
Hope the meeting is civilised!
Nice Smile on the Grey Suit Man(n)!
One of the modus operandi of the AGW hysterics in the media or in politics is that they make alarming claims and predictions about place far far away.
The Grauniad, where you source some of you material above, has some great form lying about climate change and Australia. I blogged about one most outrageous incident last year. And the travesty in all this is that this “journalism” never gets corrected – even when you write a letter of complaint. I know, I did.
http://geckkosworld.blogspot.com/2009/09/rip-quality-journalism.html
http://geckkosworld.blogspot.com/2009/10/bottled-water-frenzy.html
People promoting global warming forget the Federation Drought of the 1890’s where farmers walked off the land because it was never going to rain again. Weather is great to lie about because most people only remember what it was like yesterday and if the MSM keep harping on about how hot it is, how dry it is now compared to last year or 10 years ago that is what they remember, not the facts.
How dry I am.
How wet I’ll be . . .
As a 3rd generation North Queenslander in his 70’s, I can assure the younger generation in Australia that the Murray River needs the North Queensland El Nino wet season rains, plus the agreement of the Qld. and the NSW farmers to stop excessively draining the system.
This does not mean that I agree with water being allowed to go to the sea from the mouth of the Murray,which is what some outspoken advocates in Adelaide would see as desirable. This pure QUEENSLAND water is too valuable to go into salt water in South Australia. I would rather that it be used to replenish the underground water reserves that have been pressed too hard over past years for stock supplies.