NOTE: There’s an error here. I misidentified the Laverton airport in the Google Earth Map. My bad. But I will say when I typed in Laverton Airport, thats what GE gave me. There are two Laverton Airports in Australia as it turns out.
Willis located the correct one and has a guest post on it here
That’s what I get for posting on the run and not having enough time. Thanks Willis – Anthony
Yesterday I visited Tasmania’s Hobart weather station and found it surrounded by buildings and a collection of air conditioners. Today we have a complaint about another BoM weather station from a working scientist.
The discontinuity with a step shown above is a bit of a puzzle. Perhaps the station was moved or the airport upgraded or both?
A letter below from Marc Hendrickx to Australia’s Peter Garrett MP Minister for Environmental Protection has some interesting points. Why does GISS tag this station as having a nearby population of 2.5 million when it clearly does not? See below:
Looking at the town and airport from the air, it is obvious the number is wrong:
The aerial photos at Google Earth are not of high enough quality to determine where the weather station actually is, and all of the lat/lon published at GISS and NCDC are very coarse. Perhaps somebody knows someone who lives in Laverton who can go to the airport and help us location the station.
Here’s the letter:
23 June 2010
Marc Hendrickx
Berowra Hts NSW 2082
Hon Peter Garrett MP
Minister for Environmental Protection, Heritage and the Arts
PO BOX 6022
House of Representatives
Parliament House
Canberra ACT 2600
RE: Urban Heat Island effect Laverton, Victoria
Dear Minister,
I was recently contacted by a senior member of Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) staff Dr
David Jones in regard to a comment I published in the Journal Biology Letters1. My comment discussed problems with an earlier publication2 that claimed a link between changes in butterfly emergence times and dangerous man made global warming around the Melbourne area. Dr Jones is the head of BOM’s Climate Monitoring and prediction unit within the National Climate Centre. I am a working geologist with a MPhil and a PhD candidate at the University of Newcastle.
Dr Jones inquiries were restricted to discussion of the quality of weather station data used in the emergence study and my comment in which I called the quality of this data into question. In particular Dr Jones was concerned with assertions that BOM weather station Laverton (ID 87031) was potentially affected by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. This effect has a significant impact on temperature and is derived from man-made changes in the energy balance in urban centres, to the point where sites that are affected are not useful for monitoring climate unless they are adjusted. The bias arises as a direct result of two different but associated processes. The first involves direct heating of the air surrounding an instrument from vehicle emissions, air-conditioning, industry etc. The second involves land surface changes that include changes over time due to human influence in albedo (change in vegetation for instance), thermal aerodynamic properties (buildings that change air flow around a site), hydrology (affects evaporation) and morphology of the surface.
BOM currently regards Laverton as a “High Quality” site and uses it as part of its climate
monitoring network. BOM currently does not adjust station records at Laverton for UHI.
The population around the Laverton station has changed significantly since the station was first opened. ABS statistics indicate a population increase from 7853 in 1933 to over 132,000 in 2008. It is also clear from aerial photographs that there has been significant urban development around the station since its inception, with significant growth in residential development over the last three decades.
In the course of my correspondence with Dr Jones it has become clear that no measurement has been made of the potential affect of UHI on Laverton’s temperature data. A study published in the Australian Meteorological Magazine3 used as evidence by Dr Jones merely assumed the station was “rural” but provided no proof to support this. Contradicting Dr Jones claims this study states: “It is possible that the measured Melbourne UHI is a slight underestimate, as measurements across the Urban-rural boundary were not continued far into the rural area.” I understand from Dr Jones that Laverton occurs near the end of the transect used in the study and hence lies inside the urban side of this boundary.
Additionally this study determined a quantitative relationship between UHI and population for south east Australia. Using the equation furnished in this paper and ABS statistics, the UHI at Laverton can be calculated at 5.18 degrees over and above rural temperatures. Clearly on this basis Laverton cannot be considered a ‘rural’ site.
An additional study4 quoted by both Dr Jones and myself used Laverton as a “proxy” for
rural conditions. This study states (p.1933-1934). “Using the mean value from these three
airport monitoring stations (includes Laverton 87031) has probably resulted in a slight
underestimation of the UHI magnitude because of their proximity to the CBD, and urban
modified surfaces such as buildings and roads/runways, along with the heat output from
anthropogenic activities”. The study does not attempt to quantify the effect. Dr Jones claims this study supports his assertion that Laverton is unaffected by UHI. It clearly does no such thing; it clearly implies the stations are indeed affected. It does not support Dr Jones’ claims.
The US and IPCC rely on NASA GISTEMP as one of its primary sources of world
temperature data. In contradiction to Dr Jones claims that Laverton is “rural” this premier
climate agency regards Laverton as an urban site with a population of 2.7 million for climate monitoring purposes5. In our discussion Dr Jones appeared unaware of this fact and suggested I contact NASA to determine why this might be the case. I find it astonishing that the head of BOM’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction unit would not be aware that NASA considers the Laverton site as urban for climate monitoring purposes. Even more astonishing is that on being informed of this he appears dis-interested in following this up further on behalf of the BOM, stating “I suggest you contact NASA GISS as to why they define a particular station as urban”. I would have thought this would have been a primary responsibility of Dr Jones and of the BOM. I would be happy to follow this up on BOM’s behalf in return for a fee for professional services.
Based on the evidence it is clear that Laverton experiences some UHI affect. In our
correspondence, Dr Jones moves from an early position of “no effect” to admitting the effect is “small”. However Dr Jones is not able to provide any supporting references or data to demonstrate how “small” this might be. It could in fact be quite significant. This is
remarkable given the importance of Laverton to BOM’s network of High Quality stations.
Based on correspondence with Dr Jones and the available published science literature it is
clear that BOM simply does not know how much UHI affects temperature at Laverton. I find this of great concern given the site is used as part of BOM’s climate monitoring network. A UHI of just 0.1 degree per decade at Laverton would significantly affect the station’s influence on regional trends. Indeed a UHI of just 0.1 degree per decade would mean Laverton would no longer be considered a “High Quality” site, ruling out its use for climate monitoring purposes.
Clearly further work is required to quantify the potential affect of UHI on temperature
measurements at Laverton. Indeed Dr Jones appears to agree stating “this strike (sic) me as a research project and not an operational activity – perhaps a nice Honours project.”
While this issue may seem a mute point, a disagreement between scientists, of little interest to you as the responsible Minister, I think you would agree that ensuring the accuracy of Australia’s network of meteorological instrumentation is of critical importance. If there are problems with BOM’s climate network it casts significant doubt on the ability of politicians to make responsible policy decisions. The apparent dis-interest in the issue shown by BOM is of concern and I bring it to your attention. As the Minister responsible, I request that you investigate further the issue of UHI at this key monitoring station. What is the affect of UHI on Laverton, and what is the impact of UHI on this key climate monitoring site?
A complete transcript of the email correspondence between Dr Jones and myself is available at your request, should you require it.
Yours faithfully
Marc Hendrickx
CC Greg Ayers Director of Meteorology
Opposition Spokesperson Hon Greg Hunt MP Media
1 http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/early/2010/06/07/rsbl.2010.0053.short/reply#roybiolett_el_31
2 http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/early/2010/06/07/rsbl.2010.0053.abstract
3 Torok SJ, Morris CJG, Skinner C and Plummer N., 2001. Urban heat island features of SE Australian Towns.
Australian Meteorological Magazine 50, 1-13.
4 Morris CLG and Simmonds I., 2000. Associations between varying magnitudes of the urban heat island and
the synoptic climatology in Melbourne, Australia. International Journal of Climatology 20: 1931-1954
5 GISTEMP 2010. NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis – Station Data ‘Laverton’
GISTEMP ID 501948650000 (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgibin/
gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=501948650000&data_set=0&num_neighbors=1)
(accessed 18 March 2010).
Marc Hendrickx
25 Holliday Ave
Berowra Hts NSW 2082
0406320248
marchgeo@gmail.com
Hon Peter Garrett MP
Minister for Environmental Protection, Heritage and the Arts
PO BOX 6022
House of Representatives
Parliament House
Canberra ACT 2600
RE: Urban Heat Island effect Laverton, Victoria
Dear Minister,
I was recently contacted by a senior member of Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) staff Dr
David Jones in regard to a comment I published in the Journal Biology Letters1. My comment
discussed problems with an earlier publication2 that claimed a link between changes in
butterfly emergence times and dangerous man made global warming around the Melbourne
area. Dr Jones is the head of BOM’s Climate Monitoring and prediction unit within the
National Climate Centre. I am a working geologist with a MPhil and a PhD candidate at the
University of Newcastle.
Dr Jones inquiries were restricted to discussion of the quality of weather station data used in
the emergence study and my comment in which I called the quality of this data into question.
In particular Dr Jones was concerned with assertions that BOM weather station Laverton (ID
87031) was potentially affected by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. This effect has a
significant impact on temperature and is derived from man-made changes in the energy
balance in urban centres, to the point where sites that are affected are not useful for
monitoring climate unless they are adjusted. The bias arises as a direct result of two different
but associated processes. The first involves direct heating of the air surrounding an
instrument from vehicle emissions, air-conditioning, industry etc. The second involves land
surface changes that include changes over time due to human influence in albedo (change in
vegetation for instance), thermal aerodynamic properties (buildings that change air flow
around a site), hydrology (affects evaporation) and morphology of the surface.
BOM currently regards Laverton as a “High Quality” site and uses it as part of its climate
monitoring network. BOM currently does not adjust station records at Laverton for UHI. The
population around the Laverton station has changed significantly since the station was first
opened. ABS statistics indicate a population increase from 7853 in 1933 to over 132,000 in
1 http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/early/2010/06/07/rsbl.2010.0053.short/reply#roybiolett_el_31
2 http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/early/2010/06/07/rsbl.2010.0053.abstract
2008. It is also clear from aerial photographs that there has been significant urban
development around the station since its inception, with significant growth in residential
development over the last three decades.
In the course of my correspondence with Dr Jones it has become clear that no measurement
has been made of the potential affect of UHI on Laverton’s temperature data. A study
published in the Australian Meteorological Magazine3 used as evidence by Dr Jones merely
assumed the station was “rural” but provided no proof to support this. Contradicting Dr Jones
claims this study states: “It is possible that the measured Melbourne UHI is a slight
underestimate, as measurements across the Urban-rural boundary were not continued far into
the rural area.” I understand from Dr Jones that Laverton occurs near the end of the transect
used in the study and hence lies inside the urban side of this boundary. Additionally this
study determined a quantitative relationship between UHI and population for south east
Australia. Using the equation furnished in this paper and ABS statistics, the UHI at Laverton
can be calculated at 5.18 degrees over and above rural temperatures. Clearly on this basis
Laverton cannot be considered a ‘rural’ site.
An additional study4 quoted by both Dr Jones and myself used Laverton as a “proxy” for
rural conditions. This study states (p.1933-1934). “Using the mean value from these three
airport monitoring stations (includes Laverton 87031) has probably resulted in a slight
underestimation of the UHI magnitude because of their proximity to the CBD, and urban
modified surfaces such as buildings and roads/runways, along with the heat output from
anthropogenic activities”. The study does not attempt to quantify the effect. Dr Jones claims
this study supports his assertion that Laverton is unaffected by UHI. It clearly does no such
thing; it clearly implies the stations are indeed affected. It does not support Dr Jones’ claims.
The US and IPCC rely on NASA GISTEMP as one of its primary sources of world
temperature data. In contradiction to Dr Jones claims that Laverton is “rural” this premier
climate agency regards Laverton as an urban site with a population of 2.7 million for climate
monitoring purposes5. In our discussion Dr Jones appeared unaware of this fact and suggested
I contact NASA to determine why this might be the case. I find it astonishing that the head of
BOM’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction unit would not be aware that NASA considers the
Laverton site as urban for climate monitoring purposes. Even more astonishing is that on
being informed of this he appears dis-interested in following this up further on behalf of the
BOM, stating “I suggest you contact NASA GISS as to why they define a particular station as
urban”. I would have thought this would have been a primary responsibility of Dr Jones and
of the BOM. I would be happy to follow this up on BOM’s behalf in return for a fee for
professional services.
3 Torok SJ, Morris CJG, Skinner C and Plummer N., 2001. Urban heat island features of SE Australian Towns.
Australian Meteorological Magazine 50, 1-13.
4 Morris CLG and Simmonds I., 2000. Associations between varying magnitudes of the urban heat island and
the synoptic climatology in Melbourne, Australia. International Journal of Climatology 20: 1931-1954
5 GISTEMP 2010. NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis – Station Data ‘Laverton’
GISTEMP ID 501948650000 (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgibin/
gistemp/gistemp_station.py?id=501948650000&data_set=0&num_neighbors=1)
(accessed 18 March 2010).
Based on the evidence it is clear that Laverton experiences some UHI affect. In our
correspondence, Dr Jones moves from an early position of “no effect” to admitting the effect
is “small”. However Dr Jones is not able to provide any supporting references or data to
demonstrate how “small” this might be. It could in fact be quite significant. This is
remarkable given the importance of Laverton to BOM’s network of High Quality stations.
Based on correspondence with Dr Jones and the available published science literature it is
clear that BOM simply does not know how much UHI affects temperature at Laverton. I find
this of great concern given the site is used as part of BOM’s climate monitoring network. A
UHI of just 0.1 degree per decade at Laverton would significantly affect the station’s
influence on regional trends. Indeed a UHI of just 0.1 degree per decade would mean
Laverton would no longer be considered a “High Quality” site, ruling out its use for climate
monitoring purposes.
Clearly further work is required to quantify the potential affect of UHI on temperature
measurements at Laverton. Indeed Dr Jones appears to agree stating “this strike (sic) me as a
research project and not an operational activity – perhaps a nice Honours project.”
While this issue may seem a mute point, a disagreement between scientists, of little interest to
you as the responsible Minister, I think you would agree that ensuring the accuracy of
Australia’s network of meteorological instrumentation is of critical importance. If there are
problems with BOM’s climate network it casts significant doubt on the ability of politicians
to make responsible policy decisions. The apparent dis-interest in the issue shown by BOM is
of concern and I bring it to your attention. As the Minister responsible, I request that you
investigate further the issue of UHI at this key monitoring station. What is the affect of UHI
on Laverton, and what is the impact of UHI on this key climate monitoring site?
A complete transcript of the email correspondence between Dr Jones and myself is available
at your request, should you require it.
Yours faithfully
Marc Hendrickx
CC Greg Ayers Director of Meteorology
Opposition Spokesperson Hon Greg Hunt MP
Media
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
That photo is Laverton WA the letter talks about Laverton Vic which is has gone from farm land to hevey industrial.
The picture in the article is not the right Airport. Laverton Airport is at 37° 51′ 46.98 S 144° 44′ 47.66′ E. The Google image is pretty good, but I have not spotted a weather station yet.
Laverton Aero is the ex RAAF airbase in Victoria – 20 odd kilometres west of Melbourne. (-37.862003,144.747956)
It is surrounded by housing and population. 25 years ago it was a rural setting with few houses. Now it is a suburb of Melbourne – U.H.I. anyone?
Laverton AWS is a small town in Western Australia. (28.6 S 122.4 E)
Looks like some sort of mixup here.
Wikipedia shows the population of Laverton, WA, Australia as 316 for the 2006 census.
Also note that the Laverton Aero, NSW, is supposedly located across the continent, and not in WA, but NSW.
Laverton, Victoria is on the western edge of Melbourne, in a relatively densely populated area. As Scott said, it seems you’re looking at Laverton, Western Australia. The GISS location names are the same, but the lat/long information is significantly different. Type the lat/longs into Google Earth and you’ll be taken to both Lavertons pretty quickly.
Anthony, I think there has been a stuff up here.
Laverton, Western Australia, shown in the Google Earth pic is at 28-37south, 122-24 east. But 2,200kms to the east is another Laverton, Victoria, almost in Melbourne, at 37-52 South, 144-45 East.
Looking at the GISS table you posted up, the “?” and arrow point to the station in Melbourne where the population is possibly correct.
Am I missing something ???
Hope you are enjoying Australia, keep up the great work !!
.
Anthony here is the location of the Laverton Victoia, weather station -37.856607,144.756696 but the Google pictures are a somewhat out of date. More urban development has taken place since.
Anthony, thanks for the post but the photo shows the town of Laverton in West Australia. The Laverton of concern is in Victoria, on the eastern side other side of the continent, about 17 km SW of Melbourne’ CBD.
The correct Lat/Long is: 37.9 S 144.7 E.
Cheers
Marc
Here is the Google Map for Laverton, Victoria
H/T Wally
[googlemaps http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=37%C2%B0+51%E2%80%B2+46.98S+144%C2%B0+44%E2%80%B2+47.66E&sll=-38.68551,144.84375&sspn=3.833356,6.932373&ie=UTF8&ll=-37.861915,144.746892&spn=0.121158,0.216637&t=h&z=12&output=embed&w=425&h=350%5D
The met station at Laverton Aerodrome appears to be located at: S 37.856493°, E 144.756620°. It appears to be surrounded by grass land for some hundreds of meters.
hmm, so we’re measuring something somewhere and it’s counting towards our global temp. 😐 We’re failing in both accuracy and precision! This should be shocking…..but its not.
The big news about weather in Oz, is the political climate under today’s new PM. Julia Gillard’s ascendancy to power has been established by the very same people that pushed Rudd into abandoning the ETS (emissions trading). Will the ETS stay dead ?
I was recently at Cape Willoughby on Kangaroo Island, south of Adelaide. There are no air conditioners or population centres nearby. I think it would make an excellent temperature reference if you can get the raw temperature measurements for it. I can send photos of it if you like.
Anyone done a SIMPLE statistical analysis of this data?
Number of S.D.’s ANYONE?
I highly DOUBT that with the number that would come forth as the Standard Deviation for this station, there would be ANY STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE (BOGUS..WORTHLESS..IDIOTIC…without Relative Humidity…) “Average Temperature” during the observation time cited.
I know I’m beginning to sound like an “Old Testament” or Biblical prophet, but I feel that way. “Repent! Confess your statistical and mathematical SINS! Turn away!”
Well done Marc!
I’ll be checking Laverton and other Vic sites in a couple of days- first I’ve got to get Tasmania up.
Ken
Link to photo showing station location for Laverton, Victoria here:
http://abcnewswatch.blogspot.com/2010/06/missing-news-urban-heat-island-effect.html
Rudd out!
Thank you for providing some alternative data to the AGW/CC nonsense that we are presently having to endure down under. The hype is still mass produced here, and is quite relentless.
Kids shows, evening shows, and the news continue to have advertisements for “how you can prevent climate change”. Coming from the North western US where we just had our coldest and snowiest winter in a very long time, this kind of nonsense is hard to stomach. But it is relentless.
This link to Andrew Bolt’s Blogg (21/3/2010) may be of use as it shows some aerial photos of Laverton today and in 1946
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/could_more_concrete_asphalt_and_industry_have_made_laverton_warmer/
He has an update reference to this 16th June 2010
I thought this might be a good place for this gem from Pres. D. Eisenhower’s farewell address. He was a forward thinking man who is the most prescient and under-appreciated of all the presidents, IMHO:
Akin to, and largely responsible for the sweeping changes in our industrial-military posture, has been the technological revolution during recent decades.
In this revolution, research has become central; it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.
Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.
The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present
— and is gravely to be regarded.
Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.
Cool stuff, eh?
37.8565°S 144.7566°E
Shows the Laverton RAF Weather station site on google earth, it looks good, apart from the build up of houses to the west/south and east of the aerodrome.
Here’s the weather station in Bing maps.
http://www.bing.com/maps/?v=2&cp=8pqjg8x1wr87&scene=43501534&lvl=2&sty=b&cid=AEAAAD3B1B16A4C7!167
has anyone posted this?
23 June: NYT: Elisabeth Rosenthal: A Winsome Climate Panel Presents Its New Cast
Embarking on a bit of a charm offensive, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change just released the names of more than 800 scientists who have been selected to take part in writing its fifth assessment report on climate change, due out in 2014. ..
Some 3,000 scientists were nominated to fill the positions, mostly by national committees. The panel did not say what criteria were used to whittle the number to 831.
The full list of authors (links are here) includes some interesting newcomers to the panel’s process, like Daniel Nepstad of the Woods Hole Research Center, who was quoted in a Times article last year about Amazon deforestation, and Julian Allwood of Cambridge University, whom we interviewed about sustainable clothing.
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/23/a-winsome-climate-panel-presents-its-new-cast/
Rosenthal thinks developing countries feel “climate change” before the rest of the planet – LOL: “This time, far more representatives are included from developing nations, which are likely to feel the earliest effects of climate change..”
funny how the 800+ are trotted out hot on the heels of the “black list” nonsense.
Warren,
The actual siting is not the main issue. Although I don’t know how long the station has been at that particular site (I have sent BOM some hard earned dollars to get a copy of the station meta-data file, that should provide more information on the history). Of concern is the encroaching residential and industrial development and the fact that this station is just 17 kms from Melbourne’s CBD. In terms of population changes around the station I have posted a graph showing this at ABC NEWS WATCH. The Laverton area had a population increase from 7853 in 1933 to over 132,000 in 2008. The population doubled from 1990 to 2008.
Population and temp graphs:
http://abcnewswatch.blogspot.com/2010/06/missing-news-urban-heat-island-effect.html
As much as people are so stupid that they do not remember what happened Two months ago, people are still so stupid as to what it will be like Two months from now.
It will be near September and the evidence of leaves turning color for the Autumn will be in view. The kids will be getting ready for school again and soon thereafter the pumpkins will be covered with frost in October.
Please don’t lose site of the season you are in the world.