There’s been a lot of worry and speculation over what will happen if a hurricane and the gulf oil spill collide. In response, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has prepared a document answering some of the questions. There’s of course, a lot of uncertainty too.
What will happen to a hurricane that runs through this oil slick?
• Most hurricanes span an enormous area of the ocean (200-300 miles) — far wider than the current size of the spill.
• If the slick remains small in comparison to a typical hurricane’s general environment and size, the anticipated impact on the hurricane would be minimal.
• The oil is not expected to appreciably affect either the intensity or the track of a fully developed tropical storm or hurricane.
• The oil slick would have little effect on the storm surge or near-shore wave heights.
What will the hurricane do to the oil slick in the Gulf?
• The high winds and seas will mix and “weather” the oil which can help accelerate the biodegradation process.
• The high winds may distribute oil over a wider area, but it is difficult to model exactly where the oil may be transported.
• Movement of oil would depend greatly on the track of the hurricane.
• Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but also from other oil releases that may occur during the storm.
• A hurricane’s winds rotate counter-clockwise.
Thus, in VERY GENERAL TERMS:
- A hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick could drive oil to the coast.
- A hurricane passing to the east of the slick could drive the oil away from the coast.
- However, the details of the evolution of the storm, the track, the wind speed, the size, the forward motion and the intensity are all unknowns at this point and may alter this general statement.
Will the oil slick help or hurt a storm from developing in the Gulf?
• Evaporation from the sea surface fuels tropical storms and hurricanes. Over relatively calm water (such as for a developing tropical depression or disturbance), in theory, an oil slick could suppress evaporation if the layer is thick enough, by not allowing contact of the water to the air.
• With less evaporation one might assume there would be less moisture available to fuel the hurricane and thus reduce its strength.
• However, except for immediately near the source, the slick is very patchy. At moderate wind speeds, such as those found in approaching tropical storms and hurricanes, a thin layer of oil such as is the case with the current slick (except in very limited areas near the well) would likely break into pools on the surface or mix as drops in the upper layers of the ocean. (The heaviest surface slicks, however, could re-coalesce at the surface after\ the storm passes.)
• This would allow much of the water to remain in touch with the overlying air and greatly reduce any effect the oil may have on evaporation.
• Therefore, the oil slick is not likely to have a significant impact on the hurricane.
Will the hurricane pull up the oil that is below the surface of the Gulf?
• All of the sampling to date shows that except near the leaking well, the subsurface dispersed oil is in parts per million levels or less. The hurricane will mix the waters of the Gulf and disperse the oil even further. Have we had experience in the past with hurricanes and oil spills?
• Yes, but our experience has been primarily with oil spills that occurred because of the storm, not from an existing oil slick and an ongoing release of oil from the seafloor.
• The experience from hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) was that oil released during the storms became very widely dispersed.
• Dozens of significant spills and hundreds of smaller spills occurred from offshore facilities, shoreside facilities, vessel sinkings, etc.
Will there be oil in the rain related to a hurricane?
• No. Hurricanes draw water vapor from a large area, much larger than the area covered by oil, and rain is produced in clouds circulating the hurricane.
Learn more about NOAA’s response to the BP oil spill at http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/
deepwaterhorizon.
Document available in PDF form here.
developing in the Gulf?
• Evaporation from the sea surface fuels tropical
storms and hurricanes. Over relatively calm water
(such as for a developing tropical depression or
disturbance), in theory, an oil slick could suppress
evaporation if the layer is thick enough, by not
allowing contact of the water to the air.
• With less evaporation one might assume there
would be less moisture available to fuel the
hurricane and thus reduce its strength.
• However, except for immediately near the source,
the slick is very patchy. At moderate wind speeds,
such as those found in approaching tropical
storms and hurricanes, a thin layer of oil such as
is the case with the current slick (except in very
limited areas near the well) would likely break into
pools on the surface or mix as drops in the upper
layers of the ocean. (The heaviest surface slicks,
however, could re-coalesce at the surface after the
storm passes.)
• This would allow much of the water to remain in
touch with the overlying air and greatly reduce
any effect the oil may have on evaporation.
• Therefore, the oil slick is not likely to have a
significant impact on the hurricane.
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Will there be oil in the rain related to a hurricane?
Stupidest question.
Well done for getting this in first,before the syncretists of the AGW movement get their mitts on the data and destroy it.
My experience in south Texas is that hurricanes disperse and/or bury oil already on the beach. Tar balls are common on Galveston Island beaches but less so after a storm. The Marshes should fare the same way. If anything, hurricanes have a tendency to leave beaches cleaner than they found them.
This consideration of the possibility of a single hurricane is much better than mainstream media coverage which was treating the spill as if it was a Gulf-covering effect which was going to be permanent.
It would be something of a miracle if a Hurricane eats the oil.
“From whence they thought comes famine, comes relief:
The eyes of the Sea are like a greedy dog’s,
One eye is for oil, the other is for wheat”
Can a Hurricane do that?
There are (and have always been) natural oil leaks from the bottom of most seas. Can anyone give an estimate of the global volume of natural oil leakage, compared to the man-made leakage in the Gulf of Mexico? It would be interesting to get a perspective on this.
I’ve had a brilliant solution to this oil well problem…………..
Build a dike from Florida to South Ameria.
Pump out all the water and allow the oil well to fill the the entire gulf of Mexico, creatinging a giant lake of oil.
Set up refineries all along the gulf coast states.
Our imported middle eastern oil problem is solved.
What’d ya think?
The mainstream media keep drumming the fact that this is the “largest oceanic oil spill in U.S. history”. However, there was a 3.4 million barrel spill lasting 9 months, also in the Gulf of Mexico, in 1979 through 1980. That’s about 5 times bigger than this spill (so far).
I don’t remember it making the national U.S. news at all, even though it was just across the Gulf.
What’s up with THAT??
A hurrican would probably be of benefit, by mixing the oil it will break down faster through biological digestion, plus wind will help remove and break it down further. Oil in small amounts is better than concentrated and remember:
Dillution is the solution to pollution!
This article is from 1991. Sorry, I couldn’t locate any full text articles from 1979/80 about the Ixtoc spill of 3.3 million bbl into the Gulf of Mexico, however it is briefly mentioned here.
Biggest oil spill tackled in gulf amid war, soft market. (News).
The Oil and Gas Journal 89.n5 (Feb 4, 1991): pp12(5). (4977 words)
COPYRIGHT PennWell Publishing Co. 1991
Industry is scrambling to cope with history’s biggest oil spill against the backdrop of a Persian Gulf war and a softening oil market.
U.S. and Saudi Arabian officials accused Iraq of unleashing an oil spill of about 11 million bbl into the Persian Gulf off Kuwait last week by releasing crude from the giant Sea Island tanker loading terminal at Mina al Ahmadi.
Smart bombs delivered by U.S. aircraft hit two onshore tank farm manifold stations, cutting off the terminal’s source of oil flow Jan. 26. A small volume of oil was still leaking from 13 mile feeder pipelines to the terminal at presstime.
[snip]
Spill’s scope
The exact size of the slick is uncertain because there is no accurate estimate of how long Iraq had been discharging oil into the gulf from the Sea Island terminal before the slick was spotted by allied forces arrayed against Iraq.
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Hisham Nazer said at its height the slick was 30 miles long and contained about 11 million bbl of oil.
Industry sources in Europe agree that the gulf spill is the biggest ever seen, and some contend it has the potential to damage the environment to a greater degree than any previous spill.
Previously, the largest oil spill on record occurred during June 1979-March 1980, when a well blowout on Mexico’s 1 Ixtoc platform dumped 3.3 million bbl of crude into the Gulf of Mexico.
“Most hurricanes span an enormous area of the ocean (200-300 miles) — far wider than the current size of the spill.”
Apparently the NHC hasn’t been reading our discussion of dimensional analysis recently. Area in terms of miles instead of square miles? I think what they were trying to convey was the width of a hurricane (200-300 miles is okay, but I think that’s for the reach of tropical storm force winds, not hurricane force winds except in very broad storms). The area affected is the width times the distance traveled, with adjustments for sharp bends and loops.
The area of the eye of a hurricane can be 200-300 square miles. (Not 200-300 miles square!)
Every time I have ever gone swimming in Galveston, I have come out covered with oil. It is part of the experience.
Considering the leak may continue until August…. who can say?
Hope I’m wrong, but the way things are going (nothing is working), the explosion seal must be starting to look like an option.
I’ll bet the oil industry wishes they had a science that was “settled”.
Jack – “The amount of natural crude-oil seepage is currently estimated to be 600,000 metric tons per year, with a range of uncertainty of 200,000 to 2,000,000 metric tons per year.”
That’s quite a range.
@Jack Maloney. Natural oil seeps are very common in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of California. For that matter, a famous one is on shore in La Brea, CA.
There are an estimated 600 natural seeps in the Gulf. They are the single largest source of oil in Gulf waters and account for about 60% of the oil released by all causes in North America.
The NAS estimated that 980,000 bbls, roughly a million barrels, leaks into the Gulf every year. The BP spill so far, assuming 20,000 bbls per day, is 800,000 bbls. Ixtoc I, the Pemex spill in 1979 that went on for nine months (in decreasing amounts) spilled about 3.5 million bbls.
Wikipedia has a table of accidental spills worldwide.
Does the government still have a lot of eggs in storage.
We could make mayonnaise.
Having sailed in winds over 80 miles per hour, wind picks up water and the waves stop. It turns into blowing foam. This particular water wouldn’t blow inland 5 miles. The surge can go inland and the fast heavy flow back of water is a gully washing oil remover. Having also sailed into water spouts, the updraft would lift oil.
Ric Werme says:{May 30, 2010 at 6:04 pm} quoting: “Most hurricanes span an enormous area of the ocean (200-300 miles) — far wider than the current size of the spill.”
Ric says:
Apparently the NHC hasn’t been reading our discussion of dimensional analysis recently. Area in terms of miles instead of square miles? I think what they were trying to convey was the width of a hurricane (200-300 miles is okay, but I think that’s for the reach of tropical storm force winds, not hurricane force winds except in very broad storms)….”
I think the use of the word “spans” makes it quite clear. They are talking about the width. And of course they were speaking to the width of the entire storm, including the reach of the tropical storm force winds because they are part of the same storm. I am glad they did put into perspective by saying a hurricane was “far wider than the current size of the spill.”
Found a useful map to show the relative size of the oil. Zoom out for perspective.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/GulfOilSpill.aspx
Anthony,
One of the issues I have seen posed is would an oil slick create a larger albedo on the surface, warming the water and therefore intensifying storms in the gulf? I understand that the Gulf was trending warmer prior to the spill regardless. My question is would the oil slick warm the gulf enough to intensify storms at all or is it to small/spotty for it to make any difference?
At least the oil slick won’t reach Australia. [Trying hard to not be O/T here.☺]
#
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Brute says:
May 30, 2010 at 5:23 pm
I’ve had a brilliant solution to this oil well problem…………..
Build a dike from Florida to South Ameria.
Pump out all the water and allow the oil well to fill the the entire gulf of Mexico, creatinging a giant lake of oil….
__________________________________________________________________
ROTFLMAO Gee Brute, are you a reformed Climate Scientist?
Gail,
Nope, I’m an engineer.
Something wrong with my solution? (beside spelling “creating” incorrectly).
Seriously, it’s better than any of the solutions the “brain trust” at the White House or BP have come up with…………….(has to do with my contrarian personality I suppose).
I’m a “glass half full” kinda guy……………….I try to think outside of the box………
Seems fairly balanced
Dr. Jeff Masters’ perspective on the spills effects from Wunderground:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1492