You gotta love it when the Earth gives back the love, especially today.
Those who have been following NSIDC and JAXA sea ice plots have noted that this has been an extraordinary year so far, with Arctic sea ice hitting the “normal” line on some datasets. Today the Earth gave back more for us.
As of today, JAXA shows that we have more ice than any time on this date for the past 8 years of Aqua satellite measurement for this AMSRE dataset. Yes, it isn’t much, but if this were September, and the sea ice minimum was down by this much compared to all other years, you can bet your sweet bippy we’d see it screamed in news headlines worldwide.
Of course some will argue that it “doesn’t matter” in the context of trend, or that it’s just a “weather” blip. Let us remind our friends of such blips the next time a heat wave or a storm is cited as proof of global warming.
What can be said about the short term trend in Arctic sea ice is that for the past two years, it has recovered from the historic low of 2007. It recovered in 2008, and more in 2009. If today’s Earth Day gift is any indication, it appears that it is on track now for a third year of recovery in 2010 as we’ve been saying at WUWT since fall of 2009.
I’d show NSIDC’s current Arctic Sea Ice graph also, but their website was down earlier today, and the current sea ice graph is not updated. But Steve Goddard has made some comparison overlays that are interesting.
He writes via email:
NSIDC’s web site is down today, but I overlaid DMI on top of the NSIDC graph and it should have hit the mean line today. Same story for JAXA. Images are below.
DMI uses 30% concentration, so their scale is lower than NSIDC and JAXA at 15%. I shifted the DMI data upwards and stretched vertically to visually match the NISDC data.
The second image is JAXA, DMI and NSIDC together. JAXA also needed to be shifted vertically as they apparently use a different algorithm for calculating extent than NSIDC. All three track each other fairly closely during the spring, DMI diverges from the others during the fall freeze up – probably because of the higher concentration requirements.
Blue is NSIDC. Green is JAXA. Black is DMI. The thick black line is the NSIDC mean. The dashed line is the 2007 historic low.
ADDED: Here is a wider view that shows that the three time series match closely over the interval of the NSIDC graph
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Happy Earth Day everybody!
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This is a non-issue and no victory but I understand why you have posted it.
You are giving the finger pointers more things to point at.
I wish good science was good enough.
Not only a good present for Earth Day but a nice way to celebrate Lenin’s birthday.
I’m sure the polar bears are partying down!
Earth Day – Lenin’s Birthday – which tells us something of what this is all about.
I am not sure Trotsky would have “picked” the Ice Story as a birthday present for him though.
Yay! Earth Day was a stunning success, the Arctic is recovering, the planet has been saved!
Okay, job’s done, everyone can go home. You too, Greenpeace, move along now.
The sun back to quiet times and the Nina coming back. Bad forecast for next november’s carnal pleasures climate jamboree.
Well I just posted the same observation down on another thread; what a great way to celebrate Comrade Lenin’s birthday.
But considering the September minimum of 2007; by all accounts it was a freak event where a storm blew all that ice out of the Arctic ocean to where it could readily melt leaving an anomalous great void in the Arctic Ocean. If the absorbed solar insolation in all that open water resulted in a bit of a warming surface, that could have slowed the regrowth; but once it started, my recollection was that the regrowth rate was very rapid in 2008.
So is it reasonable to argue that 2008/2009, were just a retrace to a more normal condition that the freak 2007 event upset, and possibly, depending what happens this september; we might start to see what the longer term trend really is; and if I follow, what a lot of folks post here; that might include some coninuation of what has been recent thinning, and lessenign of multi-year ice.
Earth Day!, green policies, fight against natural polution, at the cost of changing it to lost of freedom, end of democracy and welcoming a brave new world government. Bravo!, what a big deal: Political pollution in exchange of natural pollution.
Not according to NASA!
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/?src=eorss-ann
Cloud10
“I am not sure Trotsky would have “picked” the Ice Story as a birthday present for him though.”
Oh, very droll!
What? No tipping point?
“Of course some will argue that it “doesn’t matter”
So a 75 day 1,500,000 square kilometer average 9 year record low in 2007 means something significant in the history of the planet but a 21 day 2,000,000 square kilometer 9 year record high in 2010 is not-significant.
A three year down tend for 2004 to 2007 (net loss about 1,200,000 square kilometers) means something significant in the history of the planet but a 2 year upward trend for 2007 – 2009 (net gain of 1,200,000 square kilometers, (same as the loss but in less time)) is not-significant.
Cherry picking is where people take a small amount of data from 2007 and use a 10 year old 30 year average that fits their argument, use it like it means something significant.
Nice to look at the conditions from satellite
http://ice-map.appspot.com/
I did not know U.S. Senator Gaylord Nelson was a commie though…
Climate scientist sues newspaper for ‘poisoning’ global warming debate
Climate modeller Andrew Weaver launches libel action in Canada for publishing ‘grossly irresponsible falsehoods’
One of the world’s leading climate scientists has launched a libel lawsuit against a Canadian newspaper for publishing articles that he says “poison” the debate on global warming.
In a case with potentially huge consequences for online publishers, lawyers acting for Andrew Weaver, a climate modeller at the University of Victoria, Canada, have demanded the National Post removes the articles not only from its own websites, but also from the numerous blogs and sites where they were reposted.
“that this has been an extraordinary year so far, with Arctic sea ice hitting the ‘normal’ line”
Seems like an oxymoron to me…extraordinary by being normal? I guess Katrina et al were extraordinary/normal storms, so this fits in with typical climate commentary. Of course, avid warmists probably do consider it extraordinary given that the Arctic is supposed to be ice-free here in 3+ years.
One thing that might be extraordinary in regards to this is the lateness of the Arctic ice peak.
-Scott
Climate scientist sues newspaper for ‘poisoning’ global warming debate
Climate modeller Andrew Weaver launches libel action in Canada for publishing ‘grossly irresponsible falsehoods’
One of the world’s leading climate scientists has launched a libel lawsuit against a Canadian newspaper for publishing articles that he says “poison” the debate on global warming.
In a case with potentially huge consequences for online publishers, lawyers acting for Andrew Weaver, a climate modeller at the University of Victoria, Canada, have demanded the National Post removes the articles not only from its own websites, but also from the numerous blogs and sites where they were reposted.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/22/climate-change-libel-action-canada-national-post
I won’t believe it until you computer model it. And make sure your model uses a flat earth, too.
Happy Earth Day everybody!
Don’t forget to let your kids watch the SpongeBob SquarePants Earth Day Special tonight!
http://www.nick.com/games/spongebob-squarepants-spongebobs-jellyfishin-mission.html
Thanks, Anthony! Statistically speaking, when the line is well within the one standard deviation area of the graph, it is, for all essential purposes, touching or exceeding the mean ice extent.
Still, it is nice to watch the squiggly lines go up and up! Happy Lenin’s Birthday, errrr, Earth Day to y’all!!
But, but, doesn’t this mean that all that water locked up at the poles is depriving some desert tribe in N. Africa of badly needed water? Must you rub it in? Have you no heart? 😉
I haven’t seen anything yet to move me off of 6.0-6.2M km2 for minimum.
My next major checkpoint is July 1-July 15. I think that’s where the increase in multi-year ice over last year will begin to create significant positive separation from 2009.
Scott (11:16:03) :
I thought the Arctic was supposed to be ice free by 2008
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/01/content_7696460.htm
For Earth Day, the normally rational Weather Channel is now showing an alarmist Global Warming program, describing giant dust storms ruining Las Vegas, water shortages world wide, soaring temperatures everywhere, with a spooky voice over. There was no bulletin indicating that this was a science fiction program.
Sent a brief e-mail to their website, complaining of the program content.
As it turns out I have a couple of “trees” in my back yard; which are just not putting out enough Oxygen to earn their keep, and I also have a very nice and noisy Chain saw. So when I get home tonight, I am going to slaughter those two trees in the interest of some dendrochronology. And then I am going to whack them up pretty good, so nobody is going to accuse me of Nyquist Violations on this exercise.
I can’t think of a better way to celebrate. Well I am wearing my Green Frog Hair Hat today; it’s the frog that’s green, not the hat. Well actually the frog is green and yellow.
Speaking of yellow, my new Physical Chemistry book has a problem question asking how many yellow photons a 100 Watt lamp emits in 1 second at 100% efficiency. Well they said yellow; but the wavelength they give is 560 nm ;which isn’t yellow in any color chart I’ve ever seen; it’s a pretty ordinary grellow; but I would look more at 580-585 if I was looking for a yellow photon. I guess some academics never do go out into the real world. The “yellow” part of the visible spectrum, is the narrowest in terms of the range of wavelengths that the eye perceives as a particular color; no more than 5 nm wide. between grellow and amber.
Not only is there more Arctic ice today than in past years, the ice is also thicker.
Thicker ice melts more slowly.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=04&fd=18&fy=1980&sm=04&sd=18&sy=2010
“One of the world’s leading climate scientists has launched a libel lawsuit…”
“…lawyers acting for Andrew Weaver, a climate modeller at the University of Victoria, Canada, have demanded the National Post removes the articles not only from its own websites, but also from the numerous blogs and sites where they were reposted.”
“…including prominent climate-sceptic sites Climate Audit and Watts Up With That.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/22/climate-change-libel-action-canada-national-post