From the Australian: SEA water under an East Antarctic ice shelf showed no sign of higher temperatures despite fears of a thaw linked to global warming that could bring higher world ocean levels, first tests showed yesterday.
Sensors lowered through three holes drilled in the Fimbul Ice Shelf showed the sea water is still around freezing and not at higher temperatures widely blamed for the break-up of 10 shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula, the most northerly part of the frozen continent in West Antarctica.
“The water under the ice shelf is very close to the freezing point,” Ole Anders Noest of the Norwegian Polar Institute wrote after drilling through the Fimbul, which is between 250m and 400m thick.
“This situation seems to be stable, suggesting that the melting under the ice shelf does not increase,” he wrote of the first drilling cores.
The findings, a rare bit of good news after worrying signs in recent years of polar warming, adds a small bit to a puzzle about how Antarctica is responding to climate change, blamed largely on human use of fossil fuels.
Antarctica holds enough water to raise world sea levels by 57m if it ever all melted, so even tiny changes are a risk for low-lying coasts or cities from Beijing to New York.
The Institute said the water under the Fimbul was about -2.05C. Salty water freezes at a slightly lower temperature than fresh water.
And it was slightly icier than estimates in a regional model for Antarctica, head of the Norwegian Polar Institute’s Center for Ice, Climate and Ecosystems, Nalan Koc, said.
“The important thing is that we are now in a position to monitor the water beneath the ice shelf.
“If there is a warming in future we can tell.”
She said data collected could go into a new report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, due in 2013-14.
The last IPCC report, in 2007, did not include computer models for sea temperature around the Fimbul Ice Shelf.
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From the expedition web site: http://fimbul.npolar.no/en/news/current/Nye_data.html
We observed a roughly 50 meter deep layer of water with temperatures very close to the freezing point, about -2.05 degrees, just beneath the ice shelf. The highest observed temperature was about -1.83 degrees close to the bottom. The temperatures are very similar to temperature data collected by elephant seals in 2008 and by British Antarctic Survey using an autosub below the ice shelf in 2005.
We collected three profiles from the underside of the ice to the seabed at 653 meters below sealevel. No trace of the relatively warm deep water that upwells over the continental slope was found. It will be exciting to see if this is the situation all year round, says Ole Anders Nøst.
For more on how the drilling was done, see this PDF of the method and equipment here
More on the project here
h/t to Michael In Sydney
Well if the ice and the water are in contact, wouldn’t you expect the water to be right at the freezing point. Or what is it that I don’t understand about phase diagrams ? Evidently those “Scientists” don’t understand it either.
How to keep yourself employed at the British Antarctic Survey.
1. – release research that says the antarctic is melting a sea levels will rise.
2. – next summer release research that shows your previous research was wrong.
3. – any ideas for next summer?
More lack of warming that Phil Jones can’t account for? Must be the methods.
It’s colder than we thought.
Who keeps funding these people? All I hear is that the science is settled!
James? Al? Phil? Anybody??
Southern Ocean SST anomalies have been dropping since the early 1990s.
http://i41.tinypic.com/29zxus7.jpg
Graph is from this post:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/04/closer-look-at-ersstv3b-southern-ocean.html
Wouldn’t it take lots of measurements over an extended period of time to be able to say that.
I note that the largest Antarctic ice extent on record last September was completely ignored by the mainstream media. However the Steig et al paper that used very dodgy statistics to show that most of Antarctica was warming received major media exposure. The subsequent debunking by Steve Mckintyre was also ignored. I wonder if the masia will now report climate more fairly. I shan’t hold my breath.
How inconvenient.
Only in an equilibrium state would they be at the same temperature.. if you have a current bringing warmer water in, then you might reasonably expect a difference.
“collected by elephant seals”?
If it was below the freezing point, then more ice would be freezing. If it were above the freezing point, then the ice would be melting.
All in all, a change in temp will melt / form ice until the equilibrium is re-established.
This is good news.
It is amusing that there are British Petroleum barrels in the photo above. The BP symbol is shown here:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e7/BP_Logo.svg
Maybe they had to burn oil to heat the water to melt the ice.
“The last IPCC report, in 2007, did not include computer models for sea temperature around the Fimbul Ice Shelf.”
Find out who is responsible for this travesty and have them shot as an example.
Where have all the warmings gone?
Long time passin’
Where have all the warmings gone?
Long time ago……….
Or what is it that I don’t understand about phase diagrams ? Evidently those “Scientists” don’t understand it either.
I am assuming that some information on methodology was omitted in the summary here but they likely allowed the water in the area of the drill holes to reach equilibrium and probably took an average of the water temperature near the ice down to maybe a couple of meters below the ice.
“Antarctica holds enough water to raise world sea levels by 57m if it ever all melted, so even tiny changes are a risk for low-lying coasts or cities from Beijing to New York”
God I find this kind of crap extremely irritating! It is now early summer in Antarctica, equivalent of early July here in the NH. The Sun is up 24 hrs a day. WU has the current temp at Amundsen-Scott Airport at -17F. The five day forecast shows anticipated highs of -4F. In other words it needs to heat up 40-50 degrees to approach the melting temp of ice. A quick check thru the history files shows only 2005 with a temp above freezing on this date and it was below zero the day before and the day after. Antarctica has about as much chance of melting away as I have of winning the Powerball jackpot.
It’s a travesty!
Janama:
“1. – release research that says the antarctic is melting a sea levels will rise.
2. – next summer release research that shows your previous research was wrong.
3. – any ideas for next summer?”
Yes – when one has two conflicing results, one MUST go try it out again to see which is correct – but of course, just a third won’t do because then there is not enough to define a statiscally significant trend, so a minimum of five and preferably more years of testing should be funded.
The last time I saw something as out of touch as this was when I was on the list of interested reviewers of the annual report of the investigations into potential use of Yucca Mtn as a deep geological repository for nuclear waste. If you think climate scientists are good at spending money and saying nothing in two directions at once, get one of those NRC reports – it’s what ha;lppens when one gives “pure research scientist types an unlimited budget.”
Can someone answer a simple question for me please? Arctic ice melts and grows with seasonal variation, often by a huge amount. Does “average” see level rise and fall with the same variation? The reason I ask is because if 1/2 of the ice melts in the summer and we don’t see a noticeable rise in sea level, how would a complete melt be a catastrophe, assuming it can happen?
Excuse my ignorantum….
Ron (15:55:55) :
Or what is it that I don’t understand about phase diagrams ? Evidently those “Scientists” don’t understand it either.
I am assuming that some information on methodology was omitted in the summary here but they likely allowed the water in the area of the drill holes to reach equilibrium and probably took an average of the water temperature near the ice down to maybe a couple of meters below the ice.
“We observed a roughly 50 meter deep layer of water with temperatures very close to the freezing point, about -2.05 degrees, just beneath the ice shelf.
According to the story the water was near freezing down to 50 meter depth.
No mention, I can see, of the salinity of the sea water at different depths, maybe. Wouldn’t this help to tell if the sea shelf trending towards freezing or melting?
So… they’ve determined that water is cold when it’s beneath ice?
Dam,thought i was gonna get the h/t ;]
I am surprised at how many less biased and questioning reports are appearing in the UK msn at the moment,serious back peddling ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1242398/Now-tests-ice-ISNT-melting-Sea-water-shelf-East-Antarctic-freezing.html
Robinson: The winter expansion is sea water freezing. When sea water freezes it makes no difference at all to sea levels, same as when you drop an ice cube into a glass of water and mark the water lever. When the ice cube melts the water level remains the same.
The whole of the polar ice cap could melt and it would make no difference to sea levels, because it is floating in the sea. The difference at the south pole is that a large part of it is on land – disconnected from the sea. If/when that melts it will add to the sea level.