That god among men and Nobel Peace Prize winner, Al Gore, told us in “An Inconvenient Truth”, his Oscar-winning documentary, that we had to brace for increasing numbers of hurricanes as the result of global warming.
So, where are the hurricanes of 2009, Mr. Gore?
The hurricane season that runs from June through October is about to end with nothing more than one weak to borderline moderate tropical storm that hit Florida’s panhandle, but there have been NO hurricanes.
So, where are the hurricanes of 2009, Mr. Gore?
Trying to predict how many hurricanes there will be each year is probably fun, but is a highly risky undertaking. I have a lot of friends among the meteorological and climatological community, men of science, but I always cross my fingers for them when they take a run at it.
This year, Bill Gray of Colorado State, perhaps the best known among the hurricane forecasters, thought there would be at least 7 hurricanes of which 3 would be major. Weather Services Inc. agreed with Dr. Gray and, over at Accuweather, the prediction was for 8 hurricanes of which 2 would be major.
NOAA and the National Weather Service do not predict hurricanes, but as political as well as scientific entities they have a very bad track record of trying to confirm Al Gore’s global warming claims.
In March, William J. Broad, reporting in The New York Times, noted that Gore’s “scientific audience is uneasy” in the wake of his global warming documentary. “These scientists argue that some of Mr. Gore’s central points are exaggerated and erroneous. They are alarmed, some say, at what they call his alarmism.”
In Great Britain, a judge ruled that the documentary could not be shown in the schools unless teachers read a long list of its erroneous claims.
Since an increase in hurricanes was one of his dramatic claims along with rising sea levels and disappearing polar bears, Gore is batting zero these days. The sea levels have been rising a few inches every century for millennia and it is generally conceded that the polar bear population since the 1950s has been thriving.
In May, hurricane specialist Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center in Miami disputed theories that “global warming” has caused more hurricanes. His study was published in The Journal of Climate.
Landsea, like all meteorologists who haven’t been in a coma since the 1980s, knows that the Earth has been in a cooling cycle since 1998. Thus, the warmth that feeds hurricanes has diminished and is likely to stay that way for decades to come.
Landsea’s research showed that, since the mid-1990s, the average number of hurricanes per year had almost doubled what it was during the few prior decades, about on par with hurricane activity in the early 20th century. “It’s busy, yes, but not anything we haven’t seen before,” said Landsea while attending the Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference in May.
For the non-scientist, that should confirm that hurricanes are governed by natural cycles, not some non-existent, dramatic increase called “global warming.”
Though what I know about hurricanes would fit comfortably in a bug’s ear, I am nonetheless tempted to suggest that the cooling cycle the Earth entered in 1998 may be a contributing factor to why this year’s hurricane season is, at this writing, minus any hurricanes.
So, where are the hurricanes of 2009, Mr. Gore?
Known as “the Gore factor”, it is the irony of blizzards or severe snow storms that seem to follow him around whenever he delivered one of his “global warming” speeches.
It is my profound prayer that, in December when the United Nations climate conference convenes to issue an international treaty based on the Great Global Warming Lie, that the city of Copenhagen gets hit by a blizzard so great that the delegates cannot leave their plush hotels for days.
“The dog did nothing in the night-time.” 🙂
Well then. Here’s hoping for an almighty Copenhagen Gore effect then.
…. Failing that. May his chooks turn into emus and kick his fowl house down;-)
Better luck next year. I deny global warming, but wish we had better storm forecasting. there are far to many variables and the variables change.
“BY FAR THE MOST TERRIFYING FILM YOU WILL EVER SEE.”
What a joke…
I thought there was one (Bill?) that never made landfall.
Climate change: It’s all in the clouds.
“All sunshine makes a desert.” This is an old Arabic proverb. The Arabs should know. They have a lot of deserts and more desert land is added every year in the Muslim world. Is this due to global warming, or is it due to mismanagement of precious water resources, overgrazing and cutting down of trees?
“The planet has a fever,” Nobel Peace Prize winner Al Gore said March 2007 in a joint congressional hearing. “The science is settled,” Gore told the lawmakers. ”Carbon-dioxide emissions — from cars, power plants, buildings and other sources — are heating the Earth’s atmosphere.”
Tokyo governor Shintaro Ishihara warned Sep 30 in Copenhagen during his speech about Tokyo’s bid for the Olympics that the 2016 Olympics could be the last Games, with global warming an immediate threat to mankind.
Many years ago the summers in eastern USA were full of thunderstorms, but not too many day long rains. In the 1960’s, the increased burning of high sulfur coal and diesel fuel led to day long “acid rains”. The fish died in lakes that already were too acidic.
Then most of the coal fired power plants got scrubbers, low sulfur diesel fuel was mandated and the rain again got less acid.
The carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions continued, this acts as a green house gas, and the earth would then get warmer, the more CO2, the warmer the earth. This looked like a sure thing around 1999, when the alarm sounded: Unless we drastically reduce the CO2 emissions, we will face a thermal runaway, and life as we know it will be no more.
The polar ice caps were melting at an alarming rate, and we could see an ice-free arctic summer in less than 20 years (or was it 50? The number of years seems to vary.)
“Recent projections suggest polar bears could be extinct within 70 years.” The Telegraph recently announced.
This seemed true until mid 2007, when the yearly melting of the icecaps suddenly stopped and the ice caps started growing again.
The Arctic polar ice cap as of Sep 15 2009 is 5 million square kilometers, up 23% from 2007.
The Antarctic ice cap as of Sep 16 2009 is 18.5 million square kilometers, up 5% from 2008, and up 3% from 1979 – 2000 average.
On the 8th of October it was announced that the ice melt across during the Antarctic summer (October-January) of 2008-2009 was the lowest ever recorded in the satellite history (World Climate Report). Did you miss the headlines?
2009 has been a different year. The clouds seem to have changed character again. The clouds over Pennsylvania this summer reminded me of the Swedish clouds of my childhood. Something must have changed to make the clouds look more Nordic.
Then I read an article about solar winds and how they affect cosmic rays. The article was written by the Dane Henrik Svensmark (born 1958), a physicist at the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen.
The article is sure to cause controversy over Svensmark’s theory of cosmic ray to cloud modulation, which is said to be affecting earth’s climate. Svensmark says this is now leading to a global cooling phase. Just a couple of weeks after Svensmark’s bold announcement, NASA has announced that we have hit a new record high in Galactic Cosmic Rays, up 19% from the last recorded peak to a new space age high.
Suddenly a lot of things that has puzzled me about climate change started to make sense. We are much more dependent on the variations in the sun than previously thought, but not for the reasons we thought. The Sun has regular 11 year cycles of magnetic activity. The magnetic activity rises and falls again. This has almost no effect on the weather, so something else must cause the weather changes.
How could cosmic radiation cause clouds? Let us take an analogy with boiling water. It boils at the boiling point. If distilled water is used it heats up above the boiling point and erupts in a burst of bubbles that can be quite dangerous. If de-ionized water is used it is even more pronounced. The gas bubbles must have a core of something to form from.
It is the same thing with condensation. The air can be super-saturated with moisture and nothing happens unless there is a surface to condensate on. Dust particles and ions will do fine, but if the air is clean there will be no clouds.
The cosmic radiation that hits the earth comes from distant super-nova explosions and is assumed to be constant. Most of it is absorbed in the solar wind that surrounds the earth, but some particles survive and enter the earth’s atmosphere. The speed of the particles is very close to the speed of light, so they have an enormous energy. When they hit the atmosphere they ionize the molecules they come in contact with, not once, but many times, and they leave a trail of ions until they are fully absorbed in the atmosphere. This trail is an ideal condensation trail, and clouds can form. As with the example of boiling water, once it starts, the clouds feed on themselves.
So, this is the reason the clouds have changed character. The Iron Nuclei cosmic radiation is 4 times more in 2009 than it was in 2000. The clouds are more disbursed, smaller and with less energy each, but over larger areas. Since clouds cause cooling of the earth, it explains the recent cooling trend. It also explains why the tropical storms could not get organized but dissipated rather than develop into full blown hurricanes. As an added bonus the Ozone layer is recovering.
So, Mr. Gore, the science is not settled, the interesting part has just begun. Right now, there is a team of scientists at the CERN supercollider investigating cosmic radiation and its ability to form clouds in a condensation chamber. The results will not be available for a while, but when the results are reported we will find that all climate models have overestimated the CO2 influence, and underestimated the importance of clouds as temperature regulators.
What does this mean for the future of the politics of climate change? Rather than concentrating on CO2 emissions we should concentrate on the water management of the earth. The disappearance of Lake Aral and Lake Tsad, the lowering of the water table in many environmentally vulnerable areas of the world is a much greater danger to the environment. This is mostly happening in Muslim and other totalitarian areas of the world. Now, that’s an inconvenient truth, Mr. Gore!
Lennart Bilén, 2009
Al Gore doesn’t get it. Hansen and the IPCC promised him the Moon.
The largest number of major hurricane strikes on the mainland U.S. occurred during the period from 1941 to 1950. Ten major hurricanes (Cat 3,4,5) struck the coasts. This decade also featured the largest number of hurricane strikes for all categories. I think that the total was 24. (See NOAA technical memorandum NWS TPC-5 by Landsea et al.)
The fewest number of major hurricane strikes (1951 and later) occurred during the period from 1971 to 1950. Only four major ‘canes hit the coasts.
Generally speaking, there was an uptrend in hurricane strikes that lasted about 50 years from 1911 to 1960 and that period was followed by a downtrend in strikes that ran from 1961 to 2000 or about 40 years. It was during the downtrend that coastal development and population densities mushroomed. Hence, when cyclonic activity returned to the mean, far more people and structures were at risk than ever before.
The current decade is one hurricane strike above the long term averages for major hurricanes and for all categories. From 2001 through today, there have been 7 major hurricane strikes (average is 6.2) and 19 strikes for all categories (average is 17.9). Neither of these totals is extraordinary and there is only one year left in the decade.
The phrase “1971 to 1950” in second paragraph should read “1971 to 1980”. Only four majors hit the coasts during that decade.
The year 2009 appears to be a hurricane “down cycle” partly explaining where the hurricanes went, Mr. Caruba. See this blog article on hurrricane cycles.
http://weatherwax.braveblog.com/entry/34426
Second, I believe hurricanes do not totally ignore their cycles even during global warming.
Third, when the next hurricane “up cycle” converges with global warming and with the Mayan Doomsday calendar in the year 2102, you’ll be asking why so many hurricanes even though you know hurricanes and the 2012 are just coincedences. But global warming is not a coincedence.
But global warming is not a coincedence.
But so far it has been quite mild. If the 21st century warms at the rate (or even twice the rate) of the 20th, there is no emergency, whatever.
There has to be that 500% increase in the rate of global warming (a la IPCC) for there to be an emergency. There is no evidence of that, whatever, and a mountain of evidence against the likelihood.
Alan Caruba,
I love his writing.
He is incredible productive, you can find a new little gem every day.
A true defender of the American Dream.
“Where are the Hurricanes Mr. Gore” is a typical for his style of writing.
To the point, razor sharp, well informed about the facts with a healthy dose of sarcasm and a snuff of humor if the subject allows it.
Pay a visit to Warning Signs (http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/)
There a lot to read and a lot to learn.
And further, this assumes that you are willing to stretch far enough to even believe that the 500% increase rate of global warming would actually lead to anything catastrophic at all (I do not believe so). Either way you slice it on this, I am sorry to say Stormy, you lose.
You are correct however, Global Warming is not a coincidence, that is the point, it is a natural cycle, which is not a coincidence.
I cannot recall who made this comment a while back. They said “It is ok to make predictions, as long as they are not about the future “. Beautifully stated!! Wonder how Al’s” 5 years until the arctic is ice free” will stand up?
I’ve been praying for snow too
The hurricanes (not called that west of the International Date Line) went mostly to the Pacific. El Nino.
Yogi Berra: “It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Lebbart Bilén (20:23:03) :
Thanks for your posting Lebbart.
I am not sure we should switch from the CO2 scare to the water scare.
Although both scares are connected.
If fossil energy is rationed and bio fuel production increased, the water problem will grow bigger.
At this moment several innovative water projects are tested.
These projects vary from low energy desalination techniques and water filtering projects to new concepts to take water from the atmosphere.
I really think we can solve most of the problems but turning back the clock on humanity, squandering billions of dollars to solve a non problem, that’s not the way to go.
“It is my profound prayer that, in December when the United Nations climate conference convenes to issue an international treaty based on the Great Global Warming Lie, that the city of Copenhagen gets hit by a blizzard so great that the delegates cannot leave their plush hotels for days.”
We are many who hope for that, but it has been many years since the last snow storm of such magnitude in Denmark.
But maybe we will get very cold weather. October is already far below the 1960 to 1991 average, and many omens points to a cold winter this year.
/Mikkel
While it doesn’t alter the author’s point, the North Atlantic Hurricane Season ends November 30, so to say its “about to end” is a bit misleading. There is still officially one-sixth of the season left. Again, not a big deal but, as he points out in critiquing Gore’s movie and other claims, accuracy and transparency is important, in my view.
Stormy wrote:
“Third, when the next hurricane “up cycle” converges with global warming and with the Mayan Doomsday calendar in the year 2102, you’ll be asking why so many hurricanes…”
Will any of us be around in 2102?
Stormy (20:39:24) :
Uncle Leo??? You have got to be kidding us with that post.
Actually, there were two hurricanes — Bill and Fred (I think) — out of the total of eight named storms. And of the six named tropical storms, the last two — Grace and Henri — were rather short-lived. In fact, Grace was formed off the Iberian peninsula and was quickly absorbed by a frontal system after a couple of days. This season seems to be decently below the 60+ year average — see:
http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2009/Hurricane-Atlantic-2009.htm
evanmjones (20:18:55) :
I thought there was one (Bill?) that never made landfall.
———–
I believe there have been two Atlantic hurricanes; Bill and Fred.
They didn’t make landfall in the U.S. but I don’t think the article is very clear about that.
Mikkel (21:26:47) :
“It is my profound prayer that, in December when the United Nations climate conference convenes to issue an international treaty based on the Great Global Warming Lie, that the city of Copenhagen gets hit by a blizzard so great that the delegates cannot leave their plush hotels for days.”
If this did happen they would blame it on GW!!