Nansen Corrects Sea Ice Data – Sea Ice Extent Now Greater, Near Normal for Most of April/May

By Steven Goddard and Anthony Watts

From Steve: In May, WUWT reported on an apparent error in the Nansen ice extent data. It appears that we were correct, as Nansen has adjusted their 2009 extent data upwards.

The (light red) line below shows their ice extent data from May 2, 2009. It had been too low since their downwards adjustment in December.

But, as of June 5th,  the 2009 extent has been corrected (dark red)

Also note that the 2007/2008 lines have not changed, and that ice extent was in the normal range for most of April and May.

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png

From Anthony:

Interest in sea ice extent continues to run high, but there remains differences between different groups such as NSIDC and Cryosphere Today, which have both been plagued with SSMI sensor problems from the DMSP F13 satellite. NANSEN may have had the same issues with SSMI/F13, and if they did, they seem to have gotten them under control, possibly by switching to SSSMI/F17 as NSIDC did.

For example here is a page that NANSEN maintains that shows the differences between the newer AMSRE (that JAXA uses) and the SSMI. One of the images is an AMSR minus SSMI, and it looks like the two different satellites/sensors are in pretty good agreement, with areas along the ice edge (where ice/water boundaries are rapidly changing) showing noise differences where you would expect them to.

amsr_ssmi-map

There’s another difference though between NANSEN and JAXA, and NSIDC/Cryosphere Today. The NANSEN and JAXA pages don’t have the kind of news updates that we are used to seeing from their USA counterparts. In that respect, we should probably thank NSIDC and CT for their willingness to provide timely updates and especially thanks to NSIDC’s Walt Meier for making guest posts and answering questions here.

Along the same lines, if you look at the press releases and news articles and compare them, NSIDC seems to lead in speaking to the press, followed by CT, with NANSEN/JAXA having very little press interaction.

Interestingly though, NANSEN offers forecasts of arctic sea ice extent here from their TOPAZ model with comparisons to both SSMI and AMSRE data plotted also.

mersea_topaz_ice_ext_2009.png

What is interesting is that, at least for this year, the TOPAZ model has been underperforming both in forecasting area and extent. Perhaps this is why we don’t see much in the way of forecasts from NANSEN projected to the media. The model isn’t quite tuned yet. I applaud such caution when it comes to forecasting minimum summer sea ice extent in the spring to the media.

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116 thoughts on “Nansen Corrects Sea Ice Data – Sea Ice Extent Now Greater, Near Normal for Most of April/May

  1. Oh, wonderful, fresh air, measurements that look correct again. Thank you Anthony.

    Has the December 2008 blue line been adjusted? because AFAICT it matches the January 2009 new red line, not the old pink line.

  2. Thanks for this article.

    One little typo to correct:
    and especially thanks to NSIDC’s Walt Meier fro making guest posts and answering questions here. Change fro to for!

    REPLY: fixed thanks – Anthony

  3. And here I was thinking I was imagining things after NANSEN made their correction after the F13 failure. It’s good to see them take aggressive steps to correct the record. Now let’s see how the melt proceeds through to September; it should not be as severe as in 2007 and 2008 as there’s now more multi-year ice out there, but only time will tell.

  4. We should point out that the supposed “massively positive” Arctic Icepack melting feedback theory is absolutely proved wrong: ASMR 2007 was very low, but 2008 levels recovered back with more coverage, then 2009 has been at or above ALL previously graphed years.

    If “uncovered” water truly led to higher temperatures and more melting, which leads to more melting, this could never have happened.

    Then again, EVERY summer ice melts and then refreezes from the edges – so the alarmists’ theory never was valid in the first palce.

  5. Good, but the recent reduction in Arctic Sea Ice has been a wake up call for me. I think the ice has gotten down to the point where it’s pretty broken up in Summer and the currents can sweep a lot of it to lower latitudes and melt it. Thus, there’s a good chance the decline will continue for the next few years.

    I don’t know how the polar bears will fare but it’s wonderful news for shippers. Being able to count on a northwest passage opening every September would allow some serious commerce through. Boats too big for the Panama canal could get through.

    Like so many aspects of a warmer globe, it is basically helpful. The real flaw in the CAGW argument is the “C”. It isn’t a catastrophe; it’s a wonderful development.

  6. OT: It seems that some Burger King franchisees agree that the melt is off.

    ‘Global warming is baloney’ signs put the heat on Burger King
    * Leo Hickman
    * guardian.co.uk, Friday 5 June 2009 19.56 BST

    A row between the fast food giant Burger King and one of its major franchise owners has erupted over roadside signs proclaiming “global warming is baloney”.

    The franchisee, a Memphis-based company called the Mirabile Investment Corporation (MIC) that owns more than 40 Burger Kings across Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi, has described Burger King as acting “kinda like cockroaches” over the controversy. MIC says it does not believe Burger King has the authority to make it take the signs down.
    Full report at the UK Guardian, that bastion of warmists, this one must have them in full ad hom flow. :)

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/05/burger-king-global-warming-us

  7. anyone hear any new reports on the results or press from the Catlin Arctic “Survey” lately ?

    Seems they have gone quiet.

  8. Arctic ice should simply represent the heat content of the air/oceans surrounding it. Since the content has been flat for the last 5 years or so after increasing for several years then the AVERAGE ice extent should fall within certain bounds that are lower than previous years. In 2007 the winds caused an anomaly that has been recovering ever since. I expect it will return to the average for this decade and stay there unless the heat content changes once again or another anomaly happens.

  9. Re Catlin Arctic Adventure

    I sent the following e-mail to the “authorities in May

    “From: Gordon Ford [mailto:gford1@telus.net]
    Sent: Monday, May 04, 2009 3:49 PM
    To: Welsh, Craig
    Cc: info@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
    Subject: Catlin Arctic Survey

    Nunavut Ministry of the Environment

    The Catlin Arctic Survey, a science – publicity expedition to the north pole with a mission to document the effect of global warming on arctic ice, is currently located at 85 deg. 19min 11sec N , 124 deg 58min 48 sec W, in Canadian Territory.

    Staging for this venture is out of Resolute and Eureka Nunavut.

    They have and are establishing fuel dumps in the ice to enable aircraft to reach their position for resupply.

    What assurances has the Catlin Arctic Survey provided the Government of Nunavut that the fuel drums (either full or empty) will be recovered so as not to post an environmental hazard or a threat to navigation?

    Gordon Ford

    Salt Spring Island BC”

    And receivd the following reply–


    From: Welsh, Craig
    To: Gordon Ford
    Sent: Monday, May 04, 2009 1:31 PM
    Subject: RE: Catlin Arctic Survey

    Mr. Ford…

    I’ve consulted with our Environmental Protection division and I’ve been told that it’s best to direct your question to the federal Department of Indian and Northern Affairs.

    Thank you…

    Craig

    Craig Welsh

    Communications Manager

    Department of Environment

    Government of Nunavut” —-

    I promptly forwarded the lot to DIND

    “This request for information was originally sent to Nunavut Environment. I trust that I am not getting the run-around.

    Gordon Ford
    Salt Spring Island BC” And initiallry received this reply on June 3rd.

    “Good morning Gordon,

    I have just received your enquiry on the assurance that this Catlin Arctic Survey program will remove the fuel drums required for resupply and that navigation will not be impeded with unrecovered fuel drums. I would be really interested to learn more about this project so that I can do some more legwork to determine if permits have been sought or were even required. I will then speak with the Nunavut Impact Review Board to determine whether this went to an environmental assessment (screening).

    If the fuel resupply plans were indeed captured with a land use permit and/ or water licence, there then would be terms and conditions associated with the removal of these fuel storage containers/ associated mitigation measures for spill contingency plans, etc… Being as the only information I have right now is that this fuel storage is on ice and the project appears to be staged at Resolute Bay and Eureka, I would have to check into their project plans and see if this component was properly considered.

    As mentioned earlier, I would be very interested in learning more and would welcome the opportunity to talk to you about this on the telephone if you wish.

    I will start doing some groundwork and hope to glean some more details from you and others in the near term.

    Sincerely,
    -Robyn

    Robyn Abernethy-Gillis
    Manager for Environment Division
    Indian and Northern Affairs Canada
    P.O. Box 100, ding 918
    Iqaluit, Nunavut”

    KEY sentence “”Being as the only information I have right now is that this fuel storage is on ice and the project appears to be staged at Resolute Bay and Eureka””

    To which I replied
    “The Catlin Arctic Survey was, in my opinion, an ill planned publicity stunt
    to measure aortic ice and prove that the arctic ice is melting. The survey
    established a number of fuel caches on the ice and because they fell well
    short of their goals I believe one or more of the fuel caches were never
    recovered. Details are available on their web site
    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/

    which was followed by this information from Curtis Didham on June 5th, the next day——

    Good Day Mr. Ford:

    I am e-mailing you to follow up on a concern you had about the Catlin Arctic Ice Survey Ice team leaving full/empty fuel drums on the sea ice. I have followed up on your concern and am informing you that all garbage, waste and fuel drums will be returned to Resolute Bay over the next week (weather permitting) for proper disposal via twin otter. If you have any further questions please feel free to contact me.

    Curtis Didham

    Enforcement Officer

    Environmental Enforcement Division

    Prairie and Northern Region

    969 Qimugjuk Building

    P.O. Box 1870

    Iqaluit, NU X0A 0H0

    Ph: 867-975-4644

    Fax: 867-975-4594

    Cell: 867-222-1925″

    —–As an ex civil servant (BC Ministry ot the Environment) I translate Curtis’s message as “its still out there and if the weather co-operates they may get it out next week (If they can find it))”. If it was left on the ice I suspect it is now (OOPS), unrecoverable.

    A reporter needing copy could have real fun with this!!!!

    Gordon Ford

  10. I looked, and it’s just as you would expect. Darned cold looking, no melting, icy stuff on the camera, sunny & dreary spells.
    Oh, and did I mention it looks awfully cold?

  11. This is all about the polar bear. The thin scraggly, tired beast. That is what has the public mesmerized and concerned about the Artic ice. Something They know very little about. Right now their are millions of people living in sewage and starving, but yet we care about the polar bear. OUR minds are like a big magnetic, which vibrates with the thoughts we hear and entertain the most. No one would care about how open Artic shipping lanes could increase prosperity in this world, they have been told to care about polar bears. No one cares that we have millions starving, living in squalor, in need of simple electricity and water which could be easily provided if we stopped spending Billions on climate and soon, many Billions on Cap/Trade Punishment Tax.
    Here is a nice paper about the poor polar bear. Again, the FEAR is all based on computer projections, not the reality of today.

    http://kestencgreen.com/polarbears.pdf

    They write that polar bear populations are in good shape and some studies have shown that polar bears are hurt by Cold weather. They are not endangered right now, they are only endangered by what they conclude are “unscientific” forecasts based on an “erroneous complex set of assumptions”. They quote an IPCC lead author who states they don’t make predictions, only “what if” scenarios.

    I am a nature guy, a state breeding bird atlas regional coordinator, and NO ONE wants to talk about any of this stuff. Almost every single one of them is completely magnetized that the end is near, we are destroying the planet and drastic measures need to be taken, by someone. They don’t even want to look at data, why bother, we have the National Geographic Channel, Audubon, Sierra Club pummeling us monthly in our nature journals with this NONSENSE, and almost all MASS MEDIA just about everyone else piling on! Thanks Anthony for the brain food, but we are using bb guns against their cannons.

  12. Yes, the corrected red line is above the pink line, but it seems to have recently started a a kamikaze dive. This is hard to explain, as the month of May has been cooler than average in Canada. Maybe Russia was warmer.

    What will the red line do next? The suspense is unbearable…

    I haven’t heard about any prediction on ice-free Noth Pole this summer. But we continue to constantly read and hear about the melting polar icecaps, as it has become an article of faith.

  13. It was very good of NANSEN to correct the record.
    Now the record makes sense, what with all that extra cold winter up there

  14. Re Catlin Arctic Adventure
    For Gordon Ford
    I worked in Eureka in 1979-80. we had a huge pile of empty fuel drums from many years of ‘exporation’ left up there. I believe several years ago it was cleaned up. However, as to the drums left on the ice, at this time of the year up there you get a lot of channel water (as the ice melts) that stretch for long ways and no plane could land safely, so they will remain up there or eventually end up in the Atlantic….

  15. Walt Meier seems to be a good fellow. I hope to see a guest post from him again some day.

  16. Here is the best the “alarmists” can dish out on polar bears. The official Petition to list them as endangered.

    http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/species/mammals/polar_bear/pdfs/15976_7338.pdf

    Go right to page 20-21, a chart summarizing the 20 distinct bear populations, by region. 16 regions are either stable or unknown, while 2 are increasing and 2 are decreasing. Bottom line: the zzzBest Polar Bear Alarmists come up with a 170 petition, full of gobblygook What If’s, projections and worries, but have absolutely no evidence that the overall polar bear population is threatened. This is the kind of scientific garbage that is ruling the roost these dark days.
    Polar Bears are the bottom line why we are TOLD those Artic Ice squiggles mean anything. The mind is a magnet.

  17. But Al Gore said Arctic ice will be completely gone in 5 years (About 2013 based on what I can find about the date he made the announcement). And he has to be right aye, after all, he said he invented the internet, so he must be right?

  18. Bernard: I get the impression that this old satellite is constantly “drifting” now, so they need to constantly “re-adjust”. Would not surprised to see another adjustment (up) pretty soon from NSIDC and possibly NANSEN.

  19. Mark Hugo (18:59:41) :

    http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/np2009/cam1-2009web.mov

    Web Cam MOVIE, “Nautilus 90 North” (i.e., a North Pole Web CAM).

    Can really see the sea ice breaking up in this. (NOT!)

    Why is it so hard to get people JUST TO LOOK????

    So there was no ice breaking up within a few hundred feet of 87.962 N, 2.305 E last month, wow.

    Check out this shot of the Beaufort sea today, rather cloudy over the pole.

    http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T091582215

  20. Gordon Ford (19:31:16) :

    Mark Landsbaum, who recently did a nice editorial about Anthony and his Surfacestations project for the Orange County Register, might be interested in this. He has a blog at the Register called Orange Punch and you might consider emailing him the info from your comment. mlandsbaum@ocregister.com

  21. I hope the artic ice will clear. It would open up shipping and save shipping miles. Do not think we will be that fortunate. I live in the midwestern states and my father who is 93 taught us to track rainfall and daily temps. I see we are running 4-5 days a month where we reach average highs or higher. I have seen a sharp decreease in the number of days each summer that reach a hundred. There is another web site where they seem angry and threatening.. Is climate progress where they are pushing for punishment for people that can’t see global warming? so sad. Extra late frosts have damaged a lot of peach crops. Late frost is indeed climate change. It is not warming. One of our church missionaries in alaska said Tok hit 80 below last winter and broke some thermometers. Record freesing in another part of alaska froze some water supplies that are under a 16 foot frost line. It is impossible for rational people to observe record coold and buy the warming quickly and dangerously noise.
    I am very well aware of the gang green agenda.

  22. Does this mean that the IARC/JAXA graph is to be modified in due course?

    Sorry if this point has already been addressed above.

  23. Hmmm. So, either the 11,000-year warming trend continues, or it is reversed as we go into the next ice age.

    From the polar bears’ point of view, it seems to me that it doesn’t matter much whether humans bring on melting soon or natural forces bring it on a little later. Either way, they’re short of ice.

  24. Steve Goddard
    The Catlin Arctic Survey has posted a spreadsheet with their ice results at

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/science

    I looked at the results and there does not seem to be anything remarkable. The average thickness was 185 cm for the entire trip. This seems in line with mostly first year ice which, as you pointed out, was what they would have expected given their chosen track.

    Gordon Ford
    Thanks for following up on the fuel cache story. I had noted that the fuel was left there in an email to Anthony and he put it on WUWT. The CAS folks then started talking about retrieving it, but they never did.

    The only info on their website right now is at

    http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/ops_room.aspx?categoryID=31

    where it states on a post dated May 22: “drums still need to be retrieved from the fuel cache, just as soon as there is a break in the weather” which is the same story as the one given by Curtis Didham to you in his email.

    Since May 22, the CAS website has been silent on the issue. I would appreciate your continuing to follow up on this. As you point out, it will soon be too late to pick up all the stuff left there.

  25. Two sailboats completed the North West Passage last summer. One was an GW awareness raising trip out of Norway

    http://www.69nord.com/english/expe/index.html

    The other was a private adventure From Australia to the UK

    http://awberrimilla.blogspot.com/

    The blogs for both are online.

    This summer the Australian boat will traverse the arctic again, this time by the North East Passage (same URL).

    Also a Canadian sailboat is going to sail the North West Passage to raise GW awareness.

    http://www.openpassageexpedition.com/

  26. ” Global warming is baloney’ signs put the heat on Burger King”
    burger King has issued a Fatwa.

  27. Mark Hugo writes: “Why is it so hard to get people JUST TO LOOK????”

    I think this is a very important question.

  28. glenncz (19:44:29) :
    “This is all about the polar bear. The thin scraggly, tired beast. That is what has the public mesmerized and concerned about the Artic ice. Something They know very little about. Right now their are millions of people living in sewage and starving, but yet we care about the polar bear. OUR minds are like a big magnetic, which vibrates with the thoughts we hear and entertain the most. No one would care about how open Artic shipping lanes could increase prosperity in this world, they have been told to care about polar bears. No one cares that we have millions starving, living in squalor, in need of simple electricity and water which could be easily provided if we stopped spending Billions on climate and soon, many Billions on Cap/Trade Punishment Tax.”

    Viva glenncz
    In a formal presentation by a student group last week (who are looking at biogas development in Haiti), an unusually asute graduate student remarked that the carbon offsets proposed were just another form of “forced philanthropy.” This is a prospect that I had never considered before but is rather obvious. Frankly I’d like to control my philanthropy myself rather than having someone force it on me to save the polar bears or the arctic from melting. It certainly would be an easier sale to just levy a direct tax for helping out the millions in poverty rather than to diguise it in carbon offsets. Somehow I think that those people glenncz mentions above would be served a bit better by direct philanthropy. Note that close to 1 billion people worldwide (not polar bears) live in slum conditions. see Millennium Development Goals Report 2007. I’d say that a bit of increased fuel use might help the people out their hole. Is it human nature that people focus on nonproblems like ice extent, polar bears, and co2/AGW, rather than the more serious issues facing humanity?
    APE

  29. APE (23:00:24) :

    Is it human nature that people focus on nonproblems like ice extent, polar bears, and co2/AGW, rather than the more serious issues facing humanity?

    It is human nature to go after power, and in our societies the big stick has given way to the big money. There are two types of human nature, individual and crowds. When in crowd mentality people can be manipulated easily to get the desired outcome. The desired outcome will not be the solution of serious issues facing humanity, but it will be the increase in the power of the manipulators. Serious issues do not give power to manipulators and are avoided, polar bears and corals and other such trivia do fine as banners for crowd control.

  30. ew-3 (17:54:34) :

    anyone hear any new reports on the results or press from the Catlin Arctic “Survey” lately ?

    Seems they have gone quiet.

    Probably still busy reading the comments to the WUWT articles on their ‘mission’.

    :-)

  31. [Steven Goddard (17:53:23) :

    There isn’t any indication that the ice is “breaking up” in an unusual fashion.

    Temperatures in the Arctic have been running below normal.

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

    Hudson Bay is still almost completely frozen over.]

    1. Presumably most of the ice loss in May/early June is OUTSIDE the 80N latitude?
    2. Presumably there has been regular, ongoing and careful visual checking of ice extent over the years to correlate satellite sensor data to visual reality?
    3. The totality of reports here and elsewhere seem to indicate:
    i. Very warm May in Alaska.
    ii. Colder May in Northern US states.
    iii. Very warm in parts of Europe (e.g. Switzerland)

    A common thread to link those anywhere?

  32. @Steven Goddard (17:53:23) :

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.php

    It’s happend every year in the melting season…the temp. drops below the 50 years average, because a huge melting…all the heat-energy is sucked out of the atmosphere….Look at june temp. in the archive files.

  33. Anyone who had noticed that nature operates in cycles and that the Arctic temperature was reaching the same peak as the 30’s should have considered a recovery as a very strong possibility. Unfortunately there are too many academics who see a rising trend and are desperate to believe they know the reason why. Climate science is far from the only academic branch to demonstrate this behaviour; it’s merely their turn to be dazzled by the media spotlight.

  34. ” Flanagan (22:39:46) :

    Well, in the meantime the extent is now below 2008 and getting closer to 2007 which, may I remind you, is the year of all records. For June 7, we have (in sqkm)

    2009 – 11017500
    2008 – 11077656
    2007 – 10948750
    http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

    When I then look at http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic I get a sea ice extent closer to 12 million so who is right? Nansen seems to indicate a greater current ice extent and also considerable more ice than in 2007 or 2008. As a layman I must admit I am confused. So if you support AGW you refer to ijiss as Flanagan and if you are a [skeptic] preference will be shown for Nansen. What about some reliable graphs?

    When I then look at

  35. Good! Maybe the warmist propagandists will now quit telling us that the Arctic ice is melting faster than ever…

  36. Re:

    Flanagan (22:39:46) :
    Well, in the meantime the extent is now below 2008 and getting closer to 2007 which, may I remind you, is the year of all records.

    Do I detect some gloating there Flanagan?

  37. So when do they amend the sudden dive the graph has taken? How can they publish such a change in trajectory (and ice-loss) without any explanation as to how it occurred?

    What were the contributory factors? A change in wind direction? A change in sea-currents? A sudden warming trend?

    Just what happened to the ice? – or did it all fall into the Arctic entrance to the hollow Earth ;-) ;-) (lots of smiley faces…)

  38. Flanagan and everyone else:
    Yes, the Arctic ice extend is falling rapid, and who knows might resemble 2007 in septemper.
    I personally again will say:

    Global temperature are better reflected by global temperatures than Arctic-summer ice extend. Global temperatures are falling even though La Nina is long gone: http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/glotempmay092.gif
    So the lCO2 driven heat seems not capable of preventing all the ice to form in due time. It seems that there will be ice for all Martinies soon enough.

    And then a question to all:
    When Arctic sea ice is shrinking these days, howcome Arctic snow area is so extremely much bigger that last year??
    Is it an error ?:

    Is there any other links to present snow cover?

  39. Hello there,

    Trevor: no gloating of any form, just observations.

    John Peter: the NSIDC graph gives just the same as the JAXA I gave. And moreover that’s the graph you can find here, on WUWT in the right column.

  40. The ice cap of may and june are in the last years very close to eachother. July and August are importend months. Lets just wait until then.

  41. Rhys Jaggar … it’s was a very warm spring in Newfoundland too … our trees began leafing out 2-3 weeks early where I live … and we had a milder winter while most of Canada froze!

  42. I notice the TOPAZ forecast has the current downtrend flattening out by the end of June. Hopefully this implies some warmer weather on it’s way for us further south.

  43. The Caitlan survey was too badly flawed to support the predetermined results, so into the old memory hole it goes!

    We will never hear anything more about it. Except once in a while, someone from the Guardian will comment how the Caitlan survey “proved” everything, with no further explanation.

  44. OT – the UK met office has another well-balanced press release:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/heat.html

    “The number of heat-related deaths we see could increase by up to 17 times by 2080, because of the increase in heatwaves, as a result of climate change.
    A man frowning as the hot sun beats down on him

    In London alone there could be a five-fold increase on the current death rate of 1.8 per 100,000, soaring to 10.7 per 100,000 by 2080. Other European cities could be hit even harder — Budapest death rates could increase more than 17 times from 5.4 per 100,000 to 93 per 100,000.

    These figures, revealed from a study based on Met Office science, are far higher than previous estimates. Using Met Office projections of future climate, Simon Gosling, of the Walker Institute for Climate System Research at the University of Reading, has predicted how heat-related deaths would be affected in Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney……..”

    In the UK the met office prediction of high (barbecue) temperatures this summer hasn’t been realised yet – after a few days of seasonal warmth a week ago, we have had a week of low temperatures, heavy rain and forecasts of snow in the highlands of Scotland. Yes, I know it’s only weather but …….

    There has recently been UK press coverage of the costs to seaside resorts of the inability of the Met Office to forecast tthe next day’s weather accurately. Over a recent bank holiday weekend they forecast continuous heavy rain for a resort on the South coast of the UK and the day turned out warm and sunny. The resort complained to the press that this misforecast had cost it in excess of £1M in lost revenue when vistors failed to turn up – a graphic example of the cost of getting forecasts wrong: and this was just one day ahead, not 70years!

  45. Ice area is normal and well ahead of 2007 or 2008.

    Flanagan’s interpretation of ice melt trends is as accurate as the MSM interpretation of unemployment trends.

  46. It’s so warm in the Arctic these days that recent immigrants to the area from the West Indies have stolen Catlin’s oil drums to make musical instruments for their steel band.

  47. Frank Lansner (03:19:25) :

    The link you give has the images from cryosphere, and these are not being updated since the 7th of may of 2009. The melt is identical on all dates after that.

    through

    ( change the date in the last part of the link) they are identical.

    So, how they get the images on their main page is a mystery for me.

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

    artistic impressions

  48. I think Nansen/Arctic Roos must be using a different baseline average for this chart (perhaps 2002 to 2008).

    They also provide this chart of monthly NH sea ice extent (which is nearly identical to a chart I built from NSIDC monthly numbers) and even in March and April, the ice extent was 200,000 sq. kms to 300,000 sq. kms below the 1978 to 2008 average.

  49. From “Canada’s National Newspaper”:

    “Apocalypse now

    Whether it’s something in the air (such as greenhouse gases) or something in the economy (such as oil and food prices), the only field where there currently seems to be a boom is in gloom. But it’s not just ranters wearing bathrobes on street corners: Some of the most respected thinkers about science and society are issuing alarming prognostications about humanity coming to an end, with a bang or with a whimper.

    Martin Mittelstaedt surveys the doom patrol”

    “Martin Mittelstaedt is The Globe and Mail’s environment reporter.”

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/apocalypse-now/article1172056/

  50. Hi Steven,

    again, it’s not an “interpretation” it’s just I’m using different data sets. I don’t really thrust the norwegian approach for they have been changing their curves regularly without any kind of explanation. Last time it was a downwards change and some people here were completely crazy about it (manipulation, blablabla). Now they change it upwards and suddenly they should become the reference?

    I truly thrust JAXA the most, for they’ve been using recent technology and always had plausible values. There must be a reason why Anthony chose JAXA instead of the others for his website, no?

  51. Polar bears are great. They are the poster child for the agenda. You can’t use pictures of frozen peaches in Hill country near austin as emotional proof of damage by extremely late and hard frosts.

    We use human shield in pictures to see America bombing mosques and pleade for peace.

    Polar bear shields are a lot more effective that using starving poor that are covered with flies to depict the consequences of high corn prices and food shortages.

    Children also regarding schools and education are used as human shields to raise taxes. You really don’t want our children to miss out on education do you? Punish them for life. Make america non competitive?

  52. Oh, yes and about the connection with La Nina: it is well-known that a delay exists between nina/nino conditions and global temperatures, usually between 3 and 6 months. Lower-than-average SST were observed in that region until the end of Feb/beginning of March. The effects of recently emerging nino-type conditions should be observed within a few months.

  53. Steven Goddard (17:53:23) :

    There isn’t any indication that the ice is “breaking up” in an unusual fashion.

    Temperatures in the Arctic have been running below normal.

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

    Hudson Bay is still almost completely frozen over. I’m sure the Polar Bears are just fine. A shipper would have to be a complete idiot to try to get through the ice, which is ranging from 1.5 metres to 5 metres thick.

    http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm

    Thanks for the links — especially the Arctic temp one.

    I did specifically say “September” in my point about shipping through the Northwest passage. Someone would be nuts (“Catlin nuts” to coin a phrase) to try that now. The multi-year animations of sea ice do, indeed, show a lot of recent flow out between Greenland and Iceland. I don’t have a link though.

    But my main point is we shouldn’t hitch our wagon to such a vulnerable argument. Arctic sea ice is, by any reckoning, a lagging indicator. If the globe cools significant;y in the next few decades, it should be the last thing to recover. We are all well aware of the closed mindedness of the “true believers.” Let them win ANY sub-argument in the vast panoply of issues and they will find renewed faith.

    Thus, I favor sticking to one, solid theme — warmer is better. My favorite line — “Nothing sucks like an Ice Age.” Another good one — “CO2 LITERALLY turns greens things up; CO2 and water are the ultimate green chemicals.”

    If someone asks me whether I think CO2 affects global temperature, my answer is, “I hope so.” Then I show them how the Holocene period could be near it’s end and if CO2 can prevent the next ice age, I’m all for it.

  54. What’s normal?

    Why would anybody think a few decades record is normal for the Earth?

    Science as it is now practised is pathetic.

  55. OT, but this is another propagandist site, they are a fan of Jon Monbiot. On this site he is encouraging people to put together a step emergency plan or something like that. I did not waste my time to sign up and read anything in detail.Look at this site, apparently Yahoo.com gets its world news from these people. I looked for a science blog, but nothing popped out right away.

    http://us.oneworld.net/organizations/media_allies

  56. I have come up with a solution for the problem of the poor starving polar bears.

    First I note that the people who are worried about this are the same ones who don’t want us to hunt poor Bambi. When it is pointed out that Bambi becomes overpopulated and destructive if not hunted, they want to introduce wolves. Far better to have Bambi die the natural death of being torn limb from limb by wolves than to be shot by a hunter.

    With this in mind, my solution is to drop our convicted murderers in among the wolves. The murderers will die a natural death, the polar bears will be fed, and everyone should be satisfied.

  57. I wondered how long it would be before Polar Bears (or “fluffy furry cold blooded ruthless killers who could outswim Mark Spitz”, as I like to call them) were mentioned. WUWT must be lying, you must be playing with the data!

    Honest brokers (butter wouldn’t melt as if) WWF UK are promoting an insidiously mendacious, vomit-inducing, ad campaign on tv at present in an effort to extort money from the public – “Adopt a Polar Bear”, of all things. The only good thing about it is the voice-over, I am convinced it is by beautiful mature British actress Cherrie Lunghi, hubba-hubba (sorry it’s my age) put me out of my misery somebody! I understand that WWF UK get around £4.25M/yr of taxpayers hard earned dosh as part of their funding!). Excellent use of picture “framing” the two or three polar bears on the melting ice flow, if it was actually melting, rather like that iconic photograph of old. One cannot tell whether there was any ice in the background, e.g. squillions of km² of it, as a consequence.

    Peter Wells:-)

    You forgot to add that those fluffy furry wolves would patiently single fluffy furry Bambi out as a target, stalk it, then chase it, & chase, & chase, & chase, until the Bambi was completely exhausted & could run no further, heart pounding furiously, waiting for the enevitable death lunge, then they would rip & tear it limb by bloody limb, & it is still alive when then start adding the salt & pepper! Then the carrion move in to clean the carcass. Much more preferable to a practially sudden cessation of life by a single bullet.

    BTW Its cold, dull, it’s been heavliy wet & stormy over the weekend & some parts of northern UK had sleet & snow on Sunday, that is June 7th!!!!! Pretty much bang on Weatheraction’s prediction/forecast two weeks earlier.

  58. But what happens when one poor wolf doesn’t get enough to eat because we have a long string of skinny murderers and too many polar bears? Do we stop barely feeding the innocent up in the icy north and throw all of the murderers to the wolves further south? What is the carbon footprint of carrying innocent murderers all around the frozen tundra just to feed even more innocent polar bears?

    What if a polar bear doesn’t like murderers, but prefers a vegan diet? Do we fly vegans up north just for that polar bear?

    Global warming must kill 350,000 people per year to meet Kofi’s UN quota every year. Can we throw Eskimo’s to the polar bears if he has not met quota by December, and – if so – what happens to their seal skin parka’s? What if we don’t have enough murderers one year? Can we kill a few unused UN people instead?

  59. Slightly OT, but it seems to be the conventional wisdom that less ice would create a positive feedback loop with insolation causing warmer water and even less ice. Is there any actual research that shows that there is more heat gained in the Arctic Ocean by the lack of ice than heat lost? Considering all of the factors such as angle of incidence, cloud cover, hours of daylight, and air temperature, I can easily imagine that open water above the Arctic Circle creates a cooling feedback and instead of warming.

    Compare average air temps to average water temp and its a fair assumption that the ice acts an insulator preserving heat that would otherwise be lost to the atmosphere. Less ice would then equal more heat loss and a negative feedback.

    See how important positive feedback is to AGW I assume there must be several published peer reviewed papers on this topic someone could direct me to. Thanks in advance.

  60. A few general questions about ice extent:

    How much history was used to compute the averages and standard deviations shown in that plot?

    Is there any compelling reason to assume that ice extent follows a Gaussian distribution (for any given time interval)?

    Thanks

  61. With reference to various comments above, I, also, would like to know the reasons for the difference between the jAXA and Nansen graphs.

  62. Well there has to be a reason why they have all that ice up there in the arctic; we don’t have any here in the San Jose Bay area. But we have lots of sunshine down here, which evidently they don’t up there in the arctic.

    Bit of a nuisance not having a lot of sunshine up in the arctic; when all that sea ice melts at the pole this summer, there won’t be enough sunshine to heat the oceans up to stop it coming back next september.

    And just think how good it would be for our labido if we had a lot of sunshine in the arctic to reflect back out into space and cool the earth.

    Yes I think we should ask President Obama for some ice in San jose so we can really cool the planet, and stop global warming. Then he wouldn’t need any carbon taxes.

  63. While points have been made about temps. responding to the recent La-Nina as of now, the expected up-trend will likely be complicated by the negative PDO and AMO as shown here

    http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

    Apparently I found maybe it isn’t quite so dependent on ENSO, click the ‘inv’ option to see how the chart looked in 1999, notice back then there was a weak positive PDO signal even during the strong La-Nina and the AMO was obviously positive as the AMO is calculated by the N. Atlantic SST’s minus the SST’s of the rest of the world (as Bob Tisdale puts it anyway), and in this chart the very light blue is not negative anomaly (it’s 0 – +0.5)

    With the last El-Nino there was also a positive PDO and AMO, not anymore and recent observations may be in part because of this along with ENSO and the quiet Sun.

  64. 3. The totality of reports here and elsewhere seem to indicate:
    i. Very warm May in Alaska.
    ii. Colder May in Northern US states.
    iii. Very warm in parts of Europe (e.g. Switzerland)

    A common thread to link those anywhere?

    How about a deeply negative AO for most of the month?

  65. I too am confused as too why the Nansen graph appears to be telling a different story than AMSR-E one. One thing I notice about the latter though…

    This appears to be a time of year when the lines historically bottleneck. They don’t appear to start to separate until after July. It’s clearer still after August, and the conclusion of the ice melt tale told to the future is told around September. I personally can wait before drawing conclusions.

    Somebody said something a while ago here at WUWT which is turning out to be prophetic on both charts. It was back when the line for 2009 was rising above the others in early May, I think it was. He said not to get excited about that, because the geographic areas which did not freeze to normal expectations this year were usually the areas which were the first to melt, so it would look like a high ice year for a short burst until everything got caught up, then the real tale of ice would start to be told.

  66. OT, but it’s always interesting when the MSM hits a sceptical note. Try this Daily Telegraph (UK) leader from today, commenting on the latest wild predictions from the UK Met Office What a shower.

    Little by little, we breach the citadel.

  67. Rebar,

    The Arctic minimum occurs in September when the sun is just above the horizon. Near the solstice (now) the Arctic is full of ice. The albedo argument is overblown.

  68. We’re experiencing some new record lows here in Sweden:

    A place called Västervik/Gladhammar -0.1° had a new record this night. Previous record was 0.0° in June 1867.
    Ulricehamn -1.1°, lowest since 1935.
    Lund 3.6°, lowest since 1962.
    Norrköping 0.2°, lowest since 1962.
    Kristianstad 1.1°, lowest since 1975.

    But… This is only weather of course. ;)

  69. Before anyone panics, please review the June data at IJIS since 2003. June is practially a chokepoint historically for ice extent. You can put the whole recent record under a hat in June –good years and bad. It is the middle of July thru the end of September that will tell the tale this year.

  70. “…so it would look like a high ice year for a short burst until everything got caught up, then the real tale of ice would start to be told…”

    i think nevertheless the “real story” in 2008/2009 were temperature related winter increases. summer ice is a long backlagging indicator dominated mostly by previous years leftovers, ocean currents and winds.

  71. Bsaed on this, it’s all moot anyway. Maybe Al was right? (I’m beig facetious here)

    http://climateprogress.org/2009/06/04/noaa-puts-out-el-nino-watch/

    As this apropo to sea ice extent are there any counters, or at least explanations for this swift and sudden “discovery”? God forbid that Dr Hansen have the facts fit his own predictions of an El Nino and new records.

    Usually Bill has some great links on ocean currents, SST’s and whatnot.

  72. So it begs the question, for how many years does artic ice extent need to grow before it’s no longer shrinking according to the AGW crowd?

  73. RoyFOMR (09:52:23) :

    OT but Gavin is looking for sympathetic reviewers to help sell his new book. Any volunteers?

    The book will only sell to the true believers. There after it will sit on the coffee tables of waiting rooms the world over.

  74. Patrik (12:18:55) :

    There’s been a lot of that record cold “weather” for 2 years now.

    But that heat in Australia wiped it all out. ;-)

  75. Mikey (11:18:58) :

    …This appears to be a time of year when the lines historically bottleneck.
    They don’t appear to start to separate until after July. It’s clearer still…

    You are right on. At this moment, IARC-JAXA has practically no predictive power
    for guessing which way it goes in the next months.

    Flanagan may see it different, but everything which does fit to him is climate.
    Everything else is simply weather.

    Coming to weather:
    June ís rather cold here. May be precursor of a lame summer.
    We hand a great April. There were days when even with T-shirt it was
    warm. In the last two weeks, I never missed to have a pullover or jacket on.
    Was necessary.

    But thats only weather, yeah.

    Had it same at end of March 1981 (After a pretty cold February). I was out
    with t_shirt on March, 26th. The summer of ’81 was forgettable.

    Here, the warmest year was 1994. For the remaining year, if the other months
    are on average (1997-2008-mean), it may become the coldest year since 1996.

  76. Coming to ‘Simply weather again':
    I’m living in Germany, near Frankfurt (or Bank-Furt, as some do say)
    in a rather small village.
    Locally, the opinion reg. ‘Climate Change’ or ‘Global Warming’ is increasingly
    getting this way:

    “They did allways tell to us the economy is OK,
    when everybody – with at least a cell between his ears –
    did recognize, it’s getting worse. Now we are at the start of worse.”

    “They did allways tell to us its getting warmer, when everybody …
    … did recognize, warming did stop. Now we are at start of some colder years.”

    You can’t sell farmers, hobby hunters, workers with a ‘fresh air job’,
    gardeners… all the plain people with some longtime personal
    expirience with weather and climate for some decennials the
    AGW hype.

    The buck stops here. The climate, too.

  77. Hunter
    How ya doin’, Mr. Romm?

    The last time I looked, he had turned his attention to the ice thickness (and therefore, volume), even going so far as to cite the Catlin Expedition in support! The last refuge of a scoundrel, perhaps.. :-)

  78. Steve Goddard

    It is interesting to examine old documents as they hold many clues to the state of the arctic ice at various times in our history. That it is highly variable in depth and extent is obvious from the numerous accounts passed down to us, and that climate changed frequently is also evident.

    This from a collection of papers collected by the Royal Geographic society dated 1875. They record expeditions to Greenland, Siberia and many other places as far back as 1821 and those reports in turn talk of first hand observation by people 40 years before that, so we have excellent evidence of actual observations back to around 1780.

    This is one extract from 1868 concerning a British expedition to Greenland, a land which was then an almost unknown quantity.

    “We lived for the greater portion of a whole summer at Jakohshavn,
    a little Danish post, 69° 13′ n., close to which is the great Jakohshavn
    ice-fjord, which annually pours an immense quantity of icebergs into
    Disco Bay. In early times this inlet was quite open for boats ; and
    Nunatak (a word meaning a ” land surrounded by ice “) was once an
    Eskimo settlement. There is (or was in 1867 ) an old man (Manyus)
    living at Jakohshavn whose grandfather was born there. The Tessi-
    usak, an inlet of Jakohshavn ice-fjord, could then be entered by
    boats. Now-a-days Jakohshavn ice-fjord is so choked up by bergs
    that it is impossible to go up in boats, and such a thing is never
    thought of. The Tessiusak must be reached by a laboriousjourney
    over land ; and Nunatak is now only an island surrounded by the in-
    land ice, at a distance — a place where no man lives, or has, in the
    memory of any one now living, reached.

    Both along its shore and that of the main fjord are numerous remains of dwellings long unin-habitable, owing to it being now impossible to gain access to them by sea. The inland ice is now encroaching on the land. At one time it seems to have covered many portions of the country now bare.
    In a few places glaciers have disappeared. I believe that this has
    been mainly owing to the inlet having got shoaled by the deposit of
    glacier-clay through the rivers already described. I have little
    doubt that — Graah’s dictum to the contrary, notwithstanding — a
    great inlet once stretched across Greenland not far from this place,
    as represented on the old maps, but that it has also now got choked
    up with consolidated bergs.

    In former times the natives used to describe pieces of timber drifting out of this inlet, and even tell of people coming across ; and stories yet linger among them of the former occurrence of such proofs of the openness of the inlet.”

    Extract two

    “1 ‘ Reise til Ostkysten af Gronland,’ 1832, and translated by Macdougall, 1837.
    There is another bay which I could not investigate to its bottom on account of the immense masses of ice that were setting out, and which is called by the natives Ikak and Ikarsek {Sound). It runs between Karsarsuk and Kingatok, and its length is from Karsarsuk to its end about 15 German miles ; it is situated in 72 D 48′, and the sea, at its entrance, is covered by numerous islands. All the natives living in this neighbourhood assured me unanimously that there had been a passage formerly to the other side of the land.”

    Third extract

    ” An observation which it is interesting to mention here, and which gives a
    proof of the very little difference between the temperature of the surface and that at some depth, is mentioned in the Voyage of Captain Graah, p. 21. He says,” The 5th of May, 1828, in lat. 57° 35′ N., and 36° 36′ w., Gr., tbe temperature of the surface was found 6°-3 (46°-2 Fahr.), and at a depth of 660 feet 5°5 + K. (44°-5Fahr.).” This proves that there is no cold submarine current in the place alluded to to the s.e. of Cape Farewell. A still more conclusive experiment is recorded by Sir Edward Parry in the account of his first voyage, June 13, 1819 : in lat. 57° 51′ n., long. 41° 5′, with a very slight southerly current, the surface tempera-ture was 40J° Fahr. ; and at 235 fathoms 39°, a difference of only 1J°.”

    Fourth extract

    “156 DR. EAE, 1853-54— ANDERSON, 1855.

    Cape Parry was passed at midnight, and we came across some heavy ice, being the first met with since leaving the straits. On the 30th it was so close as to compel us to haul in shore, affording a great contrast with the state of the ice at the same period two years ago, when the pack was 30 miles from the land.”

    fifth extract

    “Until within the last nine centuries the great continent of Green-
    land was, so far as our knowledge extends, untenanted by a single
    human being — the bears and reindeer held undisputed possession.
    There was a still more remote period when fine forests of exogenous
    trees clothed the hill-sides of Disco, when groves waved, in a
    milder climate, over Banks Island and Melville Island, and when
    corals and sponges flourished in the now frozen waters of Barrow’s
    Strait. Of this period we know nothing ; but it is at least certain
    that when Erik the Red planted his little colony of hardy Norse-
    men at the mouth of one of the Greenland fiords, in the end of the
    tenth century, he apparently found the land far more habitable
    than it is to-day.

    For three centuries and a half the Norman colonies of Greenland
    continued to flourish ; upwards of 300 small farms and villages
    were built along the shores of the fiords from the island of Disco to
    Cape Farewell….and Greenland became the see of a Bishop. The ancient Icelandic and Danish accounts of the transactions are corroborated by the interesting remains which may be seen in the Scandinavian museum at Copenhagen.

    During the whole of this period no indigenous race was
    seen in that land, and no one appealed to dispute the possession of
    Greenland with the Norman colony. A curious account of a
    voyage is extant, during which the Normans reached a latitude
    north of Cape York ; yet there is no mention of any signs of a
    strange race. The Normans continued to be the sole tenants of
    Greenland, at least until the middle of the fourteenth century.”

    There is very much more in a similar vein which matches with the findings of the Royal Society who also found great variations of ice from year to year, as is also recorded in the annals of the Hudson Bay co and the Board of trade journals dating back to 1676 covering Newfoundland.

    Interestingly the latter mentions for 1817;

    ‘That Newfounbland is forced to face another winter of misery’ a mention in 1818 of the ‘long and vicious winter’ in 1821 ‘winters of wretchedness and distress’ and in 1822 ‘rigours of a Newfoundland winter’

    Note;-1815 is now known as the year without a summer and clearly this had a profound effect on the climate of the Arctic. Previous mentions of harsh winters in Newfoundland are hard to find .

    In fact there had been a long period of warm summers in the Far North which was noted for several decades by whalers which prompted this exchange in 1817: (shortened version)

    President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817 (Royal Society of London 1817):

    “It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated….

    ….. this affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant nations.” A request was made for the Royal Society to assemble an expedition to go and investigate.

    An examination of these old documents will illustrate the current circumstances of diminshed sea ice are not at all unusual and have been documented for centuries.

    Tonyb

  79. @ KlausB (14:45:48) :

    “June ís rather cold here. May be precursor of a lame summer.
    We hand a great April. There were days when even with T-shirt it was
    warm. In the last two weeks, I never missed to have a pullover or jacket on.”

    We had record highs/near record highs last week.

    Weather is not climate!

  80. The std deviation bands around the NANSEN data seem very tight to me. You have three years in a row running at what seems to be 2-3 stnd dev’s from the mean? Intuitively, that seems odd.

    And then in 2009: On May 22, the data is normal and by June 7, it’s 1.5 stnd deviations from the mean? There’s that much short term intra-seasonal volatility and those stnd dev bands are right?

  81. Anthony—

    Here’s a nice article by a fellow meteorologist, asking for proper science in the debate.

    http://www.colby.edu/colby.mag/issues/current/articles.php?issueid=49&articleid=950&dept=fromthehill

    He wrote it for an alumni magazine for a rather liberal college and wrote me when I complemented him:

    “Actually, I have not been crucified at all. Rather lots of the comments are similar to yours. It’s been great to have this kind of support!
    Thanks.
    Dave”

    (sorry to be off topic, but Anthony requested OT items to be placed in comments rather than personal emails)

  82. Peter Plail

    Back in 2003 Europe experienced a heat wave which was wrongly blamed on manmade green house gases. Modern science has shown that natural planetary cycles like the Atlantic ocean surface temperature oscillations [as measured by AMO] was the likely and major cause. The AMO in 2003 reached a monthly peak level of 0.504 , the fourth warmest ever, and the 6th warmest ever on an average annual basis. Today the UK AGW scientists are again claiming that Great Britain will have another 70 year heat wave yet seem to again ignore ocean cycles which on average cause 2 warm but also 2 cool cycles per century rather than just worst case warming as this study suggests. It is like in economics, projecting 100 years of unprecedented boom years and ignoring all recessions which occur every 10 years. Their 2080 forecast is a meaningless worst case scenario. The sun is going into low activity and solar heating will be diminished as well for the next several solar cycles. http://www.dailytech.com/NASA+Study+Acknowledges+Solar+Cycle+Not+Man+Responsible+for+Past+Warming/article15310.htm
    Here is what the scientists who studied the 2003 European heat wave concluded;
    Overall, our results provide strong evidence that during the 20th century the AMO had an important role in modulating boreal summer climate on multidecadal time scales. We have focused here on time mean anomalies, but some of the most important impacts are likely to be associated with changes in the frequency of extreme events. There is evidence that the frequency of U.S. droughts (4) and the frequency of European heat waves (23) are both sensitive to Atlantic SSTs.

    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5731/115

  83. OT… Why can’t we get the updated sea level numbers and glacier numbers?

    I have a funny feeling that they aren’t following the models.

  84. The jet stream is blowing ice out of the circle and into warmer waters. The winds are not overly strong or unusual as they were in 2007. But still, it results in fast melt. But melt that occurs elsewhere. The Arctic is not warming. The ice is moving to warmer waters. No need to be alarmed.

  85. maz2 (06:51:32) :
    Brace yourselves for apocalypse now

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/apocalypse-now/article1172056/

    from that article:

    The idea of End Times, or apocalypses, has been around as long as religion. Until recently, it has been a mainstay of Christian fundamentalism. But the notion that the world as we know it is about to end – this time with an environmental rather than a religious-inspired bang – lately has been making inroads in more mainstream and progressive-leaning circles, including activists, scientists and pundits.

    Another reason to be skeptical is that the previous round of such worries turned out to be overblown. Around 1970, two influential books fostered popular pessimism, the Club of Rome report The Limits to Growth and Paul Erhlich’s The Population Bomb (which predicted millions would die by famines in the 1970s and 1980s). Neither came to pass.

    Exactly! Or “right on!”” in 70’s speak. Apocalypse Now is really Apocalypse Again,
    and with many of the same prophets. I think the first Earth Day in 1970 is about the beginning of the mainstream environmental movement which is characterized by the slogan “We have met the enemy and he is us”, made famous by a Pogo cartoon at that time:

    By now we have had several generations who have grown up with that point of view. It’s no wonder that almost everyone, from the general public to the MSM to scientists assume that this is true. The environmentalist have done good things for the environment but now they care more about saving the world than saving the environment. Save the whales has become save the polar bears.

    For fun, look at the prophesies of apocalypse from 1970, courtesy of Wikipedia. (look now before the revisionists get to it):

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Day

    Concerns at the time of Earth Day 1970

    In 2000, Ron Bailey, the scientific editor of Reason Magazine, wrote an article considering predictions and warnings made at the time of the inaugural Earth Day and progress that had been made since then, suggesting that much of the alarmism of the environmental movement was unfounded. In particular, he mentioned these quotes:[13]

    Denis Hayes, the chief organizer for the first Earth Day, wrote, “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation.”

    Senator Gaylord Nelson, the founder of Earth Day, stated, “Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”

    Peter Gunter, a professor at North Texas State University, stated, “… by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions…. By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”

    Paul Ehrlich, author of The Population Bomb, predicted that between 1980 and 1989, 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would starve to death.

    Life Magazine wrote, “… by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half.”

    Ecologist Kenneth Watt stated, “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

    Watt also stated, “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil.”

    The vision of the future in movies changed about then too. For example, Mad Max (1979). Apocalypse Now (1979). Star Wars (1977).

  86. Forecasts up there are looking warmer than the S.F. Bay Area (almost 80 in Middle Tanana Valley). It’s freezing cold where I’m at… unseasonably cold. It’s 10 – 20 degrees warmer up there… they can have some of this down here.

  87. Not much forcast…. the best way to know about the future, as Winston Churchill among other noted, is to know a lot about the past.
    Since computermodels of this Earth forecasters aren’t up to the standard one would expect to find, given that some of those who tries to make believe they know so much about the present situation.
    But one thing they don’t know about is the past.
    Ice cores examples, used to present the situation of the past, never ever can present situation from one longitude and latitude 10 years before an observationpoint was established. Let alone from 1000 years ago.

    But let’s look at facts from Fritiof Nansen’s Polarexpedition in 1888 as shown on a map at urlFram’s icedrift, Norsk Polarhistorie As seen the ‘_ _ _’ is the route the ship took when sailing and the unbroken line the route the icedrift made the ship travel. THIS type of facts are real. Ice drift is a wellknown fact among scholars of geology, oceanography, hydrology and so on, given they learnt what the teachers at high school and university taught… if they didn’t they missed their arguments for their CO2 case.

  88. Hello beloved one

    Greeting in the name of our lord Jesus Christ, i am mrs Joy David from france, a widow to late mr lazurus David now a new christian convert suffering from long time cancer of breast, from all indication my condition is really deteriorating and it’s quite obvious that i won’t live more than two months according to my doctor because the stage of this cancer is very bad and during the period of our marriage we couldn’t produce any child

    My late husband was a very wealthy and after his death i inherited all his business and wealth, due to my situation now i decided to give some part of my wealth to contribute to the development of churches in Africa, America, Asia and Europe and i selected you after visiting this website and gone through your profile i prayed over it, I am donating the sum seventeen million five hundred thousand dollars($17,500.000.000.00 usd) to the less privilleged

    Please get back to me on my mail address david.joy27@yahoo.com for more detaills

    Thanks and remain bless

    Wait for your urgent reply

    Your sister in Christ

    Mrs Joy David

  89. Joy 147

    I think you have the wrong web site.

    Gavin Schmidt and Joe Romm are the extremely gullible ones. I suggest you repost this on Real Climate and Climate Progress.

    Tip: You’ll just need to mention AGW somewhere then they will be all ears.

    Tonyb

  90. I did not read through all of this but I seem to recall some global warming fan on another topic showing the old chart and making statements of all the ice melting. Seems like they were point fingers at someone and yelling I told ya so.

    Better get out the pickles for the crow sandwich, there is no AGW.

    I wish we could gather up all the people that want total Federal Gov. control of their lives and give them their own nation. Maybe we need to split the USA up? I bet the Government controlled one would like North Korea in 10 years and the non Government controlled one to look like South Korea.

    Wake up America!

  91. Where else other than in publications attempting to cause alarm, could a one standard deviation band be considered “normal” ?

    2 or 3 standard deviations is far more realistic … but that would defeat the purpose.

  92. Sorry to burst the [snip] bubble but the sea ice extent is descending from the 30 year norm yet again. How long will it be before we hear choruses of these measurements being described as inaccurate?

  93. Dr A Burns (16:34:47) :
    Where else other than in publications attempting to cause alarm, could a one standard deviation band be considered “normal” ?

    2 or 3 standard deviations is far more realistic

    Not for a sample size of 28.

  94. dennis ward (22:48:36)

    Why does this “burst the [snip] bubble”? The real question is if the 2009 minimum is greater than the 2007/2008 minima or not. That question cannot be answered for several months. If 2009 has more ice at the minimum, that would be evidence for the melting trend reversing, given that 2008 was greater that 2007. Too early to tell, but so far no indication that its going to be worse than 2007.

    I am curious though, if the NSIDC data still reflects the faulty sensor. The drop for NSIDC appears more dramatic that that from other sources. Steve Goddard – any insight?

    Cheers, K.

  95. Anthony,

    Do you see anything fishy in the nsidc.org arctic sea ice extent graphic? After sea ice extent was near “normal” they went off line for a while, and when they came back up their graphic shows a precipitous decline, dipping below the 2007 line. This is especially odd when you consider the Nansen sea ice extent revision. WUWT?

    Keep up the good work,
    Jim

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