During the the last week, NSIDC graphs of arctic sea ice extent have been dropping so steeply that many have called them into question. Finally NSIDC ended the daily updates and have left the last “good” image of May 21st in place in the web folder, but have placed an “out of order” sign on the website:
As we first pointed out to NSIDC back on 2/18/09 (even though it “wasn’t worth blogging about”) the sensor has been on the fritz for quite awhile, calling the whole arctic sea ice series into question. From their most recent announcement, it looks like that it is now “DOA”:
Here’s what they say now.From NSIDC’s web site:
Update: May 26 2009 The daily image update has been temporarily suspended because of large areas of missing data in the past week. NSIDC currently gets its data from the SSM/I sensor on the DMSP F13 satellite, which is nearing the end of its operational life and experiencing intermittent problems.
NSIDC has been working on a transition to a newer sensor on the F17 satellite for several months. At this time, we have more than a year of data from F17, which we are using to intercalibrate with F13 data. The F17 data are not yet available for near-real-time updates. We will resume posting daily updates as soon as possible, either from F13, if the present problem is resolved, or from F17, when the transition is complete.
It doesn’t look promising to get any usable data for the last 6 months or more, since it clearly has been corrupted by the sensor issues.
Meanwhile the AMSR-E on the Aqua satellite chugs right along on JAXA:
From NANSEN, here is a map showing differences between AMSR and SSMI. There are some huge chunks missing.
See the source image page here
(h/t to Fred Nieuwenhuis for the link)
Personally I think it was folly for NSIDC to try to use different channels on the DMSP F13 satellite to nurse the dataset along, as we’ve seen it is not just the single channel on SSM/I sensor that has had problems.
Transitioning to the DMSP F17 satellite “may” be a plan, but the AQUA satellite and teh AMSR-E package seems to be quite reliable and with a number of years of life ahead. It is also used by many other agencies to reliably gauge sea-ice.
IMHO, NSIDC is doing themselves no favors by sticking with the DMSP SSM/I satellite platform package. The science world has moved on with AQUA’s AMSR-E, and it is time for NSIDC to move on as well.
Otherwise, they are going to be “has beens” using older technology. Get with the program guys. You need good supporting data so incoming director Mark Serreze can give us his fabulous forecasts and media soundbites that don’t seem to come true.
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Regarding the AMSR-E data..what is the cause of that blip in the graph coming up in the next few days? It consistenly edges up almost every year at the exact same time.
That’s the dude who will be heading up NSIDC? The ponytail and the “back in the old days” flowered shirt gives this guy away as a greeny who tells tall tales. He will destroy the scientific integrity of NSIDC by having drunk the coolaid of the need to tell alarming stories in order to decrease pollution through costly mandates and taxes, and to hell with science. Come to think of it, maybe “Science”, is the new political party.
UH OH. Thought summat was oop again: although I was not the first to query it on this board.
And by the way I think it is the Ar-C-tic not the artic: which in the UK is a type of lorry.
Kindest Regards
The NANSEN measurement of Arctic ice extent also does not match up with AMSR-E ice-extent. Do they also use the DMSP SSM/I satellite?
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext_small.png
Regards
OK, so, who else is questioning the extent of the 2007 minimum?
I’ve been noticing the big voids in the data for the last week or so and just was hoping they’d get it back up soon. Dang; I like having multiple data sources, even if one is a bit archaic.
These voids were not there in previous years, so the 2007 & 2008 minimums are not in doubt. The agreement with the JAXA AMSR-E data validates this. (Did I mention that I like having multiple data sources?)
I’m questioning if we’re not already above 2003. I’ve struggled to characterize what drives the AGW crowd. Now I think it’s a new (or old) pagan religion with Gaia as its deity.
I have the same question as Don Rayburg… why is there a blip in the same few days each year? Is the sensor being degaussed or something?
Well, Cryosphere still has recent images, though they’re looking pretty awful.
A year ago vs. today is available at
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=05&fd=25&fy=2008&sm=05&sd=25&sy=2009
Okay, call it truly awful. Looks like things really began to fall apart in the first week of May.
It is all automated. Nothing can go wrong go wrong go wrong go wrong go wrong go wro
Ric, it appears that Cryosphere does not have recent images for comparative purposes. Notice that May 25th is for 2008, not 2009, in your link.
Count me in too on the blip in the data around June 1. I’ve been watching to see what happens this year.
Maybe whatever they want to happen will happen, after all, they’re here from the government and they’re here to help us.
How fortuitous…well, never fear, I’m they’ll have everything right as rain in time for Copenhagen.
Ric Werme (17:57:36)
Well how does that compare with this from the same site?
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
What’s falling apart, the Arctic or the sensors or the data management?
Looks like the “sensor drift” aka: calibration
problems have returned. Missing chunks the
size of California might be missed again. Maybe
they can review the uplinked calibration offsets
and receiver biases to help them find out just
where the failure in real data collection is.
The difference between SSMI and AMSR can be seen here:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/Arctic-ice-concentration-maps-from-SSMI-and-AMSRE
That comparison which shows the “ice breaking up” in May 2009, if you look closely shows the WINTER SNOW COVER THIS YEAR is far more extensive than last year’s snow cover. I figure the sea ice is a different sensor/parameter.
I suspect the snow sensing is “intact”. So the real question is…Maunder Minimum Winters anyone?
Ric, yeah that looks pretty awful. That perfectly round spot in the center of the image looks healthy though, so I’m a true believer. Nothing could possibly be wrong with this picture.
And pay no attention to the text below the comparison. That was February. That was then, this is now, and they wouldn’t put these images on the internet unless it was true.
Right?
Well JAXA seems fine to me right now, though the Cryosphere comparison images should be pulled because the sensor quality is so bad.
When it comes to ice and water and stuff, I remember the post where it said the PDO is going back to neutral, the latest SST map from NOAA however shows the horseshoe shaped cold anomaly staying together and somewhat re-solidifying itself.
CPT. Charles (18:24:53) :
How fortuitous…well, never fear, I’m they’ll have everything right as rain in time for Copenhagen.
Looks like a job for SuperMANN –
Data Interpolation faster than a speeding bullet…
Computation more powerful than an uncommented Fortran Program…
Able to create tall hockey sticks with a single press of the enter key…
(Apologies…)
Erg, forgot smiley. Does -lack- of sunspots affect satellites also? 🙂
That blip was explained before. It is a satellite adjustment for the time of year in it’s orbit, or something like that. Can’t remember exactly but it is a necessary adjustment and nothing unseemly.
I would say that there should be no reason for delaying the new data. But there is one and that is that the new data shows what’s really going on and that is a lot more sea ice than normal. I bet they are trying to calibrate an output that jives with a lower extent. Why do I say this? First they got to tow the warming banner as far as they can. Second, its impossible to get the data right until you’ve had time enough to jack with the I/O, hence the delay.
If these boys had any sense they would just go ahead and let the truth in the data be revealed. Then they could just say “the data shows dramatic sea ice recovery”. When they line themselves up with the truth they can all feel better about themselves. Obama’s not gonna fire any government employees. Why if they they were forceful enough they could single handedly take over the headlines on this whole AGW thing and turn it 180 degress on the “story of extended cooling”. They’d be heroes. We all know what the next few winters are going to be like (colder and colder).
Sorry for rambling but it just seems so easy. When they report the truth they can all line up for the press themselves. Don’t let any one else do their talking. I say its about time to learn some new names at NSIDC
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_extent.png
Yes, it does look a bit funky…
fred (18:23:38) :
Count me in too on the blip in the data around June 1. I’ve been watching to see what happens this year.
Parameters used in the processing of the data are changed on June 1st and October 15th to account for the changes in the surface of the ice (i.e. wetting) which cause differences in the signature. This switch can result in the ‘blip’ you see.