During the the last week, NSIDC graphs of arctic sea ice extent have been dropping so steeply that many have called them into question. Finally NSIDC ended the daily updates and have left the last “good” image of May 21st in place in the web folder, but have placed an “out of order” sign on the website:
As we first pointed out to NSIDC back on 2/18/09 (even though it “wasn’t worth blogging about”) the sensor has been on the fritz for quite awhile, calling the whole arctic sea ice series into question. From their most recent announcement, it looks like that it is now “DOA”:
Here’s what they say now.From NSIDC’s web site:
Update: May 26 2009 The daily image update has been temporarily suspended because of large areas of missing data in the past week. NSIDC currently gets its data from the SSM/I sensor on the DMSP F13 satellite, which is nearing the end of its operational life and experiencing intermittent problems.
NSIDC has been working on a transition to a newer sensor on the F17 satellite for several months. At this time, we have more than a year of data from F17, which we are using to intercalibrate with F13 data. The F17 data are not yet available for near-real-time updates. We will resume posting daily updates as soon as possible, either from F13, if the present problem is resolved, or from F17, when the transition is complete.
It doesn’t look promising to get any usable data for the last 6 months or more, since it clearly has been corrupted by the sensor issues.
Meanwhile the AMSR-E on the Aqua satellite chugs right along on JAXA:
From NANSEN, here is a map showing differences between AMSR and SSMI. There are some huge chunks missing.
See the source image page here
(h/t to Fred Nieuwenhuis for the link)
Personally I think it was folly for NSIDC to try to use different channels on the DMSP F13 satellite to nurse the dataset along, as we’ve seen it is not just the single channel on SSM/I sensor that has had problems.
Transitioning to the DMSP F17 satellite “may” be a plan, but the AQUA satellite and teh AMSR-E package seems to be quite reliable and with a number of years of life ahead. It is also used by many other agencies to reliably gauge sea-ice.
IMHO, NSIDC is doing themselves no favors by sticking with the DMSP SSM/I satellite platform package. The science world has moved on with AQUA’s AMSR-E, and it is time for NSIDC to move on as well.
Otherwise, they are going to be “has beens” using older technology. Get with the program guys. You need good supporting data so incoming director Mark Serreze can give us his fabulous forecasts and media soundbites that don’t seem to come true.
Re: MattN (17:49:35) :
If the Administration’s Science Secy, Dr. Chu, is promoting using white paint on roofs, what do you bet that some of his cronies back at Berkeley have the franchise on getting Government money to promote or produce the product?
These guys don’t flap their lips for free.
Frank Lansner (15:24:01) :
Snow cover markedly bigger this year than last year:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/20082009.gif
Not according to this site:
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1
Failing sensors, disputing images, sites reporting opposite results… what to believe?
Phil. (19:34:48) :
Well, for a certain value of truth, both can be true, it all ends up on what one would believe.
Rutgers or our lying eyes. We seem to be prejudiced towards our eyes.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=05&fd=27&fy=2008&sm=05&sd=27&sy=2009
F13’s most recent problem is that it’s now down to its last functional on-board data recorder (there are four recorders when new). Because the recorder cannot playback stored data and record new data at the same time, there is a gap whenever the playback occurs. When there is more than one recorder available, recording starts on another recorder while the first is played back. Because the main downlink station is in Greenland, this frequently puts the gap over the Arctic.
The recorder that just failed more than likely is gone for good, but there’s a small chance it could be restored to service.
F13’s age is almost triple the design life, so it’s had a good run.
MattN (17:49:35) :
IBD has a comment on the concept of a Department of Energy and what it’s mission should be, as long as we (since Jimmy Carter) have one.
Dave S
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=328317915759660
Also, check their daily cartoon…
Just a quick note to the moderator – please edit the article to remove the “TEH” which I have quoted below:
Transitioning to the DMSP F17 satellite “may” be a plan, but the AQUA satellite and teh
Ric, an entire ice cap simply does not shatter into a billion pieces like that….Either you altered the image to be funny or their satellite is screwed up worse than the one the NSIDC is using…
This must be very difficult time for what I imagine are many conscientious and honorable NSIDC employees. Some of the comments about their agency in this and other blogs must make them cringe with either shame or indignation. I hope they recognize that the skepticism and distrust being widely expressed was of the agency’s own making when its grotesquely transparent “agenda” began to overide scientific integrity. All anyone has to do to become convinced my accusation is true is to read NSIDC press releases in which “colder” and “more ice” are transposed into such tortured terms as “fith hottest in….” and “third lowest ice extent in….”.
Translating the current ASMR graph into “NSIDC speak”, I would judge we’re at about “the fifth lowest ice extent in five years”. Translation into straightforward English: The ice has built back up to where it was five years ago at this time.
Pamela Gray (19:58:21) :
“Glenn, I would double check your site. It also looks contaminated. Ice doesn’t melt in square, triangle, or rectangle shapes.”
I beg to dicker. Today the ice appears to have made a nice diamond shape over the Pole.
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_ncepice.html
They still show the sea ice area and extent here:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/daily.html
The missing areas change from day to day so that you can, if patient, fill in where the whole picture.
Sorry to bump an older thread, but this one is about ice. My question is about the AMSR-E extent chart linked on this blog. Nearly each year’s extent makes this little line-dance hippity-hop jump right at this time of year, and this year’s extent is proving to be no exception. Anyone besides me find this odd?
It must be something with the June 1 date and how they handle their data, I assume.
Such a long thread of futile “see, it isn’t really getting warmer”, speculation from such a slender basis of fact. Grasping at straws and “agenda theories” and ultimately turning out to be much ado about nothing.
[snip ad hom to many people on this thread]
By the way, did you see the IEEE-USA 2009 policy advice announcements,
http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/positions/energypolicy.pdf
including:
“IEEE-USA’s New National Energy Policy Recommends Ways United States Can Break Its Addiction to Oil, Mitigate Climate Change” ?
Engineers deal with facts. Like all other scientific and technical professional bodies whose member’s expertise bears directly on the challenge of Climate Change, the 215,500 members of IEEE-USA have published their collective conclusion that Climate Change is real, due to human activity and that acting wisely now can limit how bad things get.
The members of IEEE-USA had quite a varied and spirited response on both sides of the USA H1-B visa issue. There is no real opposition to the IEEE-USA Climate Change Policy Advice announcement.
Engineers deal with facts. Human Caused Climate Change is a fact which isn’t going away, better get used to it.
By the way, that bathtub ring around the Reservoir behind Hoover Dam is 120 ft tall now. Some people can’t catch a clue even when it is that obvious.
http://www.arachnoid.com/NaturalResources/
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/06/06/state/n000030D16.DTL
Breaking your addiction to oil can save money. According to ICBC most auto owners in my province spend Cdn $230 per month on fuel. It costs me either Cdn $35 or $70 to put gas in my Yaris each month, depending on whether I fill it up once or twice. Even at that low fuel consumption I have saved nearly a kilobuck a year since it replaced the mini-van we previously owned. The Yaris burns half as much fuel for the same distance and holds all 5 of us when we go somewhere as a family.
I use transit to commute to work each day, like my 2 oldest children. My employer pays the entire cost of my “transportation” expense, saving money over subsidizing a parking spot by $105 per month.
Many of the younger IT folks at work are quite serious about avoiding the use of personal autos. One asked me how long I had been commuting by transit. When I said since 1985/Feb he smiled and said that was almost as long as he had been alive.
I also use my transit pass evenings and weekends, particularly for short trips to the 4 supermarkets and 3 malls within 15 minutes travel time by transit from my home. My wife often borrows the transit pass, leaving the Yaris at home.
What is so difficult about driving less and saving money, while reducing carbon emissions?