Guest post by Guillermo Gonzalez
I recently happened upon the SORCE/TIM website and decided to look up the plot of the full total solar irradiance (TSI) dataset (http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/data/tsi_data.htm#plots)
The SORCE mission began collecting TSI data in February 2003.
I was curious to see if the variations in the TSI had begun to rise yet, perhaps indicating a start to cycle 24. Visual inspection of the SORCE TSI plot showed just the opposite – variations continue to decline in amplitude. If cycle 24 has started, there are no signs of it in these data.
We can be a bit more quantitative if we examine, instead, a plot of TSI variance with time. I produced such a plot using the daily average TSI data provided on the SORCE web site.
The red data are variance values calculated at two-week intervals. The blue curve is the smoothed data calculated in the same way as smoothed sunspot numbers (basically a 12-month running average). Note, the vertical axis is plotted on a logarithmic scale.
To compare the recent TSI variance trend with the previous sunspot minimum, I looked up the ACRIM2 daily average TSI data at: http://www.acrim.com/Data%20Products.htm
These data are plotted on the same scale as the SORCE data. The smoothed data show a minimum TSI variance near the beginning of 1996, some months before sunspot minimum (October 1996). Notice that the minimum value for the variance during the 1996 minimum was about an order of magnitude larger than the present TSI variance.
The SORCE web site quotes long-term 1-sigma precision (relative accuracy) of their TSI measurements to be 0.001%/yr. This corresponds to a variance of 2 ´ 10-4 W2 m-4. However, the precision should be considerably better than this on the 2-week timescale that I selected for calculating the variance. Unfortunately, I have not been able to locate a quote for the estimated precision of the ACRIM2 measurements. It would be worthwhile to know if the minimum TSI variance of the previous sunspot minimum measured by ACRIM2needs to be corrected for the instrumental precision.
Guillermo Gonzalez writes on his background:
I’m an astronomer, though my present title is associate professor of physics at Grove City College, PA. I wrote a paper (in Solar Physics) with Ken Schatten back in 1987 on predicting the next solar maximum with geomagnetic indices. That was my only contribution on anything having to do with the Sun-Earth connection, but I also got a letter published in Physics Today in 1997 wherein I urged readers to takethe Sun-Earth climate connection more seriously.
These days most of my research is on extrasolar planets.
UPDATE: I received a suggestion for an overlay via email from Terry Dunleavy and I’ve worked one up below. This was done graphically. I took great care to get the two lined up correctly. Note however that the datasets span different lengths of time, as you can note on the two timescales I’ve included on the combined graph. The vertical scale matches exactly between graphs though. – Anthony
UPDATE2: Here is another graphical comparison of the two TSI variance graphs, scaled to have a matching X-axis and appropriately aligned side by side. – Anthony
Hi,
I think Leif might differ but this could be a new grand minimum. Penn and Livingston look to be right more and more. However TSI does vary enough to correlate to cooling or warming. I do how ever think it is related to the Tropical Thunder storm regions and the link between the ionosphere and troposphere. A simple change of 2 to 3% in cloud cover is enough to explain the warming and cooling of the historical period.
There are a few dramatic outliers on the first plot. Are these true readings or an equipment or methodology oddity? (Speaking of the TSI of 1357.4 or so in 2003).
REPLY: I’m guessing large sunspot patches, such as this event in October 2003, which seems to coincide with the largest TSI spike
http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/headline_universe/solar_system/stories_2003/solar_storm_oct_2003.html
– Anthony
I wonder why no one is crying that the sun is dying?
Seems like that would have been a new cry long ago.
Very interesting information.
Thanks
I agree with Jim. Temperature is surely most sensitive to the Earth’s albedo….. even in the Global Climate Models used by the warmenists.
How do they expalin this remains static?
Maybe one of the Team can put me really to rights on this question.
John H @16:08:06
… wonder why no one is crying that the sun is dying
Let’s hope they don’t or we’re into Aztec Sun sacrifice.
I’m a geologist/mining engineer so I’m very much uninitiated in the field of solar physics except for the wonderful tutorial that I am exposed to on this blog almost daily. I’ve followed the drama of the failed forecasts of when cycle 24 is going to begin and heard of desperate researchers who are almost counting dust mites on instrument objective lenses.
It is certainly easy to see in your first SCORCE figure the damping of TSI variance with time. But also evident is the decline in intensity to 1360.7 watts. Is this particularly low? Normal? When you get a long quiescent period like the Maunder minimum, does the intensity continue to decline or does it flatten out and sit there for decades?
If you look at Leif’s TSI graph http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png , it shows an uptick in TSI.
What gives?
REPLY: There’s uptick is in 10.7cm flux (magenta) I don’t see much if any of an uptick in the TSI (dark blue) – Anthony
Everyone was thinking in dec 2012 when the Mayan calender ended that was going to be the year when we had a super sunspot year and the world would change. Well lets turn it around and say that in dec 2012 cycle 24 still wont hav started and yes things will change but not like some expected!! Hmmmm
Yes. And I wonder why no one of prominance is crying that Global Warming
is dead.
Latest MSU data show temps dipping below 2008 levels. And East Pacific
SST`s are cooling(again).
John H (16:08:06) says :
“I wonder why no one is crying that the sun is dying?
Seems like that would have been a new cry long ago.”
It take too much creative energy and marketing chutzpah to tax and subjugate on the basis of a declining sun. AGW is so much better for that.
The sky is falling. Literally.
The first thing that strikes me when I see that top graph is the amplitude.
To be more precise, the waning of amplitude vs time.
I would like to see 1992 to 1997 for a comparison.
Is this to be expected, or is this just another example of the waning amplitudes we see in flux, ssn and gcr’s (last 2-4 mos)?
I am reminded of the behavior of a complex piece of equipment as the batteries slowly die out.
Those 3 data sets behavior is attention-getting.
Add TSI to the list and it gets in your face.
Really would like to hear from Dr. Archibald on this.
Leif Svalgaard has chart, updated daily, showing a slight move up in TSE as well as a more pronounced uptick in F10.7 flux:
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
Oops. TSI, not TSE.
Gary Pearse,
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090328163643.htm
“Modelers estimate that TSI increased roughly 0.08 percent as the Sun exited the Maunder Minimum, which lasted for much of the 1700s. But even if TSI radiometers had been available at the time, the increase in irradiance was so gradual that identifying the trend would have been difficult.”
REPLY: There’s uptick is in 10.7cm flux (magenta) I don’t see much if any of an uptick in the TSI (dark blue) – Anthony
I see that, too. The amplitude falls of there as well.
What you might see on a oscilliscope hooked to a radio signal as the transmitting object goes beyond the range of reception.
Take that graph, run a straight line from the latest midpoint back across to the left. What do you see?
All our fears and complications
Can be pushed away with us
Let’s not let it fade away
‘Cause the memories of sunshine’s gone away (sunshine’s gone away)
And these tears inside our heart are too afraid
Tell me what should I say (what should I say?)
To ever bring’ em back my way
Is it much to late to say I’m sorry now?
You are my sunshine, my only sunshine
You make me happy when skies are gray
You’ll never know dear, how much I love you
Please don’t take my sunshine away
I know that Leif’s SORCE graph looks like it has an upturn in TSI, but I submit it is due to the way that the mean trend line is calculated. Less variance will do that.
Here is Leif’s SORCE graph with the distraction of the trend lines removed. Note how the variance diminishes in TSI
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/files/2009/04/leif_sorce_wotrendline.png
– Anthony
As the suggested main driver of climate wanes, so does the Global Warming.
More than just Antarctic Ice is spreading, so is the fall of Global Temps.
Do you suppose they will snap out of it should the Sun suddenly turn orange on a clear day? I have wondered to myself about that many times.
Exaclty what would a 180 from Global Warming 24/7 media blitz succumb to?
Isn’t Leif currently listing November of 2008 as the bottom of the cycle? I thought I saw that somewhere. His graph is pretty flat but that doesn’t mean that isn’t the bottom.
I wonder if there’s connections here.
TSI continues to drop, SST’s have peaked when the TSI was at the highest level in the last solar cycle and has dropped since, it also appears the SOI is now on a noticable upward trend (hit +10 today) since cycle 23 was winding down towards the minimum.
If these connections hold any weight, than the AGW house of cards really will be falling down.
[snip – automakers? Totally Off Topic]
On Leif’s graph the dotted blue line is not rising; in fact toward the end it is running along the tops of the readings, instead of the middle. The solid blue line runs along the bottom, and it is rising. So why is flux rising, and the TSI is just getting more still?
==========================================