Image from NOAA, dated 12/04/08 – click for larger image h/t to Fernando
It will be interesting to see what November UAH and RSS satellite data brings forth.
La Niñas occurred in 1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1995, and in 2007. It looks as if that 2007 event is hanging on.
Here are some FAQs on the subject:
Typically, a La Niña is preceded by a buildup of cooler-than-normal subsurface waters in the tropical Pacific. Eastward-moving atmospheric and oceanic waves help bring the cold water to the surface through a complex series of events still being studied. In time, the easterly trade winds strengthen, cold upwelling off Peru and Ecuador intensifies, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) drop below normal. During the 1988- 89 La Niña, SSTs fell to as much as 4 degrees C (7 degrees F) below normal. Both La Niña and El Niño tend to peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
What’s the difference between La Niña and El Niño?*
Both terms refer to large-scale changes in sea-surface temperature across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Usually, sea-surface readings off South America’s west coast range from the 60s to 70s F, while they exceed 80 degrees F in the “warm pool” located in the central and western Pacific. This warm pool expands to cover the tropics during El Niño but shrinks to the west during La Niña. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the coupled ocean-atmosphere process that includes both El Niño and La Niña.
What are the global impacts of La Niña?
Both El Niño and La Niña impact global and U.S. climate patterns. In many locations, especially in the tropics, La Niña (or cold episodes) produces the opposite climate variations from El Niño. For instance, parts of Australia and Indonesia are prone to drought during El Niño, but are typically wetter than normal during La Niña.
What are the U.S. impacts of La Niña?
La Niña often features drier than normal conditions in the Southwest in late summer through the subsequent winter. Drier than normal conditions also typically occur in the Central Plains in the fall and in the Southeast in the winter. In contrast, the Pacific Northwest is more likely to be wetter than normal in the late fall and early winter with the presence of a well-established La Niña. Additionally, on average La Niña winters are warmer than normal in the Southeast and colder than normal in the Northwest.
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RSS MSU november 2008 temperatures are in at junkscience.com
http://junkscience.com/ MSU_Temps…rming_Look.html
What are the impacts of La Nina on Europe’s weather? The past two summers in UK have been cooler and wetter than “normal.” Are we to expect more of the same if this La Nina becomes established? What is the “normal” length of time that a La Nina lasts?
The globe is cooling, folks. For how long even kim doesn’t know.
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It will be interesting to see what November UAH and RSS satellite data brings forth.
RSS is up (+0.22) according to Steve Milloy, but temperatures tend to lag ENSO by a couple of months. Nevertheless, Hadley/GISS/RSS/UAH have risen all steadily over the past few months despite NINO index anomalies being zero at best. I’ve said it before on here – there is no long term cooling trend. A lack of warming, maybe, but definitely not cooling.
he he!! -if it means rain – we got it- yup!! – my area broke the record for November rain, I know we weren’t alone.
Anthony: If -0.5 Deg C is the threshold for a La Nina, then we’re still shy of mild La Nino. As of last week, NINO3.4 SST anomalies were still hovering at -0.399 Deg C. That’s the most recent OI.v2 SST reading for the area for the week centered on November 26, 2008.
http://i37.tinypic.com/246q8h0.jpg
My monthly updates for SSTs are here:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/12/november-2008-sst-update.html
Off topic: Your readers will enjoy this, Anthony. Did you ever wonder why GISS uses Hadley Centre SST data when the NCDC has the Extended Reconstructed SST data? Over the period used in GISTEMP, January 1880 to November 1981:
The HADSST2 data had a linear trend of 0.038 Deg C/Decade, and
The ERSST.v2 data had a linear trend of 0.026 Deg C/Decade.
http://i37.tinypic.com/2uy3q6v.jpg
I covered that here:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-does-giss-use-hadsst2-data-from.html
Regards
Yeah, we are still a ways from a technical La Nina, which needs a 3 month average to be below -0.5C. La Nina conditions will likely return this winter, and persist until mid summer. NOAA is expecting this to be a weaker La Nina than last year’s, so it might prove to be just another dull winter.
Yep. Been watching the SOI go more and more positive since August. Not a surprise…
The SOI
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=soi
C,mon Anthony,
this headline is sensationalistic as well as innacurate. We are nowhere near a mild La Nina as yet and the SST’s in the relevant areas of the tropical pacific are much higher than this time last year. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.12.6.2007.gif
Only Nino 2 is showing a negative SST anomoly of under -0.5 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml
and most of the models are showing neutral conditions throughout the southern hemisphere summer. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
A more accurate title would have been ‘Enso conditions remain neutral with slight cooling possible’. Maybe your title is fodder for the believers of the new ice age such as Kim, but for the rest of us try and keep it real!
REPLY: We’ll see. I was laughed at in 1989 here in California when I was the only one declaring the drought was over. If you really want to gripe about headlines, how about the one on ocean noise, which is from your side of the aisle?- Anthony
Anyone care to guess what the June 2009 Global Lower Temperature Anomaly will be, according to UAH?
The data will be available in early June 2009 at: http://www.atmos.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2
June 2008 was -0.114C
October 2008 was +0.167C
My bet is June 2009 will be about -0.200C.
2008 11 0.216
ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_2.txt
What is the link to the new UAH dataset?
John M Reynolds
I like to use the animation link at the NOAA site the SST picture from above comes from.
Let it load up and then speed up the animation as fast as your computer will allow – you might have to start over if you speed it up too much and it freezes.
You can start to see how La Ninas and El Ninos develop – watching the cold water waves move across the Pacific is at least quite interesting – sometimes you can see the location where the colder water from below wells up and helps contribute to a La Nina.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/anom_anim.html
John Finn, you are playing semantics. But I believe your statement there is no cooling trend is wrong. The trend is definitely a cooling one.
Speaking of the SOI:
http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/121542494/abstract
Exploratory Analysis of Similarities in Solar Cycle Magnetic Phases with Southern Oscillation Index Fluctuations in Eastern Australia
ABSTRACT
There is growing interest in the role that the Sun’s magnetic field has on weather and climatic parameters, particularly the ~11 year sunspot (Schwab) cycle, the ~22 yr magnetic field (Hale) cycle and the ~88 yr (Gleissberg) cycle. These cycles and the derivative harmonics are part of the peculiar periodic behaviour of the solar magnetic field. Using data from 1876 to the present, the exploratory analysis suggests that when the Sun’s South Pole is positive in the Hale Cycle, the likelihood of strongly positive and negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values increase after certain phases in the cyclic ~22 yr solar magnetic field. The SOI is also shown to track the pairing of sunspot cycles in ~88 yr periods. This coupling of odd cycles, 23–15, 21–13 and 19–11, produces an apparently close charting in positive and negative SOI fluctuations for each grouping. This Gleissberg effect is also apparent for the southern hemisphere rainfall anomaly. Over the last decade, the SOI and rainfall fluctuations have been tracking similar values to that recorded in Cycle 15 (1914–1924). This discovery has important implications for future drought predictions in Australia and in countries in the northern and southern hemispheres which have been shown to be influenced by the sunspot cycle. Further, it provides a benchmark for long-term SOI behaviour.
I dunno, it might be dull and warm somewhere, but right now we’re running 12-14 degree’s F below “normal” and it looks to be that way for next 10 days at least and has been for the last several days. That is in the U.S. mid section. This is the coolest year that I can remember taken in the aggregate.
One important point is that an El Nino or a La Nina typically occur around December (any time in the period from November to February).
In the record, there are a few other events that don’t match that timeline but it is considerably more common around the December period.
I imagine the phenomenon is influenced by the seasonal change in solar energy that occurs in the late summer and over the fall since the trend up or down starts near this time.
It might be a little late for a La Nina to meet the expected timeline. We should be in the -1.0C to -1.5C territory already and it is mostly neutral.
Johnnyb (02:56:07) :
Looks like there are more ways to define a La Nina than there are to skin a cat.
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/background/pastevent.html says
So, this says you declare La Nina five months after it’s been in effect for six months. That’s harsher than declaring a recession….
That may be worthwhile for historical studies, something like a 3 month average below -0.5 seems more workable for “realtime” testing by us impatient types.
OT:
First Heidi now Miles…
Global Warming Update: CNN Drops Science Unit and Miles O’Brien
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2008/12/04/global-warming-update-cnn-drops-science-unit-miles-obrien
And another ship is stranded in ice.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/TRAVEL/12/04/stranded.ship.antarctica/index.html
“Yeah, we are still a ways from a technical La Nina”
By the same token the 3-month average never crossed the zero line and La Nina winds never departed. Why did we ever say La Nina was over?
“-0.399 degrees”
The -0.5 degree definition is also limited to Nino 3.4 OSI measurements.
As we’re splitting hairs: Mary, Mary quite contrary, what says the CSIRO?
We are back to nighttime temps in the teens (and dipping lower each time) and 10 to 20 degrees colder than the strong baby girl made us last year. We are also back to the NWS way over-estimating the predicted lows, leading to freezing pipes in trusting homes. Last year they also took a month or more to stop predicting rain after an entire month of snow, not the predicted rain. This month appears to be no different. Rain is predicted for Wallowa County. Where’s the odd maker when I need him? While December 3rd continued to show record highs around Oregon, Idaho, and Washington, I’ll bet that will be the last of it. Why? Because the lows are as cold as last year and the jet stream pouring down from the Arctic cold is moving over us now instead of East.
RE: Hunter
I cannot let it pass that you blame Bush for the non-passage of Kyoto. As per Wiki (below) and all other information available to anyone willing to read, it was the Clinton Administration that never even bothered to submit the treaty to the Senate for ratification. It failed to become law 2-1/2 years before Bush even took office. Before you worship at the altar of AGW you’ll need to expand your knowledge if you wish to offer an informed opinion on this topic.
“On 25 July 1997, before the Kyoto Protocol was finalized (although it had been fully negotiated, and a penultimate draft was finished), the U.S. Senate unanimously passed by a 95–0 vote the Byrd-Hagel Resolution (S. Res. 98),[68][69] which stated the sense of the Senate was that the United States should not be a signatory to any protocol that did not include binding targets and timetables for developing as well as industrialized nations or “would result in serious harm to the economy of the United States”. On 12 November 1998, Vice President Al Gore symbolically signed the protocol. Both Gore and Senator Joseph Lieberman indicated that the protocol would not be acted upon in the Senate until there was participation by the developing nations.[70] The Clinton Administration never submitted the protocol to the Senate for ratification.”
Bill Illis: A few days ago I posted about how El Ninos recharge themselves. I think you’d find it interesting.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/11/recharging-pacific-warm-pool.html
Looks like the sea level graph is finally up to date. It appears that it has been falling since 2005.
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/