Click image for a live interactive view of the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC
Today started off terrible. I slipped in the bathtub last night at the hotel, and strained a back muscle and was so sore that just getting dressed and into the car was a chore. As a result, I was late getting to NCDC this morning. I’ve been popping Aleves today. Fortunately, they had slack built in so the day got started cheerfully with a review of the new Climate Reference Network with the principal scientists. It was a super meeting and I took many notes, I’ll have much to share later.
Next came a briefing on “Climate Science” from Tom Peterson, but I’m afraid I stole his thunder a little bit when I announced that I had already seen his presentation, which included an analysis of the Marysville USHCN Station. See the powerpoint he presented here:aapg-san-antonio-peterson
Then came a personal tour of the Asheville CRN station by Dr. Bruce Baker. In addition to taking visible light photos, I also took matching IR photos from many angles. Bruce and his team were quite impressed with the IR camera I use, and he says he plans to buy a couple in use for siting surveys. He also plans to post the IR photos I took today on the CRN site to show how well the design and siting is free of IR influences.
I’ll have much more on all of this but I still have 8 more stations to survey plus an unexpected customer detour service call Friday to WDNN-TV in Dalton, GA which has some trouble with our weather display system there. So stay tuned for more details on the visit and questions that were asked and answered.
But the big news came with Dr. Baker providing me with a press release (new today) to post here for you all to see. CRN is getting completed and USHCN modernization is starting:
NOAA today announced it will install the last nine of the 114 stations as part of its new, high-tech climate monitoring network. The stations track national average changes in temperature and precipitation trends. The U.S. Climate Reference Network (CRN) is on schedule to activate these final stations by the end of the summer.
NOAA also is modernizing 1,000 stations in the Historical Climatology Network (HCN), a regional system of ground-based observing sites that collect climate, weather and water measurements. NOAA’s goal is to have both networks work in tandem to feed consistently accurate, high-quality data to scientists studying climate trends.
See the full press release here:
press_release_042408_climatereferencenetwork
What this means: No more adjusted data, the raw data from CRN and from HCN-M is the real data and will be pristine, assuming the network is maintained. No more torturous gyrations of FILNET, SHAP, and TOBS. The downside is that a track record needs to be built up, the older data is also going to be revised with USHCN2 algorithms soon, and I’ll touch on that later.
One thing that Debra Braun said to me today in the meeting hit home: “our funding had been cut for the last two years, and we were unable to move forward until this year”. This made me think that perhaps some of the focus the surfacestations.org project brought to illuminating the deplorable condition of the network may have helped a little bit in convincing some legislators that it was time to get serious about allocating funding to complete the CRN and fix the USHCN. A little public embarrassment of the USHCN provided by all of us that have contributed to surfacestations.org may have helped. I’d sure like to think so.
I want to extend my heartfelt thanks to Dr. Baker, Debra Braun, Grant Goodge, and the entire CRN science team, plus Jeff Arnfield, and Steven Del Greco for answering all my questions and taking such careful time with me. Additionally I wish to thank Dr. Karl, and Assistant Director Sharon LeDuc for hearing my concerns and offering ideas.
Everyone there at NCDC made me feel welcome and appreciated.
Most importantly, I want to thank you, my loyal readers and volunteers, because without your help, the trip and presentation I made would not be possible.
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Anthony
Great report. glad all went well, other than NCDC planting sinister soap bars in your hotel shower 🙂 Look forward to further reports on your trip and meetings.
Be safe
JERRY
REPLY: I know that’s meant to be a joke, but NCDC treated me with respect, full access, and a warm welcome, so please quash such puns.
Will there be some overlap between the ‘old station’ and the ‘new station’? Because the discontinuities are the actual problems, yes?
First, my remarks about being held captive were meant to be funny. There mis nothing funny about wrenching your back.
Do what ever it takes to get better.
And it sure sounds like we are getting our money’s worth!
Keep up the good work, Anthony. I think this means YOU are making a worthwhile difference.
Wow! Victory! Amazing!
And to think that *ahem* certain others were convinced you were going to be “educated” by the NOAA and castigated for your evil ways.
It seems as if they have cleaned house and are proudly showing you their handiwork.
You have struck a blow that has resonated. I am overwhelmed by the response.
No more insane adjustment procedures! This is a wonderful day! An astounding vindication! And they run them in tandem so as to create a seamless conversion. PLUS new USHCN2 algorithms to convert old records! (I’ll be very damned interested in THAT.)
C’mon dudes (so far)! You’re praise is too faint. Can you not see the decisive victory here? Another round of congratulations, then. And this time get your backs into it!
WOOO-HOOO!
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I’m sorry to hear you hurt yourself, Rev. Take it easy and try soaking in a nice, hot tub–with lots of epsom salts if you can get ahold of any.
REPLY: Well I was “educated” but it wasn’t forced on me. USHCN2 will solve a lot of problems, but it will still miss some types of biases, even so it is a step forward. I plan to do a detailed post about it. The most valuable thing is that NCDC was supportive of the surfacestations.org work, they see the photography as valuable. We have some new ideas about creating complete station histories. Some brainstorming went on.
Also, note that these projects had been planned before I and all you volunteers came along, but I think we helped grease the wheels of a stuck bureacracy with the project. It’s preyty hard for anyone who’s in charge of allocatijng funds for a project not to look at pictures like Marysville, Tucson, Detroit Lakes, Miami, Lampasas, and the parade of moldy sensors at sewage treatment plants and not see that the network is in trouble.
Wow! This is great news. But now what will Hansen do with his spare time?
Anthony:
NCDC’s attitude is supporting a conviction I’ve suspected all along; the bulk of the scientists out there, while may have some convictions, ultimately want to know the truth of what is happening. More than likely, the message delivery has been hijacked by the alarmist few and the media, knowing catastrophe sells, is picking up those who will give them the quips they want.
Fine work. Who says one person can’t change anything.
Congratulations on your nice meeting with the NCDC.
I wish you a speedy recovery from the wrenched back. My most recent occurance was from a wild (surfer style) gyration to keep from falling off a boat trailer and into some cold water. The healing was slow and, at times, the pain was breathtaking.
Sometime when you think of it, would you comment on your FLIR camera? I did my best search of the archives and didn’t find anything.
Regards
REPLY: Breathtaking is right, putting on pants feels like death
I saw that rooftop view of the National Climatic Data Center and my first instinct was to look for temperature measuring gear up there!
..Good news,! They will also move some HCN stations that are closer to ideal!
.. interesting to see what will happen there !
what is shows that most organizations/people are eventually well meaning and do not mean harm if you approach them in the right way. So we can now start to trust NCDC temp data. I would be interested thougn in the baseline used for anomalies. is it going to change again? Well done Anthony you do the science of meteorology proud!
REPLY: As the new data accumulates, baselines should start becoming closer to the present, though GISS may still stick with the older baseline…but it will become harder to defend.
This is certainly great news. Finally getting to the business of serious measurement and data evaluation.
Is this going to effect in any way how GISS will handle global climate data in the future? Good national data is all well and good, but climate policy decisions will still be made on global trends. For this we also need good data and methodology.
REPLY: As I mentioned, this should put an end to adjustments, so the data won’t be tortured (hopefully) and if it is, it will be tough to defend.
Anthony, you are proof positive that one person can make a difference with dedication and hard work. You and everyone else who has participated in the surveys, contributed $$ or helps in getting the word out shows that “we the people” is still a meaningful slogan in this Country.
Thank you so very much for your efforts.
First of all, you might want to visit a local Chiropractor to adjust your back before you move on to the next stop… You deserve the best.
Secondly, many have already alluded to “one man can make a difference” and they are quite right. And even though you might try to downplay this assertion because of all the others gathering data for you, YOU took the leadership position in getting it all started! I personally believe you’ll be more than a simple footnote in climate history.
Finally , you said: “The downside is that a track record needs to be built up, the older data is also going to be revised with USHCN2 algorithms soon, and I’ll touch on that later.”
And this is where I think most will be concerned. As long as we have guys like Hansen running around, everything that done should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism.
Get well, Anthony and God speed!
Jack Koenig, Editor
The Mysterious Climate Project
http://www.climateclinic.com
With surfacestations.org we are witnessing the “self-correcting” feedback process of science in action. Notice what it takes: curiosity, awareness, experience, willingness to challenge the paradigm, honesty (wherever that may lead), perseverence, graciousness in the face of attack, confidence, evidence, ability to communicate, and seriousness mixed with enough good humor to keep it interesting. Many thanks to you, Anthony, for showing how it’s done.
Interestingly, these are the same qualities we seek in friends.
Just a quick comment on the use of Thermal imaging cameras.
Be careful when interpreting the data from the image. The cameras are very good at showing differences of temperature with materials of the same emmisivity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissivity. Dissimilar materials can appear to have a different temperature on the camera image but the actual temperature can be the same! It depends on what wavelength the camera uses to determine the temperature. Obviously some materials emit better at a specific wavelength than others. Reflective materials are even more difficult to measure precisely.
Bravo, Anthony. I’m glad that my meager contribution via purchase of your software has helped this noble cause.
I have to agree with that which was mentioned above, that there is far from a consensus, and even government scientists want to get the science right (No slant towards government employees intended, I’ve been one myself, more than once).
I think it is important to note that you were invited, and not the likes of Tamino or Rabbett, this says a lot for you, I think.
REPLY: Thanks, and I’d point out you can’t invite people with no names.
Thank you for your work and report. Best wishes for speedy and complete back recovery!
Stretch as often as possible. A simple bend of the knees, and lean forward, can stretch the relevant muscles. A squat on or toward the haunches can be miraculous. It’s not fun having back pain on a road trip, and feel every bump in the road. Stay hydrated.
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This is one of the most proud posts I have ever made! I get to brag on someone that I believe has made a profound difference in how we will live in the future. I once posted that we had barely scratched the surface of climate study and that we hadn’t even learned how to properly measure temperature. I believe that through your diligence, dedication, and refusal to take short cuts you have single handedly with the help of good, serious and diligent volunteers taught us the first true lessons of proper measurement of temperature and the need for proper storage of original data for future use. Most of the record thus far has been destroyed due to destruction of original data by manipulation.
Anthony this is a great victory over the sloppiness of the current bureaucracy against the inertia of an established system. You have my greatest admiration and I do believe that one day you will be addressed as Dr. Watts.
I thank you for your dedication to the needs of the nation and the world to produce proper data for study so that we might adapt to future climate changes whether warmer or cooler.
Bill Derryberry
Bureaucracies often have programs that never get finished due to “Death by Meetings”. From my own experience, outside efforts like Anthony’s can give a push that restarts them. We’ve been conditioned to expect government to do things
to usfor us and we forget that in this country we are part of the government. It is gratifying to know that NCDC has people that are interested in the science and are willing to listen to responsible voices outside of their own shop.I clicked through petersons presentation.
HE RAN FOR THE ICE.
let me explain this obsfucatory tactic for you guys. Mainly cause I named it.
RUN FOR THE ICE.
When you challenge the warmists about the flawed data record, about the quality control of their data, about making it open, about this problem and that that problem, they will at some point… RUN FOR THE ICE. look the ice is melting. Dont look at the surface station! LOOK OVER HERE. see the ice MELTING?
Yes, the ice is melting. Yes the plants and animals are migrating. yes the world is getting warmer.
How much warmer??
I dont know, let’s measure that.
Opps, our measurement system is a bit sketchy and doesnt meet it’s own standards.
So first things first. Fix the stations
This is excellent news. Undoubtedly the surfacestations.org project created a sense of urgency for them to get the funding they needed in order to make the necessary improvements. I imagine that they’re just as happy as you are to see the CRN completed in the next few months. Good to hear how professionally they treated you during your visit.
And on a side note, ThermaCare heatwraps for lower back pain work wonders. I couldn’t have driven yesterday (much less walked) without one after I hurled myself into oncoming traffic to save my dog from getting steamrolled. I feel your pain.
It’s excellent news to read they have secured funding and can revamp.
I think one of the things many of your critics don’t realize is that public agencies have trouble getting sufficient funds and public attention to the poor condition of facilities is often the only way for them to get it. NCDC personnel have probably been requesting money for years, but as long as down stream users think they can “fix up” the data problems using fancy math, those in charge of measuring had trouble convincing those making funding decisions to give them more money to make better measurements.
The best way to achieve good data quality, and avoid arguments about the adequacy of the process for “fixing up” the data is to take good data in the first place.
Over a year ago I was on an Alaska cruise ship and having dinner with a climate scientist from NCDC in Asheville. I asked him the $64K question as to AGW and if he was a believer. He sheepishly looked around us before answering and when confident no one could hear him he told me it was all a bunch of G** D**mn nonsense. He had been in meterology for 60 years and believed this is all a trumped up scheme to get grant money. Everyone at the center kept their views to themselves and didn’t rock the boat.
How amazingly sad and pathetic for a scientific institution to operate like this in a state of fear and silence.