A place for discussion
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Open Thread
A place for discussion
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November 15, 2026 2:05 am
Here is one to put to your LLM:
A criticism of the greenhouse-effect narrative is that it can encourage the conflation of statistically defined radiative transfer fluxes with physically real local electromagnetic flows. From a Maxwell field perspective, as emphasised by NASA physicist Michael Mishchenko, care must be taken to distinguish directional radiative transfer constructs from local flows of electromagnetic energy. Critics argue that the failure to maintain this distinction has led to profound misconceptions regarding the physical meaning of simultaneous upward and downwelling longwave fluxes.
Ask your LLM to review the statement. It will probably disagree and state that simultaneous upward and downwelling fluxes exist, which is wrong.
If your LLM does not agree with the statement then ask it to read the Mishchenko paper at this link and give a revised opinion:
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/c03b/2b493f57e13d3c3e2b58d17c9656d2dee978.pdf
If it now changes the perspective then it validates the statement because its first response was the misconception.
I am very critical of the poor science that pervades the UNIPCC AR6 WG1 chapter. It is based on profound and fundamental misconception of electromagnetic radiation that pervades the whole carbon induced Climate Change narrative
This is the last line in the second paragraph of section 7 of the Mishchenko paper:
Thus under no circumstances is the local flow of electromagnetic energy polydirectional.
I have grave doubts about any scientific validity for CO2 induced warming but the existing fairy tale is based on nonsense and just wrong.
November 15, 2026 2:16 am
This is an update to my post on the Open Thread on October 25, about Band 13 and Band 16 radiance data for the CONUS region, from NOAA’s GOES East geostationary satellite. Each archived data file is a 2500 column by 1500 row array of numerical values in units of mW m-2 sr-1 (cm-1)-1 (in words, this means milliwatts per square meter per steradian per wavenumber.) The radiance at each pixel directly indicates the power intensity with which IR is being emitted to space.
Band 13 is the “10.3 micron Clean Longwave IR Window” channel. 2 km resolution, 5-minute update.
Band 16 is the “13.3 micron CO2 Longwave – IR” channel. 2 km resolution, 5-minute update.
For this exercise, for both bands, the first of 12 of the 5-minute data files in each hour was downloaded for analysis.
The 10-25-26 post is linked here.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/10/25/open-thread-213/
This Google Drive folder below has been updated to include time-lapse videos of side-by-side visualizations of the Band 13 and Band 16 radiance data for 7-day periods ending 7-7-26 (summer) and 1-7-26 (winter.) Both bands are visualized using the same color scale for radiance values. If the videos do not play clearly enough from Google Drive, you can download the videos to your computer or device.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/11jRax2RWdZe90Sqf84NGt_Q0wMzfdHnI?usp=drive_link
For each of these 7-day periods, there is also a plot of the region-wide mean values of Band 13 and Band 16 radiances for each hourly sample, and an expanded-scale plot including the 5% and 95% quantiles of these values.
Why this exercise?
– To resolve the problem that the color scale for Band 13 used by NOAA is nearly all black at the high end of the range. For Band 16, on the other hand, NOAA uses a color scale with much better definition for visualization of rapid change in a wide range of values. In both cases, NOAA uses a “brightness temperature” scale. There is no need for “brightness temperature” in this exercise, as the radiance values are used directly.
– To resolve my previous dependence on recent NOAA visualizatons to generate the Band 16 time-lapse videos. NOAA limits their image folder to the most recent 10 days. Now I can go back to the data file archives directly to generate images for the dates of interest.
– To demonstrate the highly time-dependent response of the longwave emitter as the daily pulse of sunshine adds energy.
– To emphasize the critical importance of highly active circulation-driven cloud formation and dissipation to longwave emission to space. It’s NOT a passive radiative “blanket” in concept.
– To provide a framing in which to appreciate the earth’s skin surface and the cloud tops as frequency converter interfaces with the overlying atmosphere. These are near-black-body emitters facing space. The “window” portion of the IR spectrum is always available to the skin surface under clear skies, and to the cloud tops.
A key point for consideration:
Once the performance of the emitter is visualized this way, it becomes clearer that the minor static radiative “warming” tendency from incremental CO2, a good portion of which is within Band 16, cannot be assumed to operate as a “forcing.” Does that minor radiative effect produce a long-term accumulation of energy at the skin surface as sensible heat gain? How would you ever tell? Band 13 (along with the remainder of the “window” portion of the spectrum) responds rapidly and powerfully to absorbed energy. That response within the “window” part of the sprectrum already includes whatever influence is exerted by the IR coupling of the overlying atmosphere to the skin surface and to the cloud tops. Notice that the “dwell time” at night (between pulses of sunshine) and in the winter gives ample opportunity for the energy involved in the incremental “warming” tendency from rising CO2 to be released to space through the “window.”
That is all for now.
P.S. The alert reader will notice that the images are not 2500 X 1500 pixels. This is to keep the image processing and file size more manageable. It doesn’t matter for this post. The computation of the mean and of the quantiles uses the entire array of archived values. Also, the aspect ratio of the images is not 5:3. Again, it doesn’t matter for what is being demonstrated here.
