‘The Future of CCS Can No Longer Be Assumed’ (a supporter rethinks …)

From MasterResource

By Robert Bradley Jr.

“Today, global operating nameplate capture capacity is approximately 60 million tonnes a year. If fully utilised, that would represent gross capture equivalent to roughly 14-15 hours of annual global energy and industrial emissions. Actual verified net storage is lower.” (- Martin Jagger, below)

Martin Jagger, a climate activist specializing in carbon capture & storage, recently wrote a sobering post on the progress of this technology in addressing the assumed-to-be climate crisis. This problematic approach is another example of the tears-in-the-ocean choices of climate mitigation policy.

“For twenty years,” he begins, “I have argued that CCS has an important role to play in managing emissions from industries where practical alternatives remain limited.” The progress to date has been small, and the effect on global emissions minuscule. He explains:

Today, global operating nameplate capture capacity is approximately 60 million tonnes a year. If fully utilised, that would represent gross capture equivalent to roughly 14-15 hours of annual global energy and industrial emissions. Actual verified net storage is lower…. Closing even the gap between today’s operating capacity and the announced [EIA estimated] 2030 pipeline would require an extraordinary acceleration in permitting, financing, construction, commissioning and sustained operating performance.

The interest and potential investment are there, he believes, but “delivery” is small and problematic.

… announcements are not delivery, storage resources are not injection capacity, and nameplate capacity is not independently verified climate impact. The next phase of CCS must therefore be more demanding than the last. By 2030, success should no longer be measured primarily by the number of projects announced, memoranda signed, licences awarded or billions committed. It should be measured by verified net tonnes securely stored, year after year. That requires a tougher delivery model.

He alludes to the problem of getting from hyperbole to practice.

We have largely solved the problem of attracting interest and announcing investment. We have not yet solved the delivery problem. That distinction matters because CCS cannot indefinitely be judged by its potential. Nor should every delay be explained by saying that the industry simply needs more policy support or more public money. After two decades, the burden of proof must begin to shift.

Continuing:

That shift also requires greater honesty about how progress is reported. Too many of the institutions responsible for advocacy and industry leadership still present CCS largely as a good-news story. New projects, funding awards and headline capacity are publicised; delays, cancellations, operating shortfalls and the absence of verified storage receive much less attention.

Final Comment

Government incentives for carbon capture and storage, formalized in the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 (Section 45Q tax credit), should be terminated to please the free-market community and many environmentalists. [2] The whole initiative is inconsequential to global or regional climate, and projects have been opposed by local residents in the U.S. and elsewhere. [3]


[1] Martin Jagger’s bio reads:

I am an Executive Consultant in Energy Transition Strategy and Decarbonisation Delivery with a track record of bringing operator discipline to CCS policy and projects. I established Shell’s Carbon Capture and Storage Centre of Excellence in 2007 and helped shape international frameworks for long-term CO₂ storage that informed UNFCCC CDM mechanisms and regulatory guidance.

I currently advise sovereigns, regulators and innovators on areas where policy realism, technical feasibility and capital must align. My work tests the credibility of targets, the true scaling pathways for CCS and low-carbon fuels, and the structural barriers that stall momentum – especially FID drag, subsidy distortion, infrastructure mis-sequencing and the policy-performance gap.

[2] The tax credits since 2022 are $85 per ton of CO₂ stored for dedicated geologic storage projects and $60 per ton for CO₂ utilization projects with associated storage, increased subsidies from $50 and $35 (2018) and $20 and $10 (2008). A summary of federal largess from Taxpayers for Common Sense reads:

For decades, the federal government has provided billions of dollars in both direct and indirect subsidies to support CCS technology and projects. These subsidies have included research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) funding, loan guarantees, and tax credits.

Over the past few decades some of these subsidies have gone to projects that have been repeatedly started and stopped, only to eventually collapse due to various economic issues and controversies (e.g., FutureGen, Kemper). Additionally, the 45Q tax credit, which has grown significantly in both size and scope, has been mired in fraud and waste. To date, the federal government has spent tens of billions of taxpayer dollars on CCS through research and development funding and tax credits, yet the technology is still struggling with widescale deployment issues due to high costs….

According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), Congress provided roughly $9 billion (in nominal dollars) in annual appropriations for DOE’s FECM from FY2010 to FY2023, with over $2.8 billion specifically directed towards CCS line items…. Congress appropriated $12 billion more to the technology through the infrastructure law (Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, P.L. 117-58) and greatly expanded the already lucrative tax credit in the Inflation Reduction Act (Public Law 117-169).

[3] There are currently 15 operating CCS facilities in the U.S. and another 120 projects under development. The top ten projects are (verbatim):

1. Stratos Direct Air Capture (DAC) Project

Companies: Occidental Petroleum (through its subsidiary 1 Point Five) and Origis Energy
Capacity: 500, 000 metric tons of CO₂ annually
Application: Direct Air Capture powered by a dedicated solar portfolio
Source: Origis Energy Commissions 500 MWdc Swift Air Solar Projects in …

2. CF Industries Donaldsonville CCS Facility

Companies: Calpine Corporation and Exxon Mobil
Capacity: Approximately 2 million metric tons of CO₂ annually
Application: Low-carbon power generation from a new natural gas plant
Source: Calpine, Exxon Mobil sign CO 2 transportation and storage …

3. Calpine Baytown Energy Center CCS Project

Companies: CF Industries and Exxon Mobil
Capacity: A key component of Exxon Mobil’s contracted ~9 million metric tons per annum (MTA) portfolio
Application: Decarbonization of ammonia production
Source: Here’s How XOM Is Scaling Up Its CCS Footprint to Reduce Emissions

4. Google-Backed Gas Power Plant with CCS

Companies: Google and Mitsubishi Power
Capacity: Designed to capture 90% of CO₂ emissions
Application: Firm, low-carbon power for data centers
Source: Google Commits to First U.S. Gas-Fired Power Plant with Integrated …

5. California Resources Corporation (CRC) Carbon Terra Vault I (CTV I)

Company: California Resources Corporation
Capacity: Not specified; designed as a dedicated CO₂ storage facility
Application: CO₂ injection and permanent geologic storage
Source: California Resources Corporation Breaks Ground on California’s …

6. Sweetwater Carbon Storage Hub (SCS Hub)

Companies: Frontier Infrastructure and Baker Hughes
Capacity: Positioned to be one of the largest U.S. CO₂ sequestration assets (specific tonnage not provided)
Application: Multi-user CO₂ sequestration hub for industrial emitters
Source: Baker Hughes, Frontier Infrastructure Partner on Carbon Capture …

7. ADM Decatur CCS Facility

Company: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
Capacity: Averages nearly 0.5 Mtpa (based on 4.5 million metric tons sequestered over a decade)
Application: Long-term industrial CCS for ethanol production
Source: ADM and Carbon Capture and Storage

8. Lake Charles Power Station Integrated CO₂ Capture Project

Company: Project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
Capacity: Not specified; large-scale pilot
Application: Advancing capture technologies for power generation
Source: [XLS] Sheet 1 – Climate Program Portal

9. Illinois CO₂ Injection Project

Company: Unnamed Texas-based developer
Capacity: Not specified; early-stage regulatory filing
Application: New CO₂ injection and storage project
Source: CP Daily Newsletter: Wednesday February 18, 2026 – Carbon Pulse

10. Bantam DAC Facility

Company: Climeworks
Capacity: Over 5, 000 tons of CO₂ annually
Application: Direct Air Capture, noted as the largest operational DAC in the U.S. as of October 2025
Source: Facilities – CO 2 RE – Global CCS Institute

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17 Comments
tinny
October 20, 2026 10:39 pm

The taxpayers who paid for this junk should be entitled to reparations from the grifters who mis-sold it.

SxyxS
Reply to  tinny
October 21, 2026 1:30 am

It would be actually funny if the CCS is eventually being used to store gas.
It has the chance to become the first woke thing in history that works and serves a real purpose.

Colin Belshaw
Reply to  tinny
October 21, 2026 4:01 am

But it could get much worse.
If current facilities capture 15 minutes of annual global emissions, that’s a magnificent grand total of 0.17% of emissions. And expenditure to get there was something like $200 billion, with annual operating costs of $4 billion.
Capture the lot and you’re looking at global capital deployment of $120 TRILLION and annual operating costs of 2.5 TRILLION.
The concept is . . . far more than utterly stupid.

Paul-G
October 20, 2026 10:45 pm

Current and even future CCS projects will be a minute proportion of total CO2, the increase of which is having a minor effect on global temperatures, so it is not worth spending anything on these projects — a complete waste of time and money. Letting the plants consume the CO2 is a better idea, and will be eventually eaten as fruit,vegetables and meat

SxyxS
Reply to  Paul-G
October 21, 2026 1:41 am

Just put into perspective : Earth has become greener in an area of roughly 40 mio km2.
How the hell will you compete with so much carbon capture?

And if building storage would be so easy and cheap on a megascale
every country would have built up reserves for at least a decade.

Rod Evans
October 20, 2026 11:17 pm

Such a waste of taxpayers $dollars.
Trees do the job for free and provide a much better scene than an industrial eye-saw ever could.
Why are governments in the western world so gullible? It looks like any grifter/charlatan can get what ever they want in state support simply by claiming their crazy idea will reduce climate change?

October 21, 2026 12:41 am

It is worrying that the author does not seem to realise that CCS of 7,800 million tons of CO2 emissions only removes 0.5 ppm from the atmosphere, as opposed to direct air capture which removes 1 ppm. The IPCC make it very clear that around 50% of emissions are naturally sequestrated so to prevent 1 ppm from entering the atmosphere, 2 ppm needs to be captured?

SxyxS
October 21, 2026 1:27 am

CCS is the modern equivalent of people of Schilda trying to catch sunlight in bags to light up their townhouse after they realised they forgot to built it with windows.

The Schildburgers were the progressives of the middle ages, but they never existed( until recently)

cartoss
Reply to  SxyxS
October 21, 2026 3:20 am

Thanks for this – I had to look up the story of the Schildburgers, but your comment is very apt

leefor
October 21, 2026 2:19 am

There is no costing per unit for the pitifully small amount of current CCS. ;(

Rahx360
October 21, 2026 2:28 am

I still don’t see the economic model. You can create a market out of everything but it adds nothing to our living standard. You can insert a ass meter to measure ass gas and charge people money for it. Then you can have catching ass gas and getting money for it. Imaging someone during the stone age came up with that idea, how would that improve our cave mens life?

I give it 3-4 years and nobody will talk abut it as the economy is in shambles, high employment, black outs, unaffordable energy and fuel. How much CO2 does burning our cities emit?

Reply to  Rahx360
October 21, 2026 2:48 am

Then you can have catching ass gas and getting money for it.

You are late to that party, son.

SxyxS
Reply to  worsethanfailure
October 21, 2026 4:59 am

Imagine the shock when the buyers realize that 95% of the farts being sold turn out to be fake.

October 21, 2026 3:40 am

Carbon Capture and Storage is just a costly and energy expensive attempt to throw away irrelevantly small amounts of useful plant food. It is promoted by people who have conveniently forgotten the elementary biology they should have learnt in primary school.  
And more CO2 in the atmosphere from now on can only have a minor and diminishing temperature effect on the planet.
https://edmhdotme.wpcomstaging.com/proportions-of-the-temperature-contributions-of-greenhouse-gasses-h2o-co2-n2o-ch4/

SxyxS
Reply to  emhmailmaccom
October 21, 2026 5:03 am

I wouldn’t be surprised if it eventually turns out that the amounts of co2 released to build,absorb and store co2 turn out to be magnitudes higher than the volume that is being stored.

Bruce Cobb
October 21, 2026 4:02 am

“Then suddenly, a teeny tiny light bulb flickered on within the vast cave, and for a brief moment he could see his hand in front of his face…”
To be continued.

Tom Johnson
October 21, 2026 4:39 am

” the federal government has spent tens of billions of taxpayer dollars on CCS through research and development funding and tax credits, yet the technology is still struggling with widescale deployment issues due to high costs”

Well, Duh! For starters, it is NOT carbon that is captured, it’s carbon dioxide, a totally different molecule. A successful project starts with a proper description and name for the project. Then, it’s relatively easy to calculate the energy actually used from the combustion of the carbon , as well as the total energy consumed by “capturing”, containing, transporting, injecting, and permanently sealing the carbon dioxide forever. The ratio of useful energy to capture energy can then be determined.

This calculation should be relatively easy to perform on a single page spreadsheet to be fully released to anyone who might be interested. Considerable scrutiny could result. Unless a significant positive ratio survives the scrutiny, no taxpayer money shall be released for the project.