Essay by Eric Worrall
Gee, who could have predicted a nuclear fusion startup which promised commercial fusion before 2030 might not meet the deadline?
Sep 28, 2026 – Business
Seattle-area Helion quietly moves goalpost on fusion
…
The latest: Helion this year removed a prediction from its website that Orion, its first commercial power plant, will begin producing electricity by 2028.
- A Helion webpage now says the plant will “begin initial operations in 2028.” It does not define initial operations.
- “We will not, in no universe, have 50 megawatts hit full operation in 2028,” Helion public affairs director Jackie Siebens said this summer at the FusionX conference in Boston.
- Full power won’t come before 2029 or 2030, she acknowledged. Helion declined to comment.
What we’re watching: Helion’s contract with Microsoft requires Orion to at least “be connected to the grid and begin operations by the end of 2028,” Siebens said.
- It’s unclear whether connecting to the grid in 2028 also means supplying electricity. Microsoft declined to comment.
Two academic papers published this year questioned fundamental assumptions behind Helion’s approach, including whether its reactor could produce enough fusion energy to overcome energy losses.
…
Read more: https://www.axios.com/local/seattle/2026/09/28/helion-energy-orion-fusion-microsoft-commercial-power-altman
Sabine Hossenfelder’s take;
Who predicted Helion would be a flop? We did actually – in my opinion their idea was absurd from the outset.
But you don’t have to take my word for it. The following March 2026 paper discusses how Helion’s ignition sequence leaks energy like water through a sieve. If I’ve understood correctly very little of the injected energy is available for igniting the plasma, a likely fatal problem for a fusion reactor which is supposed to produce energy, unless you perhaps have a very large machine, which is something Helion was trying to move away from. In addition, according to the paper, their energy collection system at best can collect energy on a similar magnitude to what was injected – which leaves very little margin for error.
The Challenge for Adiabatically Heated FRC Based D-He Fusion
- Research
- Open access
- Published: 25 March 2026
- Volume 45, article number 24 (2026)
- Cite this article
You have full access to this open access article
Abstract
The performance requirements of fusion reactors based on FRC adiabatic compression with a D-He fuel are discussed. Assuming thermonuclear reaction rates, confinement times exceeding 10 ms are required for peak magnetic fields below 25 T. The typical thermodynamic cycle of such reactors in current/flux variables is computed. The fact that most magnetic energy is channeled to vacuum magnetic energy, instead of heating the plasma, translates into a very elongated thermodynamical cycle. The consequences for the viability of this type of reactors are discussed.
Read more: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10894-026-00565-z
My biggest concern with Helion’s approach, Helion’s big idea – using Helium 3 for fusion rather than Tritium and Deuterium – is like trying to solve the next nuclear fusion problem before you have solved the current problem. Helium 3 fusion is at least a thousand times harder than Tritium fusion because you have to work with a much hotter plasma, and the energy yield is a lot lower, but Helion jumped straight into the hard path, and rejected the possibility of using Tritium as a stepping stone proving ground for their hard path technology.
And they’ve taken an estimated $1.5 billion of investor capital with them on their wildly speculative leap into the darkness (The $15 billion Sabine mentions appears to be the current valuation of the company).
One interesting feature of Helion is how much attention and investment they attracted from Silicon valley tech giants, you know, the same clowns who tried to convince us to switch to unworkable renewable energy solutions. Anyone starting to see a pattern here?
Lets just say I’m not personally rushing to invest.
