A place for discussion
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A place for discussion
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August 2, 2026 2:07 am
How sensitive is the lower atmosphere to the computed static IR “warming” tendency from rising concentrations of CO2? That tendency is in units of Watts per square meter, W/m^2. For the 2XCO2 case, it is about 4 W/m^2. Hold that thought.
Consider this scatter plot of hourly values from the ERA5 reanalysis model for all hours of 2024 for all longitudes at latitude 45N. Using the 700 hPa pressure level in the atmosphere (~3 km), the “vertical velocity” on the y-axis is plotted against the “vertical integral of energy conversion” on the x-axis. Each dot represents one pair of these values for a particular hour at a particular longitude.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RSBKvIb5pP3OtB8U2RDig-041_bxCqDj/view?usp=sharing
The “vertical velocity” is given in units of Pascals per second, using the rate of pressure change to represent vertical movement. Positive values indicate descending air, with implied compression heating. Negative values indicate ascending air, with implied expansion cooling. At this altitude, in standard conditions, a +/- 1 Pa/sec vertical velocity corresponds to a +/- 3.8 deg C(K) per hour rate of compression heating /expansion cooling. The vertical scale goes from -3 to +3 Pa/sec to capture most of the paired values.
The “vertical integral of energy conversion” is given in Watts per square meter, W/m^2. Negative values represent the power intensity of conversion of [internal energy + potential energy] -> [kinetic energy] for the entire column of the atmosphere. Positive values represent the power intensity of conversion of [kinetic energy] -> [internal energy + potential energy] for the entire column of the atmosphere. The horizontal scale goes from -15,000 to +15,000 W/m^2 to capture most of the paired values. (Please note that kinetic energy here is computed using the bulk wind velocity. The internal energy involves the kinetic energy of molecules at the microscopic level.)
So what’s the answer? The lower atmosphere operates dynamically with values of vertical velocity in both directions that imply large hourly rates of compression heating and expansion cooling, and with large hourly values of energy conversion in both directions so as to make it inherently insensitive to the ~4 W/m^2 “warming” tendency of the 2XCO2 case. It’s a needle-in-a-haystack, flea-on-an-elephant, spitting-into-a-hurricane impossibility to isolate incremental CO2 as a cause of any trend of climate variables.
Threfore it has been implausible all along, for these physical reasons, to assume that incremental CO2 operates as a climate system “forcing.” No one knows that.
Thank you for your patience in these consequential matters.
P.S. Please see this Open Thread post from a few months ago for a more complete explanation. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/03/15/open-thread-181/#comment-4174555
“You can go outside and spit and have the
same effect as doubling carbon dioxide.”
Reid Bryson
IPCC TAR Chapter 14 Page 771 pdf3
The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system,
and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate
states is not possible.
August 2, 2026 2:32 am
Compared to the late 1960s and early 1970s, over a typical January we now enjoy almost 50% more hours of sunshine. Over the whole year, we get about 13% additional hours of sunshine. That amounts to more than 30 extra minutes of sunshine per day.
Ironically, these changes appear to be rather more to do with the absence of pollution than because of it. And surprise, surprise, more sunshine equates to higher temperatures.
And the alarm has been ringing out right across the universe, forests and woods are spontaneously combusting – despite never reaching their flashpoint unaided.
The Scottish Government has declared that climate change – not changes to land management – is driving Scotland’s growing wildfire crisis, setting up a direct clash with farmers.
And it’s back to the old gaslighting routine as that and this next example shows. We still do not know which way comrade Burnham is going to jump on energy…
Burnham risks first revolt as PM over apparent support for North Sea drilling
Labour MPs fear No 10 team lack up-to-date energy insight and don’t fully recognise voters’ climate concerns
Lacking up to date energy insight? How so?
Miatta Fahnbulleh is one of Andy Burnham’s key confidants, spearheading his agenda on energy, devolution and the cost of living. Policies the MP for Peckham has previously endorsed suggest the country is in for a sharp leftward lurch
Maybe he wasn’t paying attention to what she told him?
August 2, 2026 2:39 am
I’ve been thinking a lot about climate change, human priorities, and where our money actually goes.
We, especially, in Europe and North America talk constantly about “climate crisis”. We worry about another 1°C of warming over more than a century. We worry about a few days each summer that feel uncomfortable. We worry about heatwaves that last a week or two.
But here’s (my) truth:
People in Europe and North America ‘will’ survive another degree of warming.
We have strong housing, clean water, sanitation, healthcare, refrigeration, emergency services, and infrastructure. We have air conditioning if we need it. We have governments that can respond. We have the ability to adapt.
Meanwhile, down the road,.…
Millions of people in Africa suffer every single day not from climate change, but from lack of clean water.
Not “in 2050”. Not “in 2100”. Not “if we don’t act”. But today.
Every day:
- children die from water‑borne diseases
- families walk miles to collect unsafe water
- crops fail because wells run dry
- girls miss school because they spend hours fetching water
- communities lose livestock to thirst
- preventable diseases spread because sanitation is impossible without water
Here is the part that should make all of us stop and think.
The world has spent in the region of $40–50 trillion on climate change since 1988.
That’s not a typo. Trillions every year, and still rising fast.
Now let us consider:
0.001% of that money – just one thousandth of one percent could give clean water to tens of millions of Africans.
0.001% of $40 trillion = $400 million
0.001% of $50 trillion = $500 million
With that amount, we could:
- build 30,000–50,000 village wells
- give 20–40 million people clean water for life
- eliminate most water‑borne disease in entire regions
- stop children dying from diarrhoea
- stop women walking 5–10 miles a day for water
- stop schools closing because there’s no water
- stop communities losing livestock to drought
All for 0.001% of what we already spend on climate.
Not 1%. Not 0.1%. Not even 0.01%.
Just 0.001%.
The tragedy isn’t cost – it’s just a basic priority.
We spend trillions on climate models, conferences, subsidies, and infrastructure in wealthy nations… while millions of people die from problems that cost pennies to solve.
I’m not saying climate change doesn’t matter. I’m not denying greenhouse physics. I’m not denying warming. I’m not denying CO₂ plays a role, including anthropogenic CO₂.
But I am saying this:
If we truly care about human life, then clean water in Africa should be the world’s first climate priority because it saves lives today, not in 2050.
Europe and North America will cope with another degree of warming. Africa cannot cope with another decade of thirst.
If we want to “save the world”, maybe we should start by saving the people who need help right now!
Demand the UN act now, today, to resolve this basic human right.
Both problems need to be solved. And it’s more than a FeW hOt DaYs for europe. Playing out one against the other doesn’t help.
If you cared about human life you would advocate for renewables, more sustainable transport and mitigating climate change.
From a short search:
Extreme weather and climate events impact millions in Africa in 2025
https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/extreme-weather-and-climate-events-impact-millions-africa-2025
The past and future impact of climate change on childhood malaria in Africa
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10840-w
United Nations Fact Sheet on Climate Change (Warning, PDF)
https://unfccc.int/files/press/backgrounders/application/pdf/factsheet_africa.pdf
And of you want to advocate for money spend for better uses, why not start here:
Top 25 countries by military spending in 2026.
https://militaryspend.org/country-profiles
Fewer blown up school girls in foreign countries sounds like a good start to me.
If you are from the US advocate for the restart of US AID
USAID shutdown has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths
https://hsph.harvard.edu/news/usaid-shutdown-has-led-to-hundreds-of-thousands-of-deaths/
CO2 does nothing. All the expenditure on wind and solar attached to the grid is a horrible waste of money for ignorant voters who believe what they are told by the UN.
There is a good paper that analysis the AIRS satellite OLR spectrum. The author went looking for data to confirm the influence of CO2 by its absorption over the last to decades. He first discarded all daytime readings because solar reflections makes it impossible to detect the CO2 absorption. Then he had to cull 89% of the nighttime data because it was cloudy and ice has broad spectrum absorption for long wave radiation so CO2 cannot be detected. So after discarding 94.5% of all the data he was able to calculate the changing absorption of CO2. Then there is an almighty assumption that the CO2 absorption actually changes the radiation balance. This is a link to the paper:
RADIATIVE FORCING BY CO2 OBSERVED AT TOP OF ATMOSPHERE FROM 2002-2019
The fact is that solar energy over the tropics has been slowly trending up for the last 700 years. The tropics is responding to that increase by more moisture being evaporated into the atmosphere. So the atmosphere is more energetic and able to transport more heat poleward. This is how the current interglacial in the NH terminates as snowfall once again overtakes snow melt. So far only on Greenland above 2300m.
August 2, 2026 2:47 am
Say it loud, say it proud…
Chris Murray, the Labour MP for Edinburgh East and Musselburgh, said the UK must stay the course on decarbonisation. “Britain was the first country to industrialise and we have a duty to lead the world on net zero. – Guardian
Yes, it is our duty to lead the deindustrial revolution.
August 2, 2026 2:55 am
UN has managed to create a cargo cult response to changing climate. They have Europeans marching into energy poverty in the vain hope of fixing the weather that is in no way broken.
The climate is doing what it has done for billions of years – changing. None of the current changes are of historical significance. The tropics have been getting more solar energy now for 700 years and the effects of that is a gentle warming trend as atmospheric moisture increases and the atmosphere becomes more energetic.
The Southern Hemisphere is trending to milder extremes while the NH is trending toward warmer summers and wetter, snowier winters – more extreme. This means energy poverty is now a serious threat to health in regions that need both warming and cooling to make conditions suitable for humans,
Not burning carbon is in the same category as burning witches to fix the weather. Europe is returning to the dark ages where odd beliefs trump scientific observation.
August 2, 2026 3:03 am
Looks like the Iran thing is still a disaster for trump.
In Iran, the U.S. Appears Headed for a Strategic Defeat, Allies Fear
Iranian missiles and drones not only restrict traffic through the strait and damage the economic infrastructure of allied energy production, but they also continue to threaten American bases across the Middle East and have killed or injured American service members.
DUI hire Hegseth told us that can’t be. Curious.
And he can’t stop antagonizing US allies
Trump says Greenland will be under US control by the time he leaves office
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-greenland-threats-europe-b3025688.html
At least he’s getting the world to move faster away from fossil fuels. And from the US and the petrodollar
Quarterly sales of electric cars break records in several key markets amid energy crisis
https://www.iea.org/news/quarterly-sales-of-electric-cars-break-records-in-several-key-markets-amid-energy-crisis
In Australia, Brazil, India, Korea and Viet Nam – all sizeable electric car markets – sales roughly doubled between March and June compared with the same period in 2025. Overall, more than 90 countries recorded year-on-year growth in electric car sales during the first half of 2026.
August 2, 2026 3:14 am
The Central England Temperature data for July is as you would expect exceptional in the near 400 year series.
The mean temperature was 3.5C above the climatological average. This ranked second to 2006 by 0.3C, and was 0.9C above 1976.
The maximum temperatures averaged 5.3C above, with every single day well above the average. This ranked first, a statistical tie with 2006, and was 1.4C above 1976.
Southern England was even warmer with average maximum temperatures about 2C higher than the CET, well over 27C, astonishing. Also had record sunshine and record low rainfall for July, and any month in 190 years for one or both (can’t remember what the weatherman said).
The number of UK days above 30C in 2026 so far is way ahead of 1976, second only to 1995 which had 34. 2026 is only 2 or 3 days behind that.
