The Global Tipping Points Report 2025, Part 1: Catastrophe, Certainty, and the Architecture of Urgency

Charles Rotter This begins a multipart, systematic refutation of the University of Exeter’s Global Tipping Points Report 2025. The report spans 379 pages, involves 160 researchers across 87 institutions, and explicitly targets policymakers, financial institutions, corporations, and civil society actors. It presents itself as a synthesis of climate science. In substance, it functions as a governance manifesto. It advocates financial reallocation, industrial restructuring, narrative management, le...

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February 17, 2026 10:06 am

Not a premium subscriber so can’t comment on that. But meanwhile, one climate activist has changed her mind.

Confessions of a Former Climate Activist

Before I met Lucy at The Free Press offices, she was fighting to ban plastic straws and posing with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Greta Thunberg. In today’s Confession, Lucy tells us about her time in the climate movement, when she became a prominent voice on social media. She protested the Dakota Access Pipeline and pushed for the Green New Deal to be passed. Now, Lucy describes herself as a climate realist. She doesn’t think the world is going to implode because the Earth is heating up, and she definitely doesn’t think paper straws are going to save us. In our conversation, we talk about the moment she started to question the climate movement, what it took to walk away from the cause she defined herself by, and what the science tells us now about climate change.

Scissor
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
February 17, 2026 10:08 am

Myself, I’m waiting for Guam to capsize. In the meantime, Bill Maher shows his ignorance.

https://x.com/PezeshkiCharles/status/2022705336826892776

Gregory Woods
Reply to  Scissor
February 17, 2026 10:13 am

and I am waiting for Washington DC to capsize.

abolition man
Reply to  Gregory Woods
February 17, 2026 12:08 pm

Sadly, most of the critters living in the District of Corruption are well adapted for swampy conditions, so few would be adversely affected by capsizing. Of course, the act of capsizing might cause some liquid surges that would wash a bit of effluvium away; but don’t expect much to change until extensive drainage ditches and pumping stations are added to the mix.
If only the current administration was committed to that task, rather than allowing MI6 and Mossad to lead them around by the nose, toward more highly profitable wars!

KevinM
Reply to  abolition man
February 17, 2026 12:36 pm

The thought leaders of Cold War government are mostly retired. Their trainees will be retiring soon. I don’t know whether the next leadership will be better or worse, but they’ll be different. Imagine leaders who have not been told how many nuclear warheads are in the world (They’re still here, just not on the front burner) and not been sold space defense satellite systems (They’re still up there, just not doing anything newsworthy). I’m trying to think up an analogy where geological processes make previous layers of political swamp into hydrocarbons we can burn to keep warm in the winter.

abolition man
Reply to  KevinM
February 17, 2026 12:56 pm

Sadly, Russophobia remains a major player in DC, with cheerleading by the Brits! Putin is a gangster, but he has been trying for decades to get economic agreements with the West. The CIA instigated color revolution in Ukraine was a bridge too far even for him, leading to the SMO that is still ongoing. Sadly, Trump seems to be reneging on his promise to end the conflict in 24 hours! I’ d guess that there are too many snouts still sucking out of that overly large trough for anyone to end the corruption there easily!

KevinM
Reply to  abolition man
February 17, 2026 8:06 pm

Putin is 73 years old now.
“As of 2023–2024, Russia’s life expectancy at birth has recovered to approximately 73.2–73.5 years, rebounding from a significant dip caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Eg Yeltsin: Died at 76
Eg Gorbachev: Died at 91 (Good work Mikhail!)
Eg Khrushchev: Died at 77
Eg Brezhnev: Died at 76

Ddwieland
Reply to  Scissor
February 17, 2026 10:33 am

Yeah, Bill really shamed himself with that display of scientific ignorance. Nobody expects comedians to major in chemistry, but I thought most ordinary people knew that there’s a difference between carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide. Apparently Bill has forgotten that.

Reply to  Scissor
February 17, 2026 2:29 pm

Oh, well- he blew that one- but, in recent years he’s become very anti woke. Got give him credit when he does something right too.

oeman50
Reply to  Scissor
February 18, 2026 4:44 am

Actually, it’s capSIZE. Hehe

February 17, 2026 10:40 am

” ….. 160 researchers …. ”

Well, I suppose it kept them off the streets ….. .

Reply to  Oldseadog
February 17, 2026 11:12 am

That’s a lot of taxpayer money being wasted there.

Reply to  Oldseadog
February 17, 2026 11:22 am

…. They would not make any money on the streets. !!

February 17, 2026 11:30 am

STORY TIPHeavy snow postpones Winter Olympics snowboard, ski competitions
Snowfall triggered a postponement of activities Tuesday at the 2026 Winter Olympics, including snowboarding and skiing events in Livigno, Italy.

Another generation of Italian Children know what snow is.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
February 17, 2026 1:30 pm

Snow during Winter Olympics!

KevinM
February 17, 2026 11:33 am

“Charles Rotter… begins a multipart, systematic refutation of … 379 pages … 160 researchers … 87 institutions”

My money’s on Rotter. One clear-thinking human defeats “too many cooks in the kitchen”.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  KevinM
February 17, 2026 11:44 am

It doesn’t need 100, it only takes 1.

John Hultquist
Reply to  KevinM
February 17, 2026 4:50 pm

Agree. Looking forward to CR’s next.

February 17, 2026 1:22 pm

How about these “climate tipping points” that have been positively reached/surpassed so far as of 2026:

1) Repeal of the EPA “endangerment finding” that CO2 is a toxic gas (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/02/14/we-told-you-so-epa-was-wrong-about-co2-from-the-start/ ),

2) Admission that the UN/IPCC/AGW-CAGW organizations-declared tipping point of a 1.5 C rise in GLAT since 1850-1900 was in fact exceeded in 2025 without such triggering any noticeable—let alone catastrophic—environmental effects (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/02/12/guardian-claims-were-still-only-approaching-the-climate-point-of-no-return/ ),

3) Recognition that global warming over the last 200 years (of whatever magnitude of temperature increase and however measured) could in fact be nothing more than a NATURALLY OCCURRING Dansgaard-Oeschger event, as have occurred repeatedly in the past (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/02/12/pollen-reconstructions-show-the-last-glacials-warming-events-were-global-10x-greater-than-modern/ ),

4) The University of East Anglia finally admitting there is an Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect that affects measurements used to derive “global temperature” magnitudes and trending (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/02/16/the-university-of-east-anglia-discovers-the-urban-heat-island-effect/ ),

5) Confirmation that decades of satellite data show the globe has been substantially greening – as defined by rising Leaf Area Index (LAI) values – since the 1980s, with such being scientifically established as caused by the “CO2 fertilization effect (CFE)” whereby higher concentrations of atmospheric CO2 enhance plant productivity via improved CO2 availability with attendant increases in light use efficiency and water use efficiency. (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/01/31/new-study-affirms-rising-co2s-greening-impact-across-india-a-region-with-no-net-warming-in-75-years/ ). 

Rud Istvan
February 17, 2026 1:24 pm

Am sure Charles has done a good refutation post.

I was curious about the origins of the report, so looked it up. Comes from Global-Tipping-Points.org, and was prepared as ‘a call to arms for COP30’—itself a predictable exercise in futility. The first Global Tiiping Points report was prepared in 2023 for COP27–obviously was very ‘effective’/s .Org this year cites 10 tipping points, the top five listed below all many times previously debunked.

  1. Coral reef bleaching heat death—except bleaching is the corals mechanism of reprovisioning with better adapted zooxanthelae. The thriving GBR is but one example.
  2. WAIS collapse. Except the one paper claiming this happened before during the Eemian (so could happen again!) is a clear case of academic misconduct, exposed in essay One if by Land in ebook Blowing Smoke back in 2014.
  3. Arctic permafrost thaw leading to a methane ‘bomb’ catastrophe. Except experimental research has shown that any thawing permafrost freed methane is immediately consumed by simultaneous growth of prokaryotic methanotrophs.
  4. AMOC collapse. Except the RAPID cross- Atlantic buoy array designed to monitor AMOC shows no such tendency over the past few decades.
  5. Amazon rainforest decimation. Except to the extent it is happening illegally in Brazil, has nothing to do with climate change or COP30.

And to heap on more well deserved ridicule of this .org, the ‘expert’ noted by the website concerning Canadian permafrost is Dr. Courtney Howard—a Canadian emergency room physician.

John Hultquist
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 17, 2026 4:57 pm

I don’t always get climate information from medical doctors, but when I do, I always consult with emergency room physicians. 🙂

Sparta Nova 4
February 17, 2026 2:01 pm

The number one deficiency is there is no definition of the optimum climate, stated in metrics that are measurable by anyone.

We do not know if we are approaching the climate optimum or have departed from it.

An analysis of one alternative.
Primary assumption: Mother Nature or Gaia is real, wise, intelligent, and loving.
Of course she occasionally spanks humans, but that is just to get them to pay attention.

Is it not possible that such a kind and loving entity would recognize that the human population growth needed more CO2 to fuel the food pyramid? And if true, then perhaps it is Gaia herself, not humans, that is causing the slow increase in atmospheric CO2.

Try to disprove that conjecture by formulating and conducting null hypotheses.

Cheers.

Curious George
February 17, 2026 3:02 pm

WUWT is descending into irrelevance.

Mario Barbafiera
Reply to  Curious George
February 17, 2026 4:08 pm

except that its relevant enough for you to post an inane comment

Reply to  Curious George
February 17, 2026 4:19 pm

Once the “climate change” nonsense is nailed into its coffin…

… there is plenty of real science that can be discussed.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Curious George
February 18, 2026 7:59 am

Proof? Or are you just expressing your nonsensical opinion?

Ddwieland
February 17, 2026 6:23 pm

The climate tipping point I’m waiting for is when the number of false claims becomes so large that alarmists wake up to reality.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Ddwieland
February 18, 2026 8:00 am

Don’t hold your breath. They have a lot of creativity in such matters.

Westfieldmike
February 18, 2026 12:42 am

Watching Winter olympics at a friends house, it was hilarious to see the BBC forced to show live tv of a lovely snowstorm during the snowboarding event. You could hardly see the action through the snow.