Texas Showdown: ERCOT vs Winter Storm Fern

Guest “long-time, no-posts” by David Middleton

Texans recently experienced our worst winter storm since Uri in February 2021. Here in the DFW area, the temperature dropped below freezing early on Saturday morning, January 24, and stayed below 32 °F until the afternoon of January 27. In Dallas, we experienced freezing rain, sleet and snow for two straight days (January 24-25).

Fern impacted about half of the Lower 48…

Things were so rough that alleged energy expert and frequent ERCOT critic Ed Hirs was predicting the imminent collapse of the grid on Saturday afternoon…

The heavy stuff won’t be here until later, and the ERCOT grid is already showing stress.

map

But… Somehow the ERCOT grid held up just fine…

Winter Storm Fern – January 2026
Summary
During Winter Storm Fern, ERCOT successfully managed the Texas electric grid through a period of extreme cold and freezing precipitation, utilizing available tools and resources to ensure electricity demand was met safely and reliably. The statewide grid performed well; ERCOT did not need to call for conservation, did not issue an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA), and there were no systemwide power outages.

ERCOT

Any guesses as to which generation fuel carried the load?

Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc. (ERCO) electricity generation by energy source 1-na24-2026 – 1-28-2026, Central Time, EIA Hourly Grid Monitor.

Natural gas carried the load, despite the fact that more gas production was shut-in due to freeze-offs than during Uri.

How could this be? Firstly, natural gas production in January 2026 was about 20 Bcf/d higher than it was in February 2021. And, secondly, more than enough gas was available in storage to cover the short-fall.

While the deep freeze temporarily spiked natural gas prices to >$30/mcf, prices quickly fell back to pre-fern levels.

EIA

Natural gas literally kicked @$$!

From January 24 through January 27, fossil fuels and nuclear power delivered 77% of the electricity, wind delivered delivered a fairly steady 15% and the combination of solar power and batteries delivered a paltry 8% of the electricity generation desoite this…

Solar Gains Traction
Texas managed to install as much solar power capacity to its grid last year as it did in 2024, despite the lack of federal support and with the additional pressure of tariffs, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found.

Despite the range of headwinds, the Dallas Fed said utility-scale solar power will remain an important source of energy for the grid in Texas for years to come.

Texas is the top state for utility-scale solar power generation. Industrial Info is tracking 25 solar projects in the state in the construction phase with a high probability of completion that are worth an estimated $9.5 billion. Greenalia Power U.S. is behind the largest of those, with a $1.04 billion project slated for Childress, Texas.

Link

If ERCOT only had more solar power and batteries!

Solar actually performed very well on the afternoon of January 26, nearly knocking coal off the grid for an hour or two…

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck… Peak solar delivery occurred right when demand was bottoming out. When solar power works as intended, it totally disrupts the reliable components of the grid. Fortunately, it rarely works as intended. Just two days earlier, solar delivered almost nothing…

So…

Get notified when a new post is published.
Subscribe today!
5 3 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
3 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Bruce Cobb
February 17, 2026 2:59 am

It’s amazing how whenever coal power drops, solar jumps in and saves the day.

Scissor
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 17, 2026 3:40 am

Truth be told, coal is a vintage form of naturally processed solar energy.

strativarius
February 17, 2026 3:35 am

California is the one to watch, now. Strangely, TV and radio are blanking this important news.

Britain strengthens ties with California as new clean energy and climate agreement signed

Britain has forged a deeper alliance with California on clean energy and climate action, as Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and Governor Gavin Newsom signed a new agreement aimed at boosting transatlantic investment and environmental protection.
The memorandum of understanding (MOU) was formalised during a meeting at the Munich Security Conference in Germany on Monday.
This accord seeks to stimulate transatlantic investment, enhance collaboration between research institutions, facilitate access to the Californian market for clean energy businesses, and exchange expertise on nature conservation and building resilience against extreme weather events.

Recognising their shared ambition and established partnership in clean energy, the newly signed accord provides a refreshed framework to accelerate the transition through innovation, scaling new technologies, and connecting experts across both economies.

“Strong international partnerships like today’s announcement with the State of California strengthens opportunities for UK businesses and secures investment for our country.” The Independent

Living up to the monicker of Mad Ed that was more than logically bestowed upon him after all those dud claims about booming green jobs and investment, and cutting bills by £300…

Latest figures from the ONS show the unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in the three months to December. Up from 5.1% in the previous month and the highest level since January 2021… – Guido Fawkes

Alignment confirmed…

California unemployment set to rise as the economy continues to suffer LA Times

Trebles all round.