Texas Showdown: ERCOT vs Winter Storm Fern

Guest “long-time, no-posts” by David Middleton

Texans recently experienced our worst winter storm since Uri in February 2021. Here in the DFW area, the temperature dropped below freezing early on Saturday morning, January 24, and stayed below 32 °F until the afternoon of January 27. In Dallas, we experienced freezing rain, sleet and snow for two straight days (January 24-25).

Fern impacted about half of the Lower 48…

Things were so rough that alleged energy expert and frequent ERCOT critic Ed Hirs was predicting the imminent collapse of the grid on Saturday afternoon…

The heavy stuff won’t be here until later, and the ERCOT grid is already showing stress.

map

But… Somehow the ERCOT grid held up just fine…

Winter Storm Fern – January 2026
Summary
During Winter Storm Fern, ERCOT successfully managed the Texas electric grid through a period of extreme cold and freezing precipitation, utilizing available tools and resources to ensure electricity demand was met safely and reliably. The statewide grid performed well; ERCOT did not need to call for conservation, did not issue an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA), and there were no systemwide power outages.

ERCOT

Any guesses as to which generation fuel carried the load?

Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc. (ERCO) electricity generation by energy source 1-na24-2026 – 1-28-2026, Central Time, EIA Hourly Grid Monitor.

Natural gas carried the load, despite the fact that more gas production was shut-in due to freeze-offs than during Uri.

How could this be? Firstly, natural gas production in January 2026 was about 20 Bcf/d higher than it was in February 2021. And, secondly, more than enough gas was available in storage to cover the short-fall.

While the deep freeze temporarily spiked natural gas prices to >$30/mcf, prices quickly fell back to pre-fern levels.

EIA

Natural gas literally kicked @$$!

From January 24 through January 27, fossil fuels and nuclear power delivered 77% of the electricity, wind delivered delivered a fairly steady 15% and the combination of solar power and batteries delivered a paltry 8% of the electricity generation desoite this…

Solar Gains Traction
Texas managed to install as much solar power capacity to its grid last year as it did in 2024, despite the lack of federal support and with the additional pressure of tariffs, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found.

Despite the range of headwinds, the Dallas Fed said utility-scale solar power will remain an important source of energy for the grid in Texas for years to come.

Texas is the top state for utility-scale solar power generation. Industrial Info is tracking 25 solar projects in the state in the construction phase with a high probability of completion that are worth an estimated $9.5 billion. Greenalia Power U.S. is behind the largest of those, with a $1.04 billion project slated for Childress, Texas.

Link

If ERCOT only had more solar power and batteries!

Solar actually performed very well on the afternoon of January 26, nearly knocking coal off the grid for an hour or two…

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck… Peak solar delivery occurred right when demand was bottoming out. When solar power works as intended, it totally disrupts the reliable components of the grid. Fortunately, it rarely works as intended. Just two days earlier, solar delivered almost nothing…

So…

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Bruce Cobb
February 17, 2026 2:59 am

It’s amazing how whenever coal power drops, solar jumps in and saves the day.

Scissor
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 17, 2026 3:40 am

Truth be told, coal is a vintage form of naturally processed solar energy.

Bryan A
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 17, 2026 5:34 am

Snark, Snark, Snark 😆

joe-Dallas
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 17, 2026 6:29 am

I ran a calc of Mark Jacobson’s 100% renewable study for the US using his table S9 for installed capacity for 2050, then plugged in the actual capacity for the 1.20.2026 through 1.28.2026 (4amEst) using the EIA actual capacity numbers and actual demand #’s.

The result is that there is a 27 hour period starting on 1.24.2026 at 4pm and another 14 hour period starting at 5pm whereby there is a 25%-30% shortage of electric supply (even including battery backup). This being the winter, there is very little excess electric generation capacity at other times to recharge the batteries.

Jacobson brags about his “Every 30 second stress test” which is dubious. One item worth noting is Jacobson appears to rely heavily on “averages”, average capacity, average demand, etc. Anyone that has worked in a manufacturing environment, knows that “averages” are a terrible metric when production is highly volatile, ie variable.

joe-Dallas
Reply to  joe-Dallas
February 17, 2026 7:03 am

A couple of additional points
A – Jacobson’s build out for renewables is about 2.5x the demand using the “average actual capacity factor”.
B – One of the fallacies of using “average capacity factor” is it hides the massive swings in actual capacity.
C – The February 2021 freeze had a 7-10 day drop in actual capacity factor for wind ranging from 60%-90% drop across the entire north american continent. While the Texas / ERCOT had a 36 hour drop of approx 40% of the High, Not average electric generation from natural gas. That fiasco was limited to ERCOT while the loss of wind actual capacity was across the entire north american continent. That is a recipe for a complete grid collapse with a few million dead during a major polar vortex.

hdhoese
Reply to  joe-Dallas
February 17, 2026 8:30 am

There is a long known ecological reality of limiting factors (Liebig, 1840), called “the law of the minimum.” If one doesn’t understand mechanics how about statistics, median sometimes more instructive than mean. Considerably more fish died on the Texas coast in 2021, few in 2026 when the reported water temperatures were closer to average. Pipes don’t break based on ‘averages.’

Denis
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 17, 2026 7:01 am

Saves the day? Sometimes it helps, but never does it save the night.

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 18, 2026 7:39 am

Texas is good place for solar, it has practically same monthly average production during year:
Average monthly gain from ample 6kW system, 24m2 of panels is 705kWh in December and 838kWh in March
That is 22,7kWh per day average. With car sized 100kWh home battery as 5 days backup it would be enough to be fully electrically self sufficient household.
EV lovers, heated pool lovers can scale accordingly.

texas_solar
strativarius
February 17, 2026 3:35 am

California is the one to watch, now. Strangely, TV and radio are blanking this important news.

Britain strengthens ties with California as new clean energy and climate agreement signed

Britain has forged a deeper alliance with California on clean energy and climate action, as Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and Governor Gavin Newsom signed a new agreement aimed at boosting transatlantic investment and environmental protection.
The memorandum of understanding (MOU) was formalised during a meeting at the Munich Security Conference in Germany on Monday.
This accord seeks to stimulate transatlantic investment, enhance collaboration between research institutions, facilitate access to the Californian market for clean energy businesses, and exchange expertise on nature conservation and building resilience against extreme weather events.

Recognising their shared ambition and established partnership in clean energy, the newly signed accord provides a refreshed framework to accelerate the transition through innovation, scaling new technologies, and connecting experts across both economies.

“Strong international partnerships like today’s announcement with the State of California strengthens opportunities for UK businesses and secures investment for our country.” The Independent

Living up to the monicker of Mad Ed that was more than logically bestowed upon him after all those dud claims about booming green jobs and investment, and cutting bills by £300…

Latest figures from the ONS show the unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in the three months to December. Up from 5.1% in the previous month and the highest level since January 2021… – Guido Fawkes

Alignment confirmed…

California unemployment set to rise as the economy continues to suffer LA Times

Trebles all round.

strativarius
Reply to  strativarius
February 17, 2026 4:00 am

The elephant in the room…

Mr Trump told Politico: “The UK’s got enough trouble without getting involved with Gavin Newscum.” “Gavin is a loser. Everything he’s touched turns to garbage. His state has gone to hell, and his environmental work is a disaster. People are leaving.” “The worst thing that the UK can do is get involved in Gavin. If they did to the UK what he did to California, this will not be a very successful venture.” GB News

One wonders if Labour wants to take a pop at Trump? It would be ill advised.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  strativarius
February 17, 2026 4:33 am

The U.S. Constitution (Article I, Section 10) explicitly forbids states from entering any “Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation” and requires “Consent of Congress” for any “Agreement or Compact” with a foreign power.

I just hope that Newsom hasn’t broken any law. It would be a shame if he had to go to prison.

strativarius
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 17, 2026 4:45 am

One wonders if Labour wants to take a pop at Trump? It would be ill advised.

Deep down all those things all those Labour people said about Trump haven’t really changed. They’re in the public domain, but now they have to wear a fixed grin and repress those thoughts. One example…

Mr Miliband labelled Mr Trump a “groper” and a “racist” in November 2016.

“The idea that we have shared values with a racist, misogynistic, self-confessed groper beggars belief,” Mr Miliband told the BBC. “And I think we should be deeply worried about the implications for many of the things that we care about.  – Herald Scotland

In short, Labour loathes Trump, but has to live with him.

abolition man
Reply to  strativarius
February 17, 2026 5:51 am

Hey, Strat! How do you feel about the Televarius?
From the early returns on the Epstein file dump, it looks like the creep owned TWO islands; Litttle Saint James AND Great Britain! Well, at least large chunks of the ruling classes there! It’s always worrisome when two powerful sociopaths decide to cooperate; like two wolves and a sheep deciding what is for lunch!
I hope and pray that the overlong rule of Mad King Ed will end soon, and the British people can once again take up the mantle of defenders of democracy! That will put you at odds with the crypto-Fascists in Brussels, unfortunately; so tread lightly!

strativarius
Reply to  abolition man
February 17, 2026 6:07 am

the Epstein file dump

It’s a very handy distraction from the far greater Pakistani/Bangladeshi rape gangs of blanc working class girls.

We were told it was a far right bandwagon

Sir Keir Starmer sparks backlash after blaming ‘far-Right’ for outrage over lack of grooming gang inquiryLBC

And now the whole issue has been kicked into the very long grass. But why? Well, consider well over 50 towns and cities [mostly Labour controlled] across Britain where the childrens’ homes, social services, schools, police, council officials and councillors etc all turned a blind eye to it. They say they didn’t want to be called racist, islamophobic etc. Well, here is the fact that instructions to ignore it came from the very top and why that inquiry will never be held.

I give you the former chief prosecutor for North West England (Crown Prosecution Service)

abolition man
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 17, 2026 5:37 am

Putting Newscum in prison would have the effect of giving his poor benighted fellow inmates lessons in sociopathic behavior; redundant in far too many cases! Isolation in an old Chinese laundry would be more apropos.

Bryan A
Reply to  strativarius
February 17, 2026 5:35 am

I thought individual states couldn’t enter into agreement with foreign countries.
That Pesky US Constitution.

strativarius
Reply to  Bryan A
February 17, 2026 5:46 am

I have no idea on the US legality of that. Maybe there is a loophole?

Denis
Reply to  strativarius
February 17, 2026 7:11 am

Article 1, Sectoin 10 of the Constitution is very clear.

jvcstone
Reply to  Denis
February 17, 2026 7:53 am

Unfortunately, no one in power pays any attention to the US constitution any longer, and haven’t for many, many years.

Petey Bird
Reply to  strativarius
February 17, 2026 8:33 am

California and the UK could build a energy transition link and share their surplus energy.
That would be brilliant. Surely they would find it to be economically viable.

ricksanchez769
February 17, 2026 4:30 am

TL,DR…such a convoluted article – good thing Ai can summarize to 250 words

strativarius
Reply to  ricksanchez769
February 17, 2026 4:48 am

good thing Ai can summarize to 250 words

The 30-Second Attention Span….

paul courtney
Reply to  ricksanchez769
February 17, 2026 5:27 am

Mr. sanchez: Thanks for letting us know right upfront that you prefer not to know too much.

Reply to  ricksanchez769
February 17, 2026 5:54 am

Glad they girded up the natural gas to electricity infrastructure, per multiple recommendations. Looks like they did not qualitatively improve the freeze hardening of individual wells and/or fields. But they did (1) increase overall fair weather deliverability from the sum of producing wells – perhaps partly from increasing gas/oil ratios – and (2) increase gas storage. (2) was probably the big hitter, It not only helps with overall deliverability, but stored gas has been pre-polished to reduce non methane hydrocarbon constituents and water, improve Wobbe factor, etc. IOW, it’s more reliable in freezing weather. Possibly more bang for the buck than my old, repeated, whinings about the need for more gas production units, more dehydrators, modern chemical injection, better remote monitoring, and so on.

As for the – er – interesting – writing style – Mr. Middleton might be involuntarily disconnecting from Oil World, and hanging out the ubiquitous “consultant” shingle. The oil patch name of the game now is M&A consolidation and right sizing, with the run offs mentioned multi weekly in Texas business reporting. He might be getting distracted by Spending More Time With His 11 Dogs (per last mention I saw from him) and is thus losing his lit coherence.

John Hultquist
Reply to  David Middleton
February 17, 2026 8:02 am

 I guy with 12 dogs is at the top of my list. For about 15 years, my wife and I averaged about that. When puppies came, there were sometimes a lot more.
We used a lot of petroleum products going to shows, field trials, training, and veterinarians. 🙂

abolition man
Reply to  David Middleton
February 17, 2026 12:13 pm

Chihuahua-Weasel? I thought those only inhabited the corridors in Mexican state capitols?

strativarius
Reply to  bigoilbob
February 17, 2026 6:40 am

my old, repeated, whinings”


Never fail to amuse, Bob.

Reply to  ricksanchez769
February 17, 2026 10:09 am

That double digit IQ is showing.

Scarecrow Repair
February 17, 2026 5:16 am

Please don’t write like this:

Firstly, natural gas production in January 2026 was about 20 Bcf/d higher than it was in February 2021.

20 Bcf/d is meaningless. Is that double, 1%? I don’t know because you didn’t report what is normal.

Scarecrow Repair
Reply to  David Middleton
February 17, 2026 6:04 am

Except it’s elsewhere. The writer’s job is to collect information in one place, not scatter it. If I look at the graph, I don’t need the incomplete sentence. The sentence is useless.

Scarecrow Repair
Reply to  David Middleton
February 17, 2026 11:13 am

It’s still not in the same place. The sentence is meaningless by itself, therefore useless and a waste at best. The point of writing is to inform and clarify, not waste the readers’ time.

Gregory Woods
February 17, 2026 5:18 am

Story Tip:

Earth’s Disastrous 10th Tipping Point Has Been Identified

  • Crossing Planetary Boundaries (PB)—a concept that defines nine potential ecological “tipping points”—could spell doom for ecosystems and humanity’s future on the planet.
  • Of these PBs, humans have already crossed six of the nine thresholds.
  • Now, scientists are arguing that there’s potentially a tenth boundary that’s gone unrecognized, which concerns worldwide aquatic deoxygenation in lakes, reservoirs, oceans, and other bodies of water.
Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Gregory Woods
February 17, 2026 6:03 am

Uh-oh. We better hope that we don’t cross that 10th tipping point. The Law of Tipping Points states that once you cross that 10th tipping point, all other tipping points fall like dominoes, resulting in a Tipping Point Catastrophe.

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 17, 2026 7:43 am

Have we crossed the point where all tipping is mandatory?

abolition man
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
February 17, 2026 12:15 pm

If you think the 10th tipping point is bad, just wait until they turn it up to 11!

MarkW
Reply to  Gregory Woods
February 17, 2026 6:07 am

We have already crossed 6 tipping points, and absolutely nothing has happened.

Reply to  MarkW
February 17, 2026 11:15 am

That is because imaginary, arbitrary values really don’t have any meaning.

Any more than vague model based prophecies do.

JonasM
Reply to  Gregory Woods
February 17, 2026 12:20 pm

Why downvote a story tip???

abolition man
February 17, 2026 5:26 am

Hey, David! Long time, no read! I hope all is well in DFW; here adjacent to the Datil Mogollon FV we’re still trying to digest the post-Peak Oil World. Oh, wait, never mind!
How much longer do you think it’s gonna take for Texans to impress on their politicos the uselessness of Unreliables; tits on a boar hog and all that!?

abolition man
Reply to  David Middleton
February 17, 2026 12:19 pm

But how much is it going to cost to replace them in ten or 15 years? Or the next major hail event? You sound like a man sitting in the women’s wear department, waiting on the wife!

Tom Johnson
February 17, 2026 5:30 am

our area in Texas had no issues with Fern but were not so lucky with Uri. Parts of our subdivision had major issues with Uri – frozen municipal water pipes and rolling blackouts for 10 days. Our side of the sub had power the whole time. We attributed that (without any data) to living just downstream of a small hydro plant. That was good luck, because my backup plans totally failed. These plans included a 6.5 KW gasoline generator and a 4WD SUV for travelling to replenish gasoline. That’s what failed. We had easy ability to traverse the ice rutted roads, but the gasoline tank trucks didn’t. All the gas stations were out of gasoline after the first couple of days of Uri. We did fine because we had power on our side of the sub the whole time, without even any flashing lights on the digital clocks. We had to keep our well water trickling with 70-degree F ground water and to thaw out ice blocks on the heat pump a couple of times. I’ve been buying gasoline tanks and testing the generator regularly since then.

February 17, 2026 6:39 am

The arctic air excursion that took place in February, 2021, was much worse than the one that just occurred in February, 2024.

i wonder how the grid would fare with another February, 2021, arctic shot of air?

Who is paying the subsidies for these new Texas solar facilities?

strativarius
Reply to  David Middleton
February 17, 2026 6:56 am

The answer is simple: more beans.

abolition man
Reply to  strativarius
February 17, 2026 7:33 am

Don’t you dare put beans in our chili!

abolition man
Reply to  David Middleton
February 17, 2026 12:25 pm

I always make mine now with lots of chipotle peppers, or my own smoked jalapeños. I always smoke them while I’ve got a brisket going for a little extra flavor. Sometimes some of the brisket goes in, too!

Reply to  Tom Abbott
February 17, 2026 1:27 pm

2026 not 2024.

February 17, 2026 1:47 pm

This graphic is informative, showing ERCOT data for the last week of Jan 2026.
As usual, when the storm began, solar and wind both collapsed, with only natural gas increasing output to cover the grid needs. Nuclear of course doesn’t care. It show puts out baseload.
Solar and wind are at best fair weather friends and makes the grid difficult to manage and raise costs.

Untitled1
Reply to  joel
February 17, 2026 2:06 pm

PARASITIC.. Wind and solar suck the life out of dispatchable supplies.

When wind and solar die, it leaves the grid teetering on the edge.

If the host dispatchables die.. you are left with NOTHING.

abolition man
Reply to  joel
February 17, 2026 5:08 pm

“Solar and wind are at best fair weather friends…”
But what about all the money they put in the pockets of the Green millionaires and billionaires like Tom Steyer, Michael Bloomberg, and Bill Gates! And don’t forget about giving the ChiComs lots of leverage to continue using slave labor, and exploiting people around the world with their BRI!

Edward Katz
February 17, 2026 2:08 pm

This is another reminder that renewables, particularly wind and solar, are fair weather fuels; i.e. when conditions are moderate and no pressure is put on the grid, they can be somewhat reliable. Yet as soon as those conditions deteriorate, it’s a virtual guarantee that fossil fuels of one type or another will be called upon to come to the rescue.