Landfalling Hurricane Trends

By Paul Homewood

As I pointed out in my review of hurricanes last week, comprehensive observation and measurement on hurricanes globally really only became possible in the 1980s, with the help of satellites and robust hurricane hunter aircraft.

But reliable longer term data is available for landfalling hurricanes, notably, of course, in the US.

For the last few years Roger Pielke Jr has been keeping track of Atlantic and North Pacific landfalling hurricanes. His data goes back to 1950.

He has now updated his graphs to include last year:

https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/global-tropical-cyclone-landfalls

As with US storms, there is no evidence of any long term trends, either in the frequency of hurricanes or the number of major, Cat3+ storms.

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January 17, 2026 6:07 am

So extreme weather is, shall we say, unpredictable? Mostly like all weather, but of course, climate is different. But as we all know, the present is correct, the past is always changing.

Tom Abbott

January 17, 2026 6:19 am

Yes, weather history debunks Climate Alarmist claims about a connection between the weather and CO2.

There is no unprecedented weather, or warmth today. Weather was just as severe in the past as it is today, and it is no warmer today than it has been in the recent past. Nothing to see here!

strativarius

January 17, 2026 6:23 am

By now it should be quite clear that the only major increase in anything has been the shrill, nay, hysterical alarmism in the media and in education. 2025 I’m sure was a bitter disappointment to the faithful having predicted…

NOAA predicts above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season
Above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage – NOAA

NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models…

But it didn’t happen. But there was one saving grace for the doom addicted; Melissa. And they jumped on it.

Climate crisis means super-strength Hurricane Melissa is ‘dangerous new reality’

Winds of Melissa’s strength are now five times more frequent due to the climate crisis, research says

Climate change increased Melissa’s maximum wind speeds by 7% and extreme rainfall by 16%, the team at World Weather Attribution, a consortium of 20 researchers from the US, UK, Sweden, Dominican Republic, Netherlands, Jamaica and Cuba, found.
…
Global heating has made the atmospheric and marine conditions behind such extreme events six times more likely. – The 6th Form Common Room

They aren’t interested in data, only what their priestly digital tea-leaf reading reveals.

This, in my opinion, is a must see:

Jeff Alberts

Reply to strativarius

January 17, 2026 7:21 am

“Climate change increased Melissa’s maximum wind speeds by 7% and extreme rainfall by 16%”

I’ll bet those percentages are well within the error bars. In other words, BS.

strativarius

Reply to Jeff Alberts

January 17, 2026 7:36 am

digital tea-leaf readings

Are like Horoscopes

Jan 17, 2026 – You may be a specialist at climate data and counterintuitive ideas, using your priestly skills in divining the true meaning of model runs. If this is true, other climate scientists have probably already told you that independent thinking is fine, but there is a moment when you have to put all that nonsense aside and remember that there really is a climate crisis.

The position of the planets today invites you to think about this.

strativarius

Reply to strativarius

January 17, 2026 7:42 am

-1

Thanks for the laugh.

Scissor

January 17, 2026 7:15 am

The “unnamed 1986 hurricane” associated with the picture above the article was actually called the Cedar Keys hurricane.

This link provides some other photos/maps related to this event.

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