By P Gosselin
By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (in latest newsletter)
Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, image: X.
Cooling trend continues
The global temperature did not change in October compared to August. The cooling trend remains intact. The American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) foresees a cool LA NINA developing in the Pacific this winter, which will lead to a further decline in global temperatures as well.
Belém – All that fuss for nothing
The 30th World Climate Conference in Belém is not yet over, but it is already becoming apparent that the event, announced as the “Conference of Truth,” will go down in the history of climate conferences as a turning point.
No head of state from the four largest CO2-emitting nations—China (33%), the USA (12%), India (8%), and Russia (5%)—is showing up in Belém.
Even before the conference, the New York Times headlined: “The whole world is fed up with climate policy.” And the fact that Bill Gates, one of the biggest supporters and sponsors of climate policy, explicitly warned against excessive, shortsighted climate policy just 14 days before the conference, and put prosperity back in focus — a major blow.
Glenn Beck, a prominent American television host, explains the change of heart by Bill Gates: “It’s not about science, it’s about Trump.” Expressed differently: it’s not about conviction; it’s about damage control for his own company, which is planning multibillion-dollar investments in data centers in the USA and globally. And given the situation, these will have to rely on electricity from new gas-fired power plants in the short term, as the reactivation of old nuclear power plants will not suffice, and the construction of new nuclear power plants will still take several years in the USA.
Only 1/3 of the states actually submit a plan
For the Climate Conference in Belém, states had to report on their future plans for the use of coal, oil, and gas. The fact that only one-third even submitted a statement already hints at the dissolving importance of the climate issue in most nations around the world. But the reports that were submitted are revealing. Most states reported continuously increasing use of coal, oil, and gas. The reports show an increase in global coal usage by 30%, oil by 25%, and gas by 40% by 2030 compared to 2015. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) hoped to reduce global CO2 emissions by 45% by 2030 compared to 2015; now they are continuing to rise.
Only Europe onboard
Only Europe remains unshakably committed to the goal of achieving Net Zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Germany, the industrial heart of Europe, is even more ambitious and, according to Axel Bojanowski, is “the ‘leader’ among industrialized countries: It aims to be climate-neutral by 2045 – a self-destructive plan: Germany’s reduction will inevitably be compensated by rising emissions in other EU countries. This is because the European Emissions Trading System ensures that emission allowances not used in Germany are consumed in other EU countries.
It is becoming increasingly clear what the Wall Street Journal meant when it called Germany’s energy policy the ‘dumbest in the world.’
A few days before the conference, the European states agreed on a common goal, namely to achieve a 90% CO2 reduction by 2040 compared to 1990. 5% of the self-commitment could come from emission reductions abroad, which, of course, must also be expensively paid for. The German Minister for the Environment celebrated this agreement as “good news for the German economy, as everyone would now have the same competitive conditions.”
This statement reveals how little the German federal government and its ministers understand about the global economy. As if German industry only exports goods to European countries. German goods, however, compete in a global market that does not have the burdens of CO2 taxes and high energy prices on German products and can therefore always offer them more cheaply. 50% of exports go to countries outside the EU.
Chancellor Merz and his Environment Minister Schneider are blatantly downplaying the German situation. Germany has set self-imposed shackles with the Climate Protection Act that will become highly painful in the coming years.
German climate policy: “script for an economic catastrophe”
Welt journalist Axel Bojanowski: “The German Climate Protection Act, cemented by the Federal Constitutional Court, seems to be a script for an economic catastrophe. It only allows Germany a remaining budget of 6.7 gigatonnes of CO2, which is likely to be used up by the early 2030s. According to the law, penalties, shutdowns, and restrictions on freedom are then threatened to meet the climate goals.”
6.7 gigatonnes was the remaining permissible budget after the ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court from 2020 onwards. As of today, only 3.6 gigatonnes of this remain. The buffer is reduced by about 0.5 gigatonnes each year. By 2032 at the latest, the remaining budget will be exhausted, and Germany will have reached the end of the line set by the Federal Constitutional Court. This will happen in the next legislative period, not just in 2040.
Chancellor Merz whitewashes
And in his 5-minute speech in Belém before a half-empty hall, Chancellor Merz spreads negligent whitewashing: “The economy is not the problem. Our economy is the key to protecting our climate even better.” Does the Chancellor not know the perilous state our industry is in?
Scandal surrounds tropical forest Ffund (TFF)
Probably the only outcome of the Belém conference will be the establishment of an investment fund, proposed by Brazilian President Lula, to finance the protection of tropical forests.
The fund works as follows: Donor countries pay $25 billion into the fund. Private investors (investment funds) are supposed to pay in $100 billion. The donor countries receive a return of about 4.0-4.8%, which corresponds to the return on their government bonds, as they generally have to raise the money through government debt. The return for private investors is 5.8% to 7.2%. The fund’s money is invested in emerging market government bonds, which yield comparatively high interest due to the higher risk (Brazilian government bonds are currently at 12.25%). Private investors are served first, followed by the donor countries. If anything remains after the distribution of profits to private investors and donor countries, the amount is paid out to 74 countries with tropical forests. It is hoped that this way, $3-4 billion will be distributed annually to the tropical forest countries.
The catch is this: To entice investors, private investors are given preference in the payment sequence: first the private ones, then the donor states. Furthermore, the donor countries must insure the fund against default. A default by an emerging market could quickly lead to the fund’s insolvency. In that case, the taxpayers of the donor countries would be held liable and, in an extreme scenario, lose their capital.
Disadvantageous for the German taxpayer
In preparation for Belém, there was fundamental disagreement over Germany’s participation in the fund between the Ministry of Finance and the Chancellor’s Office. The Chancellor’s Office clearly advocated for participation and a contribution of at least $1 billion. It was assisted by the Ministry for the Environment under Minister Schneider and the Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development under Minister Alabali-Radovan. The Ministry of Finance, under Lars Klingbeil, strongly objected, viewing the fund as a billion-dollar risk and doubting the viability of the fund’s structure.
And indeed, the model is structurally disadvantageous for the German taxpayer. One could also say: We are subsidizing the returns of private investors with public money and providing the default guarantee for BlackRock and Co. That is why the Federal Ministry of Finance is persistently blocking Germany’s participation in the fund. It can be unequivocally stated that the Federal Ministry of Finance has thus far bravely defended the interests of the German taxpayer against the interests of BlackRock and Co.
This is the background to Chancellor Merz being unable to name a figure (“a noteworthy amount”) in Belém. The billion € or $ is now supposed to be found in the budget reconciliation for the 2026 federal budget, which is taking place this week, so that the federal budget can be adopted on November 28. It is to be expected that the SPD will concede. But it could be a Pyrrhic victory for Chancellor Merz, who would then visibly be prioritizing the interests of international financial investors, especially if the fund were to run into difficulties.
Whether the fund will ultimately materialize is still questionable, as it only comes into effect if the donor states commit to $10 billion. So far (excluding Germany), $5.6 billion has been raised.
The USA and the UK have already declined.
If the fund comes into being, the investment companies will profit first, with high returns secured by states, and then the emerging markets, which can sell their high-risk government bonds. Whether the tropical forest will benefit in this confusing financial jungle is not yet certain. The biggest risk remains with the donor countries, who are putting their taxpayers’ money at risk with the catchy story of saving the rainforest.”
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Realisation emerges…EVENTUALLY
It ought to some day cease to amaze me what lengths these clowns go to to simulate, poorly, real free markets, piling ineptitude on top of corruption. I wonder how many of Lula’s friends are going to profit from all this nonsense. The poor taxpayers sure won’t. That’s the second place wonder, that voters are still voting in these clowns.
“that voters are still voting in these clowns.”
I don’t think those voters would vote for those clowns if they were told the truth about those clowns.
Unfortunately, the Propaganda News Media distorts the truth about those clowns and make them appear to be fine candidates for election to office.
The problem is the voters don’t get the truth and end up believing something that isn’t true, and then base their decisions on that.
Propaganda News Media are a great danger to the freedoms of all of us, including the freedoms of the people they fool into voting for the wrong people.
Europe has made enormous investments in wind/solar/battery infrastructure, which is not making any money, or losing money, or retrenching.
Europe was planning to screw the US with high energy prices per kWh by using European designed, built, erected, owned and operated wind, solar and battery systems to maintain its competitive trade advantage for decades more.
Trump prevented that plan and imposed tariffs to offset Europe’s numerous, intricate, non-tariff barriers.
“or losing money, or retrenching.”
For clarity: “or is losing money, or is retrenching” lol
right, you are
Netzero macht frei.
I recall an old saying, “Reality is a bitch.”
Just when you think government can’t get any worse here comes more stupid government. What a bunch of knuckleheads!
Was it Bellman, or The Last Nail in the Head who said the IPCC say there has been no natural variation, so what on Earth is causing the down-turn in temperatures? It should be going UP!! 🙁
Temperature will continue down trend until 2029. The solar activity is declining and the Z-axis excursion hits a minimum in 2029 but still north of Earth’s elliptic.
Temperature will then climb to mid 2030s with rising solar activity and new northern maximum excursion of the orbit mid 2030s similar to 2023. Then a reasonably rapid decline to a southern minimum in 2040 similar to the minimum of 1980.
If climate models used solar intensity at latitudes for seasons, they would be able to show natural variation but they don’t so are useless for showing natural variation.
It’s been cooling for almost two years now.
Maybe CO2 has suddenly stopped going into the atmosphere?
The latest peak was due to a volcanic explosion and a medium-strength El Niño almost coinciding in their effects.
The cows have stopped farting, because they don’t want corks in their butts.
Our man in Belem is leading by example- flying in and out twice.
24,000 miles.
Yeah, this is the complete idiot who says “homegrown energy independence and security,” when the UK produces not one tonne of the metals and minerals required for the construction of ALL renewable equipment, batteries, and for a 3-fold extension of the grid – NOT 1 TONNE.
He idiotically fails to realise that we totally relinquish energy independence and security to the Chinese by continuing with this renewable nonsense – the Chinese totally control the supply of the refined global production of those very metals and minerals.
What a complete and utter idiot.
Where mad Ed is concerned I have run out of negative superlatives.
Latest figures from the ONS show GDP grew by just 0.1% in July to September, slower than economists’ expected 0.2%.
Unemployment shoots up
Here comes that budget … Deindustrialising the economy part II.
“What a complete and utter idiot.”
Ed Miliband is not a complete idiot.
Some parts are still missing … but he’s working on that.
Such as his brain
You win!
He has a running sore and forgot his diaper. He will be gone soon.
IS a running sore.
This is farcical thinking. It will not be used up. Germany is in economic decline and full de-industrialisation mode. They can just buy stuff from China like everyone else.
The one advantage of the decline is that it will slow immigration. Africa will be considerably more attractive than Germany within a decade.
So what happens when Germany has used up it’s carbon budget? Do they have to switch everything off?
With no economy they won’t be able to afford to buy anything from abroad.
Good luck to Germany, you’ll need it.
No – Germans will start killing their politicians , like everywhere in Europe.
Then the assassination attempts that as of now only targeted populist leaders Gladio 3.0 style, will be more grassroot style,have a logical motivation and target the WEF – Blackrock assets.
Until then it’ll be interesting to see how they’ll switch towards a war economy (Russia) and increase weapon production while everything else is in decline.
First, Germany destroys itself with Naziism. Now it is in the process of shooting itself in the foot with these Net Zero and green energy religions.
If there something about Germans that causes them to do things like this to themselves twice in a century? Is it something in their culture or is it the way they think or are raised? Do they (And the British?) look at the alarmist and other scientists as authority figures that command the same respect as royalty on a continent with a history of royalty?
Yes, we had climate alarmism take hold here in the U.S. as well. But, as noted elsewhere, it appears to be dying out here as opposed to Europe where is seems to persist. Maybe its just the leadership we all put in office during elections.
Just a lot of speculation on my part for whatever it is worth.
“Maybe its just the leadership we all put in office during elections.”
It is definitely the leadership we elect.
The United States would be going down the same “Road to Ruin” as the Germans and the UK, if a Democrat had been elected president of the U.S.
The Natives are restless in Europe. Maybe, if there are enough of them, they can change directions, away from the current ruinous energy policy.
Otherwise, their economies will crash and burn, and then the voters will change direction. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that, and they wake up to reality before that happens.
“First, Germany destroys itself with Naziism. Now it is in the process of shooting itself in the foot with these Net Zero and green energy religions.”
NetZism
At some point, someone will notice that world levels of atmospheric CO2 have not stopped rising.
After that, they will also notice that the rate of rise continues to accelerate as well.
It’s hard to point to your policy achievements when there aren’t any.
That isn’t quite true. China remains unshakably committed to the goal of everyone else achieving Net Zero by 2050.
Yes, to China, Net Zero for everyone else is a huge success!
From the article: “It is becoming increasingly clear what the Wall Street Journal meant when it called Germany’s energy policy the ‘dumbest in the world.’”
Truer words were never spoken. No country in the world has a dumber energy policy than Germany.
The UK’s energy policy is equally dumb, and they are right behind Germany in the race to destroy their economies with insane energy policies.
What is it? Are European politicians particularly gullible to climate change propaganda?
“German Energy Professor: COP 30 Is A Failure…”Only Europe Remains Committed””
Germany has it figured out. Copilot AI tells us, “Approximately 90% of Porsche vehicles are sold outside of Germany.”
The net zero thing is pointless. There is no real evidence that CO2 has any effect on our global glimate system. The AGW hypothesis has been falsified by science. Spending money to fight climate change is just a big waste of funds.
Funny. There is no “global climate system.”
There may be a global energy system that includes the dozens of micro climates with coupled land, sea, and air energy transport systems.
How can the Sahara desert be the same climate as the rain forests the same climate as Antarctica?
We must embrace scientific definitions and stop using common language, context driven, vocabulary.
Likewise the definition of climate is statistics. The definition of climate change (at whatever level) is statistics. It is extreme hubris to say that humans can control weather, globally or locally.
Do humans affect the plane?. Yes. Are there problems? Yes.
But must we destroy civilization to save the planet? Not only no, but hell no.
Correction: (typo) Do Humans affect the planet?
Thanks for that, but remember… we do not appreciate Common Sense.
We are not programmed to respond in that area…
EU remains committed to suicide.
Without the collection plate they’ve given up fighting climate change and are now busy fighting all their so called disinformation and misinformation in order to save their butts-
‘COP of truth’: Countries commit to tackling climate disinformation at UN climate summit
They’ve run out of taxes and with red ink everywhere printing more money goes straight into inflation post Covid. To make things worse they’ve hit the wall with fickles penetration with the exponential cost of moving it around over space and time. You pluck the early low hanging fruit with solar and wind in the best areas close to existing infrastructure and it’s all uphill from there.
Germany is wholehog solar panel, wind mills,and Russian LNG. The country is flooded with illegal aliens. and China is their biggest customer. The government of Germany has committed to doubling his defense budget. It’s only a matter of time before Germany. Economy has a freefall.
I am not sure China is a customer. Supplier, perhaps?
and Calif – $8-$9 gas may be the end of Newsome
The cartels will figure out how smuggle into CA Mexican gas that they steal by hijacking tanker trucks.
Maybe they could put pipes into all those drug tunnels they keep digging.
Reminds me of a gas war movie. Can’t recall the title.
Do folks still smoke pipes for drugs?
DOJ may soon be ‘investigating’ Neuscom.
As I like to say, it’s a thin line between being committed, and ought to be committed.
More socialist “finance” ministers who lack an even basic understanding of finance.
“emerging market government bonds, which yield comparatively high interest due to the higher risk”
When aggregated together, government, private and emerging markets all return pretty much the same over all rate of return.
First world government bonds return low rates, but very few of them ever fail to pay out.
Private funds pay a higher rate of return, but a higher percentage of them go belly up.
Emerging market government bonds pay even more, but a still higher percentage of them will go bankrupt before paying out.
This fund seems to be predicated on the belief that all three types of funds will be equally safe.
The reality is that it’s a poorly disguised scheme to transfer first world government and private investor funds to 3rd world kleptocracies with probably a non-trivial amount being fed back to certain first world finance ministers under the table.
The fact that the private investors are also being indemnified against loss is a further indicator that payoffs are being made.
“to arrange the transfer of more funds to Blackrock et al.”
VW reluctantly closed its plant in the forced labor part of western China. But Germany and the EU are still committed to the forced labor supply chain from there. They have experience with that from the 1930s and 40s, in addition to colonialism.
It is time to abandon the climate change narrative and its consequence: the energy transition.
FIFTY (50) years of effort to convince the world of a non-happening so that several hundred $trillion can be wasted on “green” energy is coming to its natural end – bankruptcy.
Lysenkoism failed and anthropogenic climate change has failed.
Nature responds to truth, not fiction.
“Germany….. is “the ‘leader’ among industrialized countries.” Not for long though. Soon Germany won’t be ‘industrialized’.
Climate Protection Act that will become highly painful in the coming years. – ugh – the WSJ reports that electricity in Germany is now considered to be a luxury and not affordable by many Germans who have resorted to felling timber for heat and cooking – now that’s green progress? seems that the coming years have arrived
Is Europe really all that committed?
King of Sweden questions the cost of CO2 net zero:
https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/king-of-sweden-at-cop30-how-much-are-we-supposed-to-pay/
This comment from professor Verenholt would not be the first time that a German bureaucrat pretended to speek for the whole of Europe.
From the above article:
“Only Europe remains unshakably committed to the goal of achieving Net Zero CO2 emissions by 2050.”
Today, the European Union emits a total of a little more than 6% of the world’s annual CO2 emissions (see https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions ).
So, keep the faith and virtue signaling EU, you are making a difference, albeit insignificant since the atmosphere is shared with all nations around the world. I can confidently state that Net Zero will NEVER be achieved globally.
World-wide Net Zero is a Pipe Dream.
Too many politicians on the ‘pipe’, it seems.
I have a hard time believing that Germany is committing economic suicide faster than Canada but I guess it’s possible. Just like Germany, over half the population is too stupid to see what is coming.
Take it from the German Treasury.
These EUpeons need to be slapped silly to get them to stop strangling their citizens with suicidal beliefs. Get out of the EU. Hang all of your EU collaborators, and freshly think about what is good for YOU!.