From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
h/t Ian Magness/Philip Bratby
The Earth could be doomed to breach the symbolic 1.5C warming limit in as little as three years at current levels of carbon dioxide emissions.
That’s the stark warning from more than 60 of the world’s leading climate scientists in the most up-to-date assessment of the state of global warming.
Nearly 200 countries agreed to try to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C above levels of the late 1800s in a landmark agreement in 2015, with the aim of avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate change.
But countries have continued to burn record amounts of coal, oil and gas and chop down carbon-rich forests – leaving that international goal in peril.
“Things are all moving in the wrong direction,” said lead author Prof Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds.
“We’re seeing some unprecedented changes and we’re also seeing the heating of the Earth and sea-level rise accelerating as well.”
These changes “have been predicted for some time and we can directly place them back to the very high level of emissions”, he added.
At the beginning of 2020, scientists estimated that humanity could only emit 500 billion more tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) – the most important planet-warming gas – for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C.
But by the start of 2025 this so-called “carbon budget” had shrunk to 130 billion tonnes, according to the new study.
That reduction is largely due to continued record emissions of CO2 and other planet-warming greenhouse gases like methane, but also improvements in the scientific estimates.
If global CO2 emissions stay at their current highs of about 40 billion tonnes a year, 130 billion tonnes gives the world roughly three years until that carbon budget is exhausted.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4l927dj5zo
The BBC are still under the illusion that the Paris Agreement in 2015 was ever going to make the slightest bit of difference to anything.
It was obvious at the time that global emissions would carry on rising, because China, India and all of the other developing were not put under any obligations to do so.
And if GHG emissions had been cut to near zero, as these climate scientists demand, we would already be back in the dark ages.
These so-called scientists cannot even get their facts right. According to the BBC, they claim that “The rate of global sea-level rise has doubled since the 1990s, raising the risks of flooding for millions of people living in coastal areas worldwide.”
This is an outright lie, as there has been little change in trends since the late 1880s:
There is not the slightest evidence that global temperatures now are any higher than many other periods in recent human history, or that the climate is any worse than in pre-industrial, Little Ice Age times.
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“The rate of global sea-level rise has doubled since the 1990s…”
This is an outright lie
______________________________________________________
It’s easy to pick out the lies that the Legacy Media* tells us about “The Climate Crisis” What’s difficult is finding truthful media reporting that doesn’t exaggerate color cherry pick or lie in one form or another.
_______________________________________________________
*The so-called main stream media is trying to rebrand itself as
“The Legacy Press” and is in its 45th year of slanted reporting about
the effects of CO2.
Didn’t Bill McGibben also state that once the atmospheric concentration of CO2 passed 350 ppm we were doomed? We’re at 430 ppm. Did i miss something? The world is safer, greener, wealthier, healthier and warmer. All good from my perspective.
When the Greta phenomenon exploded onto the media…
“Tagged in Rentzhog’s “lonely girl” tweet were five twitter accounts: Greta Thunberg, Zero Hour (youth movement), Jamie Margolin (the teenage founder of Zero Hour), Al Gore’s Climate Reality Project, and the People’s Climate Strike twitter account (in the identical font and aesthetics as 350.org).
https://theartofannihilation.com/the-manufacturing-of-greta-thunberg-for-consent-the-political-economy-of-the-non-profit-industrial-complex/
Probably, one of the most effective PR campaigns I can think of.
http://www.wrongkindofgreen.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/We-Dont-Have-Time-Greta-Thunberg-August-20-2018.png
Yes.
One should always be aware that messages creating a sense of urgency and pressure to “act now” are common characteristics of scams.
That’s why he shut down 350.org and formed 450.org.
Just kidding, he kept 350.org and then launched “Third Act” to go after the geriatric and estate donations, in addition to grants from the likes of USAID.
Every time some fathead elite yaps about how we peasants must leave science to the scientists and don’t know enough to matter, I point to all the lies they’ve told and ask why they need to resort to lies if the truth is on their side?
*crickets*
This is the reason juries exist, to judge the facts, to watch and hear the conflicting testimony, and decide who is more credible. Considering how low climate activism ranks in most polls, I’d say the public’s bullshit detectors are working fine.
So, after three cracks at 10 years to save the planet/climate, each time they’ve been, shall we say, a little previous. Perhaps that explains the allure of 2100 or later for modelling purposes. There’s always a touch of arrogance and hubris about these pronouncements
“UNITED NATIONS (AP) _ A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.
Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ″eco- refugees,′ ′ threatening political chaos, said Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, or UNEP.
He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control. “
In his speech to the British Institute for Biology in 1971, Paul Ehrlich reckoned:
“By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people …”
The BBC has gone so far down its climate rabbit hole that there is no coming back to rational reasoned and argued (ie unsettled) science. They’re stuck with the one true BBC view fits all.
For example, when you haven’t built a water reservoir in 40 years and the population has gone up by several millions what do you say? Build more reservoirs? No, you advocate rationing.
England needs more hosepipe bans and smart water meters – watchdog
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj939kpnvx8o
The BBC’s approach is redolent of that old joke about social workers: How many social workers does it take to change a light bulb?
They don’t actually change the bulb, they have a case conference on coping with darkness.
QED
How many council workers does it take to change a light bulb?
7.
One to climb the steps and hold the broken bulb, and 6 to lift the steps and turn them round.
And yes I know that council worker is an oxymoron.
A working council is also an oxymoron.
In my youth that was called ‘A Polish Joke’.
With how many Polls a Council takes, today it’s a POLL-ISH joke
You forgot the one to receive and dispose of the broken bulb, and the one to carry and provide the new bulb. Disposal and provision, different specialties!
The “Provision” portion would likely need to go back to committee to discern funding sources for new bulbs since USAID is being dismantled
Also forgotten are the “hundreds of thousands or well paying green union jobs”” needed to construct the “renewable” energy system needed to manufacture the bulb.
Yep. The last reservoir built in the UK was Carsington Water in Derbyshire.. It opened in 1991. UK population has risen 11m since then.
If Millibrain is around for another 3 years, the UK will almost certainly be destroyed. !
Paul Ehrlich will say he was right all along.
Milliband is a trainwreck.
Starmer needs to get rid of him. Trump seems to like Starmer.
And can anyone explain why 1.5 deg C warming than the end of the Little Ice Age is catastrophic? As opposed to, say 1.499 deg C warming? So, like we’re all rolling along, just as humans have for millions of years, and then BOOM, we all die once we are 1.5% C warmer than at an arbitrary date picked out because it was at the bottom of the temperature curve of the latest see-saw in cyclic cooling-warming?
Somehow the logic of their whining escapes that of any thinking person.
Given that their original figure was 2C and was later brought down to 1.5C, I can only suggest they wanted to “speed things up”. They have found that they cannot always rely on the weather.
Just a few question to consider:
Both ranges FAR exceed “1.5 degree over 100 years” and nobody/nothing is dropping dead on a daily/annual basis over those temperature swings …
Considering the Earth as a whole (which the silly GAT does) day and night occur simultaneously, as do Summer heat and Winter cold. The arithmetic average of worldwide thermometer readings (GAT) is meaningless.
An “average temp” seems useful to me. Knowing the average surface temp of Venus versus Mars provides enlightenment.
Since the Nadir of the LIA (1770) temps have risen well over 2°C. 1.5°C since 1850 has also been breached. Heck, according to the UAH record it was 1.7°C warmer in April 2024 than it was in Sept 1984
Yeah, and no Climate Crisis tipping point was hit in April 2024, and since that time the temperatures have cooled by about 0.5C.
Exactly!
“we’re also seeing the heating of the Earth”
There is no evidence of “heating” by anything other than El Nino events (unrelated to humans), urban warming, bad surface sites, and data mal-adjustment.
Since the 2023 El Nino peak in mid 2024, the planet has been cooling, and will continue to do so until the next major El Nino.
There is a “Nice Day or Two” amber alert from the Met Office…
UK weather: Amber heat health alert issued across England as hottest day of the year recorded
a peak of 32.2C (89.9F) at Kew Gardens and Heathrow Airport in west London.
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-amber-heat-health-alert-issued-across-england-as-hottest-day-of-the-year-recorded-13385733
Even worse, they issue them for a… thunderstorm:
“Amber thunderstorm warning issued for southeast England and East Anglia”
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/amber-thunderstorm-warning
Those that remember 1976 and 1987 will be laughing their heads off.
In California we call 89°F “Short Sleeve Weather”
it will probably hit 82F or warmer here in Oklahoma today, and temperatures are forecast to be even warmer still as we head into July.
We have had a ton of rain in Oklahoma over the last few months, so the high temperatures are accompanied by very high humidity levels.
We’ll probably dry out quickly, though. That’s the normal progression as we go into the very hot/dry months of July and August. So, we appreciate a lot of early rain like we got this year.
This screed reminded me of what then prince Charles said in 2009, that we had “Just 96 months to save world.”
Please help me with the math. Is it more or less than 96 months since July of 2009?
Just 96 months to save world, says Prince Charles | The Independent | The Independent
12*16…. = 192 months.
Ayup 2015 came and went and everyone is still safe (reasonably safe anyway)
As long as the government keeps trying to help us, nobody is safe.
More proof you can pack 10 pounds of bovine fertilizer in a five-pound bag!
— and do it in less time — which proves Clima-Change™ increasingly causes shorter deadlines.
The Irish Times, Thu Jun 19 2025: “Only two years left to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees target, scientists warn“
Yeah the last .6 C El Niño boost will be el Gonyo by then….
OT, but funny:
Fury at Ed Miliband after he hands climate zealots huge victory over Rosebank oil field
The climate secretary previously condemned the plans as ‘climate vandalism’ as he refused to fight the government’s case.
Ed Miliband has been slammed over his role in the blow to economic growth, after he refused to put up any Government defence of the oil field development in court. In 2023, the Climate Secretary condemned the Rosebank development as a “colossal waste of taxpayer money and climate vandalism”.
He argued: “The evidence is clear: Rosebank will do nothing to cut bills, as the government admit, is no solution to our energy security, and would drive a coach and horses through our climate commitments.”
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/2007534/judges-thwart-plans-drill-rosebank
Once upon a time – when there were a few men and women of principle – a change would prompt a resignation… but those days are now but a memory. Miliband is, most suspect, a true believer. But how could he remain in post if overruled on the most fundamental of his beliefs?
Two of the North Sea’s most controversial drilling projects are poised to go ahead as Ed Miliband rewrites the rules on carbon emissions…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/06/19/ed-miliband-open-door-to-north-sea-drilling/
Answers… on a postcard.
Looking at the UAH Records between Sept 1984 (anomaly of -0.67°C) and April 2024 (anomaly +1.05°C) the anomaly rose 1.72°C.
According to the UAH chart from May 2024
Interestingly if you compare the May 2024 chart with the Oct 2024 chart there’s been a downward adjustment to the April 2024 peak from +1.05 down to +0.92°C
If there is anything of less significance than the arithmetic average of worldwide thermometer readings (GAT), it must be the minuscule differences (anomalies) between two large numbers (288K+/-) resulting from such calculations.
UAH v6 was replaced by UAH v6.1 in November 2024. The current April 2024 anomaly value in V6.1 has changed again and is now +1.12C, rather than +1.05C (v6) or +0.92C (v6.1, Nov 2024 version).
This is one to note for those who constantly complain about GISS, etc altering past anomaly values whilst regarding UAH as the ‘gold standard’.
Nobody cares. It’s over.
Again, you have to be pretty dumb not to comprehend the solid scientific adjustments in UAH due to known satellite issues…
.. as opposed to the ad hoc agenda drive FAKERY of the GISS fabrication using data collected from totally unfit-for-purpose surface weather sites.
‘We’re gonna be right this time – honest!’
I asked on WUWT in relation to this BBC article what next as the 1.5C limit is reached/unavoidable……
And feverishly on the news last night Justin Rowlatt delivered as expected, words to the effect:
“But don’t despair, all is not lost, every further 0.1C we prevent now will spare us some of the worst impacts of climate change.”
Handy that for the climate super gravy train, but doesn’t sound exactly scientific.
Not only is there “not the slightest evidence…that the climate is any worse than in pre-industrial, Little Ice Age times,” there is reams of evidence that the climate IS FAR BETTER.
Unless you’re wishing for “the good old days” of starvation, disease and death.
Oh dear let me put the BBC and everyone right. The Paris Agreement said TWO DEGREES. What a mistake because the rate of global warming is so slow that it would take decades to reach TWO. Not nearly frightening enough. We So just before the failed Katowice COP the IPCC produced SR1.5 which explained the dire threats and reduced the alarm level to ONE POINT FIVE. I have read much of SR1.5 and it’s drivel with many transnational coercive pathways which will never happen, Give up coal in 12 years (from then)? Many scientists laughed it out of court but it’s stuck in the fraudulent matrix of Climate Change.
Story Tip: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jun/19/climate-misinformation-turning-crisis-into-catastrophe-ipie-report
This is a good example of a moving target, and it’s appropriate that the BBC would publicize it. Except that in three years the network will be telling us we’ve suddenly got only three years again. Meanwhile other alarmist sites will be playing other versions of the tiresome tune by telling us we have only this or that much time time before the big climate meltdown. But just as they’re consistent with their doomsday scenarios, the general public is just as consistent in ignoring them.
“… carbon dioxide (CO2) – the most important planet-warming gas …”
And there I was thinking it was water vapor. Silly me…..
That one statement negates the entire argument.
And I thought it was Hot Air from Proselytizing Climate Evangelists