By Vijay Jayaraj
In a landmark move that may well redefine the future of U.S.-India trade relations and global energy geopolitics, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance announced the initiation of a new trade deal with India. The day after his meeting with the Indian Prime Minister Modi April 21, Vance said that the two countries had “officially finalized the terms of reference for the trade negotiation.”
The deal, initiated against the backdrop of Trump’s tariff threats, could turn out to be a masterstroke of economic diplomacy. Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, which could have raised duties on Indian exports, provided India with a window to negotiate.
The energy economics of this deal, and its potential to reshape the global market for fossil fuels, is particularly interesting. In his announcement, Vance declared, “We want to sell more energy to India and also help it explore its own resources, including offshore natural gas reserves and critical mineral supplies.”
The arrangement could propel India toward its long-standing goal of energy surplus – a feat that appeared daunting – perhaps impossible – against the nation’s projections for a massive increase in demand – the fastest-growing among major economies for the next two decades.
Let’s get it straight: India has a long way to go before it even contemplates applying the brakes on consumption of hydrocarbons. Even a middle-class Indian like me residing in a major city experiences power blackouts on a regular basis – precisely why the nation has postponed net zero ambitions to a distant 2070. Even the documents for the country’s participation in the nutty United Nations Paris Agreement clearly prioritize domestic energy security over international climate diplomacy.
Posing a strategic vulnerability is India’s reliance on imported energy, which includes over 85% of its crude oil and roughly 50% of its natural gas. The government looks to more than double natural gas’s share of the energy mix to 15% by 2030. U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) suppliers have surpassed the United Arab Emirates to become India’s second-largest LNG supplier, trailing only Qatar.
A key player in this unfolding saga is GAIL, Limited, India’s state-owned natural gas company. On April 11, GAIL issued a tender to procure 1 million metric tons per annum of LNG from an existing or new U.S. LNG liquefaction project, with operations commencing by 2030. The agreement, potentially extendable by 5 to 10 years, signals India’s commitment to U.S. supplies.
GAIL had to stall a similar process in 2023 to buy a stake in a U.S. LNG plant after then-President Joe Biden banned export permits for LNG projects. It took the Trump administration’s return to the White House in 2024 to lift the ban.
Notable is the timing of the upcoming deal, which strengthens India’s position as a counterweight to China. The Quad alliance – comprising the U.S., India, Japan and Australia – gains heft as India bolsters its energy security and economic clout.
U.S. willingness to share technology and expertise, as Vance emphasized, could enhance Indian autonomy, reducing reliance on adversarial suppliers. This alignment is particularly crucial as China intensifies its trade outreach in Southeast Asia and seeks to blunt the effect of U.S. tariffs.
The Western media will decry the expansion of trading in fossil fuels as a climate catastrophe, as though that will resonate with a serious person. The U.S.-India deal wisely eschews climate moralizing and embraces a symbiotic truth: America’s shale boom and India’s hunger for energy are a perfect match.
This deal is a reaffirmation of energy sovereignty. And perhaps it marks the beginning of a global recalibration, where nations rediscover the courage to assert their right to energy abundance and economic self-determination without apologizing to the corrupt and decrepit climate cartel of Brussels, Davos and U.N. corridors.
May the new world order feature developing nations standing for their futures and rejecting the false campaign of planetary salvation.
This commentary was first published at The Washington Times on April 28, 2025.
Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO₂ Coalition, Arlington, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India.
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“India-US Deal Signals…”So what is the deal? All we see harder is nebulous “we’ll try to…” stuff. What seems to have actually been achieved is “Vance said that the two countries had “officially finalized the terms of reference for the trade negotiation.””.
Don’t worry, Nick. JD won’t be signing any kind of deal with Ozzies. Too loopy and trying to top your own country. You sail alone. Or maybe the CCP will belt road you.
Well, I look around my house, and most of what I see is “Made in China”. I just bought another ICE vehicle – made in China!
I don’t really care whether the Chinese Government is Communist, any more than I care if the US Government is Democrat or Republican. Why should I? I recently bought a product from a company which was “Proudly American since 1927”. Turned it over – “Made in China”!
Obviously, proud American companies don’t mind buying CCP controlled production. Good enough for the USA? Must be good enough for me.
I’m happy with my country, blighted by politicians and all.
And when they decide to take Taiwan, and/or shut-down US critical infrastructure via all the backdoors in their electronic products, maybe a carrier born airstrike on Pearl Harbour, things like that, will you care then?
Taiwan? Whether Taiwan is controlled by China, Japan (1895 – 1945), or subservient to the USA is none of my business.
If it’s so easy for the Chinese to shut down the USA’s critical infrastructure, maybe the USA should figure out how to stop them.
You may be confusing the Chinese with the Japanese who attacked Pearl Harbour in 1941, but who are now apparently staunchly supported by the USA.
So no, I don’t particularly care if the Chinese take back Taiwan, shut down the USA’s critical infrastructure, or waste their time attacking Pearl Harbour.
Feel free to worry on my behalf. The future is unknowable – I’m fairly sure the US didn’t expect the results it got in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and so on. Things don’t always go the way you want, unfortunately.
There are 2 things knowable about the future- death and taxes. Maybe a 3rd, that the Net Zero religious cult is doomed to failure.
Joseph, climate nutters assure me that trends predict the future.
On that basis, I should live forever, never having died in the past. Oh, rapture!
Taiwan is a chip production powerhouse. No country is even close.
Without Taiwan, the US would be in deep do do.
The chaos you see in the US is partially because a lot of people and organizations no longer get blank checks from the federal government, as they did under Yellen
The US Treasury now requires any payment request to have 1) a line item of the law that authorizes it (if no money is left, no payment is made), and 2) a routing number indicating the recipient (if the recipient appears shady, no payment is made). Many bureaucrats are no longer making “requests”
“I’m fairly sure the US didn’t expect the results it got in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and so on.”
I think South Korea likes the results, and similar results would have happened in South Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, had conservative administrations been in charge, instead of dictator-appeasing, fearful Stupid Democrats.
I think South Vietnam likes the results, too. As to what would have happened, who knows?
No, I don’t think South Vietnam likes their situation. They are treated like second-class citizens by the ruling Communist class.
Just like the US, is it? The ruling party treats their opponents like second-class (or even non-) citizens?
If the population of South Vietnam were really unhappy with North Vietnam, they could have a revolution, and I’m sure the US would support them.
The US has the mightiest military in the world, and should make mincemeat of the comparatively pathetic Vietnamese military, don’t you think? Only joking, the US couldn’t do it last time.
By the way, the US is still technically at war with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Do you suggest the US should finish them off? How hard could it be?
Might be best to let sleeping dogs lie, at least for the present.
You might not be if and when China becomes more aggressive with its neighbors and it starts a regional if not global war.
Or maybe I will. Why do you think your crystal ball is better than mine?
Only joking – all your opinions plus $5 cash will buy you a five dollar cup of coffee. You can work out the value I place on your opinions.
I’m impressed by your brilliant wit. 🙂
If you were an auto worker for an American company, you likely would care if 60% of cars are from foreign companies.
But I’m not, so I don’t.
Why should I?
“All we see harder is nebulous “we’ll try to…” stuff.”
You mean like the Paris Accords ???
TOUCHE! 😆😅🤣😂
I thought you were a climate crisis junkie Nick and any deal that isn’t net zero kills the planet?
Here you go Nick… quick intertubes search. GAIL, Indian nat. gas firm, sent out a tender. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indian-gas-firm-gail-seeks-26-stake-us-lng-2025-04-11/
That was not any agreement between Modi and Vance. It was an Indian company, ten days earlier (11 April), seeking equity in a US LNG project.
As main companies will continue to do.
Industrial and manufacturing funds are pouring into the USA.. Billions of dollars.
Yes, it was an agreement between Modi and the Vance/Trump/US agenda…. one of many.
They seem to have ‘finalized the terms of reference’, and
In his announcement, Vance declared, “We want to sell more energy to India and also help it explore its own resources, including offshore natural gas reserves and critical mineral supplies.”
So the intent of the parties is to reach a free trade agreement which will include both selling fossil fuels to India and helping India develop its own.
The way to look at this is that the US is joining China (and India) in promoting the further development and use of fossil fuels. China has already been doing this around the world with coal. The US is now joining them at least with gas, and that will include oil too.
Net Zero is dead, globally. There may be a few die-hard countries and governments (like the UK Labour Party, at least for now) who persist in attempting to convert their power grids to wind and solar, but the countries doing 80-90% of global emissions either never had any intention of doing that or have now done a U-turn. Watch the EU and UK carefully in the coming months as they digest the implications for them of the Iberian blackout. Net Zero 2030 in the UK is not going to survive that.
The problem with the climatist agenda has never really been the science of climate change. Its that climate change one way or the other has no bearing on the critical element of the agenda: its impossible to run a modern industrial economy on wind and solar. You cannot supply enough power consistently. The only way you can do the conversion is to reduce power demand by at least two thirds, and even then the cost in batteries or some other way of delivering baseload from intermittent non-spinning sources would make it unaffordable.
This is gradually dawning on politicians, and they are looking around uneasily and many are quietly making their way to the emergency exits.
For an example of the phenomenon, on a different subject, look at what is happening in the UK now on gender policies in the wake of the recent Supreme Court decision. Politicians are all busy rewriting their historical positions, except for a few hard core cases who are bent on going down with the ship.
“So the intent of the parties is to reach a free trade agreement”
Is it the US intent? Sounds like Trump doesn’t like free trade.
But my question remains – the article and headline says that India and US have made a deal, from which some things follow. I would like to know what that deal is.
I only know what is in the piece, and that seems pretty clear from the bits that I quoted. The important thing is not the details, which at this stage are going to be sketchy. Its the fact that there is a focus on increasing fossil fuel supply in India.
You may say that you will believe it when you see it. Yes, me too. But in the meantime their announcement is that there is a direction and intent, and one that is to be taken seriously. By two of the more important global players in this topic.
Its dead, Nick.
“I would like to know what that deal is.”
I agree Nick, it is of utmost importance that you know every detail of each deal as they happen. To that end, I will personally make a request to your President, Donald J.Trump, that you are to be included in all future negotiations.
You can thank me later.
I checked out Nick’s comment, and missed the part about him aksing for “every detail of each deal as they happen”.
Nick obviously speaks for himself. But thankfully, WUWT allows us to capture comment links for later. I’ll get yours, and you get mine. When this deal gets consummated and all required approvals are forthcoming, lets reconnoiter.
He wants the details so he can do what he does best. Nit pick a phrase or the location of a comma.
Trump likes a balanced free trade. And one in which America doesn’t allow other nations to produce strategically important stuff for us.
One minor problem might be that the 95% of the world which is not American might not agree. What then?
Maybe the 95% might not allow itself to be dictated to by the 5%! What do you think?
The world will always bow to the alpha nation. Those that don’t suffer as a consequence.
It is not about bowing to. Yes, the biggest customer has the most leverage. However it is about reciprocity and if I buy your products, then don’t impose unfair unbalanced fees and charges to mine.
As to the US not being dependent on other nations for certain key products, that is common sense
Funny, I thought you didn’t care who did what to whom, so long as the stuff you wanted was always available.
Many people think that way but we sophisticates have to ponder the geo politics. 🙂
Mark, maybe you could tell me what are talking about. Your comment makes no sense to me.
Well, the 5% is the biggest economy in the world, so the other 95% want to sell their products to the 5%.
If the 95% can avoid Trump tariffs by manufacturing their products in the United States, they will do so. And, they get a tax-break on top of that being taxed at 15 percent instead of the usual 25 percent U.S. tax.
All sorts of companies are currently relocating to the United States just for this reason.
Trump says he wants all essential services manufactured in the United States, and it looks like he is getting his wish.
The United States doesn’t want to be dependent on adversaries like China for essential products like medicines. So Trump is making the medicine producers move to the United States using monetary policy.
Go Trump Go!, I say.
Or to anybody else, of course. The US accounts for about 16% of world industrial production, about half that of China. However, the US borrows money from the 95%, so it can buy manufactured goods from China.
The current US debt (whatever that means) is about $37,000,000,000,000, or about $323,000 per taxpayer.
So yes, the 95% will want to sell for cash to any customers who are heavily in debt. If the 95% have any brains, they won’t offer long term credit to someone who’s obviously broke.
Having said that, the future is unknowable. Maybe the present bizarre system will continue. It’s certainly interesting to observe, and I manage to lead a quiet life.
So far, so good.
If you think US debt is unique, you have blinders on. Any nation can and should choose to be self suffcient in key areas.
Why do you disagree with reciprocal tariffs? Does the likelihood of India and the US coming to an agreement bother you. Doest the multi trillion dollar commitment to American development concern you.
Global debt and the One World Government crowd may well bring about a world depression. At least some nations will deal better with that eventuality.
Maybe you are confused. I don’t think I mentioned tariffs, and whether India and the US agree or disagree is of little interest to me. I’m not sure why you think I would be unaware that other countries than the USA have debts.
Are you sure you meant to address me?
Economics… ’nuff said.
“Trading Partners” with surpluses earn $billions of dollars each year, which they repatriate to their own countries, to live high on the hog at our expense.
They make all sorts of tariff and non-tariff rules to keep our goods out.
We allowed them to screw us for decades.
I believe that Trump is seeking fair trade rather than free trade–if another country wants to tax (tariff) our exports, the USA will tariff theirs.
His main complaint has been that the USA has not taxed exports from countries that charge high tariffs against US exports, which has led to international corporations setting up factories in those countries at the expense of American workers.
The threat of high tariffs by Trump has led some countries to want to negotiate new trade deals with the USA, which will probably lead to low, balanced but nonzero tariffs in both directions.
They’ll be taking the irrationality and hysteria out of things Nick-
A political tide is turning across Europe, and at its centre is a hard truth
You know before the yellow vests with the pitchforks and torches coming for the climate cult if they don’t see sense.
“Political leaders must start taking some of the hysteria out of the climate debate,” he wrote.
The message is unlikely to win applause from activists, but it may resonate with a weary public – and an increasingly cautious political class.
Yuppers.
He swings. He misses. (again)
Trump is working for free trade. RECIPROCAL Tarriffs. Get it, got it, good.
An excellent comment.
Regarding wind, solar and batteries, I was stunned in 2000 when Merkel called for ENERGIEWENDE UBER ALLES.
There will be a lot of stranded bs investments
Regarding gender, Trump told Starmer no trade agreement until the UK bans the gender sh..!
Maybe if you think hard enough you will come to understand what Trump’s tariffs are all about.
I don’t hold much hope for that though.
Would you please expand on “what Trump’s tariffs are all about”. With attributions.
Every Sunday AM we get 2-3 differing rationales from his hired help. Often differing from week to week.
Separately, a month late to the game, I got with my $ guy to change/alter all of my investments to guaranteed downside protection, until on/around 11/26. A few of the changes will be deferred due to tax exposures, but I’m ~2/3 out as of today. My old portfolio changed up/down at ~1/3 of the rate of the S&P, and my new one will gain ARO 3.5+/-%/year (plenty good enough to live on, as oilfield work allows you to save up, if you don’t drag out ex wives and old houses behind you). So, save the link and feel free to tol’ja so in the months ahead.
lol.. you are so far away from understanding that it is hilarious.
Do you understand the word “gambit”? Being used to bring people to the table?
As for the rest of your post….. no-one cares. !
So, no coherent explain w.r.t. understanding “what Trump’s tariffs are all about”. And of course, no attributions to go along with your incoherence. Just some gauzy, irrelevant, word, that has NO connection to what 47 is failing to do. Unless it means begging, in another land.
Folks Kai Ryssdal got it right. There. Is No. Plan.
“As for the rest of your post….. no-one cares. !”
I was hoping to engage in a friendly wager. If the S&P has not trended up between now and YE, you must tell us in the next open thread – with no weasel words elsewhere – that “Living with genital herpes has made me a better man.” If so, then me.
I mean after all, its YOU singing the economic praises of our narcissistic patrimonist kleptocrat. Grow a pair!
Trump was hired by the American people to be disruptive, both times.
This time his tactics are more astute. To get real and lasting change one must destroy the status quo and shake people out of complacency. He is succeed in both. The tariffs are not intended to be permanent. They are intended to rattle cages and get people to start negotiating. Something like 170 countries are inline to renegotiate trade.
The US economy cannot bleed $1T per year forever, especially with the mass exodus of manufacturing over the decades.
See… Sparta gets it ! 🙂
If you’ve been paying attention, you know it’s the unseen underlings who hammer out the details. Always. The bigwigs make an announcement at the beginning of negotiations and then take a bow when the agreements are ready to sign.
If the Indians encourage gas and oil exploration by US firms, their supply problems might be solvable.
Coal fields seem to have associated gas, and India has coal. The Europeans and Brits have shuddered at the thought of fracking, but Modi’s government seems less panic stricken.
I take this as positive news !
And the President can re-impose the ban if you don’t behave yourself, of course.
That’s the way of the world. Everything’s good – until it isn’t. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and there’s not much wrong with a quiet life. So far, so good.
It take Congress to get off their collective butts and pass legislation making it permanent. EOs are merely stop gap policy measures.
Unfortunately it depends on Congress for which I hold little hope in present time.
Unfortunately, the weak sister in the QUAD alliance is Australia.
India, Japan and the now-rational USA are all reliable energy realists, using what works –
coal, gas, oil, nuclear.
Conversely, Australia’s current (and likely continuing) socialist government is doing everything in its power to shut down reliable energy sources, and commit the country to reliance on wind, solar and batteries.
No matter how many observations are presented about the physical inadequacies of w-s-b to provide reliable, affordable utility-scale electricity to meet demand, the Labor government there won’t acknowledge reality.
That’s ideology for you. This one is a religious cult.
Perhaps a holiday in Spain would change their minds.
Nonsense! A rare atmospheric condition! Also spectral emanations from the ghosts of wage slaves killed in coal mines. Blackouts strengthen the grid! Nothing to see here, move along!
I hope you are kidding.
Just channeling my inner Nick.
Or wading with tall boots in sinking Venice
Agree Mr. One can only hope that the Liberals win the federal election in Australia this weekend (3 May 2025).
(Strangely, the Liberal party is the name of the main conservative party in Australia. Also Red is socialist and Blue is Conservative).
Hopefully the win will make Australia a stronger partner in the QUAD.
Of course the colors are inverted. Australia is upside down on the planet.
/humor
Not religious, marxist. Before China formally annexes 澳大利亚省 (Aodaliya sheng = Australia province), they will first set up a puppet government of traitors, abetted by fools and self-loathers.
Everything going according to plan it seems.
Except Marxism is a religion, just a godless one.
True enough. They have absolute certainty that there are no absolutes.
Awww, do you mean that Australia will stop acting as a US “deputy sheriff”? That phrase was used by a US President and Australian Prime Minister.
I thought the present Australian puppet government of traitors, abetted by fools and self-loathers, was subservient to the US, not China. I must admit that there are more “Chinatowns” than “USAtowns” in Australian cities, and probably more Chinese restaurants than American restaurants. Of course, we follow the lead of the USA.
And why not, I say!
Australia is fortunate to have a large land area that is sparsely populated, at an average of only 3.48 people per km2. With a large portion of the continent as desert with abundant sunshine, Australia can afford to develop solar energy, while using a minimal amount of fossil fuels to provide baseload energy for 27 million people.
India has less than 43% of Australia’s land area, but over 54 times Australia’s population, so the available solar energy per capita is less than 1% of that available in Australia. India probably needs most of its arable land to feed its huge population, and while hydro in the foothills of the Himalayas could provide some energy, there is very little space available for wind and solar, so that India will have to rely on fossil fuels, and eventually nuclear energy.
This comparison demonstrates the folly of trying to impose a “one-size-fits-all” worldwide policy on CO2 emissions, since resources and population are unevenly distributed between countries.
Most countries try to develop whatever resources they have for their own people, and try to buy what they lack in exchange for resources they have in abundance.
By the way, what was Merkel thinking about trying to develop solar energy in Germany, when most of the country is above 50 degrees north latitude, and skies are cloudy more often than not?
The solution is apparently to send half of India to Australia, isn’t that the plan? Oh wait, maybe a quarter. The other quarter are in England from what I’ve seen.
Steve, India has the Thar desert. 200,000 sq km of solar panels should generate a fair bit of power.
Australia is the driest inhabited continent on Earth, and Indians don’t even like living in their own deserts all that much.
About one in three Australian residents were born outside Australia, and include a fair number of people from the Indian sub-continent. I’m not complaining – that’s life. The only constant is change.
It is clear that Modi understands the very limited utility of Solar power on grid scale. ( A good leader is Modi, and he does not have TDS)
Very nice.
Story tip: So far we Spain has 7 deaths directly tied to the blackout and it’s now a police investigation.
https://www.euronews.com/2025/04/29/power-returns-after-massive-blackout-in-spain-and-portugal-as-fallout-continues
1.) No evidence the blackout was caused by a cyber attack2.) Ursula von der Leyen has not accused Russia3.) Portuguese grid operator denies blaming ‘rare atmospheric phenomenon’ and ruled out
The green activists are in full spin because they are running out of excuses as to how the grid went down.
Ah yes, the old enemies in our midst stratagem. Saboteurs and enemies of the state! Even the most robust energy system is vulnerable to the malign machinations of climate deniers. We must have a Final Solution to the problem of the climate deniers!
You see that coming, too.
What happened is clear. The grid was not sufficiently stable. One of more transients were imposed on the grid and it started oscillating. Step functions do that when the system is not sufficiently damped (in control theory terms). The oscillations caused the invertors to lose synch and the grid hit multiple tipping (tripping) points and crashed.
They were lucky major damage did not happen. By waiting until after demand diminished they were able to reboot the system.
Check wind speeds, 15 minute by 15 minute
We had a power outage in north central Wokeachusetts last night. It only lasted an hour and I think it was mostly the surrounding several miles. We’ve had very wind weather so maybe a tree fell on a power line. We also had one in early winter that last several hours. So, 2 in the past 4-5 months- after going several years with no outages, at least in my area. Maybe it’ll be blamed on the wind but I suspect with so much money be invested in “green energy”- not enough is going into tree maintenance along the power lines.
That handshake is interesting. I wonder if Modi is a Freemason?
The apron is wot gives it away 😂
A curiosity, of course, but I would not make it more than a handshake.
As to tariffs, reports are that China has blinked and is adding to the list of US imports that are not affected by China tariffs.