‘Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past’

From MasterResource

By Robert Bradley Jr. — March 5, 2025

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”

– David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia (2000)

One argument against the climate alarmism is the failed predictive record of the scientist-activists themselves. One salient example can be found in The Independent (March 20, 2000), “Snowfalls are now Just a Thing of the Past. The prediction belonged to David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia (yes, of Climategate infamy).

The Independent has deleted this article, but secondary sources have captured it for posperity. As in: never forget….

“Britain’s winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives,” the article began. Continuing:

Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain’s culture, as warmer winters – which scientists are attributing to global climate change – produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.

Recent, anecdotal evidence was controlling.

The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London’s last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.

The UK’s global warming was winter-oriented:

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

Back to (then) recent, anecdotal evidence:

The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent. This year, for the first time ever, Hamleys, Britain’s biggest toyshop, had no sledges on display in its Regent Street store. “It was a bit of a first,” a spokesperson said.

Fen skating, once a popular sport on the fields of East Anglia, now takes place on indoor artificial rinks. Malcolm Robinson, of the Fenland Indoor Speed Skating Club in Peterborough, says they have not skated outside since 1997. “As a boy, I can remember being on ice most winters. Now it’s few and far between,” he said.

Michael Jeacock, a Cambridgeshire local historian, added that a generation was growing up “without experiencing one of the greatest joys and privileges of living in this part of the world – open-air skating”.

Winter warming would seem to have distinct benefits, from lower energy bills to fewer cold deaths. But not so, the article stated.

Warmer winters have significant environmental and economic implications, and a wide range of research indicates that pests and plant diseases, usually killed back by sharp frosts, are likely to flourish. But very little research has been done on the cultural implications of climate change – into the possibility, for example, that our notion of Christmas might have to shift.

The end of snow was considered a sure thing.

Professor Jarich Oosten, an anthropologist at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, says that even if we no longer see snow, it will remain culturally important.

“We don’t really have wolves in Europe any more, but they are still an important part of our culture and everyone knows what they look like,” he said.

David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes – or eventually “feel” virtual cold.

Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. “We’re really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time,” he said.

The chances are certainly now stacked against the sort of heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in “London Snow” of it, “stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying”.

Not any more, it seems.

Like the Climategate emails, you cannot undo the words, sentences and paragraphs of this article.

Elsewhere, SkepticalScience was concerned about too much snow:

The 2009/2010 winter saw a number of dramatic, record-breaking snowstorms. Early February saw two “once in a 100 years” snowstorms hit Philadelphia, now being dubbed “Snowmageddon”. Does record snowfall prove that global warming isn’t happening? What do observations say? 2009 was the second hottest year on record. January 2010 was the hottest January in the UAH satellite record. Satellites data indicates last month was the second hottest February in the satellite record. Observations tell us that rumours of global warming’s death have been greatly exaggerated. 

Exaggeration Backfires

With plenty of snow and even record chills, we are told that “climate change” is the reason. Such a dodge is too little, too late. Chronic exaggeration creates a credibility problem, as documented in Michael Shellenberger’s Apocalypse Never, which referenced his Forbes column, Why Climate Alarmism Hurts Us All.

Bjorn Lomborg’s best-seller, False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet,” hits upon the same theme. And do not forget a 16-year-old piece by the then New York Times climate scribe Andrew Revkin, In Climate Debate, Exaggeration Is a Pitfall.

The last word belong to Fred Krupp, former head of the Environmental Defense Fund, who stated in 2011:

There has to be a lot of shrillness taken out of our language. In the environmental community, we have to be more humble. We can’t take the attitude that we have all the answers.”

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March 6, 2025 2:04 am

Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/19/hump-day-hilarity-big-kahuna-warmy/

Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
March 6, 2025 3:56 am

Love it! 🙂

1saveenergy
March 6, 2025 2:44 am

What moron made that picture ??
It’s a complete cock-up …

The lamps on Westminster Bridge have 3 globes, not one;
There are no trees or seats on Westminster Bridge;
Bus route 27 runs from  Hammersmith – Kensington – Paddington – Camden Town – Chalk Farm, nowhere near Westminster;
The bus is on the wrong side of the road, Traffic in the UK drives on the left.

strativarius
Reply to  1saveenergy
March 6, 2025 3:23 am

Perhaps some form of AI is the moron? Either way, here is Ed Miliband’s preferred mode of transport – username would approve…

comment image

Reply to  strativarius
March 6, 2025 6:22 am

This article is bemoaning the consequences of coming out of the 400-year Little Ice Age, which was known for starvation, short growing seasons, population stagnation, short life expectancy, wars, and universal misery, except for the moneyed elites

Charles Dickens wrote about it

Then the use of fossil fuel gradually became worldwide, which increased CO2 ppm, which increased flora and fauna growth and increased crop yields to feed billions of people.
Soon, we will be growing grapes in the UK again.

Why in hell are these people moaning, groaning and complaining?

Reply to  wilpost
March 6, 2025 8:24 am

At its base their philosophy is similar to that of the Luddites. Every time I read one of their idiotic prophesies I am reminded of Tyeve in Fiddler on the Roof and his continued use of “Tradition”. We shouldn’t let CO2 change because the old CO2 levels worked for our forefathers and we must not change that.

It’s actually nothing more that the argumentative fallacy of Appeal to Tradition:”The appeal takes the form of “this is right because we’ve always done it this way”, and is a logical fallacy.”

Dave Andrews
Reply to  wilpost
March 6, 2025 8:35 am

We are already growing grapes commercially in the UK and in 2023 a bumper harvest of 21m bottles of wine was produced up from around 8m bottles in 2018.

I’m not much of a wine drinker so I can’t tell you if it was any good compared to other wines 🙂

strativarius
Reply to  Dave Andrews
March 6, 2025 9:02 am

The Romans had vineyards in Britannia

MarkW
Reply to  Dave Andrews
March 6, 2025 10:11 am

Modern grapes have been bred for greater cold tolerance.

Reply to  Dave Andrews
March 9, 2025 9:02 pm

Well, I consumed a bottle of said UK wine in a well-heeled Mayfair restaurant just last year. I’m not a wine buff but UK and good wine should not be used in the same sentence. I have consumed better in rural Greece.

Reply to  wilpost
March 7, 2025 4:49 am

Exactly. The biggest lie is the ridiculous notion that a warmer climate is worse.

Her Goebbels is snickering from hell.

Scarecrow Repair
Reply to  strativarius
March 6, 2025 9:15 am

I AM NOT A NUMBER!

KevinM
Reply to  Scarecrow Repair
March 6, 2025 11:58 am

1 is a number.

CampsieFellow
Reply to  1saveenergy
March 6, 2025 3:44 am

That’s a bit like the article “contradicting” predictions of less snow in the UK by referring to record snow in Philadelphia.

sherro01
Reply to  1saveenergy
March 6, 2025 3:55 am

Excellent of you to study the detail and report on some of being wrong or invented.
WUWT encourages you to study the detail of climate change research, to report on the wrong and the invented. Go for it! Geoff S

Robert Cutler
Reply to  sherro01
March 6, 2025 6:05 am

I agree, and applaud 1saveenergy for pointing out the problem. I’d ask that WUWT formally respond to the criticism. We are entering the age of AI generated content where fact checking that content will largely rely on using AI-based searches. How will we know if the next realistic-looking graph or image posted on WUWT is real? Sorry to be blunt, but the human editors will need to up their game. We need to keep humans in the loop.

Someone recently asked, what remote job can’t be replaced by AI in five years? That’s a tough question to answer. I’m not sure editors are immune, or even required if everything is AI generated. The only jobs that are safe are those that require a physical presence, or for which adequate training data is not available.

KevinM
Reply to  Robert Cutler
March 6, 2025 12:00 pm

Do you program?

Robert Cutler
Reply to  KevinM
March 6, 2025 1:17 pm

All the time, though I let Grok3 try to program a wavelet transform program. It took several iterations and a bit of coaching, but it finally came up with something useful. It even showed some initiative by creating fake sunspot data. I hadn’t asked for that.

Why do you ask?

comment image

KevinM
Reply to  Robert Cutler
March 6, 2025 1:33 pm

Exploring the relationship between attitudes about AI and programming expertise. Feedback has been diverse/uncorrelated so far.

Reply to  KevinM
March 6, 2025 1:45 pm

That’s what I do for a living.
Note that Robert said “It took several iterations and a bit of coaching” – it’s going to require people to do that.

My personal experience with AI and code is that it’s no better than copypasta from StackOverflow.

Robert Cutler
Reply to  Tony_G
March 6, 2025 2:44 pm

I mostly agree, Tony, but I find it faster than searching StackOverflow. Have you tried Grock3? I found other AI’s to be mostly useless, but that was several months ago. Overall I would say it will enhance productivity. In five years, who knows.

What’s interesting is the prompt I initially used didn’t mention wavelet transforms. I simply asked Grok to write a python program to reproduce a figure in a paper, and said the sunspot data was in a csv file with specified column names.. It had to figure out the task from the text. That was impressive.

Reply to  Robert Cutler
March 6, 2025 5:16 pm

I have not tried that one, I’ll have to check it out.

I DO agree that it can be a very powerful tool, in the hands of someone who knows how to use it. But I think there’s going to always have to be that human factor at the last step between the AI and it’s digital world and reality (think civil engineering like bridges, instead of software).

If nothing else, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out over the next five years.

1saveenergy
Reply to  sherro01
March 6, 2025 6:56 am

“WUWT encourages you to study the detail of climate change research, to report on the wrong and the invented.”

I’ve been doing that since 2008; made a few friends & annoyed lots of people (particularly politicians) so life is good.

Reply to  sherro01
March 6, 2025 1:38 pm

A completely fabricated, entirely flawed image seems appropriate given the authenticity of the narrative itself.

Reply to  1saveenergy
March 6, 2025 4:36 am

Here’s a real one, taken by NASA 10 years after the “children won’t know…”

556px-Great_Britain_Snowy
strativarius
Reply to  Alpha
March 6, 2025 4:46 am

Even Cornwall froze.

Rich Davis
Reply to  1saveenergy
March 6, 2025 4:52 am

It’s a story about predictions of the future isn’t it? That’s the view from 2075.

When England became the 57th state, well technically Commonwealth, in 2027, left side driving was obviously abolished. Trees were planted by President Trump and Governor Farage to commemorate the removal of all illegal migrants in 2028. DOGE redesigned the lamp posts and the more practical single-globe design was phased in gradually. The renumbering of the bus routes was a routine matter and I cannot give you details on that I’m afraid.

Bryan A
Reply to  Rich Davis
March 6, 2025 5:33 am

I believe the route remembering was to accommodate a new route 47 in honour of Trump 47 and allow for a new route 48 for Vance 48

Perhaps the routes were resized into 15 second city segments??

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Rich Davis
March 6, 2025 10:50 am

Single globe lamps? Are those more energy efficient? LED bulbs perhaps?

Reply to  1saveenergy
March 6, 2025 6:10 am

Yes hard to reconcile that picture with this photo:
comment image

Or this one:
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipO_–W21gqDHnbQEUMeVIP9i9A3Xj4vkLBs1zXR=s1360-w1360-h1020

Giving_Cat
Reply to  1saveenergy
March 6, 2025 8:47 am

They used the same computer models that are used for climate projections.

Reply to  1saveenergy
March 6, 2025 9:05 am

What moron made that picture ??”

Excellent observation and question. Answer: look to photoshopping created by “artificial intelligence” (a more accurate combination of words cannot be found).

Reply to  ToldYouSo
March 7, 2025 4:54 am

Automated Idiocy is so much more honest.

Someone
Reply to  1saveenergy
March 6, 2025 9:49 am

It was AI unaided by real intelligence.

Max More
Reply to  1saveenergy
March 6, 2025 12:30 pm

It looks to me like the bus is on the left but it really isn’t clear. Using Google Maps, it looks like you are correct about the lamps.

Bruce Cobb
March 6, 2025 2:52 am

in 2010, Jimmy “Coal Trains of Death” Hansen published his clarion call “Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth about the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity”. With drivel like that being written by a so-called “scientist”, I think it’s more like the children just aren’t going to know what science is.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
March 6, 2025 9:00 am

At least Hansen recognised that wind and solar were not the answer.

“suggesting renewables will let us phase rapidly off fossil fuels in the US, China India and the world as a whole is almost the equivalent of believing in the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy”

‘Baby Lauren and the Kool Aid’ 2011

Reply to  Dave Andrews
March 7, 2025 7:55 am

But his “Trains of death” are more like “trains of life.”

And then there’s that “West Side Highway will be under water” prediction that illustrates his hyperbole…

Scarecrow Repair
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
March 6, 2025 9:17 am

More Grimms’ Fairy Tales of Hansen and Greta, please.

KevinM
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
March 6, 2025 12:05 pm

Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity is climate scientist James Hansen’s first book, published by Bloomsbury Press in 2009. The book is about threats to people and habitability for life on earth from global warming.
Learned something today. Yes, JH wrote a book called that… I wondered whether you’d made it up.

Reply to  KevinM
March 7, 2025 7:58 am

Meanwhile, REALITY refuses to cooperate, since “storms” are not getting either more frequent OR more severe.

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
March 7, 2025 6:43 am

How true. There are already lots of adults that don’t know what science is. The (recently, in particular) college educated are noteworthy for their zeal to point out the “consensus” crap, as a front-and-center example.

strativarius
March 6, 2025 3:12 am

Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past’

One could chime in: “cheap energy [in the UK] is now just a thing of the past“.

There are a great many failed predictions and not a single correct one – not even close.
The scares – eg AMOC, global ice, sea level, insectageddon, 6th extinction etc etc – go round in periodic cycles – and now feature the recently discovered magic of “attribution modelling”. A big hat tip to Freddie Otto and the freaks at the Grantham Institute at Imperial.

Recently, it was AMOC and today? Ice, of course…

“Global sea ice hit ‘all-time minimum’ in February, scientists say

Global sea ice fell to a record low in February, scientists have said, a symptom of an atmosphere fouled by planet-heating pollutants. [yada, yada, yada]
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/06/global-sea-ice-hit-all-time-minimum-in-february-scientists-say

It’s a rehash of the same old bolleaux. Do they keep scattergun firing these ludicrous stories in the media in the hope they might just get a lucky hit one day? It sure looks like it.

an atmosphere fouled by planet-heating pollutants.” That says it all.

Reply to  strativarius
March 6, 2025 4:03 am

“Do they keep scattergun firing these ludicrous stories in the media in the hope they might just get a lucky hit one day?”

They are going on the assumption that if they repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it. To a certain extent, that is true.

strativarius
Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 6, 2025 4:31 am

They’ve had media control for decades now.

Why is it so hard to get people to care about climate change? A neuroscientist and a psychologist shed light

A poll on Wednesday found the vast majority of us, some 70%, understand climate change was driving Britain’s unprecedented heat, while 17% said it was unrelated.

That’s still more than one in ten people who do not realise, or accept the science that heatwaves are unilaterally linked with global warming.
https://news.sky.com/story/wildfires-heatwaves-and-drought-the-climate-crisis-is-staring-us-in-the-face-but-why-cant-we-believe-it-12655768

That’s very interesting: “heatwaves are unilaterally linked with global warming.”

I’m beginning to wonder if today’s activist/journalist/hacktivist ever studied English?
The word ‘unilaterally’ means doing or deciding something without consulting or agreeing with others. 

What a giveaway.

Mary Jones
Reply to  strativarius
March 6, 2025 7:28 am

I’m beginning to wonder if today’s activist/journalist/hacktivist ever studied English?

The word ‘unilaterally’ means doing or deciding something without consulting or agreeing with others. 

The other dead giveaway is the ubiquitous use of the term “unprecedented,” which means “never ever happened before.” Of course, that assumes that we have detailed historical weather records from every moment in history – which we do not. It also denies that the Jurassic Period ever occurred.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Mary Jones
March 6, 2025 9:12 am

Don’t be silly it is obviously unprecedented if Freddie has never seen it before 🙂

Reply to  Mary Jones
March 7, 2025 1:07 pm

They deny the existence of every warm period during the current epoch!

ALL OF WHICH WERE WARMER THAN IT IS NOW!

UNPRECEDENTED?! My ass!

And with typical leftist tactics, they try to paint those whose view does not conform with theirs as the “deners.”

Reply to  AGW is Not Science
March 7, 2025 3:28 pm

(S/B “deniers”)

KevinM
Reply to  strativarius
March 6, 2025 12:09 pm

A poll on Wednesday found the vast majority of us, some 70%, understand climate change was driving Britain’s unprecedented heat, while 17% said it was unrelated.

70+17 = 87
That leaves only 13% who understand what the word unprecedented means.

Reply to  KevinM
March 7, 2025 3:31 pm

Unless some of the 17% understood that it was *both* unrelated *and* most certainly NOT “unprecedented.”

Reply to  strativarius
March 7, 2025 1:04 pm

😂 🤣 😅 😆

Yeah, “climate science” is “unilaterally decided,” alright.
,

Dave Andrews
Reply to  strativarius
March 6, 2025 9:09 am

“planet heating pollutants” – Is that their self description? 🙂

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Dave Andrews
March 6, 2025 10:53 am

It’s the current alternative to “climate pollutants.”

Reply to  Dave Andrews
March 6, 2025 11:11 am

The only thing that heats the Earth is the Sun, minus a few percent of radioactive decay.. So old Sol is the chief polluter. When you purposely create definitions to suit your agendas, you have to live with those definitions or be exposed as hypocritical liars. You can’t have it both ways.

Reply to  Dave Andrews
March 7, 2025 3:35 pm

“Planet heating pollutants” is an oxymoron. An *actual* “pollutant” would generally *block sunlight* and would therefore be a planet COOLING substance, not a planet heating substance.

CO2 is not a pollutant, and there is no empirical evidence that it “heats” the planet at all.

CampsieFellow
March 6, 2025 3:41 am

I live near Glasgow. This winter we have had hardly any snow and certainly not enough to make a snowman. But what’s all the fuss among climate realists about people saying that there will be less snow? Commenters on WUWT are frequently pointing out that we are emerging from the Little Ice Age. So shouldn’t we expect less snow?

strativarius
Reply to  CampsieFellow
March 6, 2025 3:57 am

This is the age of the instruction manual – in a word Ingsoc. The weather (and Carbon dioxide) has been co-opted as a means of neo-religious control over the common man.

Christianity, when it existed in England, had fish on Friday etc. But at least that was understandable; Christ died on a Friday and so it was deemed inappropriate to consume meat on a Friday. But that’s just one day in a week if you choose to observe it. Now it’s naked feudalism – the elites know what is best for the common oik and the common oik must be coerced and forced into making the right choices.….

Curbing the world’s huge and increasing appetite for meat is essential to avoid devastating climate change, according to a new report. 

“Preventing catastrophic warming is dependent on tackling meat and dairy consumption, but the world is doing very little,” said Rob Bailey, the report’s lead author. “A lot is being done on deforestation and transport, but there is a huge gap on the livestock sector. There is a deep reluctance to engage because of the received wisdom that it is not the place of governments or civil society to intrude into people’s lives and tell them what to eat.”
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/03/eating-less-meat-curb-climate-change

And there’s that desire, that urge, that need to control others.

Scissor
Reply to  strativarius
March 6, 2025 4:52 am

Oik. Are there other 3 letter English words I don’t know? Learn something new every day.

strativarius
Reply to  Scissor
March 6, 2025 5:22 am

If I said to you I think Joe Biden is a git...

I would be saying he is: an unpleasant, silly, incompetent, annoying, senile, elderly or childish person. It’s close to the four letter word Prat.

Kim Swain
Reply to  strativarius
March 6, 2025 6:21 am

Git also means a pregnant camel!

strativarius
Reply to  Kim Swain
March 6, 2025 6:45 am

Keir Starmer is… a git.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Kim Swain
March 6, 2025 10:58 am

Michael Mann is a git.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Scissor
March 6, 2025 9:16 am

Plenty of four letter words you don’t want to know!

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Dave Andrews
March 6, 2025 10:58 am

You mean (4) like (4) work (4)?

atticman
Reply to  CampsieFellow
March 6, 2025 4:00 am

Looks like northern England got most of it; the Campsie Fells seem to have missed out…

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  CampsieFellow
March 6, 2025 4:30 am

Go away, troll.

MarkW
Reply to  CampsieFellow
March 6, 2025 10:20 am

It doesn’t matter that the prediction was completely wrong?

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  CampsieFellow
March 6, 2025 10:54 am

Point, set, and match.

Yes. Warmer COULD mean less snow.

BUT IT AIN’T CO2.

Reply to  CampsieFellow
March 10, 2025 12:23 pm

The fuss is that this is a fine example of their “predictions” that, if they pan out (generally NOT), would be touted as “evidence” of their pet (non-existent) “catastrophe,” but when they don’t pan out, are conveniently forgotten, only to be dusted off and retreaded with a new “expiration date.”

And the fact that said “predictions” change to and/or include things which are the polar opposite of one another is supposed to be completely disregarded, as they spew their endless nonsense with straight faces.

March 6, 2025 3:53 am

From the article: “The 2009/2010 winter saw a number of dramatic, record-breaking snowstorms. Early February saw two “once in a 100 years” snowstorms hit Philadelphia, now being dubbed “Snowmageddon”. Does record snowfall prove that global warming isn’t happening? What do observations say? 2009 was the second hottest year on record. January 2010 was the hottest January in the UAH satellite record. Satellites data indicates last month was the second hottest February in the satellite record”

All this “hottest month” BS is just that. The year 1998 was warmer than 2009 and 2010. When you look at the chart, you can put things in perspective.

comment image

Reply to  Tom Abbott
March 6, 2025 2:50 pm

All the peak temps align with El Niños, which increase evaporation, and increase cloud cover, and increase surface temps.
CO2, a trace gas and weak absorber of a part of the available IR photons, plays an invisible role.

March 6, 2025 4:31 am

Having a look here,
https://electroverse.info/
the “past” isn’t over yet.

rovingbroker
March 6, 2025 4:39 am
  1. The only constant is change.
  2. Prediction is hard — especially about the future.

I submit this while sitting in my Midwest US dining room watching the snow fall.

What causes an ice age?
https://gml.noaa.gov/outreach/info_activities/pdfs/PSA_ice_ages.pdf

What causes an ice age? The Earth is constantly undergoing changes. These changes can impact the global climate.

Scissor
Reply to  rovingbroker
March 6, 2025 4:55 am

I repaired a snowblower that was given to me, so of course we’ve had no big snowfalls yet this season that one of my plastic shovels couldn’t handle.

strativarius
Reply to  Scissor
March 6, 2025 5:25 am

Sod’s law in action.

Reply to  Scissor
March 6, 2025 6:36 am

La Niña is ending, so next winter, you’ll probably need it. During out last El Niño, the snow was deep. But even this past winter, we used the blower. COS got 20 inches of snow in November alone.

Bryan A
Reply to  rovingbroker
March 6, 2025 5:38 am

I heard that Glaciers Grow (Advance) more during cold summers than cold winters.

March 6, 2025 5:58 am

Interesting that whenever they quote Viner that always leave this bit out Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. “We’re really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time,” he said.

His prediction was completely accurate!

John Hultquist
Reply to  Phil.
March 6, 2025 8:07 am

” whenever they quote Viner
As I read the post, “they” did include the bit you imply they did not.
I think I need a drink! 🍷

Reply to  John Hultquist
March 6, 2025 5:35 pm

The first line of the post is: “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
– David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia (2000)

That’s typically what you see as a quote. Later the post includes a transcript of the original article but that is not what is normally done.

MarkW
Reply to  Phil.
March 6, 2025 10:23 am

How is it accurate?
Snow is still a regular occurrence.

Reply to  MarkW
March 6, 2025 5:58 pm

This is what Viner was responding to in the original article: “The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London’s last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.”

That is a trend which has continued in lowland Britain so yes it is accurate, as was his comment that occasional snowfalls in the future will cause chaos.

bdgwx
Reply to  Phil.
March 6, 2025 3:02 pm

Yeah and besides Viner never said “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past” anyway. That was Charles Onians who actually said that.

Reply to  bdgwx
March 6, 2025 4:32 pm

So Charles Onians was even more stupid than Viner… WOW !!

March 6, 2025 8:08 am

Snow isn’t yet a thing of the past in Britain. But for anyone who is prepared to lift their head out of the sand, it has become pretty rare in most parts of the UK. Testament to this is the ongoing collapse of Scottish skiing. Since the late 1980s, skiing in Scotland has become increasingly marginal. Viner of course was referring primarily to UK snow, rather than to snow in generally much colder climes. Snow has always been marginal in most of the UK but over the mountains of Highland Scotland, up until late 1980s, there was virtually guaranteed 3 to 4 months of substantial and continuous cover above 6-800m altitude. There were a few exceptions of course. This has now reversed to the point where long – lasting winter cover is the exception, rather than the rule. The last time we had decent snow cover was winter 2020/21. Now, this is fact, and I know because I’m directly involved in the skiing industry in Scotland. But the diehards on here will no doubt downvote this anyway!

taxed
Reply to  Neutral1966
March 6, 2025 10:17 am

If as you claim that you are directly involved in the skiing industry, then you will understand how dependent it is on the weather over the winter months.
With one key factor been from where the air mass is been sourced during the winter months. As any increase in a source mild air which the winds from the SW bring will lead to the warming of UK winters.

To show just how important wind direction is to winter temps here in the UK, then here are some facts for you. The December of 1981 was one of the coldest December’s during the 20th century and just so happened when l was keeping a record on the local weather during which one of the things l recorded was the direction of the wind twice a day.
So from the wind direction data alone which of the following December recordings do you think was December 1981.
(1) or (2).

(1)
West 21
NW 20
SW 16
South 1
SE 1

(2)
NE 16
SE 13
NW 11
North 9
East 9
South 3
West 1

Anyone with any understanding of the British weather will find this one easy to answer and with that been the case. Then it clearly shows just what a important role wind direction plays in the temperatures and the amount of snowcover been recorded during the winter months in the UK.

Reply to  taxed
March 6, 2025 3:16 pm

I’m very aware of the importance of wind direction. This is obvious to anyone with even the most basic understanding of the weather. The fact is I’m all too well aware that most of our weather in recent decades comes from the SW. However, we very seldom experience the old style “returning polar maritime” from the SW in more recent times. This wind direction used to keep higher altitudes sub-zero, even with winds coming out of sw. By contrast, these days the winds circulating the central N Atlantic, originating from polar regions now become so heavily moderated by warmth, that by the time they arrive on our shores, the polar influence has all but disappeared.
Similarly, there was a time that a strong Greenland Blocking High would push the Atlantic systems much further south. But in recent winters, we’ve noticed, the Atlantic depressions linger much longer to the SW, and just overwhelm the northern block. Several times in recent winters, powerful northern blocking highs have failed to stop the Atlantic systems winning through.
The fabled Beast from the East has also turned into a damp squib. We actually had easterly air flow for a considerable period this winter but because the Baltic was unusually warm, this normally snow laden wind direction produced nothing more than a few light flurries.
The Scandinavian high once upon a time would dominate in such a powerful way that the returning polar continental airstream would produce cold SE or even southerly winds. When did that last happen? In fact this direction was often the biggest snow-maker for Scottish mountains. As frontal systems pushed up against the Scandinavian block, they would get stuck, depositing the contents of days of continuous blizzards onto north facing slopes, which is where the cover needs to be.
So don’t suppose we don’t understand wind direction and what directions of wind bring snow and which do not. You’ve over-simplified the process for someone, who has studied in an obsessive way for decades, what constitutes the ideal synoptics for Scottish mountain snow cover.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Neutral1966
March 6, 2025 11:09 am

So, based on the data you presented, snow coverage is cyclical.

Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
March 6, 2025 3:26 pm

Possibly, but I’m still waiting for the cycle to change back to a colder regime. So far, there’s been 37 years of snow cover becoming increasingly sparse. 35 years is not a long time in climate terms, so maybe it will switch back sometime. But at the moment, it’s not going in that direction.

KevinM
Reply to  Neutral1966
March 6, 2025 12:18 pm

The last time we had decent snow cover was winter 2020/21
No downvote, but you see that was 5 years ago? How old is Earth, do you think?

Reply to  KevinM
March 6, 2025 3:37 pm

That’s 1 good season in 5. During the previous decade there were 3 good winters. The first decade of 21st Century produced just 1 good season. The 1990s had 4. That’s just 9 good winter seasons in 35 years. The 1980s alone produced 7 good seasons, while during 60s and 70s, there 19 good seasons. That’s a big difference.
By the way, I wasn’t commenting on whether or not this is to do with CO2 driven AGW. What I am saying is that snow in the UK is becoming an increasingly rare phenomenon. That’s simply an observation I’ve made particularly as regards skiing in Scotland. Draw your own conclusions, I’m just chipping in on the topic.

Reply to  Neutral1966
March 6, 2025 12:41 pm

Must be all those wind turbines !!

John XB
March 6, 2025 8:23 am

There has to be a lot of shrillness taken out of our language.”

Their problem is, that’s all they’ve got. Not only do they not have all the answers, they have no evidence.

Note: in the UK white Christmases have an ats been rare. A white Christmas is defined as snow fall during the 24 hours of Christmas Day. Snow around Christmas even if on the ground on Christmas Day, is not a white Christmas.

Most UK snow is late December and January/February sometimes later.

Reply to  John XB
March 7, 2025 7:33 am

The latest snowfall I recall was June 2nd 1975, I was going to watch a county cricket match in Buxton, Derbyshire. The first day had been a nice and sunny, the second day when I was planning to attend play was abandoned due to over an inch of snow accumulating on the pitch!

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taxed
March 6, 2025 8:41 am

What’s really needed to find the most likely cause of the warming of the British winters is a indepth study into the weather records since the 1960’s.
As l believe leading cause behind the warming has been due to a shift in the weather patterning towards more high pressure forming over the Azores and Europe, rather then over the northern Atlantic and northern Europe during the winter months. Which has the effect of increasing the source of the air masses from the south rather then from the colder regions in the North and East of the UK. While l also think the same cause is behind the warming of the springs as well.

The easiest way to show if this is correct would be to study the wind direction data from weather records of the British winters since the 1960’s. Because if there is a link to a increase in SW winds and the warming of the British winters seen since the 1960’s. Then that’s a strong indication that the cause of the warming has been due to a shift in weather patterning and not as clam due to man made CO2.
A other indicator that the cause of the winter warming is due to the weather patterning is the utter lack of change in the timing of the first winter snows over the last 50 years. As this trend towards increasing blocking over Europe and the Azores has largely been taking place during the late winter and spring rather then during the early winter. Had the cause of the warming been a more broad and general warming of the climate. Then l would have certainly have expected it to have had a impact on the timing of the first winter snows here in the UK.

KevinM
Reply to  taxed
March 6, 2025 12:20 pm

since the 1960’s
How old is Earth, do you think?

Reply to  taxed
March 6, 2025 3:54 pm

I think you’re absolutely correct. Azores and near continent blocking highs are indeed the main cause of the UK changed weather pattern. I guess you have to ask why has this change come about?
Personally, I believe it’s because there’s less cold pooling over the Arctic and Russia, while at the same time more warmth flowing further north from the tropics. Cold air arriving from Labrador in winter fires up a powerful jet as it engages with warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures. This causes the mid- Atlantic trough to dive further south, with the eastern flank of the trough carrying air from much further into the tropics. This process wouldn’t be as dominant if it weren’t for the growing differential between the warm N Atlantic and cold Labrador air.

taxed
Reply to  Neutral1966
March 7, 2025 2:12 am

The shift in the weather patterning alone can end up changing the climate. As increased blocking over the Azores can in its self lead to warmer waters in the N Atlantic. Because with this blocking comes less cloud cover and lighter winds over the area. Which allows for more sunshine to heat up the water over the Azores. The Mediterranean Sea would also be warmed up with increased blocking over southern Europe due to the same effect.

Increased jet stream activity within the Arctic circle has been a leading cause of warming within the Arctic during the winter months. As this increases the flow of air in and out of the Arctic circle which replaces the cold air forming in the Arctic with warmer air from the south more frequently, so which has the effect of warming up the Arctic during the winter.

Reply to  taxed
March 8, 2025 11:38 am

I guess my question will always be, which came first – the chicken or the egg? Has warming caused the pattern change; or has pattern change caused the warming? I have no axe to grind on this. The fact of the matter is that global temperatures keep on rising – especially in N Hemisphere. The fact that the N Hemisphere seems to be more affected suggests you may well be correct – the Azores blocking has a very wide ranging and pervasive influence – especially over Europe and can extend even into Russia, as well as the Arctic (as you point out). Personally, I believe it’s very little to do with CO2 but more likely to do with land use changes. Either way, I don’t believe it to be catastrophic….. except potentially for Scottish skiing and UK snow becoming increasingly rare….. which let’s face it, doesn’t exactly represent an existential crisis 😅.

Tom Halla
March 6, 2025 8:45 am

I am reaching old fart status, and I remember the The Ice Age is Coming Back scare. They were every bit as certain about that as some of the same people are certain about Global Warming.

Someone
Reply to  Tom Halla
March 6, 2025 9:55 am

They were right in that it is coming. But most likely the onset will be on time scale of hundreds of years, allowing adjustments, and not affecting current generation.

Reply to  Tom Halla
March 6, 2025 11:20 am

As I reach old fart status, i get up slowly while making my fathers grunting sounds, and turn up the thermostat on the wall, just as he did.

Bruce Cobb
March 6, 2025 11:12 am

There are those claiming that there is in fact less snow now than some cherry-picked time period. Maybe, but so what? Climate is always varying to some extent. Always has, always will. There was some cooling during the 50’s to about 1980 or so, and yes, there probably was more snow then. The point is, it has nothing to do with man.

KevinM
March 6, 2025 11:54 am

 the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers

They tried to hide it in adjectives and sentence structure, but the idea comes through to people who’ve thought about it. On most days, a little warmer would feel nicer.

March 6, 2025 1:56 pm

In 1980/81 I was required to spend 12 months in the UK for a navy promotion course.

We were in Plymouth for the winter of 1980 and had to go far and wide to find snow which, as an Aussie, I and my young children were looking forward to ‘enjoying’.

It was an extremely disappointing non-experience of snow

Edward Katz
March 6, 2025 2:09 pm

Notice how Viner covers his backside. On the one hand he told us that snowfall will be a thing of the past. Then he went on to say that there still will be heavy snowfalls. For climate alarmists this is a standard win-win situation; if they support two theories at once, they can’t be proven wrong.

bdgwx
Reply to  Edward Katz
March 6, 2025 3:01 pm

On the one hand he told us that snowfall will be a thing of the past.

Viner didn’t say snowfall will be a thing of the past. That was Charles Onians who said that.

Viner had two quotes in the article. He said snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event” and that “We’re really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time”.

Reply to  bdgwx
March 6, 2025 4:31 pm

Except it is not a rare event.

And when it does snow, it already causes chaos.

So Viner was talking meaningless twaddle. !

People will only get “caught out” because of listening to people like Viner.

Reply to  bnice2000
March 6, 2025 8:03 pm

This is what Viner was responding to in the original article: “The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London’s last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.”
My emphasis.
So it has become a rare event there, and even a snowfall of 0.5″ now causes chaos because unlike in the 60s and 70s no one has snowploughs anymore because storing one to use once every 5-10 years just doesn’t make sense.
Viner was on the money and his prediction came to pass.