Brazil’s Paris Pledge Lies in Tatters

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

 The World Bank Portal analysis of Brazil also includes details of the NDC, the emissions pledge made by the country as their contribution to the Paris Agreement:

https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/brazil

I wonder how that worked out?

BP Energy Review

We don’t have data for other GHGs, as they are not measured annually. But emissions of CO2 were 30% higher in 2023 than in 2005.

And they have barely dropped at all since the NDC was formally registered in 2016.

Yet the delusional Miliband still believes that the rest of the world follow our lead, and wreck their own economies as well!

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CampsieFellow
January 2, 2025 2:40 am

The Brazilian government, the United Nations and UNESCO are joining forces to strengthen research and measures to address disinformation campaigns that are delaying and derailing climate action.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/01/01/uns-new-mission-fight-the-climate-related-disinformation-running-rampant-on-social-media-debunk-myths-put-an-end-to-the-narratives-of-denialism/
Well, articles like this one will be the first to get the treatment. It’s clearly full of disinformation.How dare anybody accuse the Brazilian government of not keeping to its commitments? That can’t be allowed.

Florent Pirot
January 2, 2025 2:47 am

They need these CO2 emissions for their biofuel production. It’s in a certain way a partly closed cycle where their offshore oil industry is needed for more biofuel production.
But it’s true that more offshore oil would allow to save space for the Amazon forest – at least avoiding to clear more forests. Gov.br says Brazil is the world’s biggest offshore market…
Oil and gas are renewable resources thanks to deep underground magmatism which is a nuclear fission process. Ternary fission products (esp. protons) merge with beta – particles of fission products and under tectonic pressure merge from hydrogen to e.g. carbon and even with more pressure iron.
See one of the last footnotes in this peer reviewed article https://journals.scholarpublishing.org/index.php/AIVP/article/view/13459
Saying that “oil is abiotic” isn’t enough, this process has to be explained.
There is for instance in Nature a publication by G Zuo on geothermy in the Santos Basin (2023). This explains why there is also oil there, as I said. And it’s renewable through the process I explained, so long as there is geothermy.

MarkW
Reply to  Florent Pirot
January 2, 2025 9:00 am

Now that the lunatic fringe has been heard from …

Izaak Walton
Reply to  MarkW
January 2, 2025 9:13 am

But don’t forget that this is someone who has discovered that dogs and humans are have a common dinosaur ancestor. See “A Confirmation of the Dinosaur Ancestry of Humans Found in Dog DNA Analysishttps://journals.scholarpublishing.org/index.php/AIVP/article/view/10545

Florent Pirot
Reply to  Izaak Walton
January 3, 2025 12:14 pm

Surprising I know but true. But that’s totally outside the topic of this blog.

Florent Pirot
Reply to  MarkW
January 3, 2025 12:13 pm

I’m stating facts that may be too complicated for a blog discussion. Sorry.
Nevertheless the process exposed is the true one. There’s a peer reviewed article on ternary fission products from magmatism https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.201393998 I found out about the merger of ternary fission products to form products such as oil, gas and iron.

Reply to  Florent Pirot
January 2, 2025 3:13 pm

Pfffft.
Not even worth debunking.

Florent Pirot
Reply to  davidmhoffer
January 3, 2025 12:15 pm

Not even worth replying.

strativarius
January 2, 2025 3:09 am

Paris was quite some time ago, now. Although ‘Flywheel‘ is the public face of Labour’s net zero madness and obsession, he nonetheless has quite a few certifiable lunatics as Spads (special advisors) and he has other alternative advice** 

They should not be underestimated in their rabid zeal for things such as MyUsername‘s pet 15 minute gulags etc.

Personally speaking, what Brazil does is up to the people of Brazil, in the UK this never has been the case; except for the unique European question; the EEC and EU referenda (1975 and 2016)

With 20% of the vote Flywheel believes he has been granted a [nature given] democratic right to wreck the modern British economy. He is far from alone in that, his advisors naturally include XR personnel…

At Extinction Rebellion, we aimed for UK net zero in 2025. That won’t happen – so here’s what to do instead” ***

Pass the popcorn. Thankfully it isn’t packaged in that heavy (taxed) glass…

** https://order-order.com/2024/08/12/revealed-milibands-extreme-left-policy-team/

*** https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/01/extinction-rebellion-uk-net-zero-2025-climate

strativarius
Reply to  strativarius
January 2, 2025 4:30 am

The Guardian, Rupert Read?

Rupert Read: Rupert Read is the author of Extinction Rebellion: Insights from the Inside, and Co-Director of the Climate Majority Project 

Dave Andrews
Reply to  strativarius
January 2, 2025 8:37 am

The Climate Majority Project is spelt wrongly it is really the Mass Delusion Project.

Reply to  strativarius
January 2, 2025 5:33 am

Labor and Tories spout the same climate nonsense, and are nuts about having more wind, solar, batteries, heat pumps and EVsthat have further impoverished the UK people

It is long overdue to make a clean break and elect Farage by a landslide, more than 50% so he can clean house from A to Z, make the UK great again

strativarius
Reply to  wilpost
January 2, 2025 5:36 am

2029 is still a long way off

Beta Blocker
Reply to  strativarius
January 2, 2025 7:52 am

Looking east across the pond from here in the Good Old USA, neither Britain nor Germany are likely to abandon the course they are now on, with predictable short-term and long-term consequences for their economies.

Too many of their citizens have been drinking the climate crisis Kool Aid with the result that the status quo parties in each of those two nations will still be able to form working coalitions against the Reform Party in Britain and Afd in Germany.

And, if I’m not mistaken, the same thing is happening in Ireland, my ancestoral homeland, and with the same predictable short-term and long-term consequences.

Reply to  strativarius
January 2, 2025 1:55 pm

Pursuing net zero guarantees economic decline and irrelevance as an influencer.

Trump has not even taken office but his influence precedes him. The US will become even more relevant as its economic might strengthens.

Trump only needs to defund the UN and expel those officials without US passports to stop the Climate™ scam. Send a clear message that the scam has to end.

January 2, 2025 5:01 am

Meanwhile China goes from 7.6 billion tonnes in 2005 to 14 billion tonnes in 2023 and that’s all just dandy.

Net result, the result that counts apparently, the atmosphere has 9 billion tonnes more GHG emissions in it than 2005.

Well done everybody.

It’s such a scam.

https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions

Reply to  Alpha
January 2, 2025 5:38 am

China, India, Russia, Brazil, etc., about 60% of the population, are the smart ones, because they use fossil fuels that energizes their economies and the CO2 that greens the world, and produces more flora and fauna

They should be praised, and emulated not vilified

Reply to  wilpost
January 2, 2025 6:29 am

We Are in a CO2 Famine
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/we-are-in-a-co2-famine
By Willem Post
.
Atmospheric CO2 ppm, human plus natural, it is near the lowest level in 600 million years.
Highly subsidized CO2 sequestering schemes and Net Zero by 2050 schemes are super-expensive, ineffective suicide programs.
Crops in open fields, with CO2 at 420 ppm, require fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides and much machinery to have high yields/acre.
Crops in greenhouses, with CO2 at 1200 ppm, require minimal chemicals, have 2 to 3 times higher yields/acre
https://www.masterresource.org/carbon-dioxide/increased-plant-productivity-the-first-key-benefit-of-atmospheric-co2-enrichment/
.
Plants are on a starvation diet with CO2 at 420 ppm
The image shows plant growth at 420 ppm; at 420 +150; at 420 +300; at 420+450
.
Many plants have become weak or extinct, along with the fauna they support, due to CO2 at 420 ppm, or less.
As a result, many areas of the world lost resilience, became arid and deserts.
Current CO2 ppm needs to at least double or triple. Unfortunately, not enough fossil fuel is left over to make that CO2 increase happen.
Earth temperature increased about 1.2 C since 1900, due to many causes, such as long-term cycles, fossil CO2, and permafrost methane which converts to CO2.
.
CO2 ppm increase from 1979 to 2023 was 421/336 = 1.25, greening increase about 12%, per NASA.
CO2 ppm increase from 1900 to 2023 was 421/296 = 1.42, greening increase about 19%
.
Increased greening: 1) Produces oxygen by photosynthesis; 2) Increases world flora and fauna; 3) Increases crop yields per acre; 4) Reduces world desert areas

Picture2-Eldarica-Pine-Trees
Reply to  wilpost
January 2, 2025 6:33 am

CO2 Has a Very Minor Role in the Atmosphere
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/co2-has-a-very-minor-role-in-the-atmosphere
By Willem Post
.
The tropics and subtropics
CO2 a weak photon absorber, plays no measurable role, because, near the surface, it is outnumbered by about 27400/420 = 65 to 1 by water vapor, WV, a strong photon absorber.
Dry air molecules outnumber CO2 by 999,000/420 = 2400 to 1, and WV by 999,000/27400 = 35 to 1
All IR surface photons are eliminated by collision or absorption within 10 meter of the surface.
.
WV, 18, is lighter than CO2, 44, and air, 29, so it rises and condenses into clouds at about 2,000 meter elevation.
The clouds, with prevailing winds, are transported to northern latitudes, to areas underserved by the sun, especially during winter, with trees dormant for 6 or more months.
That means the WV and clouds we see up north, from the 37th parallel upwards, come from faraway places, because up north there is not enough energy to evaporate much water, where flora sheds its leaves and hibernates from September to April, and where much fauna migrates to southern latitudes. 
Any evaporation is from near or on the ground, such as from as dew, ground fog, snow and ice.
But, even up north, near the surface, CO2 plays no measurable role, because WV outnumbers CO2 by about 17700/420 = 42 to 1.
.
Northern Latitudes
In New England, during a low-pressure system, clouds from elsewhere accumulate to form a dense layer, which may produce precipitation; rain in summer, sleet and snow in winter. 
Local WV will freeze on grass and trees during the night in winter. It will evaporate by sunshine during the next day.
.
Above the Clouds
CO2 begins to play a measurable role when the presence of WV is less, say 3 to 1, at about 3,000 m elevation, which usually is above the clouds. 
WV freezes on all dry air molecules, and on CO2 molecules, pollen, aerosols, etc., similar to combustion WV condensing/freezing on ash particles and CO2 molecules from jet engines of airliners at 10,000 m elevation.
Any high frequency, sunlight photons are reflected and refracted. 
IR photons will be absorbed by the frozen WV molecules, or collide with other molecules, etc.
IR photons will not be absorbed by the CO2 molecules, because they are covered with ice. 
The thermal effect of the high-elevation absorption of IR photons (with longer wavelengths) is miniscule, compared to the absorption of IR photons (with shorter wavelengths) near the earth surface.
The atmosphere heat content, aka Enthalpy, is 358 kJ / m^3 near the surface, decreases to 19.5 KJ / m^3 at 20 km.
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/natural-forces-cause-periodic-global-warming
.
At colder temperatures above the clouds, any emitted IR photons would have longer wavelengths beyond the CO2 15 micrometer absorption window. However, WV would absorb these photons, because it has a much wider window starting at about 15 micrometer. 
.
NOTE: A photon, a vibrating package of energy with a wavelength, has no mass, moves at the speed of light in a vacuum, which is many orders of magnitude greater than the speed of molecules
.
At higher elevation, temperature is less, density is less, there are fewer molecules/m^3 or moles/m^3, there are fewer collisions, because molecules are further apart. 
The average kinetic energy of molecules decreases with temperature. See URL
KE avg = 3/2 R*T = 3/2 x (8.314 J / K) * T, where T is in Kelvin.
https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-albany-chemistry/chapter/the-kinetic-molecular-theory/#:~:text=Key%20Concepts%20and%20Summary,the%20mass%20of%20its%20molecules

Reply to  wilpost
January 2, 2025 3:25 pm

CO2 molecules covered in ice?
Have never seen that claim before.
Source?

J Boles
Reply to  wilpost
January 2, 2025 9:35 am

YES! More green, more grain, more food, more salad, more life.

Richard Greene
January 2, 2025 5:02 am

The real story is 192 nations are “in” the Paris Accords, but about 172 of them are there for virtue signaling. The other 20 will never meet their targets. Brazil is one of 172

Three nations, Libya, Yemen and Entrea, have not ratified the agreement.
Google says there are 195 nations in the world. Paris Accords claim 195 members, which would be 192 nations, and the non-nations of EU, Vatican City and Palestine.

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Richard Greene
January 2, 2025 8:40 am

The 172 are not there exclusively for virtue signaling. They have their hands out and are demanding cash.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
January 2, 2025 6:25 pm

^^this.

Reply to  Richard Greene
January 2, 2025 9:06 am

Three nations, Libya, Yemen and Entrea, have not ratified the agreement.”

The US Senate has not ratified it so add the US.
(It requires 2/3 of the Senate to approve.)

Bryan A
January 2, 2025 6:55 am

Once any Caring politician realizes the economic damages being wrought by the Paris Plan, they will either rescind their commitments or likely lose their positions.

john cheshire
January 2, 2025 6:55 am

Why do we, the paymasters of the government, not have a mechanism to remove those servants of ours who are doing us harm?
It should not just be by voting them out, they can do far too much damage between elections.

Reply to  john cheshire
January 2, 2025 2:00 pm

You cannot vote the UN out. You have to vote for people who recognise the harm being caused by UN dictates.

Boff Doff
January 2, 2025 7:38 am

But but but now that vegetable growth is being superturbocharged by pollutants its nutritional value is being degraded!

The Greening of the planet is a Big Oil trick. C02 is poison honestly! We is super cereal! The end is nigh!

January 2, 2025 8:27 am

Economists have told governments that a carbon tax is a valid way of “putting a price on carbon”, but clearly ruination of the country’s economy is a more effective emissions reduction strategy.

MarkW
Reply to  DMacKenzie
January 2, 2025 9:05 am

Since CO2 is a net benefit, by this logic it should be subsidized, not taxed.

mleskovarsocalrrcom
January 2, 2025 8:35 am

COP = make NDC -> Get warm fuzzies for your contribution -> Don’t come close to making NDC -> next COP. Wash, rinse, repeat.

January 2, 2025 9:10 am

Was there ever any doubt that countries, other than suicidal ones, would give lip service only to the ‘Paris Agreement’? Britain and Germany are exceptions. They have dimly lit the path to dying in the cold.

Reply to  whsmith@wustl.edu
January 3, 2025 7:37 am

I have given this a downvote, not because of the content which I agree with but because of the bold type.
Please stop it Mr. Smith.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Oldseadog
January 3, 2025 9:03 am

Same.

Bob
January 2, 2025 1:04 pm

The problem is that there is no penalty for governments or government leaders for lying and cheating. All of that would change if individuals were held responsible.

mleskovarsocalrrcom
Reply to  Bob
January 2, 2025 4:40 pm

The “problem” is believing CO2 from fossil fuels is driving the weather. Holding governments responsible for not meeting their NDCs would only exacerbate the issue.