From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
Cliff Mass
One of the most overused terms used by the media is “atmospheric river”. Yes, even more hyped than “bomb cyclone.” But this week there will be an atmospheric river worth noting…and I will discuss below.
Atmospheric River Overuse
Although the term, atmospheric river, was first used in the late 1990s, the phenomenon was well-known for decades before that: a plume of warm, moist air leading cold fronts associated with midlatitude cyclones.
Virtually every midlatitude cyclone/low center has such a plume of moist air. To see how omni-present atmospheric rivers are, below is map from today of the plumes of water vapor (red and orange colors) and heights at 700 hPa pressure (think of this as pressure at 10,000 ft). LOTS of atmospheric rivers, with most associated with low centers and their associated fronts.
But not all atmospheric rivers are equal in magnitude.
This week some particularly strong ones will aim at northern California and southern Oregon, releasing intense precipitation as the moisture-laden area is forced to rise by the regional terrain.
One of the best measures of atmospheric river strength is integrated water vapor transport (IVT), which is calculated by determine how much water vapor is being transported by the atmospheric river over a period of time (essentially wind speed times water vapor content of the air).
Here is a plot of IVT on Wednesday evening. WOW…that is quite an atmopsheric river!
The result or this atmospheric river and some weaken cousins this week, will be massive rainfall on the West Coast.
For the 72 h ending 4 PM Thursday, there will be massive precipitation totals predicted (by the UW model) from northern CA through BC, with northern CA/SW Oregon getting hit hardest (over 5 inches).
Here are the totals through the end of the year from the European Center model. Many locations will enjoy over a foot of rain.
Remember all the talk of permanent drought in CA during the global warming.
Well, such predictions have not worked out well.
Most California reservoirs are above normal right now….and that is before the big rains this week (see the proof below). Reservoir levels will surge with all the upcoming rain.
Snowpack is in good shape for the entire Wast Coast. (see below).
In short, water supply looks excellent for the upcoming year.
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“In short, water supply looks excellent for the upcoming year.”
Great, they will be able to keep a couple of “smelt” alive by wasting vast amounts of water out to sea, and starving the farmers. !!
Things are going to change, even in California, with Trump in office for four years!
Delta smelt have not been seen in the delta since 2018.
Yes, but they still release huge amounts of water to save it !!
Maybe they all drowned.
California has successfully manufactured a permanent drought emergency. You watch, the first cut for water allocations in 2025 will be in the 15% range and eventually raised to circa 40%.
“Whiskey is fer drinkin’. Water is fer fightin’ over.”
Maybe the start of another California megaflood? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/12/climate/california-rain-storm.html
Now they’ll be having mudslides, and still blame CO2.
I took Geology 101 as a UC Berkeley undergraduate during the unusually wet winter of 1969. We took field trips out into the hills to see deepening gullies, recent landslides, and also the marks on the landscape of repeated landslides and floods since time immemorial.
The geology prof explained to us that California’s entire, pan-flat Central Valley, the size of New Hampshire and Vermont placed end-to-end, was formed over eons by repeated, massive mudslides and floods that eroded the Sierra Nevada mountains, and deposited silt in the valley.
The Central Valley was smoothed and flattened by occasional floods that covered thousands of square miles at a time some years. Its high fertility comes largely from the mineral richness of decomposed, pulverized, mountain rocks.
But I took that course a long time ago, before science became so politicized, before carbon was poison, before every unusual event foreshadowed doomsday, and before every discontent in the world could be addressed by suing ExxonMobil or Chevron, and/or throwing hissy fits on city streets. We didn’t know that screeching into TV cameras could change weather for the better 100 years from now.
Science was actually about gathering facts, and analyzing how the natural world got this way. Hard to imagine now, but true — and within the span of this writer’s lifetime.
“One of the most overused terms used by the media is “atmospheric river”. Yes, even more hyped than “bomb cyclone.””
I’m 56, up until just a couple of years ago everyone (including weather forecasters) called it a “Pineapple Express” guess that just wasn’t scary enough for the media.
Yes. I’d never heard the term “atmospheric river” until a few years ago.
From Grok2 (X AI):
The term “atmospheric river” was coined in the early 1990s by researchers Reginald Newell and Yong Zhu from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). They used this term to describe narrow bands of intense water vapor transport in the atmosphere, which they likened to rivers due to their elongated and narrow shape.
They could have coined the acronym “NBIWVT” instead. A river connotes a water flow confined within physical banks. If an “NBIWVT” breaks out of its ‘banks’ does it become an “atmospheric flood”? Is a rain event covering half the state of, say, Minnesota an “atmospheric lake?” Are the little cottonpuffs floating around on a summer day “atmospheric ponds?” Is a sheet of cirrus clouds the world’s largest “atmospheric skating rink?” Are contrails stretching across the horizon “atmospheric canals?”
If there’s one thing I wish our side would not do is cede the moral high ground to the enviro zealots and their sycophant propaganda news media pals by freely using misnomer terms such as bomb cyclone / ocean acidification / atmospheric river.
“Rainy spell” just doesn’t pack the same punch.
Media must compete for eyeballs. The punchier the jargon, the better. Temperate language? Pffft. Who needs that? Nobody gets the Pulitzer Prize, an Academy Award, or advances to fame and fortune by using temperate language.
Maybe “Pineapple Express” was deemed to be cultural appropriation or racist or some other variation of offense that wokeism could lay claim to?
When it was called “Pineapple Express” the fruit was a major crop in Hawaii. In the 1930s it was the top producer in the world. In the 1980s that started to change and today production is only about 10% of world total.
What is the State famous for now? We could start a new name.
Hawaiiono.
When I first moved to California in the early 90’s, what is now termed atmospheric river was then called a Pineapple Express.
At least they aren’t naming them. (Yet!)
Atmospheric River Phoenix?
Thanks Cliff.
Hmmmm…. Do you think the “Lake Central Valley” will come back?
“One of the most overused terms used by the media is “atmospheric river”. Yes, even more hyped than “bomb cyclone.” ”
Are there any other terms like those? Somebody should them all together in a sarcastic way for our humor. 🙂
The weather pattern currently in place is keeping the jet stream up around the northern U.S. border, which means everything south of there is experiencing nice, warm (for this time of year) weather. No arctic fronts in sight.
Keep it coming, I say!
The coldest part of our year is around January 15. Let’s see what it looks like then.
It’s a better business proposition for alarmists if doomsday does not arrive. If doomsday did arrive, the audiences and the doomsayers would dry up. (pun intended)
If doomsday might arrive, but fails to arrive, that works out best. Alarmists can keep the worrywarts on tenterhooks, and media can prosper. Plus, worrywarts can spend entire lifetimes fretting over things that never happen. It confers meaning upon empty lives.
People who prefer to go about their lives without throwing hairy canaries over remote risks will come up short, but that’s to be expected. Staying calm and carrying on is not media-friendly nor meddler-friendly.
Xmas down under-
Flooding cuts off roads, more rainfall on its way
Residents evacuate as bushfire continues to burn north-west of Melbourne
It’s a big island continent but don’t let that deter the doomsters