by Sallust
It’s Toytown basic economics that the price of any commodity or service is determined by the relationship between supply and demand. The less there is of anything, the higher its price will be, depending on the level of demand. The greater the level of supply the lower the price, and thus the greater the demand and usage.
Nothing could exemplify that better than energy. Restricting the supply of energy whether by design or circumstance, or even elevating the price artificially with taxes and levies, is bound to inhibit demand. And that diminishes the economy.
The Telegraph has published an article by Jonathan Leake on how Net Zero has accelerated Britain’s national decline:
For Ed Miliband and Sir Keir Starmer, Net Zero is the route to clean energy, economic growth and turning the U.K. into a global green superpower.
Across the Atlantic, however, Britain’s drive for “decarbonisation” is increasingly seen as an economic experiment – one that risks tipping the U.K. from miniscule economic growth into full-scale decline.
Chris Wright, Donald Trump’s nominee for US energy secretary, has warned that Britain’s rush to ditch fossil fuels in favour of wind and solar power is causing higher prices, driving away energy-intensive businesses and contributing to Britain’s national decline.
“The U.K., although no longer part of the EU, has continued aggressive climate policies that have driven up energy prices for its citizens and industry,” he wrote in a recent report. “The once world-leading United Kingdom now has a per capita income lower than even the poorest state in the United States.”
Leake doesn’t dispute the effects of climate change or “other consequences of greenhouse gas emissions”. His main point is that a key part of Net Zero policy is to reduce energy usage, but only in Britain. How much less?
To quote the Government’s advisory Climate Change Committee: “In our Balanced Net Zero Pathway, the U.K. economy becomes much more energy efficient, with total energy demand falling by around 33% in end-use sectors between now and 2050.”
Improved efficiency – delivering more output for the same amount of fuel, or less – could help to deliver a reduction in energy consumption. Yet huge advances would be necessary to yield a reduction in consumption of a third. Many observers believe the tail will wag the dog when it comes to this target, meaning the U.K. may be forced to curtail energy use in order to hit it.
For Wright and others, slashing energy consumption by a third and still expecting growth is heresy – an economic experiment no other country has achieved, or even attempted before.
Their view – one supported by most economists – is that access to energy has historically always been directly related to prosperity. The more energy we have, the richer we will become. And if we have less, we get poorer.
Britain’s Industrial Revolution, driven by cheap and abundant coal, is proof, Wright says, of the theory. But with decline in energy usage now far advanced, it’s clear the prioritising of climate targets is having a drastic impact on Britain’s wealth and productive capacity.
In 1970, U.K. industry consumed the equivalent of 62 million tonnes of oil each year, making most of what the nation needed including energy intensive products like steel, cement and petrochemicals. Manufacturing was by far the largest sector of the economy, contributing 30.1% of total output.
Last year, manufacturing accounted for just 9% of the U.K.’s economy.
The point is that a key part of Net Zero policy is to reduce energy usage, but only in Britain. Other countries don’t matter because it’s all about the U.K. Government’s climate policy.
For example, one of the U.K.’s proudest boasts is that it has slashed emissions from more than 800 million tonnes in 1990 to just under 400 million tonnes in 2023. These figures refer to the greenhouse gases emitted within Britain’s borders, from power stations, vehicles, homes, offices and industry.
However, it excludes all the emissions generated from things we buy from abroad, including cars, clothes, steel and cement. Such “consumption emissions” have grown, from under 200 million tonnes of CO2 in 1990 to 400 million tonnes today
If you add our overseas and domestic emissions together, the overall U.K. carbon footprint is about 800 million tonnes. This is only a slight decrease from 1990 and the U.K. has paid a pretty high price to achieve it, including continuing high energy prices and increased vulnerability to global price shocks and shortages.
“The U.K. has too little production, too much consumption, too little savings and too much debt,” Dieter Helm, Professor of Energy Economics at Oxford University, wrote recently. “Perhaps not surprisingly, since it takes time for the politics to catch up with the economics, the new Labour Government is in the process of doubling down on all four of these.
“Current (and proposed) economic policy is perpetuating an unsustainable economy. What is unsustainable will not be sustained. It will have to end, probably in a series of economic crises played out into the future. The next generation will pay the price.”
Leake goes on to explain that the U.K. is not the U.S. and does not have abundant supplies of energy on its doorstep. Britain is dependent on imports.
The key conflict then is between replacing old sources of energy with new ones or simply reducing energy consumption. Britain is steadily running down its oil-refining and steel-manufacturing capacity.
For Miliband, falling energy consumption is a sign of progress rather than an ominous portent. A spokesman for the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero said: “Making the U.K. a clean energy superpower is essential to end the U.K.’s dependency on insecure fossil fuel markets.”
Exactly where we are headed is therefore not clear. It’s also a moot point whether any government can survive enforcing a vision of the future with policies that seem destined to make people poorer, more immobile, colder, hungrier, and with less and less choice in the matter.
Readers may remember the irony of this pronouncement five-and-a-half years ago:
“We will be able to look back on this period – this extraordinary period – as the beginning of a new golden age for our United Kingdom.”
Boris Johnson, statement to the Commons July 25th 2019
He was right about it being an extraordinary period.
The Telegraph piece is worth reading in full.
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In 1970 … Manufacturing was by far the largest sector of the economy,
contributing 30.1% of total output.
Last year, manufacturing accounted for just 9% of the U.K.’s economy.
_________________________________________________________
One has to assume that the people running the show know this yet they
continue down the same path. What’s that definition of insanity again?
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting
different results.
According to a large number of inspirational mugs and posters, this
famous quote comes from none other than Albert Einstein. However,
there’s no evidence at all that Einstein ever said it
I don’t think this is an unexpected outcome Steve. Net zero will relentlessly cause deindustrialisation, a stated aim of the alarmists. Net Zero will also lead to depopulation which is another desired outcome of the alarmists. This is being driven by people well above our pay grade and will ultimately cover the entire democratic and market economies around the world.
Judging by the meagre birth rates we see in many countries this is already underway. Remember the assertion from UN big brains that the ideal carrying capacity of Earth is 500m people. As I say none of this is happening by accident but it is happening slowly enough to not raise any alarms.
0f course the UN big brains believe that they deserve to be part of the 500m remainers!
Absolutely right, Keitho. This is not incompetence, but deliberate policy. The deliberate policy of all four wings of what I call the Tyranny Party. This cannot end well for most of us.
UK Net zero is a suicide pact
Our flora and fauna needs much higher CO2 ppm to THRIVE, as proven in greenhouses
Our current low level of CO2 ppm requires fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides and lots of machinery, to raise crop yields/acre to feed people
The U.K. illegally imports Third World, unskilled, inexperienced, culturally different people from all over each year.
There people have high birth rates.
The native U.K. people, with very low birth rates, will not recognize the traditional essence of their country, if this continues, and if not reversed.
This has greatly diminished UK social cohesion, national purpose, and increased indebtedness, dysfunction, amorality, Hollywood style diversion and frivolity, etc.
France and Germany have the same problem
The US was getting there on steroids, due to the leftist, socialist Democrat cabal pulling the strings of their puppet Biden.
This will finally be stopped and reversed by the Trump team to MAGA and MAHA
I have to correct you. People from ‘3d world’countries and who are culturally predisposed to have large families usually come from rural areas where large families make sense. But when they move to urbanised areas their offspring often chose to have fewer children as they become an expensive asset. What im really saying is that yes, cultural background is an important factor but it doesnt trump the economic element.
Having said that it is also worthwhile to note that, longterm, immigration is a net negative to a country in terms of economic impact as they use the same recources as everyone else..
Wind and solar also are net negatives, if all costs, including electrical system and grid disturbance costs, are considered, and costing is from mine to hazardous waste
I’ve long considered that people in developed countries have the wealth to do something in their spare time than, shall we say, knock boots. If so, the best way to control population might be to see that those in the 3rd world can entertain themselves by some other means. I don’t expect our “elite” to allow that to happen, but there you are.
I think you’re right, they are perfectly willing to let you die for their beliefs. And of course, after all of Germany’s success with net zero, what could go wrong?
Once something becomes obvious, many people are saying something about it.
Unfortunately, ‘many people’ have been slow to see the obvious and are also slow to say anything to those creating the problems.
Complaining around the kitchen table has no effect
Falling emissions in the UK equate to rising emissions in China.
In the 1970s I could buy parts to make things from dozens of UK companies. Today I have to use Aliexpress.
It’s political sleight of hand. Pretending that we are ‘reducing emissions’.
Same for Wokeachusetts. The state brags that its now the most energy efficient state. But it’s due to having exported almost all industries. The state’s economy is now dependent on its many colleges, world class hospitals, software and tourism. There are few blue collar jobs remaining. The cost of living is extremely high. In the Boston area, a “starter home” will cost you at least 500K. Roads and bridges are deteriorating. We now have so many illegals it’s costing the state over a billion dollars/year.
Crime is down in Central America.
Crime is down in the Third World and up in the Developed World.
The extremist, unelected, EU Brussels bureaucrats want to export their dysfunctional world to more and more countries, by violent color revolution and sanctions, if necessary, such as in Ukraine in 2014, and in Georgia in 2024, for geo-political “projects”
Add to that the emissions of the ships and planes transporting to and from those far away places.
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting
different results.”
Still disagree. To me, that’s the definition of stupidity. Meaning one isn’t learning from one’s mistakes.
The UK sits on abundant supplies of coal and gas. The UK Govt has decided not to mine or frack due to green policies, even with oil supplies reducing from the North sea it has chosen to leave what’s left untouched. We are led by idiots of the Uni party.
The UK does not sit on either. Its coal is mined out to the point of not being worth mining and the gas requires expensive fracking.
I agree we should be extracting the gas m but it only took 20 years to pluck all the low hanging fruit of North Sea gas.
Examine the decline in output of the coal mines over the years. This is not political. This is physical
If subsidies for wind and solar, and restrictions on coal were removed, coal mining would be profitable in the U.K.
No, it wouldn’t.
Coal was in decline long before renewables.
US coal is cheap. UK coal became simply too expensive – and if you had ever been down a UK coal mine you would see why.
Coal power stations using Polish or US coal would be economical. Not using British coal.
Union rules?
Rubbish. There’s hundreds of years worth of coal under this country. Those mine closures were entirely political, or “economic”. They were closed because the government wanted to switch energy production to gas, which was less fraught with union activity.
Ther is no economic coal under this country.
That is why the mines closed.
It was both political and economic. It is impossible to ignore economic part of it.
Some day, when cheap coal deposits are exhausted globally, the remaining deep coal deposits may become more competitive again. But it is going to be hundreds of years from now.
They were closed because the government was tired of subsidizing them.
That chart shows jobs, nothing about the amount of coal that can be mined. You could show the same chart for buggy whip employees and it doesn’t mean we ran out of leather. The UK may have mined all their coal, but this chart does nothing to support that fact.
Then spare a thought for the Netherlands. They have voluntarily shut down their natural gas recources, the biggest field in Europe and obene of the biggest factor in post ww2 prosperity. Insane, it breaks my dutch heart. And all for some damage done by tremors because of the state gas company’s negligence. Concrete poured down the shafts.
However, that wont stop them opening them up again after some real tough economic downturns and hardship. It is only a matter of time. The issue now is what to do with the extensive gas pipeline. It seems they want to push hydrogen..
Because UK coal was too expensive, Margaret Thatcher used green policies to justify stopping coal mining subsidies. In retrospect, it might be better for the UK to subsidize its own coal production rather than wind and solar, but there is no abundance of cheap coal in the UK. Cheap coal is extracted by open excavation. Deep coal mines cannot compete, particularly in developed countries.
The real solution to UK energy problems would be nuclear and import of natural gas from Norway as well as import of cheaper coal from whatever source.
Curious:
Liz Kendal the minister who cut the £300 winter fuel allowance, lives in a £4M house. She has a small terraced house in her Leicestershire constituency. She’s claimed around £350/mo nearly £4K/yr for energy use.
Since when does a ‘tiny’ terraced house need that heating/lighting?
Especially when she’s not there a lot of the time when Parliament is sitting.
Ben, you’ve just thickened the plot!
My suspicions are increasing.
How can the decline accelerate when industry is dead.
There are still a lot of small manufacturer employing people in the UK. How long they last is the question. The Inheritance Tax changes affect small family manufacturing companies as well as farmers
Tax small, family owned farms and businesses out of existence; what could go wrong with relying on the charity strangers for your food and goods!? Maybe the UK pols are hoping to qualify for the generous donations from the developed nations due to climate change!
I’m probably going to attract a lot of hate and down-votes for this, but here goes…
I am fairly confident the chancellor withdrew the inheritance tax relief on small farms for the reason she gave. I am equally confident she is wrong about how few farms will suffer unintentionally. She did a botch job of it. She just needed to make farmland illiquid to achieve her policy goal and she’s actually done something very different. But she may have accidentally done something else that really did need doing.
In the 21st century, a cottage industry patchwork of tiny farms cannot feed us efficiently. It is quaint and charming and those for whom the family farm is a vocation find fulfillment. But it is no way to feed the nation. Industrial mega-farms could do a better job.
I will regret the passing of picturesque little family farms like I regret putting down a much-loved elderly dog, but my rational self knows it’s for the best.
The Danish cow fart tax is coming to help farming in the UK
I would never start a business in the UK today.
A disgruntled employee claiming some sort of abuse getting legal aid and destroying your company because they got sacked for being lousy at their job.
Ten thousand petty regulations that require a full time H & S officer to ensure compliance, that you simply cannot afford.
Big companies use this to raise the barrier of entry for small ones.
I gave up. I worked in my family business for thirty years, it was a daily struggle. After my father died, I survived another couple of years before I managed to sell up and move to the USA. Life is better here.
Decline has many causes and facets
It requires a particular mental condition to imagine the scenario, where you reduce all your power and still try to convince yourself you will become a ‘super power’?
Only someone who finds eating a bacon sandwich a challenge, could conceive of such an outcome.
Boris Johnson—a man who I am sure can engulf multiple bacon sandwiches in a trice—has spoken of the UK becoming the “Saudi Arabia of wind”.
The whole political class is deranged, not just the lefty bacon-fumbler.
Be fair about the bacon sandwich. I dislike the man as much as you do, but he is Jewish.
He should be wearing a yarmulke to hide his ugly mop and a mask to hide his ugly face, and deported to a small island in the Pacific.
I know various jewish people who love a bit of bacon now and then. They just wont tell anyone..
Making the UK a clean energy superpower is…a fever dream! Maybe Parliament can rescind the Laws of Thermodynamics and other pesky basics of physics! Or support unicorn farm startups!
It is a political slogan to get and keep command/control over people
The U.K., although no longer part of the EU…
Shadows and even tries to beat the EU – 2030 not 2040 etc. We all get our instructions from the UNhinged.
And the French. Stock Market decline and threat to the stability of government is added to by the problems with Stellantis occasioned by electric vehicle manufacture and the closing of the Vauxhall plant at Luton.
The UK people got screwed by open borders and curtailment of speech. A serious investigation and litigation of the NGOs and sources of funding to who paid for the millions of people who were transplanted there needs to be done. Same goes for Canada and the USA. The hollowing out of their manufacturing capability is a compounding factor in the problem. High energy prices will rob the middle class of whatever discretionary income they had left. It’ll be a corruptocracy of elites and the real UK citizens will be under a dual tyranny of their government and foreign gangs who will act mostly without interference from that government. What a hellhole they have socio-engineered.
From the article:””Leake doesn’t dispute the effects of climate change or “other consequences of greenhouse gas emissions”.”
If saving millions from drowning in rising seas, or frying due to over heated air, or catching some incurable tropical disease isn’t sufficient to applaud net zero then mayhaps Mr. Leake should examine the claims more closely and start disputing some.
Saving millions is far better than having high energy costs. /s
That’s not a bug, it’s a feature.
I think the next 5 years we will see a total economical collapse. We’re beyond the turning point. If you want to safe something? 1 remove green deal, 2 build gas and coal powerplants and 3 deregulate. It takes at least 5 years, then you can see what’s left of you industry. What’s gone is gone forever.
EU same path but different path. In 2029 strong upcoming right wing parties but no majority, or dirty tricks to keep them out. We will see EU bonds with another 5 year plan that’s just a waste of money. Budget cuts need to be made as people are too poor to pay taxes. When money transfers stop going to eastern Europe those with already lower living standards will revolt. The EU will disband and the euro will be gone by 2040.
Germany and UK are the first to go, when black outs happen, the rest knows they’re up next.
Great Britain should have abundant tight gas, as much of the island are coalfields. But like nuclear, fracking has been demonized by The Green Blob, so any real exploitation is considered doubleplus ungood.
In my youth I had a thing for British motorcycles and sports cars. I bought my
bikes new and my brother and I got the TR’s from a boneyard and rebuilt them
from the frame up. There were some times living on the edge on some mountainous backroads.
Sad to read what the Brits industries have become these days,
The UK looks to be in the grip of a sort of collective insanity – or at least, the political and media class is. The population as a whole, outside of some circles in the university towns and in North London and Edinburgh, appears to be uninfected, and increasingly inclined to vote Reform. But the media and political establishment?
Barking mad the lot of them! Whether its sex and gender, something they call ‘race’ (whatever that is) or in the present case about energy generation.
On energy and transport their idea appears to be to build huge amounts of intermittent generation off the north coasts of the UK, and then pay the operators not to generate because there is no demand for the power within reasonable reach. At the same time, to convert everyone to heat pumps and EVs, thus doubling demand. To close down gas and nuclear dispatchable generation. And to put their auto industry out of business by fining it for making too many of the products that people actually are willing to buy.
Mad. As the inevitable blackouts start in the next few years, and the auto industry closes down, watch out, not for Farage, but for his successor. This is turning into a Weimar scenario.
Faced with all this, what is Parliament doing? Debating legalizing assisted suicide. What is their health service doing? Maintaining a waiting list for treatment of some 8 million people, while abolishing single sex changing rooms and toilets, eliminating anesthetics containing miniscule amounts of greenhouse gases and trying to ban the use of terms like ‘mother’ and ‘breast feeding’!
Its like watching what Russell describes during the fall of Rome. The best and brightest minds sitting in their villas while the frontiers collapsed, debating the exact definition of virginity. All collapses of civilizations start with cultural collapses, and we are in the middle of one right now.
Lemmings?
All the Western countries need to step back from Net Zero, take a deep breath and answer this question. “WHY?”
It is hard for me to understand how leaders can be so ignorant. The bad things that are happening aren’t happening by accident they are planned. The British people can’t sit on their backsides hoping their leaders will somehow change. They won’t. If things are going to get better it will only happen if the everyday guy makes it happen. Get up and do something about it.
If the UK reduce their energy production with a subsequent reduction in manufacturing output, how does this qualify them as a “clean energy superpower“?
Self-aggrandisement in the extreme, I suggest