News Brief by Kip Hansen — 20 November 2024
Very briefly, mostly in one video and one image. This is what a Bomb Cyclone looks like:
I would not want to be at sea, in any sized vessel, off the Washington coast in this:
The shipping news service, gCaptain says:
“A powerful weather system is set to explode off the U.S. West Coast, bringing with it hurricane-force winds and massive wave heights.”
“The rapidly intensifying low-pressure system is expected to create treacherous conditions for shipping and coastal communities alike.
“The National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Force Wind Warning, indicating the severity of the impending storm. “A very strong area of low pressure will be intensifying to the W of the outer waters later Tue and Tue night and pass along or just W of the waters as it moves N of the waters later Tue night into Wed.” forecasters warn.”
….
“Key developments in the storm’s progression include:
- Initial Formation: The low-pressure system, currently at 1013 MB, is moving eastward at 40 knots and rapidly intensifying.
- Rapid Intensification: Within 24 hours, the system is forecast to deepen to 980 MB, with winds reaching 50 to 65 knots in some quadrants.
- Peak Intensity: By the 36-hour mark, the low is expected to reach a staggering 942 MB, with winds of 55 to 75 knots (63-86 mph) within 180 NM of its southern semicircle.
- Massive Waves: Sea conditions are predicted to deteriorate rapidly, with waves building to an staggering 24 to 34 feet in height.“
“The impact on shipping will be significant. Vessels in the affected area should expect extremely hazardous conditions. “Winds 55 to 75 KT. Seas 24 to 34 FT,” the forecast warns for the most severe part of the storm.“
“This “bomb cyclone” – a term used when a storm’s central pressure drops at least 24 millibars in 24 hours – poses a serious threat to maritime operations. Ship captains and crew members are advised to take all necessary precautions and consider altering routes to avoid the most dangerous areas of the storm.“
Copy that.
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Author’s Comment:
When I first took to sailing Caribbean waters, the only weather charts I could get were the National Weather Service Wind and Waves. Via SSB radio modem to my printer. And then, only sometimes. Thankfully, we never got anything that looked like the one in the essay.
Hang tight up there.
Thanks for reading.
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There are something like 700,000 customers (homes and businesses, not people) without power right now in the Puget Sound area. You can see the outage map for Puget Sound Energy at https://www.pse.com/outage/outage-map, but that’s only maybe half of the outages in the area (it doesn’t include Seattle Power and Light or other public utility districts). I’m really happy we put in a natural gas backup generator in preparation for Y2K!
those with home batteries will soon find out they arent designed for long outages and in many cases if solar powered need grid charging when flat
Following on your comment, wonder what the effects on solar panels (grid-scale or private, maybe flying off roofs) and wind turbines will be in this area.
That’s why I have a battery inverter that takes a generator feed as well as solar.
It knocked out my power last night, but my generator kicked in. And my electronics are protected by several UPSs. The only problem was the generator was really loud, so I turned if off at midnight. Also my cable went down, no TV, no internet. But it did keep my refrigerators and freezers cold. My power came on at 9am, but my daughter’s still is out.
See https://poweroutage.us/ . Drilling down to King County (Seattle, etc), it reports 26.8% customers off,
Puget Sound Energy: Customers: 571,344, out: 276,463
Seattle City Light: Customers: 495,56, out: 211,6022
😉
(But TheMouthX wants to tax imports – that natural gas comes from NE BC, via a border crossing in the Sumas WA area. :-o)
This appears to be a fairly typical seasonal west coast storm. Surface pressure of 970 mb compared to an average 1013 mb is not that unusual – BOMB or not. It would also be a run-of-the-mill Nor’easter.
Are we now doomed exclamations of ‘Bomb’ after ‘Bomb’?
Bomb typhoons, tornadoes, thunderstorms, and even mid-latitude cyclones?
We cannot all live in Tahiti, and even there they get a typhoon from time to time (as in 1982) when they experienced several.
I lived along the Columbia River in SW Washington state for 8 years (long ago) and these sorts of storms occur very often in late November to Mid December or so. The Columbus day storm of 1963 is a notable example well remembered, although not accurately, by many old-timers. I produced a short write up found here after people referred to these as “hurricanes” in all but name. Actually they lack a warm core so are not hurricanes at all, but do have hurricane-like wind/wave height conditions and damage. For example, one that I experienced during my residence there loosed a marina on the Oregon side of the river and drove it onto the Washington side. Others left houseboats listing badly or sunk.
That’s a great article Kevin links to – worthy of a full WUWT article in my opinion.
Ric
The ‘Columbus Day Storm’ of 1962 was referred to as a typhoon as it crossed the Pacific, a rare occurrence. Normal ‘hurricanes’ do occur on the west coast of NA, often near Mexico but rarely get far. ‘Cyclone’ is a usual term for the same thing in the southern Pacific. Whatever, the question is strength of winds. In this case they were from the east.
Thanks for correcting the year 1962 not 1963. The phrase “hurricane in all but name” came from a WSJ article about one such storm in December 1995. When I began research on the Columbus day storm, I found there were actually two storms separated by about ten days, and thought people might have conflated the two storms into one. Finally, do you have a reference to the Columbus day storm being called a “typhoon”?
Right now I can’t even access my own article over the security certificate failure…
whsmith ==> Gee, “typical”? 55 to 75 knots (63-86 mph) winds and 24 to 34 feet seas?
It is true that the media just love to use the term “bomb” because it sounds so terrible, well, like a bomb!
But this is a tremendous storm and truly awe inspiring.
Technically, an extremely rapid drop in the core pressure. But, yes, a choice of word to be emotionally disturbing, not scientifically accurate.
More technically, a drop of at least 24 mb in 24 hours. I first heard the term vis-a-vis nor’easters in New England, especially Feb 1978 (great storm!) but IIRC the term was coined before then.
Our power, Vancouver Island, went out at 2000 Tuesday and stayed out until 0130 Thursday. It was a bit nippy. Generator on the Christmas list.
These November storms do occur often, I was caught in one on a BC Ferry on my way to the Okanagan. In good Naval fashion I had my arm around my breakfast tray as dishes and people went flying.
I had a look at nullschool this morning, there are two other low systems on their way in but no way near as strong. Looks like one will hit the Queen Charlottes (Haida Gwai to you newbies) and the other will hit southern Washington and Oregon.
“Surface pressure of 970 mb …”
Cliff Mass, who seems kinda trustworthy says 943mb.
don ==> Mass is probably just more up-to-date. These storms are “bombs” because the surface pressure keeps dropping rapidly “like a bomb”.
970 mb is significant. About the same as the 1991 “Perfect Storm”. 943 mb is something else again.
At this point however, Washington and Oregon seem to be more or less OK other than massive power outages and a lot of clearing downed trees.
I’m a bit concerned about the rainfall forecasts for Northern California though. That’s a lot of hilly country with towns built in the valleys. Possibly going to be some serious flooding? Fortunately, modern communications will save lives, but potential for a lot of property damage I fear.
IMJ it is a BAD term and does not fit . Pressure change from an exploding bomb is extremely rapid. Trees fall rapidly, landslides proceed rapidly – both resulting in a rapid change of pressure on the ground. (Volcanoes like the one that blasted to the south of Seattle in 1980 can be rapid.)
I’m already sick of all the overly-emotional characterizations of political and climate entities. May the “bomb” just bomb already…
Children just aren’t going to know what bombs are.
I do miss the cherry bombs we played with when I was an older kid!
See https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/29/friday-funny-science-safety-run-amok/ – the comments “degenerated” into many fond reminiscences among those of us with intact fingers.
The shadowy figures behind Old Joe Bribe’em seem to have great interest in showing kids what a real bomb looks like! The conspiracy of morons running the State Department bureaucracy seem more interested in playing nuclear chicken with Putin than finding a path to peace!
The PNW region that this weather event will occur near (where I am today) is 50F. I only hope it adds a little heat. I got used to SW USA temperatures.
Well, here in Tucson right now, we’re at 52F. Not much difference. Although the days have actually been quite warm even for here in November.
United States Lowest Barometric Pressure Records
The lowest pressure ever measured anywhere in the United States (either as a result of a tropical or extra-tropical storm) was a reading of 892 mb (26.34”) at Matecumbe Key, Florida during the Great Labor Day Hurricane of September 2, 1935, the most intense hurricane ever to strike the United States. Here is a list of the lowest pressure readings for extra-tropical storms in the United States by region:
ALASKA: 925 mb (27.31”) Dutch Harbor on 10/25/1977
*LOWER 48 STATES: 952 mb (28.10”) Bridgehampton, New York on 3/3/1914
MIDWEST: 955.2 mb (28.21”) Big, Fork, Minnesota on 10/26/2010
OHIO VALLEY: 956 mb (28.23”) Mount Clemens, Michigan 1/26/1978
WEST COAST: 962 mb (28.40”) Quillayute, Washington on 12/1/1987
“OHIO VALLEY: 956 mb (28.23”) Mount Clemens, Michigan 1/26/1978″
That would have been during “The Great Blizzard of ’78”.
https://www.weather.gov/cle/event_78blizzard
PS I was in west-central Ohio at the time.
I was outside of Boston for the Northeastern United States blizzard of 1978. February 5, 1978. Convinced me to move to Southern California.
The “frying pan – fire” saying comes to mind. 🙂
I was in Marlboro MA, 25 miles west of Boston. It was my all-time favorite drive in the snow, one that can never be exceeded without it being way too dangerous. I’m still in New England.
https://wermenh.com/blizz78.html (my previous link is to an addendum page).
There are (were) signs along the Lake Michigan shore line in the UP of Michigan pointing out areas of downed trees from the that storm. At one time it extended from Central America to Canada.
I call that the Midwest Blizzard of 1978, as I was in the Northeast Blizzard of 1978 a few weeks later. See https://wermenh.com/blizz78a.html for notes on both.
I have some notes on low pressures in the Great Lakes area before the comments of https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/10/35-years-ago-the-witch-of-november-come-stealin/
Canada recorded 950 mb / 28.05 inHg in 1978.
There were two back-to-back really bad blizzards caused by two different weather fronts in ’78.
Ric, I know you know that but some readers might not.
(I don’t recall either being called a “Polar Vortex caused by GAGW” at the time.) 😎
My brother lives in Eugene, Oregon, He monitors daily rainfall, and says 6 inches in the last four days. But wait, what does he know? The official Oregon drought monitor and index, effective as of November 18, says: “…over 64% of Oregon is experiencing moderate drought conditions…abnormally dry conditions have lessened over Western Oregon.”
I’ve been tracking this on windy.com
Family in BC says wind kept them awake all night.
(I suggested a few Tums, but didn’t get a response).
The fronts stop on the California coast. More rain.
Irene ==> That’s the atmospheric river hitting California, right?
Here in the SF bay area it has only been a sprinkle and a stiff breeze.
Yes, the upper low front pulls the “atmospheric river” and this loop in the upper troposphere is very stable.
Winter is coming.
Isn’t 1013mb standard sea level pressure?
Boff Doff ==> Yes: “The standard air pressure at sea level is 1013.25 millibars (mb) or hectopascals (hPa). This is also equivalent to about 14.7 pounds per square inch”
How often do “Bomb Cyclones” occur in the PNW?
Often enough that they’ve been noted for many centuries. Joseph.
From Cliff Mass’ first blog post about this current event –
Native Americans were quite familiar with such events and they had some colorful stories of their origins: suggesting they were the result of a giant thunderbird, which lived high in the Olympic Mountains.
Report from North Seattle:
Life goes on, although this morning I encountered at least three downed trees and 5 traffic signals out. Amazingly, despite the post-election mental health crisis, drivers were stopping and taking turns peacefully without protest.
Correct me if I’m wrong, my impression is that (aside from wanting to to give the impression that it’s something “new”) they call such weather events “bombs” because of how rapidly they form rather than the damage they cause?
Otherwise every tropical storm or hurricane that makes landfall could be called a “bomb”?
Gunga ==> It is a NOAA term:
“Bombogenesis, a term used by meteorologists, occurs when a midlatitude (the latitudes between the tropics and polar regions) cyclone rapidly intensifies, or strengthens, over a 24 hour period. This intensification is represented by a drop in millibars, a measurement of [air] pressure used in meteorology. The intensification required to classify as “bombogenesis” varies by latitude. At 60 degrees latitude, it is a drop of at least 24 millibars (24 hectopascals) over 24 hours. At the latitude of New York City, the required pressure drop is about 17.8 millibars (17.8 hectopascals) over 24 hours.”
“Bombogenesis can happen when a cold air mass collides with a warm air mass, such as air over warm ocean waters. It is popularly referred to as a bomb cyclone.”
Thanks.
I think the front’s here.
How do you know that is the front, and not the back ? 😉
Strangely, my location near Puget Sound, just east of Tacoma had a relatively calm, almost ‘serene’ fall evening. Some rain, wind gusts about 15-20 mph (judged by standing outdoors with the Dachshunds about 930pm). After viewing satellite history, apparently the high country to the southeast of town, including that awe-some peak Mt. Tahoma (Rainier) caused a rain and wind shadow effect for our little corner of (lefty controlled) God’s country. Can’t remember a time where that’s happened in my 66 years, relative chaos all around, and we were spared – this time. Good thoughts and quick insurance settlements to those whose homes and vehicles were smashed by trees.
Regards,
MCR
Michael ==> The doxies are wind speed indicators? What wind speed is indicated if they blow over? My wirehaireds loved high winds — drove them into frenzies of hilarious racing about chasing leaves.
I live on the Southern tip of Africa which used to be called The Cape of Storms and we get some great ones. However I can say that while they are fierce there are none like this one. Thanks for the reporting Kip. Wild times.
Are reservoirs in Northern California ready to receive rainfall of 150 liters per square meter?
Irene ==> We hope so….this time of year the reservoirs are usually a bit low…but the reasons for their state is complicated — they almost all have required flow-throughs, demands for water delivery, and rules about when to begin to drop levels to prepare for winter inflow….
But this year, many are chock a block with water:
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/resapp/RescondMain
It seems to me that the average is sufficient. Nature should not be underestimated.
https://www.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=+31199&fbclid=IwY2xjawGsPJNleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHcvulkq7WJOpUJamvyfZTuoL4MJg7sFu-QTxELUIijIV2Ioj8O_BsuNHLg_aem_ozXLf3fmPhSZYUK6w29_lQ
More precipitatio in northern California. The upper low remains in place. The situation demands attention.
The upper low will remain in operation in California until November 27.
The wind did not hit the Tacoma area too bad close to the sound but my co-worker in Eatonville in the Cascade foothills had some big trees down blocking his driveway temporarily & he just got power back an hour ago.