By P Gosselin
In a recent open letter, researchers warned that a warmer Arctic could lead to cold waves across Northern Europe – due to “complex feedback mechanisms”.
According to Forschung & Wissen here, an international group of renowned scientists recently published an open letter (PDF) stating that the melting of ice in the Arctic could disrupt ocean currents in the Atlantic, and thus have “devastating and irreversible impacts especially for Nordic countries, but also for other parts of the world.”
Source: Open Letter by Climate Scientists to the Nordic Council of Ministers
According to their publication in the journal Nature Communications, October 2024, doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-53401-3, melting of sea ice during the last interglacial significantly impacted the density and salinity of seawater, and thus led to significant changes in ocean currents and heat distribution in the oceans.
The researchers looked at sediment cores collected in the North Sea and reconstructed surface temperatures and salinity and found that these processes have led to a significant drop in temperature in northern Europe.
According to Mohamed Ezat: “Our discovery that the increased melting of Arctic sea ice in the Earth’s past probably led to significant cooling in northern Europe is alarming.”
He adds: “The impacts particularly on Nordic Countries would likely be catastrophic, including major cooling in the region while surrounding regions warm. This would be an enlargement and deepening of the ‘cold blob’ that already has developed over the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and likely lead to unprecedented extreme weather.”
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Time for this one again:
If you’ve been hearing that extreme cold spells like the
one that we’re having in the United States now disprove
global warming, don’t believe it.
. . .
The odds are that we can expect, as a result of global
warming, to see more of this pattern of extreme cold in
the mid-latitudes and some extreme warm in the far north
Dr. John Holdren 2014
What does ‘unprecedented extreme weather’ mean? More snow? More rain? more wind? Drier? Wetter?
Yes
Plus cold, hot, warm, sunny, cloudy, less snow, less rain, etc
“Could”, “would likely” and”probably”.
Maybe, possibly, might…
So the climate tipping points are in line with economists forecasts of <s>2C</s> 1.5C? Bloody clever those economists.
The alarmist climate “scientists” are reallly getting desperate. There must be a COP coming up.
COP29 starts on Nov 11 in Baku. The poor countries will come there begging for billions of the donor countries dollars which they are supposed to use to fight global warming and climate change. The climate scientists (aka the welfare queens in white coats) will also be lobbying for their fair share of the billions of dollars promised by the rich countries.
Yes indeed. See https://rclutz.com/2024/10/31/advance-briefing-for-cop29-baku-2024/
Trump will end that boondoggle by taking the US out of the COP again for 4 years and then Vance for 8 more years, because we need more CO2 for increased greening and mote flora and fauna and less desert.
The world has been getting warmer since 1700, the bottom of the LIA.
That warming also increased CO2 outgassing from the oceans, which hold 50 times more CO2 than the atmosphere
Trump should also end “donations” to the UNFCCC and the IPCC. Do we really need the IPCC?
The Hard Sciences:
They use mathematics and the Scientific Method to formulate, test and prove hypotheses.
Includes physics, chemistry and geology.
The Political Sciences:
They pretend to use the Scientific Method and sometimes even mathematics.
Includes sociology, psychiatry and PoliSci itself.
The Pathological Sciences:
They use mathematics and the Scientific Method; unless the study results contradict their deeply held beliefs and opinions, or the narrative of their major funders; in which case the results are covered up, buried, or destroyed! They don’t have to show them to you, you dirty pleb!
Includes ClimSciFi, nutrition, and medicine in this Age of the Pharmaceutical/Media Complex!
+42 :<)
According to Forschung & Wissen the paper is Ezat, et al., 2024, on last interglacial (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-53401-3), maybe something lost in translation. Alarming. One paragraph from Forschung (auf English research) & Wissen (auf English knowledge)– ”Unsere Entdeckung, dass das verstärkte Schmelzen von arktischem Meereis in der Vergangenheit der Erde wahrscheinlich zu einer signifikanten Abkühlung in Nordeuropa geführt hat, ist alarmierend. Dies erinnert uns daran, dass das Klimasystem des Planeten ein empfindliches Gleichgewicht darstellt, das leicht durch Änderungen in Temperatur und Eisbedeckung gestört werden kann.“
Last line from Ezat, et al., “Our study showcases the complex feedback interactions between a warming climate and Arctic sea ice, and identify the early LIG as a key time interval for data-model intercomparison efforts to better understand and constrain the impacts of a changing cryosphere on regional and global climate.” Right before that “…though in unpredictable ways…”
Geriatric privilege has always been to complain (and make mistakes) but why do they give us so much material to work with. I thought that it was a “warm hole” not a “cold blob” but such T words not in my training, neither this. Letter had 2 pages text, 2 pages signatories, 1 page with 13 references. They must already be geriatric so what will they complain about later? “…the current scientific evidence unequivocally supports unprecedented, urgent and ambitious climate action….” They want the ice back???
It’s not reallya new idea that the gulf stream will stop due to global warming, leading to colder climate in europe.There is a lot lot of energy transported across the globe in those currents.
It’s an idea that is completely wrong
No, it’s not even slightly new. But it still gets touted as another new discovery of doom. Of course, it never happened in the past, and will never happen now, but you won’t let that get in the way of a fearmongering boondoggle, will you?
Get lost, stinking troll.
As often the idea was published it could be debunked.
Mann’s AMOC Collapse Hoax
Likely you’ve heard the recent and previous warnings from Mann and friends about the ocean conveyor belt (including the Gulf Stream) slowing down and freezing us all. With the COP gathering next month, something scary must be proclaimed, and Global Freezing is it, replacing Global Boiling earlier this year. The declaration signed by Mann and 43 other scientists was Open Letter by Climate Scientists to the Nordic Council of Ministers, Reykjavik, October 2024.
You may follows the included links or at least read the presented Abstracts. Good luck 😀
!!!!!
Anthony, please feature this link, it´s a very good one!
Among other jewels
“””our results suggest that the AMOC decline during the 21st century could be overestimated in these models due to the poorly resolved Labrador Current.“””
which is exactly the same problem at least some of the CMIP5 models had:
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/3465/2020/
writes of their differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6
“””Apart from increases in the horizontal and vertical resolution, the EC-Earth model has also substantially changed the representation of aerosols; in particular, it has introduced a more sophisticated description of aerosol indirect effects.”””
(this removed about 25% systematical error from the older model, so it seems there is plenty of it left in the newer ones)
=> IMHO alarmists like Mann try to exploit systematic errors in the models for politics, this should be actually rather easy to point out and maybe even to stop.. if we only had a prominent platform for that . . (WUWT) 🙂
I once read: Models are always wrong, but sometimes they are useful.
What would you call an area of research that constantly makes fantastical claims, but never ends up being right? Climate Science.
The idea that the “Gulf Stream” stops at all is ludicrous. It may turn earlier than it does today but it will continue
Where’s this melting Arctic ice?
“Where’s this melting Arctic ice?”
Currently re-freezing… at a level in the top 5% or so of the last 10,000 years.
There has been basically zero trend in Arctic sea ice extent for at least a decade, maybe two decades
(note haven’t update for min of 2024 yet).
Martha Stewart’s cocktails…
At least you can’t blame ME! I’ve cut way back on margaritas since the summer was so mild, and only used about 0.5 Gigatons in the beer cooler!
This one?
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/?intent=121
Yes, quite remarkable how well it has tracked with 2007 this year:
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph
Was that your point?
Of course, the current minimum extent is FAR ABOVE the minimum extent for most of the last 10,000 years. Only a small amount down from the extreme highs of the LIA and 1979.
And there hasn’t been any trend in the PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume since 2011.
Why is luser such a low-information little chimp?
Consistent with the glaciation window being wide open and the end of the present interglacial in sight.
The requirement for snow is warm oceans producing moisture laden air that ends up over cool land in falll and winter.
Once the ice extent expands, it is hard to get rid of. Ice blocks tend to melt by flowing down to warmer land or calving into oceans.
Eventually all these clowns will realise they are just observing something that has happened regularly over the past million years. The 11,000 year interglacial is in its death throws.
Based on what ???
Meaningless anti-science and totally wonky climate models that have been 120% WRONG on every prediction they have ever made ??
Anyway, current Arctic sea ice levels are still in the top 5 or so percent of the last 10,000 years !
They are talking gibberish.. a very regular “climate cultist” trait.
Note.. Mickey Mann is one of those “climate scientists”, as is Matthew England and a several from Potsdam Asylum…
… so we can assume the rest also have their noses well and truly planted in the climate fund trough. !!
I find it encouraging to see that they have stopped eating all of the the blue crayons.
The Barents Sea is cooling Harald Yndestad https://www.climateclock.no
It isn’t because the ice is melting, but just a long-term cycle that means CO2 warming isn’t working. These quacks are hedging their bets.
An international team of pre-owned scientists has decided that the laws of thermodynamics have no place in their investigations.
Here’s some logic to the argument:
That’s the argument.
The question is whether the facts stack up.
Ad 1. The mythical polar warming is, thermodynamically speaking, nonsense. Therefore the rest, build on that erroneous assumption is invalid.
One such even has just happened over Spain.
Again. Unless you are claiming there have never been floods in Spain before.
complex feedback mechanisms
Or in plain language: confected bolleaux.
Cakism at its worst, if its warm is Catastrophic Climate Change, if its cold then its still CCC.
Every scenario is possible so the hypothesis can never be disproved.
Cakism is a term that describes the desire to do or have two good things at the same time, even though it’s not possible. It comes from the phrase “to have your cake and eat it too”
“Let them eat cats!” Kamala Antoinette and King Joey the Demented!
So you see ladies and gentlemen, the warmer it gets, the colder it is. Thank you for attending this Ministry of Truth lecture.
Ah! The old ‘melting ice’ tipping point that never occurred before when temperatures we warmer than today. Such a little cutie! It gets dusted off every few years when cold waves happen.
Does this mean the science is not settled?
No, it is settled that injecting a non-condensing GHG such as CO2 beyond the natural carbon cylces ability to store it, will result in the biosphere warming.
That is what scince has settled.
Like most things in life there are vast nuances involved with how that unfolds … which (obviously) are not settled.
“will result in the biosphere warming.”
Complete BS, as usual. That little pice is actually totally unsubstantiated.
Warming by atmospheric CO2 has never been observed or measured anywhere on the planet.
Where is your empirical scientific evidence for warming by atmospheric CO2 ??
Please can you tell us what the upper limit of the natural carbon cycle to store carbon dioxide actually is and how do we know that?
This twaddle all comes from the usual climate “science” circular logic. When they tune the models, they have a vast number of parameters that they can twiddle to get model output to match climate of the recent past. But there is only one driving factor behind all of the parameters – CO2. So no matter what patterns occur in the past history that they are matching, every single one of them is ultimately driven by CO2. NB. We’re talking models here, not real climate. So when the past climate has cold spells, those cold spells are driven by CO2 and the same parameters that match the cold spells of the past then predict similar cold spells in future. So ….. all predicted future cold spells are driven by CO2!
There were big cold spells last winter in the NH, and maybe there are signs that they will come again this winter, so the alarmists are preparing their excuses.
Actually, although I say above that the parameters “predict similar cold spells in future”, I suspect that that isn’t really how it works. I suspect that they keep twiddling their parameters as observations diverge from model predictions, so they don’t actually predict a future cold spell until they see one coming. Or maybe they do a just-in-case run with a cold spell in it. And then they find, of course, that that mooted cold spell is caused by CO2.
The twaddle comes from the twiddles, so ….. drum roll ….. it’s all twiddle twaddle.
When I put logs on my fire. it gets very chilly indoors.
It’s the execrable “The Day After Tomorrow” Movie Effect, again!
THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW – some comments on the movie
The film shows a disastrous and abrupt climate change. Due to man-made global warming, first the Larsen B ice shelf breaks up (this did happen in the real world, see animation of satellite images – allegedly only after the authors had written it into the film). This event is used to introduce the main paleo-climatologist character, Jack Hall, who is drilling out there and narrowly escapes.
Rahmstorfs thougts about that movie…
If climate scientists cannot explain these “complex feedback mechanisms” to young children then they clearly do not understand them themselves (as Einstein reminded us). The fact is meteorology as a true science has been knocked completely off course by the politics of human caused warming and it is about time those responsible for this in academia and elsewhere were made to pay for their incompetence by being sacked.
And, as AI is so clever, how come it cannot do the daily weather for a number of cities for the whole of 2025 before the New Year starts and achieve, say, fifty percent accuracy?
I can do 50% accuracy quite easily:
The chance of it being warmer tomorrow is 50%.
The chance of it being colder tomorrow is 50%.
Because ‘Climate Scientology ™’, the chance of it being the same temperature tomorrow as today is also 50%.
See? Simples!
I can predict with absolute, 100% certainty that the weather in every city in America will be different than the historical average. It will be warmer or clder, wetter or dryer, sunnier or clouding, and change throughout the day continuously. I’d be happy to build a model that will show that for . . . . $10 million? Is that too low?
Complex feedback factors, huh? I call BS.
They invent “complex feedback mechanisms” while ignoring the most important negative feedback in the universe. If you were to retain heat in the atmosphere to raise the temp of the earth 1% (3K) (relatively constant specific heat), then the heat radiated out would rise by 4% (1.01^4)
So the warm ocean currents melt the ice. Melting ice releases fresh water disrupting ocean currents. Less warm currents bring cold temps, causes cooling. Seems logical this would reduce melting ice, thus less current disruption. This process seems self correcting.
The liberal/progressive/democrat/socialist playbook from 1989 remains in force:
The late Stephen Schneide made the statement, “…we need to get some broad-based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of the doubts we might have. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.”
Stephen Schneider made that statement in an interview with Discover Magazine in October 1989. Detroit News Editorial, 22 November, 1989,
Totally unethical corruption and we’ve had 35 years of it. We are long past the time for the media to expose the farce that has degenerated into fraud .We know the corrupt DOJ won’t do it.