Nick Pope
Contributor
American energy demand could be on pace to exceed power supply by the end of the decade, according to Bain, a major consultancy.
Utilities could need to increase their annual power generation by as much as 26% by 2028 to meet surging demand, which the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is driving with power-hungry data centers that are necessary to sustain AI technologies, according to a new report from Bain. Overall U.S. electricity demand stayed mostly flat since 2000, and utility companies will need to make major adjustments to their business models that figure to raise electricity costs for American consumers. (RELATED: ‘Catastrophic’: Top Grid Official Sounds The Alarm On Biden’s Sweeping Power Plant Rules)
‘Inevitable And Foreseeable’: Grid Operators Beg Court To Nix EPA Rules To Save Electricity System From Collapse https://t.co/0LAt8gHVSN
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) September 18, 2024
“In the U.S. alone, adequately funding the capital investments to serve data center growth over the next decade would require utilities to generate 10% to 19% in additional revenue each year than previously forecast,” Bain wrote in its report. “That could incrementally increase customer bills by 1% annually through 2032, according to our analysis.”
AI data centers account for about 44% of the anticipated growth, while residential demand — which includes electric vehicles (EVs) — drive 27% of the increase, according to Bain’s projections. The rest of the growth will come from manufacturing and commercial electricity use.
Bain joins a growing list of power grid operators and experts to warn that America’s electrical system is coming under strain as demand surges and regulations force the premature retirement of reliable fossil fuel-fired capacity.
Specifically, the Biden-Harris administration finalized regulations in April that will require existing coal plants to use carbon capture and storage (CCS) to control 90% of their carbon emissions by 2032 if they want to stay running past 2039, and certain new natural gas plants will also have to cut their emissions by 90% by 2032, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. The federal government maintains that the rules will not degrade grid reliability, though power grid experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that they are expecting the opposite if the rules are enforced.
All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.
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America’s Power Supply Could Be Inadequate To Meet Demand
Then you need Ed Miliband…
…in order to guarantee the inadequacy.
But of course
If only to add certainty and replace the ‘could’ with ‘will’ .
Yesterday Biden mumbled a few lines about the need for a power grid that wasn’t destroyed by every storm. Who needs storms to destroy the grid when his “plans” quite effectively do the job?
Which would survive better in a storm?
Solar/wind generators or nuclear/fossil-fuel generators
Obviously, solar and wind (according to Biden’s and our Australian ‘experts’ so we need more of them
Idjits, all
My thoughts exactly, though with something more colorful than “idjits”. Chuckle.
Then you need Ed Miliband…
Who now seems to be proposing, following in the footsteps of ‘Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air’, to dam the Scottish Highlands to use for pumped storage to try and deal with wind intermittency. But without taking account of the conclusion McKay reached, basically that it can’t be done. North Wales will be next.
McKay’s book is available free here:
https://www.withouthotair.com/
It was written ten years ago, so it only considers moving demand at the time onto wind and solar. If he were writing it now he’d have to reckon with doubling of demand from the move to EVs and heat pumps, and whatever you think AI and more server infrastructure will do to demand.
Can’t be done. Miliband is basically proposing doubling demand while wrecking supply. And doing it by 2030. How much pumped storage can you build in Scotland in five years? How many new wind farms can you install in the North Sea in five years? Not enough.
We, in the UK, don’t need him …
At all!
Auto
We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Experts.
This is actually a pretty funny line:
“The federal government maintains that the rules will not degrade grid reliability, though power grid experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that they are expecting the opposite if the rules are enforced.”
A 90% reduction in emissions from natural gas-fired power plants can easily be achieved by curtailing operations by 90%.
Cold comfort.
re: “America’s Power Supply Could Be Inadequate To Meet Demand by Decade’s End, Major Consultancy Says ”
Straight-line projection assuming NO adaption to increasing demand on the system; History has shown it never works out according to such ‘projections’. IOW, this is a consultancy ‘rent seeking’, looking for a paycheck, or looking to influence up-coming legislation.
Drastically higher prices for electricity should succeed in slashing demand. Supposedly that demand is inelastic- true for the well off, but not true for most people.
Really deep look into the problem, sans one thing NOT cited, “High prices are the cure for high prices.” Can you name the economist who wrote that?
nope
And you base your statement that Bain is “rent seeking” on what facts?
Based on the first (unwritten) order of business for a consultancy; Seek more business … was this really that hard to figure out?
Doesn’t mean they’re crooks or lie to enhance their business- not any more than any burro-ocracies and people in enterprises of all sorts. You’re implying they’re not honest. I was a consultant for 50 years and always honest- one reason I’m poor!
Way to go, UnderscoreJim, for you’ve managed that troll-like technique of thread sliding by choosing an obscure issue to highlight apparently to disparage by association the referenced ‘consultancy’. That troll-ish approach borders on an ad-hominim attack (although it is directed to a group instead of an individual). So, in your world view because a ‘consultancy’ wishes additional business that any and all research results they issue are to be cast aside? Let’s get back to the real issues such as UN-IPCC driven Agendas et.al. reflected in the Power Plant rules directed at coal, methane, and/or oil driven power production- which is of course what the msin post is all about. Try to remain on topic, yes?
Regards.
MCR
… also “looking for a paycheck, or looking to influence up-coming legislation.”
You missed those.
I really want a few of you down-voting geniuses to show us where ‘straight line projections into the future’ WORKED.
Put your brains in gear for a change, and think about it. In almost ANY case with tech you can cite, ‘straight projections into the future’ FAILED.
I’ve yet to see any economics on the forecast AI explosion. Will it really pay for itself, or will much of it collapse as just a more energy intensive way of doing the same thing?
Of course one solution is that if the machine devours energy then people won’t. You’ll be poorer paying for it, and colder in winter and hotter in summer. Your jobs will go, partly to AI, and partly to export of industry. The main purpose of AI is looking to be totalitarian control. Not sure how long that lasts either.
We have an abject idiot for foreign secretary. People have noticed already that decisions – eg Chagos islands, postponed visits from Taiwanese officials etc – are being taken that favour China.
But it gets better [or worse depending on your point of view].
Labour’s climate zealotry is pushing Britain to jeopardise its foreign policy and global standing with a plan to burn biomass imported from North Korea’s dictatorship and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.
https://order-order.com/2024/10/11/farage-slams-labour-plan-to-import-renewables-from-north-korea-and-afghanistan/
Lets remind ourselves of the options…
Hydrogen – ~5.3 MJ/kg (MegaJoules/kilogram)
Wood – 16 MJ/kg
Coal – 24 MJ/kg
Oil – 45 MJ/kg
Gas – 55 MJ/kg
Uranium – ~4,000,000 MJ/kg
Lithium ion battery – < 1 MJ/kg
Wind – 5 to 20 watts/metre^2
Solar – 2 to 3 watts/metre^2
Gas – a natural gas power plant generates 1,000 watts/metre^2.
Miliband gets more demented as time passes by and coupled with loony Lammy we have a double act that really is hard to beat.
And it’s shipped around the world using carbon-free energy?
Maybe they will use sail boats.
Which will soon become sale boats.
And it’s shipped around the world using carbon-free energy?
What’s the excuse to get rid of those islands?
Funny you should ask, Joseph…
“”Starmer’s friend revealed as Mauritius’ chief legal adviser
There was national outrage this morning at the news that Sir Keir’s Labour has decided to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius – but perhaps Brits shouldn’t be so shocked by Starmer’s move. It transpires that the Prime Minister is friends with Philippe Sands KC, who also happens to be Mauritius’ chief legal adviser – and a longtime campaigner for the country to control the land. How very curious…
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/starmers-friend-revealed-to-be-mauritius-chief-legal-adviser/
Wasn’t it the strategy of The Empire to control world choke points? I presume the islands were one. Now the strategy is to continue the emasculation of the UK. I’m rather sure America won’t leave no matter who asks. It’s way too important.
O/T I recently read an article by Julie Birchill on the ubiquitousness of “awareness days, weeks, months” for anything you care to mention. That got me wondering what days etc are set aside for the flaky and “endangered” climate. It didn’t take long:
“Environmental Awareness Calendar (2024)
Veganuary
Big Schools Birdwatch – 8th January to 19th February
Big Garden Birdwatch – 26th to 28th January
World Wetlands Day – 2nd February
International Polar Bear Day – 27th February
World Wildlife Day – 3rd March
The Great British Spring Clean – 15th to 31st March (Litter)
Global Recycling Day – 18th March
International Day of Forests – 21st March
World Water Day – 22nd March
Earth Hour – late March
Earth Day – 22nd April
International Mother Earth Day – 22nd April
Stop Food Waste Day – 24th April
No Mow May
International Compost Awareness Week (ICAW) – 5th to 11th May
Walk to School Week
World Bee Day – 20th May
Water Saving Week
World Turtle Day – 23rd May
Endangered Species Day – 3rd Friday in May
National Children’s Gardening Week – end of May
30 Days Wild
Let It Bloom June
World Environment Day – 5th June
World Ocean Day – 8th June
Great Big Green Week – 8th to 16th June
Bike Week – 10th to 16th June
Clean Air Day – 15th June
International Working Animals Day – 15th June
World Refill Day – 16th June
World Day to Combat Desertification and Drought – 17th June
Plastic Free Beauty Day – 17th June
Sustainable Gastronomy – 18th June
World Rainforest Day – 22nd June
Plastic Free July
International Plastic Bag Free Day – 3rd July
Don’t step on a bee day – 10th July
Love Parks Week
National Marine Week
World Nature Conservation Day – 28th July
Full list at https://greenecofriend.co.uk/environmental-awareness-calendar/
So, given just half the year’s events who could possibly be unaware?
Does it say how many polar bears are invited to International Polar Bear Day, Feb 27th, and where it is being held? I’d like to attend if I can 🙂
To be honest I’d glazed over by June.
So many awareness days and yet they say the public remains totally unaware. Despite the 24/7, 365 etc media and institution driven bombardment of the message, not to mention the indoctrination in the social engineering factories (schools, universities etc) and…. the BBC
“”Climate change: How do we know it is happening and caused by humans?
Our planet has been warming rapidly since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution.””
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-58954530
.
The Little Ice Age (~1300 – ~1850) is kind of coincidental with the with beginning of the industrial revolution around 1760. I think we’d all be searching for something better, don’t you?
International Working Animals Day – 15th June
That’s the Shire horses replacing diesel tractors.
Thought of everything … !
Auto
The goal is to get “energy” up to 10% of every person’s cash flow….
The US is way ahead in the data centre stakes with 5381 compared to Germany’s 521, UK 514, China 449, Canada 336, France 315, Australia 307, Russia 297 and Japan 251 (as of March 2024).
Another interesting thing – approximately 70% of the world’s internet traffic passes through Virginia.
Source ‘The US needs a Bigger (Energy ) Boat’ D Romito Pickering Energy Partners Romito 20240620pdf
I expect that it all passes through a certain building at Fort George Meade in Maryland.
Just remember: It is largely the US Federal government that is bringing this upon our collective heads with their numerous Executive Orders, “mandates” and, yes, even laws that require a switch from direct use of fossil fuels (e.g., ICE cars and natural gas for home stoves, water heaters and interior heating) to use of electricity for such (e.g., EVs, electric appliances and electricity-based home heating).
And, of course, the reference to “adequately funding the capital investments” is bureaucrat-speech for “increasing taxes on the public to obtain funds for”.
The “adequacy” of the power supply on the east coast was challenged before AI during winter storm Elliot.at Christmas of 2022. PJM called for all generation to be on. Many systems were I plant away from rotating blackouts. Duke Energy and TVA DID have to resort to rotating backouts to prevent a system-wide blackout, leaving customers without heat on a frigid day.
The best way to ensure a reliable electrical supply is to spin the number of turbines needed to generate electricity to meet the demand currently on the grid.
Or did something change in Electrical Engineering 101 since I went to college??
When you (and I) were in college we were not taught the importance of “DEFR”. For planning future electrical demand, DEFR provides power to the grid when night and doldrums prevent solar and wind from producing adequate electrical power. DEFR solves the problem. DEFR, Dispatchable Emission Free Resources save the day (or at least the heat and lights). It’s the law, in New York. There’s a slight problem in the details of DEFR, but I’m sure that will work itself out in the next couple of years.
“There’s a slight problem in the details of DEFR, but I’m sure that will work itself out in the next couple of years.”
Hmmm.
Are the Swedish Doom-Pixies breeding quickly enough? If not, we’re in trouble as that/they seems to be the sole DEFR in sight …
Auto
Government needs to get out of micromanaging the power business and big tech needs to start financing new power generation. My suggestion is for big tech to build nuclear generators on or near their campus and sell what they don’t need to the grid. It’s a win win.
it takes a lot of energy to spy on everyone
Companies dealing with Artificial Intelligence should supply their own electricty.
The general public should not have their electricity bills increase because some company introduces a power-hungry application. Let the company finance its own power generation.
I, personally, can get by without AI and see no reason why I should pay extra for it. Let the companies profiting from AI pay their own way and leave the public out of it.