The Climate Realism Show – LIVE every Friday at 1 p.m. ET
NOAA and other forecasters predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be among the most active in decades. Professional climate alarmist Michael Mann said human-caused global warming would prime the Atlantic Ocean to produce 33 named storms and several major hurricanes to lash the United States. The media, of course, jumped on that to sell gloom and doom to America. You might have noticed none of that has come to pass.
The Climate Realism Show #124 will bring in Stanley Goldenberg, one of the country’s top hurricane forecasters to explain what’s going on. We will also cover the Crazy Climate News of the Week, including a luxury yacht sinking in the Mediterranean blamed on climate change, record cold temperatures in August, and Utah fighting land grabs by the federal government.
Join us LIVE at 1 p.m. ET with The Heartland Institute’s Jim Lakely, H. Sterling Burnett, Anthony Watts, and Linnea Lueken and special guest Stanley Goldenberg. Join our always lively chat and we’ll answer your questions on the air.
While it will be interesting to hear what Stanley Goldenberg et al. have to say, based on AtlanticCampfire_sm.png it is premature to pass judgement on 2024 hurricane activity.
Exactly, starting on August 1st, the Texas skies have been full of Saharan dust, there is a reason for everything.
Why is it so hazy outside? Saharan dust is making its way to Texas. (statesman.com)
Yeah, it’s often in like a lamb and out like a lion.
What’s happened to the global temperature site sampling the thousands of Met stations in real time. I need it badly
This one?
https://temperature.global/
5 named Atlantic storms so far but we have not yet crossed the midpoint of the season. The peak is still about 3 weeks off. Half the storms predicted should be recorded about a week or so after the peak.
Back in May, NOAA projected 85% chance of above normal activity, 10% chance of near normal, 5% chance of below normal.
The projections:
17 to 25 named storms (historical average is 14)
8 to 13 hurricanes (historical average is 7)
4 to 7 major hurricanes (historical average is 3)
To date: 5 named storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane.
No crystal ball. No predictions. Just the eyeball test leads to a conjecture that this may be well below the NOAA prognostications.
Historically, 15% of the Atlantic cyclones have been recorded by this date. 15% of 17 = 2.6 and there have been 5, so maybe we are in for a wild ride. Maybe NOAA is spot on.
Most past predictions have fallen short at the end of the “Hurricane Season”.
Whether this one ends up being correct or not, it’s still just “weather”, not ” Man-Made Climate Change”.
Models are valuable in short term weather forecasting. Small errors don’t show up quickly enough to matter.
I want Hurricane forecast to better, particularly to zeroing in on landfall points.
I doubt if adding “Climate Change!” influence into the programming will help at all.
Keep that stuff to the MSM and keep working to “righter”!
Adding “Climate Change” into anything produces nonsense.
And that is why i called the Heartland’s assessment on this season ‘premature’. It should be obvious from the NOAA graph alone that the peak is in september flanked by august and october. Unless Heartland can produce some evidence that their graph is wrong or compromised. Instead, the focus on ‘predictions’ and tying them to current data as presuming a linearity that doesnt exist. The seems to be a peak ( sept) and an off peak period (aug/ oct).
The obese lady hasnt even put on her Wagnerian outfit yet. Some of the horns are missing..
I’m no swallower of the alarmist crap espoused by Mickey Mouse Mann and our resident trolls, but let’s not call BS on their prediction of an abnormally active hurricane season just yet. As Yogi Berra said, “It ain’t over until it’s over.” All these clowns need is one big storm (nothing unusual, by the way) and they’ll be hollering “See!! Told you.” Let’s not give them any satisfaction.
“All these clowns need is one big storm (nothing unusual, by the way) and they’ll be hollering”
__________________________________________________________________________
They don’t need no stinking storm:
The U.S. coast is in an unprecedented hurricane drought – why this is terrifying
The Washington Post August 4th 2016
OMG! A hurricane drought! How will we survive it! Sounds scary! /s
Unprecedented!
Hurricanes that don’t make land fall on American soil should not count.
I hope the Heartlanders have learned a lesson. The man from NOAA had to correct them multiple times about the timeframe. And then Jim still had the nerve to try and correct him about it just being the first inning. And rightfully corrected again. Rather shameful, guys but kudos for having it on air. NOAA projections might still turn out different but that is not the point..
A low point for the Heartland Institute which i like and follow daily. Lesson: prepare yourself properly..
So Obama shouldn’t have bought beach front property?
Computers and their models can be a great tool. But they can be twisted by their programming.
I remember seeing an episode of “Modern Marvels” involving computers used in designing real things.
The one that stuck out to me was a company that used AutoCAD design a safer bumper for trucks.
They took the design the computer produced and then built a few prototypes. They tested them in real-life crash test.
They found what the computer got wrong and tweaked the input with more accurate data until they got a bumper design safe enough to put into production.
Weather forecasting should and probably does look to improve. Hurricane season forecasting likely does the same.
“Climate Change” forecasting?
— “The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models.” – Professor Chris Folland, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.
— “The models are convenient fictions that provide something very useful.” – Dr David Frame, climate modeler, Oxford University.
Besides my point..
Get back to us in a couple of months.
That was not my point which was that Heartland’s premature bashing of those who were predicting a high nr of hurricanes etc was unwarranted and foolish. That was pointed out by the man fr NOAA. Then Jim, who obviously hadnt taken in what he said tried to overrule an obvious fact about the timeframe that was staring him in the face by the presented graph. I think it is the duty of everyone to point out mistakes, errors of judgement if our ‘side’ wants to retain credibility. And a mea culpa by Heartland. They should be big enough. If they don’t it might and likely will be used as a weapon against them and id hate to see that happen..
I get your point- makes sense- but, I like the bashing- the more the better, since almost nobody has the guts to do it.
NOAA’s projections were largely based on the assumption that a full la nina would commence at the beginning of summer, as a lot of ENSO watchers seemed to agree would happen. La nina’s tend to promote more Atlantic cylones using historical data. But apparently the transition between el nino and la nina seems to have stalled, at least for this summer so far, and that would tend to tamp down the number of Atlantic storms.
Now it is far too early to make any predictions for the rest of this year’s “hurricane season” that ends at the end of November. Historically September has by far the most number of cyclones, with the two “shoulder months” of August and October also experiencing far more storms that the rest of the months (June, July, and November).
Some folks were crowing in mid September 2022 that that season was another obvious dud of a hurricane season. But then, just a couple weeks later, on September 28, the most expensive storm in US history – Hurricane Ian – hit the southwest coast of Florida as a strong category 4 storm. As someone who went through that storm here at my home in SW Florida, I can certainly attest that the 2022 hurricane season was far from a dud, no matter how many storms were produced season long.
The thing with hurricanes, they’re only stats until one hits you. Then the stats don’t matter.
“The thing with hurricanes, they’re only stats until one hits you. Then the stats don’t matter.”
True, to a point. I almost died in a tropical storm in Texas back in 1973. (I know it’s name but a quick search on Google didn’t show any results. Strange?)
Aside from learning that the old VW Bug really DID float.
(That particular storm had the distinction of being the first to make “landfall” twice in the same place.)
5 years later were the two “Blizzards of ’78”.
It seems “Climate Change” can be “fickle” at times.
Spot on..
“the most expensive storm in US history”
thanks to the area being heavily built up- not necessarily due to it being an extreme storm
As we say in France :
“C’est à la fin de la foire qu’on compte les bouses.”
English similar idiom :
“It ain’t over till the fat lady sings.”
The entire NOAA hurricane prediction apparatus should be dismantled.
Their record for accuracy is terrible. It is time to admit that the complexity of weather makes a six month forecast impossible.
Even more significant, no one changes their daily behavior as a result of the hurricane season forecast. Only when a storm has formed, do people begin to pay attention to whether that particular storm threatens them.
I live in the southeast in Savannah, GA, and the threat of hurricanes is a yearly issue. Tell me with accuracy that a Category 3 hurricane is going to hit two weeks from Thursday, and I will know to prepare.
The prediction is spun for political purposes, but otherwise useless.
Just curious, but when new buildings are constructed in that area, are they built to be resistant to hurricanes, compared to the past?
Triple waterspouts on the Mediterranean, 2017
And a link to spouts off Italy, 2015 Spectacular Photos Show a Mediterranean Waterspout Near the Coast of Genoa, Italy | The Weather Channel
And here is one back in 1872.. Waterspouts in the Mediterranean stock image | Look and Learn
Reminds me that the first time the Romans attempted to invade Carthage, a huge storm arose that sunk the entire fleet- with the Romans losing 25,000 men. Or something like that. 🙂
It is surprising how people can forget their own history. Even the Native Americans, who were very in-tune with the swings of New England’s weather, were surprised by the fury of a hurricane that hit in the 1600’s, and there are colonial records of them drowning when a mighty storm-surge flooded the coast of Rhode Island. Despite this history, just before the 1938 hurricane some said, with academic authority, “Hurricanes never hit New England.” They hurricanes became frequent between 1938 and 1960, but since then have been rare, and usually have weakened to tropical storms when they get do this far north. So people are again becoming forgetful. I try to warn them, but after around thirty-five years of me running around like Chicken Little, I don’t blame people for rolling their eyes and accusing me of being like the boy who cried “wolf!”
My alarmist tendencies at least have the basis of history, however the alarmist tendencies of Global Warmingists deny the past. Supposedly they are based on futuristic computer programs, but I have doubts about their scientific validity.
It is also surprising how the years have gone by with this quibble never resolving. This is my WUWT post from 12 years ago,
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/21/hurricane-warning-mckibben-alert/
The thing is that in the past only landfall hurricanes were recorded. But now we can track them using satellites. And it can go from cat 2 to cat 5 (and back) over time in its trajectory. It is in the news whether it makes landfall or not. It sends out the alarm which is reasonable so that people can prepare in case of landfall but used by the alarmists to spread their propaganda..
Nice ‘post’ ( linked). More like a book judging by the length. But points well made🙂..
I have followed WUWT for over 15 years and for most of that time it has been a source of facts and information about the absurdity of climate alarmism. With a post every 4 hrs there is now too much clutter, propaganda, and denialism as opposed to realism. I can no longer rely on WUWT as my go-to source; many posts seem as if they are there to meet a quota, not provide facts and information. Most readers will probably have already moved on to the next post before I can even submit this comment.
I do not entirely agree but admit the frequency of posts seem a tad forced, especially with all the: ‘no, the…didnt cause..’.but i would not call that ‘propaganda or denialism’. I think that is way off the mark.
More frequent posts also mean more frequent advertisement..
It’s easy to just skip some topics – but I try to read everything including the comments. I learn something new with every new essay- and much from the comments. I think it’s good that so many people have things to say- the more the better, IMHO. Meanwhile, few people in Wokeachusetts read this site- and I can tell, because if they say anything about the climate, it’s right out of the MSM- and I’m talking smart people!
Whether we have more hurricanes or not has nothing to do with the amount of CO2 in our atmosphere. Those connecting anthropogenic emissions of CO2 with more or less hurricanes don’t know what they are talking about. Don’t listen to them.
Funny. The Iceland volcanic eruption has spewed a plume of SO2 that is affecting England with temperatures lower by 2-6 F.
It is over the Atlantic. Any guesses how it will affect hurricane formations?