From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
The Met Office has briefed the Government and transport chiefs to prepare for at least 50 days of rain in the next three months, leading to fears over further flooding in the UK and dashing any hopes of a warm British summer.
Last summer saw 40 days of rain, but the Met Office expects this summer to be even worse, jeopardising popular summer events such as Wimbledon, Trooping of the Colour, Royal Ascot and many festivals including Glastonbury.
To count as a rainy day, there must be a minimum of 2.5mm of rain in a 24 hour period.
The UK’s wettest ever summer in 1912 saw rainfall on more than 55 days.
You might recall this warning from the Leftwing Broadcasting Company a month ago!
Well so far the summer has been much drier than average:
.
And the Met Office’s 3-Month Outlook suggests rainfall will remain near average:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/contingency-planners/index
.
Could somebody remind me why we need a Met Office?
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Because some entity must set the benchmark for being wrong all the time. Here in America, it’s the democrat party.
The Australian BoM is of the same ilk.
For the same reason we need the BBC – to maintain the narrative.
“The Met Office has briefed the Government and transport chiefs to prepare for at least 50 days of rain in the next three months, leading to fears over further flooding in the UK and dashing any hopes of a warm British summer.”
No it didn’t !!
Can someone tell me how Homewood can infer …..
“What Happened To That “Wettest Summer”, Met Office?
From: “The chances of a wet or dry period are similar to normal”
Can someone also tell him that besides that bizarre confabulation, that it is the 4th of July and not August 31st.
You’re looking at the wrong forecast. There are two in the article. In the space of one month the forecast went from “UK set for ’50 days of rain’ in one of the wettest summers for over a hundred years” to “The chance of a hot period is higher than normal / This brings an increased likelihood of heatwaves and heat-related impacts / The chances of a wet or dry period are similar to normal“.
There’s still one more forecast to go before the first 3 months are up. Bookies’ odds on its contents would be interesting. Even money gale-force winds, 20/1 heatwaves, perhaps?
Two forecasts. One from the Met Office. The other one made up by the Sun, and then repeated by multiple newspapers.
Here’s the article that appears to have sparked this 50 day nonsense
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28159720/britain-wettest-summer-on-record/
They are talking about the MO’s May-July probabilistic forecast, which put the chance of above average rain at 30%. Somehow they extrapolate from that, that there are fears this could mean 50 days of rain. At no point do they suggest the MO is forecasting 50 days, this just seems to be the Sun’s hype.
And the article goes on to quote the MO as saying (my emphasis)
All the other reports seem to be garbled versions of this article, but claiming that it’s the MO forecasting 50 days of rain.
Full marks though for calling LBC the “left-wing” broadcast company. (Illustrated with a picture of Nick Ferrari.)
For balance let’s see how a couple of less left wing papers reported it
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13465553/Britain-braces-one-wettest-summers-record-Met-Office-warns-Government-50-days-rain-possible-holiday-period.html
https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1904241/uk-weather-50-days-rain
But the Met Office emphasised it is difficult to accurately predict the weather beyond five days due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere.
But 20 years out is not a problem
Nobody tries to predict the weather 20 years out. Do people still not get the difference between weather and climate?
You certainly remain clueless.
Nobody can predict “the climate” 20 years out, either. !
Technically, anybody can predict either the weather or climate. They just may not be correct. However, if you say the climate will be the same as it has been for the last 30 years you should be somewhat close.
Weather is real and affects people, climate isn’t and doesn’t. did I pass?
Weather is the clothes you are wearing. Climate is the clothes you have in your wardrobe. As far as I can see, no one has changed the variety of clothes in their wardrobes.
You are displaying your ignorance.
A few weeks ago I watched a bbc programme where Michael Portillo visited the Met Office in Exeter. There, a climate scientist explained to him how they forecast the weather using a model containing over a million lines of code. She explained that they use the very same program to forecast the climate for the next 100 years.
I wonder if anyone has bothered to debug it?
Isn’t climate the average of weather?
“Climate” is the average of historical weather that has already happened. “Climate science” is akin to astrology or haruspicy, except using the magical CO2 in place of chicken entrails divine the future destruction of mankind.
That:s the point. It’s easier to predict an average than individual values. I can’t predict what the next throw of a die will be, but I can predict with some accuracy what the average of the next 30 rolls will be.
Only if the results of your individual rolls are bounded. If the dice could have any number of pips, no two alike, you can’t predict a thing.
Complete nonsense.
Yeah, and years in school taught me I can’t change my average grade until I FIRST changed the individual components that determined my average grade.
“Do people still not get the difference between weather and climate?”
Well, it’s hard to keep them straight since EVERY weather event is touted as “proof” of “Climate Change”.
It is a fact that the explicit definition of climate resolves to weather causes climate, not the converse.
Roger Pielke Jnr says it this way Bellman –
Neither climate nor climate change cause, fuel, or influence weather.Yes, you read that right.
Climate change is a change in the statistics of weather —
It is an outcome, not a cause.
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/climate-fueled-extreme-weather
Sophistry. His argument seems to be that if you define climate in terms of the distribution of weather, that means climate cannot cause weather. But that’s just playing word games. It’s confusing how climate is defined with what determines climate.
It is not word games. Science requires precise definitions and communications also.
Given the explicit definition of climate, it can not cause anything. It is a mathematical construct of weather dynamics.
This is as difficult for people to understand as evolution. Organisms don’t change following an evolutionary script to survive. Those that are lucky to change in the right way survive and that result is evolution.
You can’t predict the weather 20 years out but you can predict the average weather 20 years out? Good trick, but with big enough error bars you could do both.
Tell us your definitions of weather and climate or at a minimum what the difference is.
South-east Arizona. Five day accuracy??? We needed rain on the surrounding countryside or no fireworks tonight, so I’ve been watching the forecast.
On June 28, the forecast for today was 70% chance of rain, thunderstorms. The percentage has dropped every day since, with this morning’s forecast: 20%. We’ve had a few scattered showers over the last five days.
Fireworks? We’ll find out in about three and a half hours. It’s up to the fire chief.
We had fireworks. About 45 minutes after I posted the above, a nice 15 minute rain shower.
You cannot weather a tree but you can climate.
Do I win?
5 star post.
Antony Banton is correct.
The Met Office put put a briefing denying the media reports of 50 days of rain on the 28th May 2024. The same day that the news reporters were lying about the Met Office.
Check the date on this news report from Yahoo.
You sound like the Beeton fellow.
The only good thing about the Met office is Annie Shuttleworth.
Whassat then?
That dear boy, is a BIOLOGICAL WOMAN, who happens also to be intelligent, extremely knowledgeable about all things weather, and far better at explaining it than reading a teleprompter. And who never mentions ‘climate change’.
Smart lady
In short a rara avis…
Right, so you like plain Janes.
Hardly a badge of merit.
I like smart women.
Plain Janes.
Call a spade a spade. Other weather girls are available.
Sheena Parveen is a favorite for her command of the weather figures.
Not much use if you want to know what the weather is going to be.
She has fake boobs.
You left out the obvious visible attribute of being reasonable attractive.
Ok. My bad. Can’t complement women any more.
The weather does one thing and the MO claims something completely different
Gaslighting….
The weather is the weather. Look out of the window and dress appropriately. Although yesterday listened to the met office weather forecast and rather than walking up Cadair Berwyn walked along the Llangollen canal sweltering in my rain coat.
It’s ironic that today the British will be voting for self-imposed penury.
Happy July 4rth !!!
They had that for 14 years
Different parties – sort of – same policies
You did know that, right?
Labour 1 or Labour 2. They both obey the same master and it is not We The People.
The Parliamentary dictatorship.
Some call it the uniparty.
Yep, it’s sad. They had a ‘Conservative’ party that lied and ruled from the left, and a Left party that honestly say they will rule from the left. If the results are going to be the same I can’t really fault anyone voting for the more honest party.
I will be voting for the only candidate with some sort of science degree.
So, if Michael Mann was on the ballot you’d vote for him.
He isn’t on the ballot.
I am selecting from those who are.
Ah, looking for a Social Scientist.
Everybody needs the Met Office in order to have the Climate Crisis hammered into their skulls, daily, as otherwise, if they might just look outside, they would see that it was business as usual.
Here in Liverpool the summer has until now drowned itself in the Mersey. Not a single day over 25C, mostly below 20C. Now it’s 17C. That is autumnal. So, they had the cold right, but the wet is pretty normal.
But no snow. You see snow is now a thing of the past.
Driving back from the supermarket at 10:30 this morning my car told me it was only 11C. Some summer.
I watched the weather forecast last night on the BBC, because the weather over the UK was not very interesting and colder than normal the presenter soon whizzed over to the Caribbean and declared climate change was responsible for the early Hurricane season.
It’s like the MO must mention CC at every opportunity.
What happened to boiling?
What happened to Polar bears? Populations 3 times higher.
What happened to the Greenland ice sheet, at record levels for July.
The alarmists have by now figured that happy polar bears are not good for climate alarm. So they have switched their focus on penguins in peril. Those are doing fine as well but so remote that nobody can check it for themselves.
On the brighter side in an infinite universe there must be at least one case of the Met Office being right no matter what it says … chance is such a fine thing in the predictions game except when you get it wrong.
Exactly.
A clock that has stopped working completely is still right 2 times a day (12 hour clock).
This is the same Met Office that turned a cold, damp and miserable May 2024 into the warmest on record. The clouds that hid the sun and dropped rain on a lot of the country kept night temperatures above average (at airports and other badly sited weather stations)- aye that’ll be right.
Then says this about a pretty disappointing June:”June 2024 was a dry, cool and sunny month compared to the UK’s long-term average” I don’t remember a great deal of sun in England’s East Midlands although we did have 3 successive warm sunny days. For cool read cold
If, like me, you had to put the heating on on cold wet June evenings then you know the MO is making it up.
After all, in this [energy expensive] day and age who puts the heating on for the fun of it?
You cannot trust the MO or the garbage data it collects, let alone the analysis of said data.
UAH also shows May in the UK as well above average.
The monthly anomaly was above average. Ben Vorlich explained why. And it wasn’t because we were basking in blazing sun.
He said it was cold. He said the Met Office had turned it warm by using badly sized stations, and that it was only above average at night.
Looking at the UK as a whole, MO has maximum temperatures 2.1°C above the 1991-2020 average, 2nd warmest, and minimums 2.7°C above average. But daytime temperatures were warmer relatively warmer the further north you go, with the highest anomalies being in Scotland.
I suspect another reason why people are convinced it was a cold May is bad memory. The first half of May was actually noticeably warm and sunny. It was the second half when it turned cold. People remember the end and forget the beginning.
No one said it was sunny or record breaking highs.
It was however a record warm spring in the mean CET.
The same 3 thermometers that made 2024 the warmest at 10.6C also recorded 2013 as one of the coldest few % at 6.9C.
A handful of people refuse to believe fact and prefer belief, feelings, and the lack of insolation making it feel chilly enough to put the heating on.
June was up and down, turned out 0.1C below average in the CET mean.
July has started off chilly.
Dems the facts.
Oh my gosh!
Paul Homewood does himself no favours by resurrecting this false narrative. The origins of the ‘about 50 days of rain’ forecast was a reporter from The Sun who misinterpreted the MO’s probabilistic forecast – in a previous thread I showed how I think he arrived at his misinterpretation. His report was then regurgitated by LBC. Nothing to do with the MO.
The British used to know how to rain ..
I have taken a recent keen interest in the reviewing the US’s National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center page and notice that their prognostication is worse than a coin flip.
I do appreciate the reporting of More/Same/Less in both heat and precipitation to be a percentage of confidence that the trend for a few days’ slice of time is hotter/cooler or wetter/dryer but all it takes is a high pressure cell to retreat from one area and a low to advance a little more to another and their guesses change dramatically from day to day.
At this point, both the Met and the NWS are nothing more than just jobs programs so the politicians can continue to brag about how many “Jobs I Have Created” and graduates from college can land a constant gig in an air-conditioned office (or the coveted WFH) rather than do something more aligned with their skills and education like dig ditches or move crates in a warehouse.
“but all it takes is a high pressure cell to retreat from one area and a low to advance a little more to another and their guesses change dramatically from day to day.”
That’s right, and these kinds of changes in shortterm weather patterns happen constantly, all over the globe. We can guess how they are going to change to a certain extent, but we can’t do that too far out in time. That’s why weather forecasts are limited to seven or 10 days. Ten days is pushing the limits.
They will have to check the seaweed hanging on the Met Office roof on St Swithun’s day before making a long-term forecast.
It seems that weathermen and economists are the two professions where most of your predictions can be wrong but you still keep your job.
I used to tell my kids when they were young and playing little league baseball that baseball was the only sport where you could be successful 1/3 of the time and still be an all-star.
More bad government in all its shining glory. The MET needs to be restructured or shut down and we can start over. Either way the current leadership is disgraceful.
We have a met office soothsaying the weather so the peasants have something to talk about when they wear a winter raincoat and take an umbrella and then the met office change their minds and call it the hottest day ever since the big bang and declare a hosepipe ban. They want 50 days of rain to wash away the sewage they have allowed to pollute our once pleasant land. They have to justify their existence somehow….