By Joe Bastardi
Hurricane Beryl shows what nature can do.
Is it a man-made climate change example?
NO!
The climate is always changing. Man’s input just may come in third in order of importance.
The Le Chetileirs Principle is too often ignored by those wedded to the man-made climate narrative.
No one denies the climate changes. The argument is over attribution.
Consider the solar impact over the last 35 years of increased geothermal input.
The numbers are tough to argue with.
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So is the geological time record.
So is the reconstruction of the medieval warm period and today’s temps.
In the shorter term ( since last December), shock and awe were expected. When the oldest living global private sector tropical forecaster ( me) says a hurricane season from hell is on the way, I can’t help that it is ignored until shortly before it shows up.
The climate does change. This year, as has been argued since late last year, would see the Atlantic the focus relative to averages the most global activity record warm water (again see geothermal input) and a more favorable look in the eastern Pacific as well as the Atlantic ( notice the cooling north of the very warm water, and of course off western North America). This “focuses” heat in the main development region.
As I have pointed out countless times, these rapid feedbacks are all with smaller storms in phase 2 or 3 of the Madden Julian Oscillation which we are in now.
You can scream man-made climate change all you want, but the man-made part is likely exaggerated compared to natural drivers.
Meanwhile, if you want to play that game and you are all about the global aspect, the fact the western Pacific Ocean had its 3rd latest start on record and nothing since then, and on Tuesday, the Eastern Pacific will break its record for the latest ever, you are guilty of a cherry pick while ignoring what is the largest orchard, the Pacific. The Pacific ACE index by the end of June ( total basin) is 53.2. We will be at less than 20% of that, an astoundingly low figure, and given the much larger climate signal, a counterweight to the rapid feedback of Beryl. It is also the classic example of what I keep trying to point out. That the DISTORTED PATTERN OF warming can HAVE THE OPPOSITE EFFECT ON THE KIND OF DISASTER EXTREMES THAT ARE SO OFTEN CHERRY PICKER. It’s an extreme, all right, but the opposite, and certainly, no one in the western Pacific is complaining about the last several years of below-average activity.
In a way, the things I see today from the meteo misinformation media are like the debate. When you hide something, and then it shows up, people who have no idea that it was hidden are in shock. I suspect many people on the other side of the issue know that the overall balance of the entire system is such that there is just as much going on the other way than how they portray things ( I dealt with that in my last article).
If you are in shock and awe over Beryl, that’s on you. As sea surface temperatures are like August, the atmosphere will act like August when given the right conditions. Those conditions this year are in the Atlantic Basin. My company, weatherbell.com, saw this last December, and we have been saying so. Quite frankly I was wondering what took it so long.
But perspective and the total picture is something not in vogue today. In everything, crucial facts are hidden. I keep trying to show them with climate and weather, the other side of the story. And the huge, massive elephant in the room is that the busiest basin in the world is running less than 20% of average and has a record slow start in the eastern Pacific and 3rd slowest in the west. Globally, that is a huge deal.
If the nation panics into making rash decisions about the weather, it will be hard to undo the damage.
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Is it possible to increase hurricane strength by human intervention? If so, does that happen? And if it does, how would that be apparent?
Drop a nuke or a hydrogen bomb into the eye of each hurricane.
People will soon not be so concerned about the hurricane.
Let’s make the threat really “Man-Made”!
First, I’d try parachuting Hillary Clinton into the eye from about 30,000′ to see what happens.
Good Idea!
I can think of a few others that should accmpany her.
Does anyone expect anything else in this region at this time of year? Yet the alarmists can hardly wait to pounce on an early-developing tropical storm as incontrovertible proof of human-generated climate change and more imminent disasters. By that logic, an early-November blizzard on the Canadian prairies or the northern tier of American states is further evidence of climate change caused by what else but excessive fossil-fuel consumption.
“Does anyone expect anything else in this region at this time of year? Yet the alarmists can hardly wait to pounce on an early-developing tropical storm as incontrovertible proof of human-generated climate change and more imminent disasters.”
You can count on Climate Alarmists to pounce on any and every extreme weather event as proof of human-caused climate change. It’s all they have to advance their climate change narrative, since they don’t have any proof or evidence. They see CO2 in every weather event. That’s what delusional, obssesed people do.
In addition to Bastardi, both the NHC and Klotzbach also predicted a very active 2024 tropical storm season. Two basic reasons. Unusually warm North Atlantic waters providing more ‘fuel’, and an emerging La Niña reducing Atlantic upper level wind shear, enabling TS formation. Both long known conditions.
As Joe said, if you have late August conditions in early July, you will get late August hurricanes in early July. Earliest ever Cat5 was a natural outcome. Only good news—but not for Jamaica—is that Cat5 tend to be smaller because of conservation of angular momentum, the figure skater arm spin effect. Cat5 Andrew devastated Homestead, but mostly spared Miami for that reason.
In Second Mate’s meteorology class we were told:-
June, too soon.
July, stand by.
August, blow-it-must.
September, remember,
October, blow’s over.
Works pretty well for the N. Altantic
Man makes rubber tires. All automobiles have rubber tires, therefore, rubber tires are the cause of every traffic accident.
Each and every traffic accident proves I’m right, therefore, every rubber tire must be replaced with wooden wagon wheels.
Since every accident proves I’m right, nobody can prove I’m wrong.
(Wooden wagon wheels would also eliminate flat tires. Doesn’t that sound good?)
PS Someday we’ll find a wagon wheel that actually works for cars. In in meantime, keep a rubber tire in your trunk as a “spare”.)
Very nice Joe.
“When you hide something, and then it shows up, people who have no idea that it was hidden are in shock”
Well there’s something topical, and not too far off-topic. The fact that so many people were surprised at Biden’s abysmal performance in the debate was, to me, and I suspect to most people on here, truly strange. I can’t even imagine what news sources they cloister themselves into to not know the extent of his decline. Surely, even nail, simon and Izaak but maybe not Mosher would have been aware of it and, of course, Nick would contort himself into a pretzel to prove that it wasn’t really true.
That was truly remarkable and unexpected. No wonder they believe that polar bears are dropping like flies and the Maldives are underwater. Next thing I’ll be hearing is that people in the UK are voting Labour ……..
The climate’s natural variation continues to be denied by those who wish to deploy weather events as a mechanism to influence human society.
Maybe one day the basic principles of climate variation will be allowed to be taught in schools and debated on the media channels post BBC extinction. Sadly that day will be at a point in the future that is beyond many of our lifetimes.
Meanwhile here in Blighty (UK) we are about to indulge in the cyclical political shift from Tweedledum to Tweedledee as we vote for the same old same old, only under a different party name.
We will be well prepared for the ongoing Net Zero economic destruction having indulged in that this past 10 years. The ongoing evolution of Woke will be uninterrupted as we find ever new ways to deny truth and ever more ways to dream up more gender identities. The denigration of all that is good will continue as Tweedledee continues Tweedledum’s policy of ignoring the bleeding obvious.
This election will be worth watching because the corrupt none representative political class are about to be Reformed. It will take a while but the process has begun.
Glad to see you writing here Joe!
Former east coast surfer here. La Nina & AMO+ means a very good summer for surf. All because of the tropical systems.
Consider the solar impact over the last 35 years of increased geothermal input.
I’ve always liked Joe Bastardi and have wanted to talk with him about solar vs geothermal forcing.
If Joe could produce supporting seismic data for his geothermal theory such as in the Carribean this year that could tie any seismic activity to the regional OHC, I’d be inclined to consider it valid.
Beryl is just following the path of highest ocean heat content in the Carribean, releasing heat.
My research shows this anomalously high OHC comes from the overhead sun warming the region while under the influence of anomalously high total solar irradiance (TSI). It has been rare for the sun’s TSI to be this high two years running, and hasn’t been during the summer months for ages.
“My research shows this anomalously high OHC comes from the overhead sun warming the region while under the influence of anomalously high total solar irradiance (TSI).”
How does the Sun heat one specific area of the ocean and not get the whole ocean up to that same temperature? Ocean currents have to be the reason for different parts of the ocean being different temperatures, right?
Speed of light.
Thermal capacity of water.
Latency of heat conduction in water.
Water currents and convection currents..
Rate of evaporation versus atmospheric pressure and partial pressure of water.
Each of those happens at different rates. Basically the solar EM energy inputs the system at rates far exceeding the transfer of energy by other means.
Excellent points, especially your last one.
Ocean currents are part of the right answer along with the depth of solar penetration, particularly near the shoreline in the case of the Carribean and the Gulf of Mexico.
The Gulf of Mexico, and less so the Carribean, are partially bordered by land, limiting wider circulation, allowing more ocean heat to build. The same general ideas are in play in the Western Pacific Warm Pool where wider circulation is partly inhibited by so many islands and is also blocked and steered by the Asian continent.
The whole ocean can’t be warmed simultaneously to the same temperature because the whole ocean is never directly exposed to the same amount of solar energy on any given day due to the changing seasonal sun zenith angle and sun-earth distance. That is the reason why the annual Carribean OHC has March minima and September maxima; it is the reason why the Atlantic hurricane season ends by the end of November (or sooner).
This year (and last) the North Atlantic also anomalously warmed up from the summer sun and anomalously high TSI together, ie, seasonally warming.
Separate comment on Joe’s Caribbean geothermal ocean speculation. I have researched this ocean warming hypothesis closely for many years, and find it very unsound for three basic yet independent reasons. One suffices. 3 is a killer.
Very good, and I hope Joe notices your observations.
You omitted Tonga.
It’s Le Chatelier
It’s the start of the next Ice Age I tell ya-
Adelaide shivers through coldest July morning since 1908 | 7NEWS (youtube.com)
We’re all doomed!
PS: Well perhaps I was being a bit pre-panicky and the time to really panic is when the Tassie reffos start pouring across the ice land bridge to the mainland-
Aussie state records lowest July temperature on record (msn.com)
The dooming is still coming to get us all.
Well that is a blow (or not) I was thinking Southern Australia/Tasmania would be a good place to retire to. Clearly it is far to cold for sensible people….
I’m waiting for my VIC20 to finish the calculations for my Atlantic Hurricane prediction. I expect the answers to available about November 1st. 🙂
Anybody who thinks http://www.plateclimatology.com/ is a credible source of scientific
information really needs to get out and talk to some real scientists. Mr. Kamis for example
even wants to claim that micro plastics originate from deep sea vents rather than being man-made (http://www.plateclimatology.com/how-geological-forces-generate-deep-sea-microplastics). There is no evidence that geothermal heating is responsible for even a tiny amount of ocean heating.
I disagree in principle. The devil is in the details and accounting for all energy sources is necessary.
Geothermal heating, as minimal as it could be, will be responsible for some, however minute, amount of ocean heating.
El Nino is reportedly due to ocean floor geothermal heating. Consider that effect on global oceans and weather.
Joe Bastardi attributes at least part of the warming to human-generated heat. I’d like to hear more from him on that topic.
From the article: “No one denies the climate changes. The argument is over attribution.”
Exactly right! People should keep this in mind.
From the article: “notice the cooling north of the very warm water”
How does that happen?
From the article: “And the huge, massive elephant in the room is that the busiest basin in the world is running less than 20% of average and has a record slow start in the eastern Pacific and 3rd slowest in the west. Globally, that is a huge deal.”
What are the ramifications of this? Does this portend cooler weather for the globe or is it regional?
If it is ignored, then everything is a disaster. If it is included, then everything is nominal or even average. Which do you think the media with their ever increasing need for advertising revenues will choose to put forward?
Nice one, Joe. As one with an education in chemistry, I particularly like the reference to Le Chatelier’s Principle.
They’re saying “strongest recorded this early” – how do we know there wasn’t anything comparable 100 years ago? How were we recording hurricanes at sea then? Or 400 years ago? These are very tiny time periods.
Good question. All the records are from the few sailing vessel sightings and landfall diaries.
I live in the Adirondack Park in northern New York State. Here, in southern Essex County, as well as the rest of the Park, the flora, including all kinds of vegetation, has been noticeably improving for the last several years. I believe that this is mostly, or probably all, because of the increase in CO2 which is highly beneficial to plants. This year the vegetation is absolutely LUSH! Just drive down any road and you notice how tree branches are growing out above the road surface. I have also noticed that the vegetation has lessened the visibility in many, or most driveways, looking from the road. This is happening world wide with varying effect, as shown from satellite and aerial views. The Adirondack region is one of the many world locations getting maximum benefits from the increase in CO2. CO2 is PLANT FOOD!!
I am having a hard time keeping up with weeding. Maryland is greening also.
“But perspective and the total picture is something not in vogue today… “
This is a key statement as almost all major topics, including environment, health, economics, history, are all discussed without perspective, or context and any argument will sound plausible if it s free floating with no foundations in reality.
Remember a few years ago when hurricane Dorian sat static and poured rain over the Bahamas and Florida for some days – and Michael the Mann said that this was caused by climate change and would get worse? “It’s in the models”, quoth the captain of the hockey team.
Hurricane Beryl charged through the whole length of the Caribbean like a runaway train, 2400 km from Grenada to the Caymans in less than three days. Can we expect his Mannliness to assert that climate change is making hurricanes travel faster? That would be on a par with CO2-caused global warming leading to cooling. After all, in the fantasy world of climate science, CO2 can do anything at all.
The intellectual process by which CO2 emissions are asserted to be the cause of all weather events is the same intellectual process used by our distant ancestors, who would say that bad weather happened when “the gods are angry”. The remedy is more or less the same – but instead of virgins, we have to sacrifice our material wealth and comfort. Remarkably, that Stone-age version of climate science was achieved without anyone having a Ph.D. from Penn State. Plus ça change…
Sacrificing our material wealth and comfort will sacrifice more virgins than were ever given to Pele.
stangely the anonymous article claiming the hurricane would decrease in intensity. has disappeared. into the failed skeptical prediction worm hole
Que?
Before dawn, Beryl will arrive in Texas.
Tomorrow.