Essay by Eric Worrall
I wonder how investors who bet on UBS’ 2020 imminent green energy boom hype feel today?
Power prices to surge amid sluggish rollout of clean energy: UBS
Angela Macdonald-Smith Senior resources writer
Jul 1, 2024 – 5.01pmThe sluggish buildout of clean energy generation will drive up wholesale power prices far more than expected by the end of the decade, leaving households with little chance of bill relief beyond this year’s pause.
Analysts at UBS now expect prices to peak at $104 per megawatt hour by 2029, 20 per cent higher than this year’s forecast and almost 50 per cent more than 2023.
…
“Delay in the buildout of transmission networks and renewable generation drive the continued increase in prices, particularly during peak net-demand hours during the day,” he wrote, pointing to delays in the development of projects such as Snowy 2.0 and the Central-West Orana Renewable Energy Zone in NSW.
…
Read more: https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/slow-clean-energy-rollout-means-20pc-bill-surge-this-decade-ubs-20240701-p5jq2y
Back in 2020 it was a very different story;
UBS: A ‘wave of capital’ is about to flow into renewable energy
December 17, 2020 | Sam Jacobs
Australia’s wholesale electricity prices are falling as more renewable energy sources enter the mix, UBS says.
And over the next decade, the ongoing renewables rollout will help cap the cost of electricity below $70 per megawatt hour (MWh) by 2030.
While the policy stance around renewables remains a source of debate, UBS said the reality on the ground is that government support will drive “further significant penetration from renewables” over the next two to three years.
“State government policies supporting net-zero emissions will attract a wave of new capital into renewables over the next 10 years in our view,” analyst Tom Allen and his team said.
…
Read more: https://stockhead.com.au/energy/ubs-a-wave-of-capital-is-about-to-flow-into-renewable-energy/
Imagine betting your life savings on the fickle promises of politicians.
Just as well UBS, which manages $1.5 TRILLION in assets, are renowned global investment experts. Otherwise some people might start to wonder if they were just making it up as they go.
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Just as the experts predicted a wave of demand for EVs and have seen this reduced to a trickle, we’re seeing the same for renewable energies which are continuing to prove to be unreliable and overpriced. People don’t mind paying for products and power sources that actually work, not ones that are supposedly going to rescue us from climate catastrophes that aren’t occurring to begin with.
When did Earth become no longer bound by the laws of physics and economics, replaced by magic and fantasy?
How can these fools not understand that an all-electric economy requires enough electric energy to replace all the fossil fuel energy, and infrastructure to carry it and distribute it to point of use, and the materials, resources, capital readily available to achieve that… and it needs a timescale of at least 60 to 70 years?
Even given time the change is unaffordable.
It won’t be long before they develop a working “flux capacitor” to cover the gap.
Meanwhile, just switch all power to windmills and solar panels.
(I heard that Mr. Fusion is just around the next few corners.)
Gifted philosophers have explained the paradox: Not everyone can be smart. If you don’t know where you are going, you’ll end up somewhere else. There ain’t no cure for stupid. You know how stupid the average person is, half of them are stupider than that.
And, given the debate last Thursday, it looks very much like any promises the Democrats made on “renewables” will not happen.
Are you suggesting that a Democrat replacement candidate will act different than Biden on these issues? If so, where do you get that idea?
What replacement? IMO Hunter desperately needs Biden to be there after the election to forgive his sins, he was “the strongest voice” urging Biden to stay. Its hard to say no to your son in need.
Hunter said, “Pardon me, would you have any Grey Poupon?”
Joe said, “Depends.”
Too funny Eric
Isn’t that what one pigeon said to the other…
“Pardon me, but did you know you have a little Grey Poupon you?”
Come and clean my computer screen, Scissor! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I believe Joe WILL pardon Hunter after Nov 5th. If he wins the election then the pardon will be on Jan 22nd after he is inaugurated if he doesn’t win then it will be Nov 6th. If the 25th is invoked the pardon will come the day before his replacement is sworn in
An honest question.
Could Joe “pardon” Hunter before Hunter is convicted?
I think Hunter also probably needs Mr 10% there to continue to hide Hunter’s goings-on in Ukraine.
The question that should be asked is not ‘who should replace Dementia Joe?’ but ‘who is it that is intent on keeping him there and for what motives?’
Duuh! Biden was losing before the debate, and anything, including doing nothing, will only make it worse odds the party retains power.
Here in the US too many people forget or don’t realize that the rest of the Dems marched in goose-step to all of “his” disasterous policies his puppeteers proposed.
I wish it wasn’t true, but (at least in today’s politics in the US),
“A Dem by another name is still a Brandon.”
Murricans should take Democrats at their word that Biden is the bees knees at explaining and delivering their policies and vote accordingly. Isn’t that right Nick et al?
UBS can ignore reality, but not the consequences of ignoring reality.
Notice the false UBS presumption that the slower than expected renewables rollout is raising prices. A faster rollout would raise prices faster. See the German Energiewende for an example.
You and Eric don’t seem to notice that UBS is investing in energy production. They benefit from higher prices.
So they don’t do so well in SA and Vic, where there has been a faster rollout. Prices fell, not rose. From the Q1 AEMO report:
I would have said that UBS is investing where it can make a return for itself and its investors.
But you are clearly much smarter than me because only really smart people can believe the truly stupid things you say. You do believe what you say don’t you Nick?
Investment in wind and solar means basically NO RETURN (except subsidies) when there is no wind at night or on a cloudy day.
SA got great return from the diesel generators this morning.. Was running about 9% of their, admittedly tiny, demand.
If UBS is investing in energy production.. they should stay well away from wind and solar.
Erratic and unreliable.
Well, didn’t Warren Buffett (what would he know about financial investing?) say that without all the taxpayer subsidies and tax breaks, wind & solar make no sense at all as an investment channel?
Yes, high demand and high prices in Qld. As to the minima, the full report from your link explains:
“While summer temperatures can drive higher demand levels, the longer daylight hours and more direct sunlight can also lead to higher generation by rooftop PV systems. This can lead to reduced demand for electricity from the grid. Rooftop solar output reached new heights in Q4 2023, when the summer season started, and remained high for the majority of Q1 2024.
The reduction in grid demand enabled by rooftop solar led to Q1 records being set for minimum daily demand in Victoria and South Australia. Minimum demand records are typically set on sunny yet mild summer days when rooftop solar output is high but airconditioning requirements are low.”
That is why prices are highest in Qld and Vic, with W&S, is cheapest and exporting to just about everywhere:
That’s great that they had better than normal conditions, but that still doesn’t mean they’ve had “faster rollout” of renewables in those areas which created the minimum. I’m not going to search for that info. regarding “faster rollouts” compared to the rest of Australia. My question to you is: with the “faster rollout” and normal/worse (sunny and hot, cloudy and hot)renewable energy conditions next Q1, what will happen to wholesale prices? Will SA and Vic residents continue to see them fall as you’ve suggested is the main reason or is this a one off nice quarter? (Thanks for the graphic)
It wasn’t a one off. This seems to be the first report with a graphic in this style, but here are flows in Q2 and Q3 (winterish). Victoria now imports a little from TAS and SA, dwarfed by the export to NSW. TAS is hydro, SA is W&S.
You have just proved you are clueless.. as usual.
SA relies absolutely on gas and diesel, plus brown coal from Victoria.
They are what carries SA when their wind regularly FAILS to deliver.
Without them, it would collapse completely… A small demand that wind and solar can rarely supply.
Most transfers into NSW from Victoria are feeding the southern region, which is much closer to Vic coal field power than to NSW coal field power stations.
Ditto with transfers from Qld to NSW, which feed the large population areas of the far north coast.
Currently SA is running on 65% GAS, some diesel, some wind + imports.
NSW 75% coal and gas, 10% hydro
Qld 95% Coal and gas
Vic 79% coal and gas, 10% hydro
Wind is a pittance.
Heck, even Tassie, with all its hydro and a tiny demand, is currently using 14% GAS and sucking from the Victorian brown coal (1% wind)
And of course solar is totally absent !
Here is the total generation for SA over the last year, from the AEMO dashboard. 57% wind, 31% gas, 9% grid solar. But that leaves out the huge rooftop solar.
It was 65% gas when I looks.
Someone must have eaten some beans.
Back up to 60% now.
Gees, wind is so ERRATIC isn’t it Nick !!
And there is no solar now.. Even you aren’t that stupid. !
In terms of faster rollout, here is a composite graphic of the various fuel mixes of the states (actual generation %) over the last 12 months SA has wind 57%, grid solar 9%. Vic has wind 21%, solar .
Nick, you know you have to look at those periods when wind and solar don’t provide.
You have to be able to cover for those periods.
Quoting average usage is rank stupidity, because it doesn’t keep the lights on… or the heaters and fridges working.
And of course, at the evening and morning peaks for 6 months of the year…
… there is no rooftop solar.
Why no mention of Q2 and Q3, Nick ??
Pretty stupid having a supply that is only available in summer…
… wouldn’t you agree, Nick !!
UBS Subsidy miners? Oh noes. 😉
Even the CSIRO report acknowledges that increasing renewables increases prices: “the higher the [variable renewable energy] share the higher the costs”. – 5.2.2 Key assumptions
My Brit adviser suggested Octopus Energy which I declined because their clean energy supply to customers was clearly a lie. Would have lost half my money on a year,
It’s incredible how many electricity providers get away with the lie that their supply is 100% “renewable”. It’s simply impossible, and yet OFGEM allow them to get away with the lie.
The first round did just great, mining the subsidies. The trick is getting out before the greenhouse of cards collapses.
I made a LOT of money over the years by doing just three simple basic things.
A lot of brokers do very well dumping their dogs on their clients.
Orwellian. The price of renewable electricity is falling steadily, going from $70/MWh, to $104/MWh. Rejoice… peasants!
Dunno exactly about Australia, but some years ago recalculated the US ‘official but very wrong’ EIA LCOE of CCGT versus onshore wind using ERCOT grid at 10% then wind penetration for backup and transmission. Bottom line, CCGT $58/MWh, wind $146/MWh. A ~2.5x difference that cannot be made up by volume like UBS falsely hopes. So the faster AUS wind penetrates its grid, the higher the AUS electricity cost will be. Fact, not old UBS fairy farts.
Yes. There is a similar anecdotal story about a german citizen toward the end of WWII noticing that the great german military victories were getting closer and closer to home.
Fire up all fossil fuel and nuclear generators, build new fossil fuel and nuclear generators, remove wind and solar from the grid and update the grid.
…and see energy prices fall for ordinary consumers, with attendant economic benefits.
Net zero is the return on capital for renewable enery investment.
Imagine betting your life savings on the fickle promises of politicians.
Imagine betting your life on fickle energy!
Add in the cost of grid instability, which drives conventional power producers into bankruptcy, and there is a much more serious problem than costs developing.
The simple fact is that western nations are committing suicide. Not economic suicide. Real suicide via political ignorance. Populations and dependency on electricity is expanding while reliability is heading into the toilet. No power in winter for an extended period is not physically sustainable.
Nope, but it does reduce the population over a season
It doesn’t even have to get to net-zero-
Tragic way Aussie man found dead (msn.com)
Delay in the buildout of transmission networks and renewable generation drive the continued increase in prices, particularly during peak net-demand hours during the day,”
CORRECTION: The mindless closure of coal fired plants drive………
Well we’re thinking about rolling that out fairly soon-
Waste sector fears ‘catastrophic’ electric vehicle battery fires, as first wave of EV batteries reach end-of-life – ABC News
We just have to find some more slush funds from somewhere for all the sustainability.
Story Tip
Ed Miliband, shortly to be UK Energy Sectretary and Net Zero Sectretary, as reported in the Guardian:
Labour will promise to take the lead on global efforts to tackle the climate crisis, filling a “vacuum of leadership” on the world stage and proving Rishi Sunak’s U-turn on net zero has been a “historic mistake”, Ed Miliband has said.
Miliband says his party would put climate front and centre of its plans in government, promising to reverse the ban on onshore wind in the immediate days after parliament returns after the election.
He said it was also a chance to fundamentally change course on climate and to make that case on the world stage.
“We have taken the manifesto position we have because we think it is the right thing now,” he said in an interview with the Guardian. “But it is also right that we fill the vacuum of leadership on this issue.
“We now have a government that is explicitly going along with the climate delayers. We have to change course as a country and as a world. And this election is an opportunity for us to change course.”
Miliband is to become one of the most influential figures in the expected next Labour government and one of very few with direct cabinet experience. He said that climate was the front line in the battle against the populist right across the world.
Leading the world – with your money. Why do these guys always want to lead the world? And the idea that more onshore wind in Britain will have the slightest effect on the global climate? Insane.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/01/labour-will-take-global-lead-on-climate-action-ed-miliband-vows
Insane is right.
Because we know that canada leads the world in saving the world, with our pathetically small emissions and our even more useless attempts to contain them.
Trudeau is god, if you don’t believe me, just ask him.
““But it is also right that we fill the vacuum THAT IS LEADERSHIP on this issue, with a large bag of CRAP.
Recently over a beverage with a farmer friend in eastern Alberta, he told me the offer per acre per year from solar developers is 800% more than he would get renting the land for food production.
So where does all that cash come from if the power is free?
He hasn’t bitten yet, but it’s a lot of money.
We all pay for that.
One: Why the downvote?
Two: Not so different than paying farmers to keep some land unplanted.