Originally posted at ClimateREALISM
The mainstream media is hyping the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) annual hurricane Season forecast released on May 23rd, that projects significantly above normal hurricane season is to be expected in the Atlantic. For example, these headlines: NBC News, NOAA issues highest-ever early forecast for the coming hurricane season; the New York Times, 2024 Hurricane Season Is Expected to Be Abnormally Busy, NOAA Predicts; and Huffington Post, NOAA Issues Its Most Aggressive Storm Forecast Yet Ahead Of Hurricane Season. The 2024 hurricane season may or may not wind up above average, but based on the same kind of forecasts and reporting in 2022, which failed to materialize, there is a good chance that these predictions and headlines will prove to be big on hype and low on accuracy.
NOAA’s press release says this:
NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
If that forecast comes true it would in fact be a very busy season with the potential for devastating storms along the United States and Caribbean coastlines.
Many reports suggest a busier than normal season because ocean heat content in the main region of the Atlantic is running ahead of schedule for this time of year. Hurricanes thrive on heat from the ocean, so forecasters are expecting quick development.
The current ocean heat content in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes is currently running about 2.5 months ahead of schedule according to this analysis by Brian McNoldy at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School, seen in Figure 1 below.
NOAA latches onto this heated development adding in their press release:
As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.
But despite the predictions of a fast and furious potential for more hurricanes this year Mother Nature isn’t cooperating, so far. Philip Klotzbach, Ph.D., a hurricane specialist at the University of Colorado notes that expected development has stalled:
The Northern Hemisphere has yet to have its first named storm (e.g., tropical storm or hurricane) in 2024. This is the first time since 1983 that the Northern Hemisphere has gone this late in the calendar year without a named storm.
The early forecasts and media coverage have a feeling of 2022, “deja vu all over again.” Climate Realism brought attention to the early overhyped claims and the failures of the media in covering the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season here, here, and here. When it was all over, we reported Despite Predictions, 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Fizzles Out Below ‘Normal’. After nearly 4 decades of climate agenda driven claims of worsening global climate impacts from hurricanes, NOAA’s measured worldwide hurricane season data for all year 2022 tropical storms showed that global wide storms were at their lowest strength levels in the last 42 years as seen in Figure 2 below.
To say that the predictions and media coverage of the 2022 hurricane season was an epic failure is an understatement.
Yet, here we are, two years later with the same sort of predictions and media hype unfolding again. In 2022, NOAA said this:
The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.
Sound familiar? Only time will tell, but given the poor track record of the past, there’s a good chance that NOAA and the media will have egg on its collective face again at the end of 2024. One thing we can say for certain when it comes to hurricanes, despite constant assertions that climate change is making them worse, data shows that there is no long-term trend of either increasing hurricane frequency or hurricanes becoming more powerful.
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business both in front of, and behind the camera as an on-air television meteorologist since 1978, and currently does daily radio forecasts. He has created weather graphics presentation systems for television, specialized weather instrumentation, as well as co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He operates the most viewed website in the world on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
OT a bit, but…OMG have a look at this stuff, that is when you KNOW it is not about the weather! We must stem the rising tide of grasping Marxists before it is too late, because inside of every progressive is a totalitarian screaming to get out and enslave us all.
Home Page – Climate Justice Alliance
I know. At some point it’s time to fight the locusts before they eat the axe handles…
See my post earlier today
Everyone with an ounce of sense realizes of course, that no one can predict the future.
If they could, they would be at the racetrack and not working in a daily grind government job.
Just because some things are hard to predict is not evidence that nothing can be predicted.
Klotzbach makes an excellent point. And NHC today says no tropical storm activity is expected for the next two days, which carries into the traditional start of hurricane season.
It’s actually a pretty good scam…keep predicting “above normal” over and over again and when the blind squirrel finally finds the acorn and we actually have an above normal season, they’ll crow and crow about how they got it right and “see, our predictions are good, so believe us when we tell you the end of the world is nigh.”
And the media will fall right into line.
The media, liberals, and greenies are all vile and evil.
They actively HOPE massive hurricanes and tornadoes strike and kill thousands of people to promote their Global Warming scam
There is still plenty of time for the Hurricane season to run its course to a busy season let’s wait and watch.
Story Tip: Fisker cuts hundreds of workers in bid to keep EV startup alive
“Struggling EV startup Fisker has laid off hundreds of employees in a bid to stay alive, as it continues to search for funding, a buyout or prepare for bankruptcy.
Workers suspected layoffs were coming when the company directed everyone to work from home on Wednesday — an out-of-character directive, according to multiple current and former employees. The layoffs were announced during an all-hands meeting held Wednesday morning.”
https://techcrunch.com/2024/05/29/fisker-layoffs-workers-restructuring-bankruptcy/
Just for yucks, I went to price out their cars. MAJOR price slashing on the Ocean Extreme … from $61.5K to $37.5K. They are likely selling below cost.
Replacement parts will become difficult in a few years, as I don’t see this company surviving.
It’s dead. And this the second Fisker EV company to fail.
But the company directors didn’t fail – to milk the subsidies for all their worth
The Senator from Michigan once claimed she could feel the increased turbulence when flying.
https://www.dailysignal.com/2009/08/12/quote-of-the-day-senator-debbie-stabenow-d-mi/
She must have a very sensitive fanny
Hemorrhoids will do that.
and conflates turbulence with flatulence…
OK, so 17-25 named, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes.
My question is this: what IS average for those three numbers? It looks like 10.1 named, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes from what I can find. Their prediction is significantly higher.
As far as these predictions go, all that matters is that they’re calling for above average. No matter how the hurricane season progresses, more hurricanes is going to be on the public’s mind. No matter if it doesn’t materialize.
Average is not the same as normal. Normal should be a range nor a single number for each category. My guess is that the normal range( say 75% of all records) contains their average.
I HATE when they misuse “normal” when what they really mean is “average.”
There IS NO “normal” weather, temperature, etc.
I don’t think they’ll ever define “normal”.
They’ll just keep claiming everything, good or bad, is “abnormal” due to Man-made “Climate Change”.
Man-made anything is “Bad”.
David, while that’s great, average is a single number that makes for easy comparison. I found those averages and it makes it easy to compare with this prediction.
Everything that happens and or is physically possible is by definition “normal” – only stuff that has never occurred and/or could not occur is not “normal”. It’s a meaningless term in weather data, but one that the warmunists in the climatocracy loves to use to make what we are experiencing now something, somewhere in the world at some time, seem “abnormal”.
In statistical science, there is of course the “normal distribution” – but the very concept of the normal distribution is that all data values are considered when counting data, but that the natural variation does tend to hover about the largest frequency of outcomes, arround the “hump” in the normal curve. Even though the two tails of the normal distribution curve (upper 2.5% of outcomes and lower 2.5% of outcomes) are usually discounted in calculating numeric probabilities of a particular outcome (i.e., the 95% probability), the tails still exist and affect the average, the mean, and the standard deviations of the data.
Aside from the statistical matter, there is also the matter that weather on Earth is always subject to variation, and does routinely vary throughout time and space.
You can see the averages for the last 23 years at the bottom of the Observations column
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/SeasonalVerification.html
But the usual quoted average is over a 30-year period.
Thanks; I pulled the numbers I posted off of wiki, so no guarantee what was used.
My understanding is that storms with winds of 40 miles an hour are named, Is that reasonable?
It is 39mph sustained or above. And it is reasonable because these storms can still do significant damage if people don’t, for example, secure anything outdoors.
In our building, all balcony furniture must be brought indoors. A pain, but we have done that many times and have developed a ‘method’.
No.
For crying out loud 39 MPH wind is just a windy day in North Dakota. On JC family picnic we had full plats of food taking flight. Had to tie up my garbage can so I would not loose it down the street. One March day I(still had the stupid 55 MPH speed limit) notice it was taking a lot of time to catch a coke can blow down the snow covered ditch. When I caught up to can, it is was doing 45 MPH in that wind. Also if you could not fish in a 25MPH wind you would not be fishing much.
Well, I live directly on the ocean in Fort Lauderdale. Have been through many tropical storms as well as hurricanes Katrina, Wilma, Irma…
The Named TS definition is sustained winds. With tropical storms (basically a collection of rotating ‘continuous’ thunderstorms, the gusts can be much higher.
Hurricanes and cyclones explained…
The wind is the wind.
I think the issue is it being “named” to leave the impression this “wind” is worse or “unusual” than past wind.
As Rud say’s below, better forecast are appreciated to prepare for it, but, it’s not a sudden or more frequent change in the the weather over time due to Man.
It has happened before. It will happen again whether or not Man is or was here to record it.
It used to be only hurricanes were named and they were named with female monikers.
Not so today.
According to figure 1, up until the middle of May, things were normal, all of that heat has accumulated in just 2 weeks.
That doesn’t sound like global warming to me.
It also looks like the heat content is 2.5 weeks ahead, not 2.5 months ahead as the text says.
Months are more scary than weeks.
I’m 99% sure that Phil Klotzbach is at Colorado State University not the University of Colorado.
Correct. Easy to verify.
“Media Hypes NOAA’s Above-Normal 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast”
When has the media NOT done that?
When has NOAA NOT predicted “above normal” … whatever?
predicting “below normal” wouldn’t make their jobs sound important nor enhance public hurricane preparedness…so the lowest it will go is predicting an “average year”.
And if the NOAA’s predictions prove wrong, what are the odds that the media will publicize them? Next to nothing, of course because governments and green organizations have advised them that if they want to keep their funding and donations flowing, they have to downplay, suppress or ignore any evidence that deflates the global warming myth.
For some time now, the “Headline” at the time is more important.
If the “Headline” proves wrong, no reason to question the “science” behind it.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/failed-prediction-timeline/
It seems like every year the NOAA makes these same predictions for an above average hurricane season. Perhaps this year will prove them true.
What I would like to see is the prediction for only hurricanes that will make landfall somewhere in the USA! How many of the named storms just wander about the Atlantic basin without ever coming close to land?
Winds in northern Africa are currently rather chaotic directionally. The Ventusky site will show the speed and directions. This is important because the wind coming off of west Africa is often (not always) a precursor to Atlantic Hurricanes.
Linking African Winds to Atlantic Storms – Eos
If history is a guide, it could be 10 days to 2 weeks before a hurricane develops and moves toward the Americas. That is because none show now.
Here is an image from August, 2018 for those needing a geography lesson.
National Hurricane Center issues warnings on tropical system off the African coast | wtsp.com
Well, here is an inconvenient truth: the past several decades have been abnormally quiescent
Natural Hazards (2023) 118:571–588 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06019-5
https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/79545/1/79545.pdf
story tip
“NOAA and the media will have egg on its collective face again” – sorry, but there’s never any egg. By egg time the headlines have moved on and they never look back. The forecast is the news, a hurricane can be the news, and the lack of a hurricane is never the news.
Bad news is good news.
Good news is no news.
No news is bad news.