By P Gosselin
Charts by Kirye
The mean temperature data for 2023, for the city of Tokyo, Japan, and its Hachijō-jima island in the Pacific are now available from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).
First we look at latest annual mean temperature plots for Tokyo since 1997:
Data: JMA.
Tokyo has in fact cooled modestly since 1997 – despite the the relatively warm reading for 2023 and the city’s massive urban heat island (UHI) effect.
Hachijō-jima sees decades of no change
Moving offshore to the Tokyo island of Hachijō-jima, away from all the massive urban heat island affects, we look at the latest mean annual temperature data going back to 1977.
Data: JMA.
For Hachijō-jima, 2023 saw a mean temperature of 18.9°C, the highest in about 25 years. Yet, there’s been no warming trend since 1977.
According to the high quality data from the JMA, there’s been no real climate change in decades in neither Tokyo nor Hachijojima, let alone any signs of a climate crisis.
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Telegraph today, in which we find intermittency has a cost:
French ‘rubbing their hands’ as Britain forced to import £1.5bn of electricity
The UK forked out £3.5bn on electricity from France, Norway, Belgium and the Netherlands last year, accounting for 12pc of net supply, according to research from London Stock Exchange (LSEG) Power Research.
………
Britain’s capacity to generate electricity has been impacted by the closure of coal-fired power stations such as West Burton A in Nottinghamshire last March and nuclear stations such as Hinkley Point B in late 2022.
………
New wind and solar farms can compensate to some extent but they are intermittent, meaning spells of low wind or heavy cloud – a phenomenon known as dunkelflaute – can reduce output.
Met Office records have shown that wind speeds last year were below the 20-year average for 11 of the 12 months to December.
Nathalie Gerl, an analyst at LSEG Power Research, said: “The opportunity to import cheaper electricity from abroad reduces the occurrence of price spikes and could mean the overall wholesale price level is lower than it would be without the interconnection.”
The French are rinsing us in several fronts, not least the boats
Plans are to install 50gW offshore . With a massive grid connection comprising large pylons and over head lines down the east coast of the UK.
The utilities have a statutory right to expand the grid and a fiduciary responsibility to maximise profit. Align this with government subsidy and you end up with destruction of habitat, loss of property values and no democratic rights to put a stop to it.
the people who would normally be against this are the Greens – ironically
welcome to the Brave New World
Can the new British submarines, made of electro-furnace scrap steel, and certified to a depth of over 1200 centimetres, to the bottom of the keel, protect all our offshore power lines from the likes of Ruritania, or Grand Fenwick, never mind Belgium [or France!]?
Just askin’
Auto
The only real trend is an upward tick in mental illnesses – via indoctrination and propaganda
From: “”When my dad and brother died, I denied my grief the way we deny the climate crisis. But it didn’t go away
“So began my first bout of climate anxiety. Almost overnight, global warming went from an important but abstract concept to something visceral and real. I was not good company for a while.””
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/20/when-my-dad-and-brother-died-i-denied-my-grief-the-way-we-deny-the-climate-crisis-but-it-didnt-go-away
Bonkers
The real science?:
https://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/2023-02-23-Challenging-Net-Zero-with-Science.pdf
The surreal science
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24021772
I clicked on your link and then followed some of the links in the article.
I now need to go and lie down in a darkened room.
Surreal indeed.
This is what children are being taught
The lucky ones were aborted.
The Hachijojima temperature record shows an appropriate 28 year cycle. What would cause this apparent undulating to occur?
COPs?
Possibly?
Auto
Likely the PDO which oscillates 20-30 year cycles
Don’t worry ! no science was harmed or used by the BBC.
One thing to consider is the nonlinear effect of urbanization on temperature… Tokyo’s UHI effect was probably “maxed-out” many years ago, and so temperature trends over the most recent few decades there are possibly better than trends from small towns that are still growing.
May also be that they have kept their weather stations in a reasonably good condition and urban expansion and infill hasn’t affected them too much.
Any idea where the actual measurements are made?
Great point! Once everything possible is covered with pavement and buildings, you can’t add any more.
Dr Spencer,
Perhaps you could explain why it is that the warming trends in the lower troposphere over the oceans are statistically identical to those over the land, if UHI is the leading cause of the warming?
How can UHI warm the air column over the middle of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans?
Thanks,
TFN
Oh, right, because UHI travels upwards in a discrete heat column to about 5000 metres, the average height of UAH readings, without diffusing or warming the air around it at any point during that 5000 metres. I really don’t think you thought that through, did you?
This isn’t an answer, Richard.
This is arm-waving.
If UHI travels upwards to 5,000m (according to you, with no reference source, as usual) then how does that heat get dissipated out over the middle of the oceans, thousands of miles away, without being dispersed?
This is utter nonsense.
It is an answer, it’s just that you’re incapable of putting 2 and 2 together, pretty typical really. UAH, the lower troposphere dataset that you like to reference, is measured at an average height of 5,000 metres. UAH is also the dataset that was used in the paper that isolated a UHI signal from the temperatures. Now the fact that an UHI signal of 0.7°C can be discerned at 5km up in the air means that a) – the UHI at ground level must have been far, far greater than this and b) – as you quite rightly point out, diffusion, air turbulence and mixing most likely warmed the cooler air surrounding the warmer air for some distance around it.
You wouldn’t know it from the above article, but Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) also produce a GLOBAL temperature anomaly from 1891-2023.
So, instead of concentrating on records for just two localities and using different start dates, why not just show their global data from start to finish?
The chart below shows you why the tricksters at ‘No Trick Zone’ don’t want you to look at that. Just like every other global temperature data producer, surface or satellite, 2023 was the warmest year on record for JMA.
The 30-year warming trend in the global JMA data shows statistically significant warming at +0.2 C per decade, same as it is for all the other surface temperature data sets.
lts very intesting how there is a sudden rise in the trend at exactly the same time as the switch over from glass thermometers to electic thermometers was going across the globe.
Don’t you think! TheFinalNail.
The “Global Temperature” and by extension “Global Temperature Anomaly” are fabricated from manipulated (adjusted) datasets and don’t really exist. There is no Global Thermometer to report from. Most “Scientists” that make those “Adjustments” do so with an apparent agenda (even if they themselves are unaware of it) as their funding source depends on the end product fitting the narrative to further the political agenda.
Even getting published is dependent on following the narrative, if you produce a paper that doesn’t bolster or negatively affects the CC narrative, good luck getting published and enjoy the ridicule and loss of future funding
Global temperature
A hugely funny concept
But only when it’s not going in your preferred direction, right strat?
When it’s a cooling trend you have no issues with this ‘hugely funny concept’.
Hugely funny.
More baseless speculation, real counterargument, just the typical empty rhetoric from you. As expected.
no real*
Walter, look at the side panel of this site. There are a least 2 references to global temperature data series.
red herring.
Do you understand UHI? It would appear not. With continued access to temperature data, we are going to see more and more local stations with no warming. Sooner or later warmists are going to have to ask why. The globe can’t be warming if well scattered stations over the globe do not show warming. Maybe the fundamentals of averaging anomalies calculated from different baselines may be causing spurious trends?
Maybe you can explain how UHI is heating up the oceans and the air above the oceans?
Maybe you can show where oceans have been measured since 1850. !?
You have been asked to show that information several times, and have failed completely every time.
Hint.. the coverage is extremely sparse, especially before ARGO., and much of the numbers are just “made-up”… Even CRU admit that.
Same with Stokes—he never answers.
My question wasn’t answered.
It’s not up to anyone else but you to provide the answer to your straw man premise.
Tell you what, show me a city with airports, highways, highrise apartments, and manufacturing all built on the ocean water, and I’ll show you UHI on the ocean.
Maybe you can tell Kevin “Where the heck is global warming” Trenberth why there is no warming signal in the mid-level troposphere (i.e., THE essential assertion of the AGW gang).
And Trenberth tried his hardest but did NOT find it in “the oceans.” The heat in the deep ocean arrived there eons ago.
What has this got to do with the subject we are discussing, Janice?
How does UHI warm global oceans and the air above them?
Give it up dude. That is a straw man argument you have developed in an attempt to look smart. It isn’t working!
https://owl.excelsior.edu/argument-and-critical-thinking/logical-fallacies/logical-fallacies-straw-man/
The Sun heats the oceans and the oceans heat the atmosphere.
So UHI has nothing to do with it?
Agreed.
So what is causing sea surface temperatures and the air above oceans to warm up?
Total solar irradiation hasn’t increased over the period of measurement.
OMG you are ignorant !!
You really have absolutely ZERO clue about anything , do you. !!
Solar radiance has been high for the last 50+ years, of course the oceans absorb more energy.
Please don’t pretend that the ocean warming is caused by humans… that would be totally moronic even for you.
And you still haven’t produced any evidence whatsoever of human causation for atmospheric warming via El Ninos.. which is all there is.
That’s up to you to explain. UHI is real! If you don’t believe me, then show that UHI is a false premise!
Mr. Nail: Those tricksters are evidently willing to let you and your mates post your GAT cartoons, no matter how many tricks lie beneath your charts. Your friend AlanJ likes the very colorful charts, infilling tricks all well hidden. Your reliance on them is well known here, but thanks for the reminder that you folks prefer propaganda cartoons to math.
There are no tricks in the chart. It’s the JMA data. I provided a link to their site. You do the math yourself and see if it comes out any different.
Your ignorance is becoming legendary…. It comes from GHCN data, which is heavily affected by urban, airport, station loss and agenda-driven mal-manipulation.
It is not remotely representative of global anything…
You didn’t do the math, did you?
You can’t, can you?
I know where the data is from, why would anyone waste time on doing maths with GARBAGE DATA.
Only a moronic fool would think the result actually meant anything.
But that is exactly what you are.
And in that time the population of Japan has risen from 40 – 130 million.
Of course, in your mind, it’s CO2, not urban growth and industrialisation that’s the culprit.
Those are global data I linked to, land and ocean. Has the population of the oceans expanded too?
Ocean data before ARGO is “mostly made up”
Show us where ocean data was measured in say 1900.
Bet you can’t.
Look at UAH global ocean data. +0.12C per decade warming since 1979.
According to you, urban heat in LA, etc is warming the air column thousands of mile away, above the mid-Pacific Ocean.
It’s laughable.
But it’s better than just admitting the truth, right?
You started with the JMA global index, but now, in your feeble attempt at deception, you’re clumsily switching to UAH. Your cluelessness is a spectacle. Your care-free attempts at deception are as pathetic as your overall comprehension.
Ok Walter, maybe you have an explanation for why the sea surface and the air above the oceans is warming at more or less the same rate as the land, and how this is all linked to urban heat islands?
I live in hope, not expectation.
Ocean temperatures have unique characteristics distinct from land. Their elevated thermal inertia leads to less temporal variance compared to land. Temperature fluctuations at specific locations are non-uniform across both time and space. Weather shows no significant relationship with time, which is a challenge in determining optimal averaging intervals, whether granular or wide. Attaining a comprehensive and deterministic comprehension of climate, as mandated by climate science, necessitates precise knowledge of the numerical temporal progression of weather (it’s unlikely that question will be answered in our lifetimes). The close alignment between air and land temperature trends is probably due to artificial intrusions in the data (adjustments), rather than representing the inherent signal of the climate itself.
Pointless trying to explain ANYTHING to fungal.
It doesn’t want facts or reality…
… they will destroy its climate panic mode which is its only excitement in life.
That’s the problem in modern climate science. They don’t know what the words ‘non-linear’ & ‘dynamic’ actually mean in this context. Yet, they continue with their y=mx+b charade thinking they’re learning something useful.
“at more or less the same rate as the land”
Except they aren’t
If you use irrelevant linear trend, UAH land is warming at over 1.5 times the UAH oceans.
Considering urban area is not that big a proportion of the land surface, that is a massive urban warming signal.
Try again, idiot !!
“Look at UAH global ocean data. +0.12C per decade warming since 1979.”
That is equivalent to the warming taking place on land since 1979. So whatever is causing the warming on land is also causing the warming of the oceans. Are you saying CO2 is causing the warming of the oceans?
Look at fungal running away again.
Trying to worm its way out of producing anything showing where ocean measurements were made…
Is there anything more cowardly or pathetic. !!
Oceans are warmed by THE SUN, you clueless idiot !
That’s right, there’s been a warming trend and CO2 probably plays a role in that. Does the run-up in temperature constitute a “climate crisis”? I’ll be 80 this year and I can tell you that the winters are warmer. The IPCC tells us the warming will be at night, in winter and in the Arctic. How does the change from the bitter cold -20°F winters of the ’60s and ’70s constitute a “climate crisis’?
Here in Milwaukee we are in the midst of a cold snap for about a week now but temperatures are only a few degrees Fahrenheit below zero. Nothing like it was forty and fifty years ago.
Warmer weather with CO2 greening, longer growing seasons and more rain is a good thing, not a disaster in the making.
The Earth is still in a 2.56 million-year ice age named the Quaternary Glaciation. Over 20 percent of the land is frozen underneath glaciers or as permafrost. Somewhere on Earth, it is snowing.
Oh, Rusty’s back. Bless his little heart.
All other surface temperature data sets? Except, as we know, the lower-48 Climate Reference Network data set.
All other surface temperature data sets?
No, “global” temperature data sets, as I said.
Before 1979, there is NO temperature fabrication series that could possibly be remotely representative of changes in “global” temperatures over time.
What surface data does exist is heavily affected by urban warming, removal of colder surface sites, manic-maladjustments of raw data, (nearly always cooling the past significantly).
GISS et al are basically just ANTI-SCIENCE fantasy fabrications.
And padded with Fake Data.
And since 1979, all global temperature data sets, including UAH, show statistically significant global warming.
So, what point is it that you think you are making.
UAH shows warming ONLY at El Nino events
You have continued to TOTALLY FAIL to produce any evidence of human causation for those El Ninos.
You just continue making the same gormlessly ignorant comments….
… because you are incapable of doing anything else.
At least now you have agreed with the statement that…
You do know that most of the increase shown is because of adjustments. The graph is not showing measured temperatures.
You could say the same about the Tokyo records; they will have undergone adjustment too. Why no complaints about those? Is it because they don’t show warming?
NO evidence, hey fungal…. mindless suppositories.
Just trying to hide behind your ignorance.
Hasn’t worked before.
Not working now.
You assert the Tokyo series has undergone “adjustments “. I bet you can’t post evidence for this.
Why would JMA show a no-warming trend in Tokyo since 1997, yet confirm the observations of all the other global surface data sets regarding the rest of the reporting stations globally?
Why would they be ‘honest’ (in your view) about one station’s data and lie about all the rest?
Man, you are neck-deep in a conspiracy theory here.
Why wouldn’t they just change the Tokyo data too?
It’s the same question re all these other data sets that have short-term cooling trends. Why would they allow these if they are determined to show only warming?
JMA likely shows no warming trend since 1997 because, as Roy Spencer pointed out, the UHI reached a maximum back then.
Kindly take your risible ocean temperature series and GAT nonsense elsewhere.
Oh, and we’re still waiting for you to post evidence that the JMA series has been “adjusted”.
JMAs global data is from the much corrupted GHCN stable.
Why do you choose to remain ignorant about that fact.
Making yourself look like deliberately ignorant fool. !
Their own Japanese data, actually shows no evidence of much human warming at all… but you will choose to remain ignorant of that fact as well.
Because you like the blissful ignorance that is so much part of being you. You can run around making all sort of totally ludicrous comments, and never bother when they are shown to be based on your total ignorance. That is the way you exist.
“Why would JMA show a no-warming trend in Tokyo since 1997, yet confirm the observations of all the other global surface data sets regarding the rest of the reporting stations globally?”
Because they used the bastadized data that all Hockey Stick chart producers use. They all use the same bastardized data for the years before 1979, even JMA.
The JMA chart was not an independent development by JMA. They relied on bastardized data for everything before 1979, in that global JMA chart.
The next question to ask is: Why does JMA use bastarized temperature data? Don’t they want to know the truth?
Even if that’s accurate, it’s showing a ~1.2⁰C increase since the end of the LIA. Cry me a river…
It’s +1.2C warming since pre-industrial (actually, a little more than that).
To put this in context, it’s important first of all to note that degrees Celsius is itself an ‘anomaly’. For those who hate anomalies, this may be a downer.
Kelvin is the absolute temperature scale. We use Celsius because it’s convenient. Water freezes at 273.15K and we call that ‘zero’; because we are familiar with temperatures in that range.
So +1 deg. C is already an anomaly of the base figure (273.15K + 1).
We use C because it relates to our world; our experiences.
So when global average temperatures rise from around 14C to over 15C, that’s a real problem.
“that’s a real problem.”
Only to the most feeble-minded chicken-littles, and ignorant gormless idiots.
The warming out of the LIA has been ABSOLUTELY BENEFICIAL to all life on Earth.
“So when global average temperatures rise from around 14C to over 15C, that’s a real problem.”
Since when? A “real problem”. That’s funny! My only problem with 15C is it’s not warm enough.
I could use a little temperature increase at this moment.
Happily, CO2 is on the way and it’s going to warm us up in a couple of days.
Wrong—273.15K is a constant established by international agreement, Air temperature baselines (note the plural) are calculated from measurements and are thus affected by uncertainty.
The problem you have, Mr Final, is that nothing in weather is final or even finite which means climate is a huge matter of opinion and very little fact among humans.
There are countless electric storms on planet Earth at any given moment each one embracing and releasing more energy in minutes than humans can create in years. There is the Urban Heat Island effect which becomes very apparent in a UK winters – no heat in towns by day means very cold nights and freezing mornings often lasting the whole day. So much for the temperate clime. And yet the UK is temperate until the jet stream says otherwise. Weather is temperamental and although a human patient’s temperature may tell you it’s above normal it doesn’t ever tell you if something is wrong and what that something may be. That takes thought, experience and knowledge. Mums are pretty good at it but even they know when they are beaten.
Not very long ago, Mr Final, we were told British snow would no longer happen by the Experts (note the capital) who never want to explain to us today how they got stuff so very wrong decades ago. Do you share that sad defect with them?
From your tag it seems you do and you will continue to suffer until you get wise to the errors of your ways. Being wise to the quirks of Mother Nature will make you feel a whole lot better and less inclined to worry about the future. You may even embrace the present, which I realise will be a BIG first for you. I’ll even cheer when you break those barriers down.
All I did was point out that JMA produces a global data set as well as one for Tokyo. You like the Tokyo one because it shows no warming trend since 1997. The trend in the global JMA data is +0.2C per decade warming, so you don’t like it.
Same data producer.
Actually Japan temperatures don’t show any warming just a minor step around the mid 1990s
And from 1998
Oh, Japan again?
We were talking about JMA’s global data.
As I’ve said, several times.
(Awkward….)
You really are one confused little twerp, aren’t you.
JMA’s global data is same source as the highly corrupted GHCN data.
They also have their own Japanese only data.
Try not to remain totally clueless all your childhood !
I talk explicitly about JMA’a global temps and my wee bud B-nasty posts their Japan only figures in response.
He never lets you down! Like clockwork.
JMA’s global data is same source as the highly corrupted GHCN data.
Poor little fungal, can’t argue the Japanese data.
So sadly pathetic.
If you hadn’t noticed the main topic is all about Japan data.
It is your ignorance that tried to call up the corrupted global fabrications.
But we only ever expect idiotic chicken-little panic from your feeble-minded brainwashing.
“I talk explicitly about JMA’a global temps”
Talk explictly about where JMA got their global temps. You are insinuating they are homegrown data before 1979. Is that your position?
And your Hockey Stick chart profile does not correspond with the temperature profiles of the charts Brice posted which both show no warming in Japan since the 1950’s, where your bogus Hockey Stick does show warming. One of those temperature profiles is wrong. I say it is the bogus, bastardized Hockey Stick chart that is wrong.
You haven’t refuted the premise.
“Tokyo Annual Temperature Trend Hasn’t Seen Any Warming in Decades!“
From about 1990 the “climate crisis” doesn’t seem to have had an effect on Tokyo’s annual temperature.
Maybe you could enlighten us.
I’m not attempting to refute that Tokyo hasn’t seen a warming trend since 1997. All I’m pointing out is that, according to the exact same data source that produced the Tokyo data, there is an overall global warming trend of +0.2C since 1997.
Why select one or two sites out of thousands? We know why. It’s because the selected sites are among the exceptions: locations that aren’t warming recently. But the global data suggests that far more areas are warming than not.
Whole of Japan from 1898 shows basically not much warming from 1898 to 1950.
A slight step up in 1950, then level to 1990.
A distinct step around 1990, then level until about 2015 then a slight rise to 2023.
—–
“global warming trend of +0.2C since 1997.”
UAH shows ONLY warming at the 1998, 2015/16 El Nino and the current El Nino.
There was Zero trend from 2001 – 2015 and cooling from 2016 until current El Nino
Are you confirming that the warming since 1997 is totally down to El Nino events.
Or do you have any evidence of human causation. ??
You know that evidence that you have NEVER been able to produce.
Japan.
Global
Two different things, B-nasty.
Global shows no warming in the last 45 years except from EL Ninos
Japan data shows basically a flat trend since 1990 with a slight rise since 2020 from the El Nino.
Now since you didn’t counter the statement below, I assume you know it is correct
“Are you confirming that the warming since 1997 is totally down to El Nino events.”
Also, in the total absence of any evidence of human causation, you are now confirming that all warming is TOTALLY NATURAL.
Thanks.
CO2 is well mixed so it’s about the same everywhere.
Yes, but that doesn’t mean temperatures will rise uniformly.
Many natural forcings, local, regional and global are factored in.
Who said CO2 would cause a continuous and uniform warming across the whole globe?
Do you have any evidence that CO2 causes any warming at all.
You are batting a total ZERO so far. !
“temperatures will rise uniformly.”
Especially when you have already admitted that atmospheric temperatures in the last 45 years have only risen at El Nino events.
TheRustyNail must be climastrology’s official repository of hockey stick graphs.
No, it’s just the JMA data. As I explained, linked to and illustrated.
If it’s a hockey stick you’re seeing, then it’s from JMA, not me.
Data which you now know is from the heavily corrupted GHCN stable and totally unfit for gauging climate changes over time.
They use the same highly corrupted data that GISS et al do.
And of course the massive loss of non-urban stations and massive urban expansion since the 1970 has nothing to do with it, hey fungal.
NOTHING based on the GHCN surface data can possibly be even remotely representative of changes in global temperature over time.
So we can’t rely on their Tokyo data either?
Tokyo might just as well be warming, according to you.
What a moronically empty comment.
Try to say something meaningful so you don’t continue to look like a complete idiot.
Japan have their own network, and there is no evidence of much at all in that, just the occasional step change.. but basically flat apart from those.
“They use the same highly corrupted data that GISS et al do”
That is correct. FN is pretending Japan came up with the data from 1850, all on their own.
No, what they did was get data from 1850 that had been previously bastadrized to create a Hockey Stick chart “hotter and hotter” temperature profile, and added their recent temperature data to the end of it.
Every Hockey Stick chart looks exactly the same and that is because the different groups use the same bastardized data.
How to recognize a bogus, bastardized Hockey Stick chart: Look to see if the Early Twentieth Century is shown to be as warm as today. If the Early Twentieth Century is shown to be cooler than today, then you are looking at a bogus, bastardized Hockey Stick chart which was created in a computer to scare people into thinking the Earth is in the hottest times in human history and CO2 is the cause.
The truth is the Earth was just as warm in the recent, documented past, and this being the case, it should be obvious that CO2 has had no influence on the Earth’s temperatures since it is no warmer today than in the past, yet there is more CO2 in the air now than there was in the past.
The United States has been in a temperature downtrend since the 1930’s. CO2 has had no effect on the temperatures of the United States.
If you take the entire period instead of taking a 30 year period you get +.0008C per decade, scary, what?
I made a basic error in my calculation, the correct figure should be +.11C per decade, still lacking in scariness.
China is right next to Japan. China’s Tmax chart shows it was just as warm in the Early Twentieth Century as it is today.
Your global JMA chart obviously incorporates the data of the bogus, bastardized, instrument-era Hockey Stick chart since it shows the Early Twentieth Century as much cooler than reality..
The real temperature profile is the one represented by the China chart, not the “hotter and hotter” bogus Hockey Stick chart.
Today is not hotter than the recent past. That means CO2 is a minor player in the Earth’s atmosphere. Climate alarmists want to pretend this is not the case.
I can definitely see a pattern here and the Devil’s in the detail. The 4 year old grandson is at my desk with the copy paper and a texta again.
PS: A better example of a close coupled chaotic system you’ll struggle to find and an obvious climastrologist prodigy picking his moments.
The usual reminder that the Tokyo station was moved to a cooler location in 2014, and Hachijō-jima in 2003.
It’s quit obvious in the Hachijō-jima graph. Warming trends either side of a big drop around 2003.
Source?
I understand Hachijō-jima weather station hasn’t moved since 1958
The source is in the links to the JMA data in this article. Both have a red line indicating “data inhomogeneity caused by changes in instrumentation, observation methods and/or site location.”
In the case of Tokyo I had an article saying it had been moved into a park, and this was likely to cause a drip in minimum temperatures. I’ll see if I can find it when I have time.
I don’t know what happened at Hachijō-jima, so maybe it wasn’t actually moved, but it seems clear both from the graph and the fact that JMA flag ut up that something changed around 2003.
Hearsay.
Perhaps you should check your “facts” before posting.
#disinformation #misinformation
Here you go
https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/know/kansoku/info/20141126_relocation_of_the_tokyo_site.pdf
The absolute temperature observations are not the key: the key is the trend. The TREND for the park would also be steady.
The point is that if the last 8 years or so have been cooled that reduces the trend, especially over a short period.
As an experiment, I tried adding 0.7°C to each annual average after 2014 (in keeping with the claimed 1.4°C cooler minimum temperatures.
The trend since 1997 then goes from being a slight cooling trend, to a warming trend of 0.32°C / decade.
He prefers hand-waving to real facts and data.
Isn’t this the point where you complain about trendologists ignoring all the uncertainty in the data?
He set the facts and data out pretty clearly.
Who’s doing the hand-waving here?
You and bellboy are playing handies with each other. !
That’s where the “hand-waving” is.
Hand waving is a major technique of trendology, at which you and bellcurveman excel.
According to the DMS coordinates that “park” is sat in the middle of the most populous city on the planet.
And where do you think it was before the move?
Bellboy DENIES URBAN WARMING, yet again !!
Basement dweller with air-con.. no doubt !
Grow up.
Then try to think. It’s becasue of urban warming that you cannot ignore the move from a warmer environment to a cooler one.
You mean from one part of a warm city to another part of a warm city? Considering that your exerpt is in the future tense, indicating that the move hasn’t happened at the time of writing, then it’s fair to say that the cooling they mention is one possible estimate, not an observed 1.4°C. Is there a postscript showing what the actual observed cooling was? Or are we to take the unmeasured estimate as fact, without any corroborating evidence?
“You mean from one part of a warm city to another part of a warm city?”
Yes. One part of a warm city to a cooler part of the warm city.
“Considering that your exerpt is in the future tense, indicating that the move hasn’t happened at the time of writing, then it’s fair to say that the cooling they mention is one possible estimate, not an observed 1.4°C.”
From the article.
Maybe so, but here are some temps from Naze, Japan.
And your point is? Really, if you want to make claims about specific stations, do the actual work and state what the warming rate is.
Here’s the Annual average.
Warming since 1977 is 0.13°C / decade – very similar to UAH over the region.
Maybe there are problems with the station, there are a couple of apparent jumps, but that’s the problem with just looking for individual stations to confirm your claims.
Did you not read the graphs I posted? They are for January and July. THEY ARE NOT ANNUAL AVERAGES.
Why don’t you show the months that make the annual averages increase so much.
While you are at it, show the anomalies for the months you pick. Then show the 10 year moving averages as these graphs do.
Or, you could do what I asked and explain what point you are making. This article is about annual average temperatures, you use a different station, somewhat to the south of mainland Japan, as a counter example, yet want to only look at two random months.
If you insist on splitting this into smaller subdivisions to cherry-pick here are the trend for each month since 1977, in °C / decade.
Ha, gotta love the ‘high quality data‘ bit
i.e. You had a sneak peek, it showed what you wanted and Bingo – it’s instantly promoted to High Quality
That aside, why should anyone be surprised?
Visit any Japanese Wunderground station to see the the prevailing wind in always (truly prevailing) from the west or south west
i.e It’s coming off China
Those China people did not and are not feeding themselves off of fresh air and good intentions – they are turning their entire country (what isn’t already) into desert via amazingly intensive agriculture
As was reported recently, Beijing fell off the bottom of most all temperature graphs and that air continued across the Yellow Sea and swamped Japan
And China gets drier and drier, ever more colder and drier comes pouring down off Mongolia (and Siberia beyond there), also off Tibet and flows out along that prevailing wind
Did the descending air cause the wind or vice-versa but look at the geography -that air had nowhere else to go unless it wanted to climb out over Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and or Tajikistan
It certainly could have done that, IF, it could pick up any moisture from anywhere in China. But it couldn’t
So there it is, Japan is situated directly in the blast from continental sized air-conditioner – one programmed to ‘dry’, to ‘cold’ and to ever drier and ever colder.
Well, I have 78 years of experience of the climate in the northeast of the US, and I have noticed that there is no noticable change in the general climate. Weather varies up and down but no trend, and certainly not in a general warming direction. This winter in fact has been colder than a well diggers ass.
The rest of the world T° ‘rise’ can be explained by temperature fiddling of English- speaking climate musicians. Here are two artifacts of this practice that whistle blow their crime.
1. In 1998, Hansen at GISS, was disappointed when the super-el Niño did not set a new global record. Indeed the record stood in late 1930s early 40s that was then followed by 35 years of “Ice Age Cometh” deep cooling. Essentially the ‘Warming’ leading up to the super el Niño was simply recovery from the deep cooling period.
2. By 2007 we were in the 9th year of the “Dreaded Pause” in warming. Hansen, aptly referred to as the Father of Global Warming” was retiring and his final act in the face of a debunked theory was a wholesale reworking of the temperature record.
He pushed the late 1930s T° highstand for the century down ~ 1°C to get rid of the twentieth century T° high, remove most of the cooling period to 1979 and give them more degrees of freedom to fiddle more recent T° (they were constrained from just adding on to recent T° by the presence of satellite T° as a discipline. Tony Heller’s work of exposing the huge temperature revisions that are done daily in tiny bits by an automatic algorithm that’s employed can be seen here:
https://twitter.com/TonyClimate/status/1615777655798009857
The telling artifact of this process is that the algorithm has disappeared the 1998 super el Niño (a subtraction from) from the top ten temperatures! Now papers written a few years ago made claims for which the supporting evidence has been segued out of existence! NASA is so upset by this revelation that the came out with poppycock rationalizations about ship sea surface T measurements which were the fiddling work of Tom Karl on the eve of his retirement to stop the Pause!! (I termed this the Karlization of the Pause at the time).
“1. In 1998, Hansen at GISS, was disappointed when the super-el Niño did not set a new global record. Indeed the record stood in late 1930s early 40s that was then followed by 35 years of “Ice Age Cometh” deep cooling. Essentially the ‘Warming’ leading up to the super el Niño was simply recovery from the deep cooling period.
2. By 2007 we were in the 9th year of the “Dreaded Pause” in warming. Hansen, aptly referred to as the Father of Global Warming” was retiring and his final act in the face of a debunked theory was a wholesale reworking of the temperature record.
He pushed the late 1930s T° highstand for the century down ~ 1°C to get rid of the twentieth century T° high.”
I call it deliberate fraud.
Hansen used to say the 1930’s was the hottest decade and 1934 was the hottest year, which he said was 0.5C warmer than 1998.
I think Hansen assumed the warming of 1998, would continue “because CO2”, but that didn’t happen. Instead temperatues cooled for years until 2016 when temperatures exceeded 1998 by 0.1C (see the UAH chart in the sidebar).
But Hansen and the other Temperature Data Mannipulators couldn’t sit still and watch a cooling trend appear before their eyes so they took steps to bastardize the surface temperature record and managed to eck out about 10 “hottest year evah!” alerts over the period from 2000 to 2015. NASA Climate and NOAA came out and lied and claimed that one year after another after 1998, was the “hottest year evah!” and then they would come out and claim the next year was even hotter!
But if you go by the UAH satellite chart, you will see that there were NO years between 1998 and 2016 that were hotter than 1998, so none of them could be claimed to be the “hottest year evah!” NASA Climate and NOAA have been lying to us since 1998.
UAH chart:
See how many “hottest year evah!’s” you can find between 1998 and 2016 on this chart. The UAH chart is evidence NASA Climate and NOAA are lying about the temperatures.
Why do they call it climate change, when all depictions of change are of temperature alone.
Climate /klī′mĭt/ :
Noun. The meteorological conditions, including temperature, precipitation, and wind, that characteristically prevail in a particular region. A region of the earth having particular meteorological conditions. E.g., “lives in a cold climate”; “a prevailing condition or set of attitudes in human affairs”; “a climate of unrest.” American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, 5th Edition.
So by naming it “climate change” but primarily focusing on temperature and weather events in communication .. they reveal the real intent is to create a unrest or upheaval in global public awareness and involvement in order to effect global change, i.e., a global movement. How Orwellian is that.
Agree or not, there is a lot of fakery or you might say fraud going on in the general messaging.
Global – adjective
If it ain’t every where it ain’t global
… it needs to be in every corner of the globe (;-))
why does WUWT for Japan only use the data from 2 stations with an inhomogeneity problem and not from others?
The Japan Meteorological Agency itself explicitly states that these two stations have a homogeneity problem due to changes in instrumentation, observation methods and/or site location. 4 stations within a radius of 90 km around Tokyo do not show these problems and show a clear temperature increase from 1997 to 2023
Because they are catering to the ‘believers’.
If they expanded the JMA data to all other sites globally, then their whole narrative would collapse, as JMA’s global data show.
Can’t have that!
Yep, Japan shows basically no warming apart from a couple of minor step changes.
Large periods of time are basically zero trend.
No evidence at all of human CO2 warming.
JMA global is based on the same corrupted data as GISS et al.
It is meaningless.
Naze, Japan
How do some stations show warming and other none? Be careful of the reasons. Long records that include changing microclimates, are suspect.
For Naze too, the JMA recorded a clear increase in temperature, not only for the annual average, but also for January and July. Different from what you would like to believe. It is noticeable that you do not provide a source for the data for your 2 graphs.
Feel free to check:https://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/view/monthly_s3_en.php?block_no=47909&view=1
Are USA temperatures records sorted by state?
Hi Mike. USA temperature, rainfall, and drought data from NOAA used to be sorted by state and region, which was how I created the graphs for a series of posts and for a book. But the NOAA address I used for them no longer works.
https://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp
NOAA may have shifted the address for that site, but I haven’t bothered to check.
Here’s a sample of the post I prepared:
Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate – Part 10: The Contiguous U.S. | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations (wordpress.com)
And it was cross posted here at WUWT:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/17/extremes-and-averages-in-contiguous-u-s-climate-part-10-the-contiguous-u-s/
Regards,
Bob
Thanks Bob
I was wondering if there is any trends east-west, north-south or coastal vs continental
There are statewide time series here:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series/41/tmax/all/8/1950-2023?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000&trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1895&endtrendyear=2023
For context, here’s the entire Tokyo data since 1990.
This would suggest, even with the relocation that there has been a warming trend of 0.29°C / decade since 1900.
I’m sure much of this is due to urban warming.
Since 1978 the rate has been 0.24°C / decade. UAH suggests the rate around the Tokyo area is closer to 0.15°C / decade.
And here’s the graph for Hachijo-Jima
A lot less warming overall, but the effects of the site relocation around 2004 are pretty obvious.
The warming rate from 1977 – 2003 was 0.19°C / decade.
The rate from 2004 – 2023 is 0.43°C / decade.
Cherry-picking garbage. Choose the lowest point after the 1998 El Nino, and start there.
You aren’t fooling anyone…. even you know your comment is garbage.
Yes, I’m cherry-picking by showing the entire range of data, as opposed to carefully selecting a start date and a couple of problematic stations in order to claim no warming in x years.
In case you missed the point, I showed the warming before and after 2004 because that was the date when the station was relocated. The fact that this lead to a big cool down between 2004 and 2005 is sort of the point.
You are using a UHI signal from the UAH temperature dataset measured at an average of 5000 metres to modify a surface air dataset measured at an average of 2 metres? Are you absolutely sure you want to go down that route?
When it’s a religion, it’s a matter of faith – you don’t let facts get in the way! You don’t require proof, it’s a matter of ideology. And the ideology says that Man via the Magic Molecule CO2 is responsible for all the bad things that may occur, and Man is all-powerful and can change the climate at will, by the peasants giving money to the elites. For their own good, of course…