By P Gosselin
Snowfan here reports how the ECMWF expects up to 3 meters of fresh snow in the Alps by the 7th of November.
Meanwhile, Joe Bastardi also sees signs that Europe’s winter will likely be a cold one (normal to below-normal)
First we look at snowfall for the Alps over the next 10 days:
Image cropped at Kachelmannwetter.
This would mean an early start to the ski season.
According to Snowfan, Europe in 2023 so far has been widespread wet and Northern Europe has been quite cold.
Winter to follow period of heavy precipitation
And at his latest Saturday Summary here, Joe Bastardi warns of a “major stratospheric warming event” shaping up over the Arctic for December, which “really ups the ante for the winter”.
As for Europe, heavy rains are forecast for the early part of November, and Joe thinks this is a signal for cold weather will follow, similar to 2009:
Cropped from WeatherBell
“I think the next 2 months, November and December, are below normal overall,” says Joe. “We got a cold winter for Europe this year.”
So stay tuned. Joe plans to present his next winter forecast update next Saturday.
In the meantime, my firewood is ready and dry.
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“In the meantime, my firewood is ready and dry.”
They want to outlaw wood burning. When they outlaw wood burning, only outlaws will burn wood.
Here on my Lake Michigan Island the wood lots are bursting with firewood. The pellet stove fad is waning, here due to a number of pellet burner fires. The state is trying to regulate external boilers out of existence.
Beaver Island?
From the related articles his forecasts last year didn’t turn out so well, but maybe this time. I’d love some snow.
Joe Bastardi is often pretty good, I’m inclined to trust what he says over many other weather agencies.
The only way to get a sure-fire blizzard event anywhere in the world is to have Al Gore coming to give a sermon about global warming.
Ski resorts should hire him.
The Gore Effect is quite predictable.
“Veteran Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: “We Got A Cold Winter Coming Up For Europe””
Here was Joe last year, headlined
“Ace Forecaster Bastardi: “Something We Used to See In 1970s”, Warns Of “Spectacular Cold””
and continuing
“In his latest forecast, Joe has become “very concerned” about the
coming cold, which is going to be a real problem for not only
people in the US, but around the globe.
“Mark my word, if this kind of cold shows up, that we’ve been
setting up since the end of summer, and it looks like it at least
has merit to consider, there’s going to be a blaming on climate
change because of the blocking that caused it.”
Joe worries that many countries aren’t going to have sufficient
energy to meet the forecast cold challenges, something politically
inexcusable in 2022 with all our modern technology.”
So what happened? Pretty mild winters most places. No energy shortage.
“No energy shortage.”
Are you serious? There was no energy shortage, because the winter was mild. Had there been a harsh winter, there would probably had been many deaths because of an energy shortage.
The point is there wasn’t a cold winter. Bastardi’s winter forecast was garbage. Why would anyone listen to this year’s?
Probably because forecasting the future is hard.
“The future ain’t what it used to be.” –Yogi Berra
So you now think that climate forecasts are garbage too? That’ll be the day!
Nailed him.
Have you noticed that Mr. Stokes makes a silly comment, and his sycophants immediately come to his rescue?
The silly comment here is from old Joe. Does he ever get anything right?
The sycophant responds, confirming he’s a sycophant.
That was easy. 🤣
Fish in the proverbial barrel.
Joe gets FAR more right than any of your AGW cultists. !
He’s right the vast majority of the time.
On the other hand, the climate alarmists have never gotten anything right.
Like nikki, Mosh, silly, tfn and many other fools pretending to be somebody else’s paid mouthpiece.
Another troll that is commenting from abject ignorance. Logical fallacy argumentum ad ignorantiam.
Joe gets more than 70% correct, far in advance of the weather.
It’s tag team trolling.
I think forecasting regional ‘weather’ more than a week or two ahead is a fool’s errand.
50 years of failing to anticipate a single global catastrophe proves ‘climate prediction’ is an even bigger fools errand.
When I was working as a Pilot we had a forecast company that we could phone at any time for a wind forecast for any berth in the river but only for the next three hours. If you called at midnight for a forecast for 03:30 you would be told “Call at 00:30”. They said that anything outside 3 hours was an educated guess.
Yet you are so moronic that you think FAKE models can forecast future climate.
You really are making an abject fool of yourself.. still. !
Climate is weather over the long term. So climate models are also predicting weather over the long term, even though the CAGW alarmists won’t admit it.
So. Climate Change, as you yourself pointed out on another thread, is the average weather over about a 30 year period. Various professional climate enthusiasts, including Michael Mann, Gavin Schmidt et al, have predicted Climate Change out to well over 100 years. This, as you quite rightly point out, is a fools errand performed by and for the benefit of, fools. Interesting to see your true colours coming to the fore! Tara For Now!
In reality, that is a minimum of 30 years! Ocean cycles like AMO and PDO have irregular cycles of 60+ years. So, ~30 years cooler and ~30 years warmer and some effect is seen on Atlantic hurricanes. But the PDO and AMO vary in their phase so there are longer cycles, sometimes the positive (hotter) phases of the two align and sometimes they don’t, or the cooler phases can align. So, unless you consider each half of the cycle a separate climate, it really should be 50-70 years and, in order to rule out the overlap of the AMO and PDO, then it is 100-200 years to truly see “climate change” that is not part of a natural cycle. And to try to “prove” man-made climate change, it is not just 30 years that you should look at (unless the changes are so dramatic that they have never been seen before) but 60+ years, if not 150.
+42X42^42
All kinds of cycles have been identified in the chaotic weather/climate. I always liked the Barycenter hypothesis for the solar cycle. I know it is Frowned upon here at WhatsUpWithThat, but the 11/22 year solar cycle corresponds to the orbits of Saturn and Jupiter. The critical analysis I did see here relied upon Fourier analysis of harmonics. Um, no. I pulled up my now ancient book on Fourier mathematics. (I failed to find a solution in the final exam but exhaustively tried three methods in my answer and convinced the prof. that I actually understood the subject.) First statements in the subject chapter said that Fourier analysis is valid for linear, stationary systems.
Okay! Will Not Work in a Chaotic System. Its like trying to analyze a superhet radio while a naughty nephew is playing with the tuning knob. That is not a stationary situation. It is not linear. The climate is in a state of robust equilibrium with many intertwining cycles. No matter how hard you push one variable, the equilibrium is hard to move. Definitely not linear.
My hypothesis: More intertwining physical phenomenon will make a equilibrium state more stationary, very stable when one variable is changed.
But at least here on WUWT you could discuss it, lay out your theory and data and probably start up a decent debate, and the with the discussion going back and forth, we’ll all learn something more.
Yeah, the climate change alarmists are hanging their hat on half a cycle. The warm part of the cycle. But, if the past is any guide, changes will be coming. It will be interesting to see how the climate alarmists try to explain the cooling.
I think Michael Mann has already tried to deal with this by claiming that any future cooling even for a few decades or two, would not falsify the human-caused climate change claims.
I would love to see Michael Mann shivering for a decade or two.
Not to worry: The 1970’s were some of the coolest times we have seen and I was there and it wasn’t bad at all.
A causal observer could hardly tell the difference between then and today.
So it’s not like another ice age is setting in. The panic in the 1970’s about the cold was because climate alarmists think a trend goes on forever, and they were wringing their hands over how much colder it might get if the trend continued down.
But then the temperatures warmed up and now the climate change alarmists are claiming this trend will go on forever. Climate alarmists are a “one-trick pony”.
I think trying to show that CO2 has a measurable impact on climate, especially given all the historic and proxy data showing that it doesn’t, is a fools errand.
Unfortunately there are a lot of people who are being paid by their governments to make fools of themselves.
I was thinking the same thing – 10 years past due and still Arctic ice pack, hurricanes down, sea level rise the same since the light bulb was invented and we’re supposed to keep the climate faith, bad things will happen soon if we don’t empty our wallets soon.
So you never listen to any weather forecasts, because there is no forecaster on the planet who gets everything right, even on a day to day basis. . Thanks for proving you’re an idiot,
Predicting winter conditions for 2 months over an entire region isn’t a ‘weather forecast’, it’s a guess. He got his guess entirely wrong last year, why would anyone with any sense listen to him again this year?
Predicting CLIMATE even a year ahead is purely A GUESS.
Thanks for utterly destroying you AGW cult meme, .
Why would ANYONE ever listen to any forecasts from a cult who’s previous forecasts have been manifestly WRONG !
Struggling with the difference between climate and weather again, I see. Here’s the latest CMIP3 model mean versus surface observations (GISS):
Climate *is* weather over the long term. If you can’t get the long term weather right then you can’t get the climate right either. The converse is true also, if you can’t get the long term climate prediction right then you won’t get the long term weather right either.
GISS.. so nearly 100% urban warming, then further adjusted to match the models.
So funny that you still think it means anything.
Thanks to UHI and adjusted “data.”
Such nonsense you believe!
Add two numbers and divide by two, smooth it then show it as a 3 month running mean…
Then compare it to one of CMIP models mean…
Dubious dubious dubious, at best. You should be ashamed that you even try such glad-handling fraud.
That graph is so massaged to death the huge El Nino of 1997 is gone. The climate death cult gathering and presenting the data to back up their crazy simulation predictions doesn’t instill any confidence.
Nice graph of UHI, thanks for coming out.
Bogus Hockey Stick charts are all the climate alarmists have to present as “evidence” that CO2 levels and temperatures are correlated.
Actual written, historical temperature readings don’t correspond with CO2 levels. For example, the United States has been cooling since the 1930’s, despite any increases in CO2 in the atmosphere.
Regional temperature charts from around the world do not show a Hockey Stick chart “hotter and hotter” temperature profile.
They show a benign temperature profile where it was just as warm in the Early Twentieth Century as it is today.
They show that at best, CO2 is a minor player in determining the Earth’s temperature. Not enough of an influence to worry about, or to trash our economies over by trying to reduce CO2 output.
So the bogus Hockey Stick chart has caused our world all sorts of problems that didn’t have to happen if liars had not been in charge of formulating a global temperature chart.
The Temperature Data Mannipulators created a global temperature record in their computers that does not reflect reality, and this false reality is what our politicians are using to destroy our nations with their obsession to reduce CO2, when there is no evidence CO2 needs to be reduced.
Only this bastardized global temperature record says so. It’s all they have, and it’s a BIG LIE.
Know the truth, and the truth will set you free.
Climate is a 30 year average, so “predicting” it for next year is simply “nearly no change”.
He got it half right. The Western US had its coldest February since 2004.
The Farmers Almanac for winter 2023:
“Our extended weather forecast, which is based on a mathematical and astronomical formula, calls for below-average temperatures and lots of snowstorms, sleet, ice, rain for much of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Midwes areas of the country, as well as central and northern New England, especially in January and February. (Brrr…)”
Lots of farmers still depend on the Farmers Almanac for long term predictions. And they *are* usually pretty accurate. It’s not unusual for the US and Europe to have similar conditions in winter.
What do your climate models say?
Although Europe normally has milder winters than the northern United States due to the Gulf Stream, there are exceptions.
People often forget than most of Europe is much farther north than most of the United States. Paris is at the same latitude as the US-Canada border from Washington state to Minnesota, and London is at the same latitude as Moosonee, on the south end of Hudson Bay.
During most winters, a parade of storms track from the ocean just south of Iceland, then northeastward, passing north of the British Isles into Scandinavia, and the winds around them blow out of the southwest, bringing rainy but mild weather to northern Europe.
Occasionally, a cold high-pressure area (anticyclone) can build up over Scandinavia, bringing winds out of the northeast blowing from western Russia down toward northern Europe. Northern Europe can then have clear skies but very cold temperatures (due to the low sun angle), and a storm front forms between the cold, dry air to the north and the milder, humid air over the Mediterranean, resulting in heavy snow in the Alps.
This pattern was observed during the February 1994 Winter Olympics in Lillehammer, Norway. Some of the events requiring long exposure outdoors (such as cross-country skiing) saw many athletes drop out due to the extreme cold, despite the bright sunshine.
This winter, we’re in for a strong El Nino, which usually brings wet weather to the western United States, and relatively mild weather to the eastern USA. But air going north over the USA needs to go south somewhere. If it goes south from the pole over Europe, Europe could be in for a harsh winter.
While Europe may have milder winters than much of the US, that doesn’t falsify the assertion that when the US has a colder winter then usual so does Europe. “colder” is relative. If the northern and central US is going to have a colder winter than usual then odds are so is Europe.
I was in the U.S. Army, stationed at Wildflicken, Germany, and was out on a field exercise, sleeping in a tent, and when I woke up the next moring, there was two feet of snow on the ground.
I always thought of Germany as being a cold place. 🙂
“The Farmers Almanac”
I was going to mention the Farmers’ Almanac, but you beat me to it.
While the FA isn’t the Bible, its “prophecies” are better than the climate models!
The United States just got its first taste of winter with freezing temperatures clear down into Texas.
This seems to be about normal for this time of year.
Our local first freeze date is November 1, and we are down to 29F at the moment, on October 31, so right on schedule, it appears.
Again you tell lies because you do not know the subject. Joe, got a majority of the weather correct. Joe only messed up Late December, January and early February. Not wrong, but not right.
Joe nailed the Spring’s cold and length!
The point is there is no climate crisis – outside your cranium
https://www.careourearth.com/record-breaking-cold-waves-during-2022-2023-and-global-warming/
According to UAH, last winter (Dec 2022- Feb 2023) in their Northern Extent land region, which covers land areas 20 degrees to 90 degrees north, was +0.25C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for the region. A couple of places experienced cold temperatures as they do every year. But on average temperatures were warmer than usual.
0.25C LESS COLD.in winter in the UK
ROFLMAO
And you think anyone would ever notice !
You really are still in your little fantasy land aren’t you !
Point being, it wasn’t a cold winter like Big Joe guessed it would be; it was warmer than average.
What EXACTLY was warmer? Minimum temps or maximum temps?
If it was only 0.25C above average.. It was still a COLD WINTER. !
Show me 0.25°C on a real world, honest to god, genuine physical thermometer please.
It’s a statisticians wet dream that you can increase resolution of a physical measurement device using averaging.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/02/coldest-temperatures-record-asia-climate-change
So Joe’s 2022 prediction (guess) was specifically about winter (Dec-Feb) temperatures in Europe. You have posted a series of links to cold outbreaks in Dec-Feb 2022-2023, none of which were in Europe and some of which weren’t even in the northern hemisphere. What point do you think you are making?
What I didn’t link were the ground frost nights in Germany in May, June and July : D
Europe did you say ?
An Arctic Blast heads for Europe, Forecast to Deliver Coldest Air of the Winter Season, Snow for the Alps, and a Stress Test for the Electric grids this weekend (severe-weather.eu)
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/brutal-cold-seizes-northeast-us-shattering-record-lows-2023-02-04/
Looks like a CORRECT forecast from Joe B. doesn’t it. !
Certainly we should NEVER listen to any of the AGW cultists…
… who have been wrong on basically EVERY prediction they have ever made.!
Sleet, frost, snow and -10C in parts of UK as winter takes hold | UK weather | The Guardian
You don’t understand, it’s not data until after the proper adjustments have been made to it. /sarc
Even the Gruniad were forecasting a cold winter
Colder early winter in Europe could worsen cost of living crisis, say forecasters | UK weather | The Guardian
As did the BBC UK weather: How long will the cold snap last? – BBC News
The Coldest Temperatures On Record In All 50 States | Weather.com
December 16, 2022
Every mainland state below Zero !
Ignore that, should have read it more closely ! Oops
Much the same as the “Climate Experts” predictions of the boiling seas.
Most global warming predictions have likewise been garbage. Using your logic, why should anyone be paying attention to them either?
One alleged miss, means his forecasts are garbage?
What about the hundreds and hundreds of misses for the global warming crowd, while we wait for their first accurate forecast.
Yes, like last years hurricane forecast, 10% chance of being right.
Why? Because he got the winter snap in the UK in 2009/10 correct almost to the day, a prediction made two months before in October when the MetO were still claiming it to likely be mild even in November.
Bastardi, unlike the UK MetO has never been the subject of multiple UK Gov inquiries into their failed predictions that cost the nation millions of pounds.
Pretty easy really. And we are due, we get a bad winter every 13-16 years or so.
Nick tends to take the position that as long as not too many people died, it wasn’t serious.
On Aug 29, 2022 ISO New England sent a letter to Jennifer Granholm, US Secretary of Energy regarding the fuel supplies and the reliability of the New England electric grid.
It appears that the New England electric grid has been on the verge of winter fuel shortages for some time…
Some quotes:
Even with the successful development of extensive offshore and onshore wind as well as solar generation in New England, the region will continue to be dependent on resources with the operating flexibility to balance and backstop this variable renewable generation to sustain reliability.
…
During the coldest days of the year, New England does not have sufficient pipeline infrastructure to meet the region’s demand for natural gas for both home heating and power generation.
…
We urge the Department of Energy to stand ready to support targeted requests for exemptions to the Jones Act to allow New England to access domestic LNG by tanker if emergency conditions develop this winter or in the future.
…
Putin was not amused.
“Pretty mild winters most places” Where I am the season is just about into the last month of spring. Europe and the rest of the northern hemisphere should be just about into the last month of autumn. Somebody is confused or has the order of the seasons changed?
Here in Colorado, the first ski resort opened and probably the next to open is making snow and was dumped on this past weekend by nature. Meanwhile, many EVs were unable to make it through the storm and broke down, thus impeding traffic.
https://skiloveland.com/web-cams/
Keystone opens Wednesday and will be the 2nd one.
Thanks.
No energy shortage
But we fired up the coal because, er, we needed it, right?
It was cold enough that the EU and UK floated a trillion dollars worth of bonds to pay part of their citizens power bills.
I thought according to climate alarmists, windmills and solar would make electricity cheaper? Now the government has to step in and give taxpayer money to people so they can pay their electric bills! What happened?
Is it possible the climate alarmists don’t know what they are talking about? Answer: It’s not only possible, it’s a fact.
Predictable cranial sphincterism; how many winters have you spent in Europe since the 1970’s? Picking up one statement by Mr B, which turned out not to happen, as if that somehow “settles” the subject of the weather….completely laughable if it was not so bloody serious. Ask yourself this, why has Germany, among others, resorted to restoring their gas storage facilities…expanded coal production….? Have you clocked how your so called “green” chums have been dumped across Europe because others have had enough of paying massively for their ideologically driven daydreams?
Since the 1970’s in Europe, which includes the UK, I have witnessed many winters with no snow ( middle of England) to some with loads of snow (village cut off for 4 days to most traffic), spring floods from rain. when it did not snow, spring floods from snow melt, no spring floods, temperatures well above freezing in mid winter to well below including many days of 100% sub zero (March, mid ’80’s). Skiing trips to France, Italy, Switzerland, Austria, Germany ( either Feb or late March/early April) with no snow, Spring arriving very early, massive snow levels and equally massive snow falls ( especially once when we were ordered NOT to venture out due to the danger of avalanches ) , all predicted in previous years to be never repeated especially in the 1980’s. Take a good hard look at what happened in 1999 to Galtur – we were in the Montafon Valley in the early 2000’s following the 1999 catastrophic snow levels routinely more than 4 metres lying snow and high winds which lead to unprecedented avalanche activity – many hundreds killed and resorts being partially destroyed – we saw wooden crosses to those who died all over the Montafon Valley.
Please check in if we have a nasty winter in Europe; UK grid has stated already that blackouts are unlikely this winter as their margins should be sufficient – an assumption that a mild winter approaches – how the hell do they know? You certainly don’t …your cheerful ” no energy storage” will warm the cockles of those people in the UK who cannot heat their homes NOW because of the AWG/CC/”green/Cheap renewable policy disasters you and your chums think are “A Good Thing”, let alone what may happen …shortly…
What Nick is saying is that Europe got VERY LUCKY with the weather last winter.
This saved them from disasters with lack of energy supply.
What happens when they DO get a cold winter.. that will be the real issue.
Ditto for predictions of Ice Free North Pole (Arctic). Still Ice up there!. Hasn’t vanished yet.
Not in 2006
Not in 2009
Not in 2012
Not in 2015
Not in 2018
Not in 2021
Not in 2023
Joe nailed October, November and most of December.
Compare that to most pseudo weatherpeople that can’t get forecasts correct beyond two days.
Joe’s winter forecast fell apart when the blocking fronts moved out of position.
How is YOUR weather forecasting, nikki?
Got a record of accurate predictions?
Naahhh! Not even close.
I don’t have any faith in weather forecasts out past several days.
I have zero faith in climate forecasts.
This guy brings to mind the old joke about a weather forecaster predicting a colder winter because the Indians are collecting more firewood, and the Indians collecting more firewood because the forecasts are colder.
Where I live the price of cattle feed has gone up because they’re predicting a dry summer because of el nino.
Nobody is talking about how the Hunga Tongan eruption is going to make the southern hemispheric winter wetter than normal.
The badgers are taking in a lot of leaves.
The birds are flying more southerer.
Our ploughman used to say “If the ice bears a duck before Chrismas it won’t bear a man after Christmas”.
i.e. if it gets really cold early in the winter the rest of the winter will be mild. (In SW Scotland anyway.)
As an ex Postal Carrier, we always expected the first real cold of winter to roll in the week or two before Christmas.
For most of the winters that I delivered mail, there might be a few warm weeks between Christmas and April, but they were clear exceptions.
Where I delivered mail, Pennsylvania, people could not expect to be able to stand on ice until the first or second week of January. That is because it takes time to freeze ice to 4 inches thick, especially if the days are sunny.
Where I live now, 200 plus miles further south, I’ve never seen anybody ice fish. Maybe they do on small exposed ponds but not on the lakes.
Meaning that you don’t know Joe Bastardi or have any knowledge of Joe’s forecasting history.
I’ve been listening to Joe’s forecasts for decades, since he was the goto radio weatherman for the Mid-Atlantic states and major cities.
Many of us could thank Joe for timely forecasts when the TV show people pretending to be weather forecasters were forecasting nonsense.
Since then, Joe has not slowed down and is a founding member of WeatherBell, a professional weather service that is paid serious money for long term forecasts as companies are making long term bets on that weather.
There are some other hints pointing into the opposite direction. A paper describes some “teleconnection” between the IOD and the upcoming Winter NAO which governs the winter patterns in Europe (and US). https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.1005 It finds that a (very) posive IOD in the fall will generate a posive NAO (mild Winter) in the following winter. And in October we see a very positive IOD:
The MSM will ignore these forecasts. After all they have pushed the ‘the end of snow in the ski resorts’ meme for years now. Three meters of snow will simply be ignored.
As they are quite right to do, given this forecaster’s track record.
LOL! Alarmists have such short memories. Perhaps that is part of the reason why they are alarmists? The Rockies got blasted last winter with so much snow that several resorts set new records for how late in the year they closed their slopes and parts of the range are already getting plastered this year.
rah there were some ski resorts that had to close due to “TOO” much snow as it was too deep to run the lifts. I person I follow on YouTube found his cottage up in the mountains of Utah completely buried under 35 feet of snow.
Yes there were several closed for days due to too much snow. Pictures of snow up to the bottom of the seats on lifts well above the slope.
But don’t you realize that toooooo much snow is the result of global warming, er, climate change. /sarc
I was talking about the snow. Next week we will know what they are worth.
LOL! But you have faith in projections of the end of skiing because of lack of snow and every other hairbrained catastrophic claim of the alarmist “scientists”.
Joe’s forecast is based in part on the European model showing a massive strat warming event over the Arctic coming in early December and on a projection of the current El Nino transitioning over the winter into Modoki El Nino. The runs of the long Range European over the last week have held steady on that Strat warming event.
The GFS ensemble is showing the same strat warming. The effect on the US and Europe won’t be felt until around the middle of December and will carry on into January.
“ the same strat warming. “
I beg your pardon! My strat is damned hot….
https://open.spotify.com/track/56mfTLzRXHRqNsy1vAZT1T
I couldn’t listen without signing in. Is it available anywhere else?
From a cultist whose cult has got EVERY prediction they have ever made.. manifestly WRONG.
That’s funny
Certainly NO-ONE with even an ounce of sanity should ever listen to anything the AGW cult forecast..
Wouldn’t you agree, Rusty !
One, allegedly, bad year, proves he’s no good.
On the other hand, zero good years for the climate warriors doesn’t matter in the slightest.
Joe got most of the year correctly forecast. His late December, January and February missed and mostly missed the snow forecast.
A lack of snow meant days warmed more than they would with snow covered land.
Joe got the late cold spring absolutely spot on along with summer.
Joe did mess up the hurricane forecasts as he was expecting a return to hurricane seasons like we experienced for most of the 20th century, this past year.
Now, it looks like that seasonal change is likely to occur next year.
East coast dweebs and letter based generations have never experienced real hurricanes all along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts.
Media and NOAA have been falsely hyping zephyrs into major hurricanes. Four and five category hurricanes leave few trees upright and rarely do palms get to keep their fronds.
A visit to any site that documents Homestead, Florida shows what a category 5 hurricane does to houses and trees. Leveled flat, houses, trees and palms looking like telephone poles.
Yes, most of the newer houses meet new construction codes, almost none of the older houses meet those codes.
A boss of mine was sent to assess damage after Camille devastated Mississippi and Georgia. He said the best description he heard was that a 200 mile wide tornado came ashore.
Friends who lived in East New Orleans talk about standing on kitchen tables with water up to their chins or cowering in the attic until the Camille left the region.
Experts assessing tornado damage examine the same exact parameters to gauge a tornado’s strength. If leaves are still in trees in their path, it’s definitely not a F4 or F5 tornado and unlikely to be an F3.
Camille would have been a F4 tornado.
your idiotic comments will get you nowhere.
I have to assume you live on that tiny island called the UK.
So, you know f-all about farmers and the weather.
FYI it was so awful wet in Wales this summer, lots of farmers could’nt make hay. It was also not so warm as summers go.
Despite the huge hype about the continental warmth in September to mid october – caused by blocking weather patterns bringing low pressure systems over most of UK, Scandinavia and Baltic states –
oh well you know zilch about weather so what’s the point eh?
Just say, high pressure over north africa and the med pushes huge amounts of hot air all the way across Spain, France and the rhone valley and lots of Italy….
Ie, a PREVAILING southerly warm air stream.
Nothing at all unusual about that – apart from of course Joe is as usual right about the incredible wet weather we are having in France, and will be right about early opening of ski resorts.
I will be right up there for the opening this year ON TIME of Val Thorens, and laughing about “niquer le stokes” constant global warming crap.
Get your skis on for La Grande Première in Val Thorens on 25 and 26 November 2023! … The Tourist Office open from Monday to Friday, 9am to 12.30pm
Not easy but also not difficult…
Europe has spent the entire summer under a resistant ridge = the descending leg of a huuuuuge Hadley cell. You might imagine it as an extension of the monster that sits on the Sahara near constantly.
It did that because Europe has been dessicated/aridified, all the water has been removed and vast amounts of its water storage capacity likewise
i.e. Perennial plants, trees, swamps, wetlands and not least, soil organic matter
Because ‘no water’ there was no rising air or convection and so Europe thus rendered itself utterly defenceless against the ridge/high/heat dome or call it what you will.
You can not simply keep endlessly draining air from way up aloft, something has to fill the hole and if there are no active Low Pressure Systems nearby, The Stratosphere steps in and it ‘fills the hole’
IOW: When you are under a Resistant Ridge, the Stratosphere comes down to visit you and the Stratosphere is = A Very Cold Thing.
All through the summer, that is what’s been happening – the Tropopause has been losing altitude. Visist the top of a tall European mountain, stand on a chair, reach your arm up and wiggle your fingers.
Cold innit?
In a nutshell, what Europe needs to remedy this is = A Monsoon.
= where the high pressure ridge collapses to be replaced by a flood of warm moist air powering immense amounts of vertical convection.
This will work to hoist the Tropopause back up to where it should be (take a long ladder up the mountain next time – or even – a cherry picker haha)
See attached, is a screenshot from a random wunderground station in southern central Germany
It shows wind direction, rainfall and pressure for the month of October to date.
See the wind? = Hopeless and from the south = hot and bone-dry (hence = dense) air originating from the desert. The Med is too small to add any water to that wind as it blows north
Then, and where it gets interesting, The Cavalry arrives (highlighted) on the 18th.
i.e. Pressure plummets, vertical convection explodes and it rains and rains and rains.
With any luck and with some heat still in the soil, that rain will recycle itself and with each cycle will jack the Stratosphere back up to closer where it should be.
It will NOT get warmer in Germany BUT – it will hold off the cold.
Or will it – how long is that system/arrangement going to last?
It’s rather worrying for Germany right now as a huuuge anticyclone is just west of Ireland, pumping immense amounts of warm air aloft.
When that air cools, as it will, if it decides to drop down onto Germany, the vertical convection will stop and the Stratosphere will creep back downwards = things get cold.
Fortunately, Arctica is under a huge ridge right now so if that Irish Air goes north, Europe won’t get quite so cold.
So, where’s it gonna go…. will The Cavalry prevail?
forgot to say, look at the actual barometric numbers.
1013 is the cross-over or ‘tipping’ point = what global average barometric pressure should/would be at sea level
So until Oct 18, that station and all the ones around it where way way waaaaay above 1020 = Heat Dome Country
The crossover came on the 18th when if fell off a cliff (and just look at it go!!!) right down to less than 990mB
And there is your Global Thermometer = use the atmosphere itself as a huge self averaging Gas Thermometer – traceable right back to first principles via the Gas Laws and Gas Constant while being utterly oblivious to station siting
So, is the anomalous drop in Global Humidity this year associated with the unusual heat waves that occurred, or vica versa?
or none of the above?
Sorry, wrong image
Peta,
Ventusky 18Oct 2023
I think you mean cyclone.
Ventusky 30Oct2023
2023 is a Year of Record Cold Temperatures – But the Media Are Silent
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/10/29/2023-is-a-year-of-record-cold-temperatures-but-the-media-are-silent/
Don’t worry. The New York Times will report that everything is rosy in Ukraine.
Now sing along,
“Springtime for Zelensky, and Ukrainia.
Winter for Russia and Belaruss….”
Wrong thread.
You don’t think it’s going to be cold in Ukraine this winter?
So did someone else in 1941.
The New York Times also reported that Poland invaded Germany.
That was the point. Sorry if it was too vague.
Joe Bastardi forecasts a cold winter in Europe. Some people question the usefulness of paying attention to a forecast from Joe Bastardi. They cite his erroneous forecast for last winter. Result? Some people go bananas in the comments. Why? Either the man’s forecasting record is good or it is not. That is the only thing at issue. But some people seem to think that comments about climate change are relevant. Can’t see why. Next we’ll have someone predicting that Spurs are going to win the Premier League and people will be giving the comment the thumbs down because there is no such thing as a climate catastrophe.
The reason is that the Climate Caterwaulers have muddied the waters regarding weather and climate. Typically, when the weather appears to favor their climatist ideology, they pounce, and when not, then not so much (although they now try to claim any sort of unusual weather is “climate change”). But to make matters much worse, because of climate ideology, and the resultant attack on fossil fuels and “carbon”, they have tragically and idiotically damaged their energy systems, making winter weather far more dangerous (and expensive) than need be.
Anyone attempting to make seasonal predictions since 2019 will have much difficulty because of the California / Australian brush fires which loaded the Stratosphere with particulates. And about the time those particulates had begun raining out the HT eruption injected substantial amounts of sea water into the Stratosphere and Mesosphere. So, I would not hold a failed prediction against anyone. We are under the influence of a great experiment in nature, and all most people can comment on is a petty trolling argument about climate change.
I find the behavior most annoying…
But then again, most people have no choice but to believe in something or not, knowing is not within their capability, how I envy them.
If you go back over the years Joe Bastardi has been doing these forecasts, you’ll find he has a decent track record – far more ‘hits’ than ‘misses’. Not sure that any other weather forecaster has a better one.
Far better than the UK Met Office, for example, who get things completely wrong on a regular basis – just ignore everything that is forecasted more than 1 day ahead by them.
One clue about Joe’s predictive capabilities is that many people are willing to pay good money for his forecasts.😎
A basic tenet of free enterprise is that a thing is worth what someone is willing to spend (out of his own money) for it.
Some people are smart enough to know that it takes more than one year to make or break a reputation.
Time will tell who is right.
Long Range Weather Forecast – The rest of 2023 | Netweather.tv
Am I supposed to care? All of the decision makers in Europe are adults and need to make adult decisions without being pushed by activists on ANY topic. All I can do is hunker down on the Canadian prairies and hope that the adults in my province has prepared us for a cold, snowy winter, which in my 68 years on earth is pretty much every winter.
The thing I like about the older meteorologist’s is they were taught differently than the
younger ones today. They would observe and analyze and use their past experience as
a base. The newer ones only seem to use computer models. The older ones use
both models and the O&A.
Most of the older ones were fired to buy new, faster, shinier computers for the nerds to play on. The loss of experience has shown up on forecasts since that point.
Mentioned stratospheric warming being forecasted by the European and GFS global ensembles. Here is for the week ending Nov 11th on the European.
The GFS is similar. If this comes to pass and migrates as both model ensembles indicate then both N. America and Europe are in for a colder winter from late December through January than we have seen in some time.
As Joe points out the MJO appears that it will hang out in sectors 1 and 8, which are cold phases for both and which is the opposite of last year when it stayed mostly in 4 and 5.
Further, though it is an El Nino winter and the major government forecasters are basing their probability projections on a typical El Nino winter, this El Nino is not typical. The ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) indicates a strong El Nino but the Multivariate ENSO Index, the Southern Oscillation Index, and the Pacific Tripole are all out of phase with what they should be in a strong El Nino. Joe says the reason why is because of the relatively high SSTs and says “….we have never seen anything like this.”
Though Weaterbells current winter season forecast for the US has remained unchanged from the peliminary.
Joe says that this year his concern is that will be colder and snowier than they have forecasted which is the opposite of what he was concerned about last winter.
these trolls aren’t here to learn. they just pounce on anything that sounds like click bait.. they probably get paid by the number of down votes they get
My solar based long range UK weather predictions have a very cold January, exacerbated by an easterly QBO.
Glad to see you posting. Haven’t seen you much for a while.
I hope so, we need something to wake those Europeans up.
Halloween
Ventusky
Deep low pressure system will pass directly across the south of England on Thursday. The pressure at its center will drop to 950 hPa.
BIG deal.
As usual the media are making overhyping and hyperventilating.
It’s all happened and worse before.
+
Peanuts compared with this one or the one of 1588*.
The great storm of 1987 was a violent extratropical cyclone that occurred on the night of 15–16 October, lowest pressure: 953 hPa.
*The late sixteenth century and especially 1588 was marked by unusually strong North Atlantic storms, ……….More ships and sailors were lost to cold and stormy weather than in direct combat.
Strong gales in northern France and the UK happen regular as clockwork after every equinox.
So what?
This is a polar low.
In 4 days, the center of the low will move over the North Sea, and the pressure in the center will remain around 960 hPa. The low will bring very cold air from the north to Western Europe. A lot of snow will fall in the mountains. In the Alps it could even be well over a meter of snow. Ventusky reports that 3 meters of snow may fall in the Alps in 10 days in places.