The Week That Was: 2023-10-21 (October 21, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “It is a pleasure to stand upon the shore, and to see ships tost [tossed] upon the sea: a pleasure to stand in the window of the castle and to see the battle and the adventures thereof below: but no pleasure is comparable to the standing upon the vantage ground of truth (a hill not to be commanded and where the air is always clear and serene), and to see the errors, and wanderings, and mists, and tempests, in the vale below. — From “Of Truth” by Francis Bacon [H/t John Brignell] — (If we only could, Ken Haapala)
Number of the Week: Up 20%
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: These items will be discussed below. The International Energy Agency [EIA] came out with a report questioning the ability of the western countries to meet their goal of Net Zero carbon dioxide emissions. Atomic, Molecular, and Optical (AMO) physicist Howard Hayden wrote an essay emphasizing the foolishness of claiming climate change causes X. Roy Spencer and John Christy submitted a paper estimating the Urban Heat Island effect on US surface temperature data from 1880 to 2015. There appears to be a conflict of visions among principal players in the UN upcoming Conference of Parties (COP 28). The problems of the storage of electricity are reviewed, with no affordable, reliable solution in sight. Francis Menton discusses the latest fashionable idea from the US Department of Energy, green hydrogen.
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The Green Grid: Perhaps a Wall Street Journal editorial expressed the announcement best, without political embellishments. It stated:
“The Green Electric Power Grid Isn’t Coming
The International Energy Agency says it would require millions of miles of transmission lines.
The International Energy Agency [EIA] said this week that 49.7 million miles of transmission lines—enough to wrap around the planet 2,000 times—will have to be built or replaced by 2040 to achieve the climate lobby’s net-zero emissions goal. This amounts to a plan for everyone to buy more metals from coal-fired plants in China.
Grid investment, the IEA report argues, is needed to carry additional renewable energy ‘as the world deploys more electric vehicles, installs more electric heating and cooling systems, and scales up hydrogen production using electrolysis.’ By its estimate, the world needs to spend $600 billion annually on grid upgrades by 2030.
Unlike fossil fuel and nuclear power plants, solar and wind projects are typically many miles from population centers. That means long transmission lines, some under the sea to take electricity from offshore wind installations. Tens of thousands of extra power transformers will be needed to step up and down voltage.
All of this would cost trillions of dollars and require enormous quantities of metals. ‘Copper and aluminum are the principal materials for the manufacture of cables and lines,’ the IEA report says. Transmission lines also need insulators, such as cross-linked polyethylene and ethylene-propylene polymer—both derived from fossil fuels.
Transformers are made of the same specialized steel used in charging stations for electric vehicles. Smaller transformers require non-oriented electrical steel, used in EV motors. The green-energy gold rush has contributed to shortages of both types. Buyers of transformers ‘face a wait of over 18 months,’ the report notes.”
The editorial lists the enormous requirements for replacing existing equipment then concludes with:
“Where are the materials going to come from? The report doesn’t say, but the most likely answer is China, which dominates global copper, steel, and aluminum production, owing to its lax environmental regulation and low labor costs. Over the past 20 years, primary aluminum production has increased ninefold in China while declining 68% in the U.S.
Metals manufacturing takes massive amounts of power, and coal accounts for 60% of China’s electric generation. In other words, the IEA’s path to a net-zero grid would involve emitting a lot more CO2, even assuming it wasn’t a political nonstarter, which it is.”
Amazingly, the IEA blamed this realization on a lack of will of leaders of Western countries to press ahead with foolish energy policies based on false claims using global climate models embraced by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Its press release on “Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions” states “Lack of ambition and attention risks making electricity grids the weak link in clean energy transitions.”
Whose lack of ambition, the IEA does not say. Is it the lack of ambition by the political leaders of Western nations who made bold promises at the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (COP26) “Together for our planet” in 2020? Do they lack the ambition to seize the authoritarian power needed to enforce their beliefs onto the public in their countries?
Is it the lack of ambition by leaders of Western nations to enforce their beliefs on China, which emits twice the carbon dioxide of the US? The IEA report does not say. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, and Article # 1.
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Due to Climate Change? Atomic, Molecular, and Optical (AMO) professor emeritus Howard Hayden writes the monthly publication The Energy Advocate. The October issue contains an important comment on recent climate change. Hayden writes:
“The nature of the climate in the distant past is inferred from many proxies, such as the abundance of certain kinds of flora and fauna. The geologic time is inferred from certain isotopes, growth rates of layers in what were oceans, and so forth. No particular details are necessary here to conclude that we do not know the past climate on a year-by-year basis. The time intervals were huge—thousands or millions of years.
For the recent past, regional climate is averages of many parameters (temperature, rainfall, snowfall, glacier length, amount of sea ice, size of deserts, …) over 30-year periods. Any 60-year-old who has lived in one place since birth has witnessed two (2) data points for that region.
Global climate is those averages averaged over the surface of the earth. In the current vernacular, “climate change” is (at best) differences between the most recent 30-year average weather parameters and those of 30 years ago. Here is a collection I have gathered from graphs from NASA, NOAA, UAH, US HCN, NSIDC, and others:
• Worldwide average temperature: +0.4ºC
• Sea-level: +55 mm (2.2 inches)
• Daily high summer temp (US HCN stations): –0.4ºC
• Contiguous US annual precipitation: +1.4 cm (0.54 in.)
• Antarctic September sea ice extent: +24,000 km2
• Antarctic February sea ice extent: –9,000 km2
• US percent of days over 95ºF (35ºC): –0.7
• Northern hemisphere snow cover: +0.46 million km2
• North Atlantic cyclone energy index: +0.0
• East North Pacific cyclone energy index: +0.0
• Total global hurricane energy: –25%
• Number of US tornadoes: +0
• Percent of globe in drought: –7
These numbers, none of them perfectly accurate, along with many others represent the recent change in climate—one 30-year average data point versus the previous data point. So, what does it mean to say “due to climate change …,” “caused by climate change …,” “amid climate change …,” “because of climate change …,” “as the climate changes …,” “worsening climate change …,” “climate policy …,” “climate regulations …,” “climate action …,” “effects of climate change …,” “impacts of climate change …,” or any of the other inanities we hear or read daily?
Absolutely nothing. Zero. Zip.
Consider this nonsense: “The increase in September Antarctic sea ice is causing major flooding.” Or is the cause the increase in northern hemisphere snow cover? Or maybe the decrease in total global cyclone energy? Clearly the 120-meter (400-foot) rise in sea level since the last glacial maximum inundated countless coastal villages, and the onset of the Little Ice Age ended the production of wine in the British Isles. The rise of the Isthmus of Panama about three million years ago blocked the flow of sea water from the Pacific to the Atlantic and led to cooling of the Arctic. That is, changes in phenomena can cause things to happen, but climate change, a very broad, vague collection of data, is not a phenomenon that can cause anything.
The Important Message
• Climate is a bunch of statistics.
• Statistics are descriptive, not causative.
• Climate change cannot possibly be the cause of anything.
There are many people in the press, the government, the universities (including all too many physics departments) who are in desperate need of this trivial information.”
No change in emphasis: The statement “Climate change cannot possibly be the cause of anything” falsifies many of the foolish claims made in the popular press. The result may be an example of climate change, but the cause is never climate change. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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UHI: One of the long-time weaknesses continuing in surface-air temperature trends is the failure to adjust for the Urban Heat Island Effect (UHI). John Christy and Roy Spencer may have found a way of adjusting for this well-established effect in the US Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). Spencer writes:
“After years of dabbling in this issue, John Christy and I have finally submitted a paper to Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology entitled, “Urban Heat Island Effects in U.S. Summer Surface Temperature Data, 1880-2015“.
I feel pretty good about what we’ve done using the GHCN data. We demonstrate that, not only do the homogenized (‘adjusted’) dataset not correct for the effect of the urban heat island (UHI) on temperature trends, the adjusted data appear to have even stronger UHI signatures than in the raw (unadjusted) data. This is true of both trends at stations (where there are nearby rural and non-rural stations… you can’t blindly average all of the stations in the U.S.), and it’s true of the spatial differences between closely-space stations in the same months and years.
The bottom line is that an estimated 22% of the U.S. warming trend, 1895 to 2023, is due to localized UHI effects.
And the effect is much larger in urban locations. Out of 4 categories of urbanization based upon population density (0.1 to 10, 10-100, 100-1,000, and >1,000 persons per sq. km), the top 2 categories show the UHI temperature trend to be 57% of the reported homogenized GHCN temperature trend. So, as one might expect, a large part of urban (and even suburban) warming since 1895 is due to UHI effects. This impacts how we should be discussing recent ‘record hot’ temperatures at cities. Some of those would likely not be records if UHI effects were taken into account.
Yet, those are the temperatures a majority of the population experiences. My point is, such increasing warmth cannot be wholly blamed on climate change.
One of the things I struggled with was how to deal with stations having sporadic records. I’ve always wondered if one could use year-over-year changes instead of the usual annual-cycle-an-anomaly calculations, and it turns out you can, and with extremely high accuracy. (John Christy says he did it many years ago for a sparse African temperature dataset). This greatly simplifies data processing, and you can use all stations that have at least 2 years of data.
Now to see if the peer review process deep-sixes the paper. I’m optimistic.
Given the highly politicized nature of climate science (where few articles correcting errors in the work of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are published in the West) and its disciples, some of whom are editors of the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (JAMC); TWTW greatly respects the effort but is not optimistic about the paper being published in the US. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Conflict of Visions: The 28th Annual Conference of Parties (COP 28) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, to which the US is a party is scheduled to take place from November 30 to December 12 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE). Dubai arose from a fishing village to a shining new city on the edge of the desert and the Persian Gulf and is noted for “luxury shopping, ultramodern architecture, and a lively nightlife scene. Burj Khalifa, an 830m-tall tower, dominates the skyscraper-filled skyline. At its foot lies Dubai Fountain, with water jets and lights choreographed to music. On artificial islands just offshore is Atlantis, The Palm, a resort with water and marine-animal parks.” A long-time mercantile hub, the shining new city was built with oil revenue.
Ron Clutz posts an article on what may be expected, which can be called a Conflict of Visions. On one hand we have the UN, which is determined to abandon fossil fuels, which they claim causes great harm to humanity. The UN IPCC supports these claims with elaborate global climate models that fail basic testing. Among the glaring faults is the failure to predict another major glaciation age which is sure to come. Cassie Flynn, global director of climate change, UN Development Program is quoted as saying:
“Climate impacts we are seeing all around the world are widespread, rapid, and intensifying. The wildfires in the United States, the flooding in Europe, the mudslides in Asia – they are all linked to climate change.”
Of course, according to the UN the cause of climate change is emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels. A June 15 UN press release was titled:
“Guterres calls for phasing out fossil fuels to avoid climate ‘catastrophe.’”
The press release began:
“Countries must phase out coal and other fossil fuels to avert climate ‘catastrophe’, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned on Thursday in New York.
‘We are hurtling towards disaster, eyes wide open’, he said. ‘It’s time to wake up and step up.’
Mr. Guterres was speaking to journalists at UN Headquarters following a meeting with civil society climate leaders from across the world.
‘Catastrophe’ looms
He said limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius is still possible but will require a 45 per cent reduction in carbon emissions by 2030.
However, current policies will lead to a 2.8°C temperature rise by the end of the century, which ‘spells catastrophe’.
He called for immediate global action toward net-zero emissions, which ‘must start with the polluted heart of the climate crisis: the fossil fuel industry.’”
On the other hand, we have Sultan Al Jaber of the AUA and president-designate of the upcoming COP 28 who said:
“We cannot unplug the energy system of today before we build the new system of tomorrow. It is simply not practical or possible,”
“We must separate facts from fiction, reality from fantasies, impact from ideology, and we must ensure that we avoid the traps of division and distraction.”
All this is reminiscent of the 1970s when the Club of Rome used “state of the art” computer models to convince many in the West that the world was about to run out of oil. As Sheikh Zaki Yamani, a former Saudi oil minister, said:
“The stone age came to an end not for a lack of stones, and the oil age will end, but not for a lack of oil.”
The oil and gas age will end when an affordable, reliable alternative is developed, but not today and the alternatives are not wind and solar. COP 28 promises to be a rerun of a too-frequent annual farce. No one pays attention to China which produces more CO2 than the US and EU combined and the other BRICS countries that are following China’s lead. They will continue to build coal-fired power plants which the UN FCCC falsely claims it succeeded in eliminating.
See
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/06/1137747#:~:text=Guterres%20calls%20for%20phasing%20out%20fossil%20fuels%20to%20avoid%20climate%20’catastrophe’,-15%20June%202023&text=Countries%20must%20phase%20out%20coal,on%20Thursday%20in%20New%20York. for the UN Press release, https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2017/09/12/end-of-the-oil-age-not-whether-but-when#:~:text=As%20Sheikh%20Zaki%20Yamani%2C%20a,for%20a%20lack%20of%20oil.%E2%80%9D for the quote on the Stone Age and links under After Paris!
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Storage: Storage of electricity is a major problem, whether it is chemical storage in batteries or mechanical storage using pumped hydro or flywheels and capacitors. Before rural electrification in the US in the 1930s to 1950s, windmills were a common way to generate electricity, but they required extensive networks of lead acid batteries to provide brief back-up when the wind failed.
Today, batteries are touted for storage of electricity for purposes ranging from computers to EVs to Data Centers requiring 100MW substations to the Grid. The California ISO (CAISO) has the greatest battery storage capacity in the country, it also has the highest residential electricity costs in the continuous 48 states. In July, CAISO reported that the battery “capacity” (incorrectly meaning the maximum power output) was about 5,000 MW in May. The report did not give the costs of the “capacity.” The actual total capacity of the CAISO battery storage system is 17,700 MWh, so the batteries would be drained in about 3.5 hours if called upon to supply full power. Since the average demand in California is about 24,000 MW, the batteries store less than 45 minutes’ worth of the system’s electrical energy demand.
With its large solar capacity on June 21, renewables delivered at least 17,000 MW from 9 am to 5:45 pm. Natural gas was needed throughout the day ranging from about 5,000 to 6,000 MW during daylight and with a peak of at about 9,000 to 11,000 MW around 7 pm to 11 pm. Batteries came into play only in the evenings. There is no system in the world that operates 24 hours a day 365 days a year on wind and solar plus some form of storage.
It was tried on El Hierro in the Canary Islands using wind power and pumped hydro storage. The average demand was about 4.8 MW with an average wind capacity of 11.5 MW. In the course of a year, it failed about 40% of the time and diesel was required. The failure rate grew, for reasons not reported and in 2022 reporting by the system operator stopped.
Hydro Tasmania continues to report its experiment on King Island with an elaborate system replacing a 6 MW diesel power plant with wind and solar and mechanical storage including a 3 MW battery, 1.5MW dynamic resistor, 2 flywheels and demand side management. (According to Hydro Tasmania “dynamic resistors convert excess renewable energy into a fast-response spinning reserve, meaning they can stabilize system frequency and maintain thermal generation at a more efficient constant load.”) Demand peaks at 2.5 MW and diesel-power are required about 35% of the time.
It is clear that despite claims, wind and solar power plus storage cannot operate a 100 MW datacenter 24/7/365, much less operate a modern civilization. As the president-designate of the upcoming COP 28 said:
“We cannot unplug the energy system of today before we build the new system of tomorrow. It is simply not practical or possible,”
“We must separate facts from fiction, reality from fantasies, impact from ideology, and we must ensure that we avoid the traps of division and distraction.”
See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy – Storage.
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EVs: Some European car parks (garages) have experienced fires that may or may not be related to EV battery failures. According to the Metal Miner section of Oil Price.com:
“However, because lithium-ion batteries are complex, even minor manufacturing flaws can cause significant issues. For instance, a short circuit that results from a flaw in the separator that keeps the positive and negative electrodes apart could ignite a fire. A lithium-ion battery can also overheat and catch fire if overcharged, which is an easy mistake to make.”
A home in Germany using a home electric battery storage unit was damaged by an explosion. In reporting it Pierre Gosselin stated:
“Lithium-ion batteries can explode or catch fire due to a phenomenon called thermal runaway, which is a chain reaction that occurs when the battery experiences a rapid increase in temperature.”
In the 1940s natural gas water heaters experienced explosions and required rigorous tests which were done. Natural gas was far safer for heating and cooking than kerosene. Rigorous tests are needed for the safety of lithium-ion batteries.
Also, one issue rarely mentioned about EVs is the added weight, which is about half a ton, and can be up to a ton (450-900 kg). The additional weight of all those mandated EVs may make some large parking garages susceptible to collapse. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles.
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The Other Storage: Francis Menton of the Manhattan Contrarian continues to call out for realistic demonstration projects for various schemes that can be considered fantasies. The latest is Washington’s Department of Energy schemes for hydrogen hubs. Menton writes:
“Consider for instance the latest news on energy storage. A few days ago on October 13, the Department of Energy announced big new grants and subsidies for a series of what they call ‘hydrogen hubs.’ Here is a report from E&E News Energy Wire. Excerpt:
‘The Department of Energy on Friday announced seven projects that will receive $7 billion to build landmark hydrogen hubs, delivering a major boost to a nascent U.S. industry. The long-awaited move is a key piece of the Biden administration’s climate agenda. On Friday, the White House said it expects the DOE funding to help cut 25 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually, roughly equivalent to removing 5.5 million gasoline-powered vehicles from the road each year. ‘With this historic investment, the Biden-Harris administration is laying the foundation for a new, American-led industry that will propel the global clean energy transition,’ said Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm.’
According to this further piece from Energy Wire on August 21, the Biden Administration has set a goal of having the U.S. produce 10 million metric tons of ‘green’ hydrogen (by electrolysis from water) by 2030. The E&E piece states that the massive funding for ‘hydrogen hubs’ is coming from a part of the Energy Department called the ‘Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations,’ and also cites the Department as calling the hydrogen hubs ‘demonstrations.’ So, this must be the demonstration project we are calling for!
Not quite:
‘DOE envisions the hydrogen hubs as a demonstration of production, storage, transport and consumption.’
I guess at least this is intended to be a demonstration of more than just production of the hydrogen. But still, they are clearly leaving out the critical piece of the puzzle, which is the demonstration of how much of this hydrogen, and capacity to make more of it, will be needed, and at what cost, to get the country — or even some small town — through a full year (or two or five) without need for fossil fuel backup. That completely obvious elephant is not part of this multi-billion dollar ‘demonstration.’
And DOE is not putting all of its energy storage eggs in the hydrogen basket. They separately have another big bucks effort called the ‘Long Duration Storage Shot’ that is throwing bucketsful of cash at various research efforts into batteries. But the battery efforts are even farther removed from any relevant demonstration project. From DOE’s opening webpage describing that initiative (with a date of September 2021):
‘The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Earthshots Initiative aims to accelerate breakthroughs of more abundant, affordable, and reliable clean energy solutions within the decade. Achieving the Energy Earthshots will help America tackle the toughest remaining barriers to addressing the climate crisis, and more quickly reach the Biden-Harris Administration’s goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 while creating good-paying union jobs and growing the clean energy economy. . .. The Long Duration Storage Shot establishes a target to reduce the cost of grid-scale energy storage by 90% for systems that deliver 10+ hours of duration within the decade.’
Menton might have added that the only new source of energy discovered in the last century is nuclear. All the money being thrown around by DOE and others is for seeking new technologies for developing the energy to replace the energy we already have..
Certainly, much government research has been successful and beneficial to the American public. Government efforts in directional drilling coupled with George Mitchell’s efforts of combining hydraulic fracturing with sand and lubricants to keep the fractures open greatly benefited the country’s production of oil and natural gas. However, the current DOE may be too given to flights of fantasy than reality. See link under Questioning Green Elsewhere.
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Number of the Week: Up 20%. Thanks to improvements in hydraulic fracturing and directional drilling Tsvetana Paraskova of Oil Price.com. writes that:
“Crude oil is set to become the largest export item for the United States this year for the first time in history.”
“In August alone, the value of U.S. oil exports, at $10.3 billion, had the highest share of all American exports with 6%, followed by gasoline and other fuels, per WorldCity data. In terms of tonnage, oil’s share was also the highest—at 24%, followed by LNG and gasoline and other fuels.
According to the analysis by WorldCity’s Roberts published in Forbes, ‘the primary oil category will be the United States’ top export when 2023 figures are released early next year.’”
See link under Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
Tree Rings Reveal Largest Solar Storm EVAH!
By David Middleton, WUWT, Oct 9, 2023
Link to paper: A radiocarbon spike at 14 300 cal yr BP in subfossil trees provides the impulse response function of the global carbon cycle during the Late Glacial
By Edouard Bard, et al, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, Oct 9, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Possible explanation of the Younger Dryas?]
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
September 2023 Ocean Warming Crests, Solar Coincidence?
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Oct 17, 2023
Et tu, calor?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 18, 2023
“Oh boo! Not the sun! And here’s the kicker from our point of view: ‘Importantly, the LIA cooling or the MCA warming were not continuous or uniform and exhibited high decadal variability.’ So it is normal, even typical, for temperature to fluctuate not just over centuries but even over decades. Which means a rapid warming from, oh, say, 1980 to 2000 doesn’t mean we’re out of the normal and natural.”
IPCC Global Warming Reports Underestimated Role of Sun in Warming: Study
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 14, 2023
From Epoch Times article: “In a Sept. 27 study published in IOP Science, a team of 20 climate researchers led by Mr. Connolly sought to debunk the 2022 article and reaffirm the 2021 review. It found that the IPCC may have ‘substantially underestimated the role of the Sun in global warming,’ according to a recent post by CERES.”
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gas Primer
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Relative Potency of Greenhouse Molecules
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Jan 14, 2021
“… Due to Climate Change”
By Howard Hayden, The Energy Advocate, October 2023
New paper submission: Urban heat island effects in U.S. summer temperatures, 1880-2015
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 19, 2023
Michael Kelly: The green energy Net Zero plan will require a command economy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 13, 2023
IEA: Grid “Lack of ambition” Endangering the Green Energy Revolution
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 18, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Lack of ambition or lack of blatant stupidity? See links immediately below.]]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Press Release: Lack of ambition and attention risks making electricity grids the weak link in clean energy transitions
By Staff, IEA, Oct 17, 2023
Link to report: Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions
By Staff, IEA, Oct 2023
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Hurricanes twice as likely to rapidly intensify into powerful, catastrophic storms in last two decades: study
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 20, 2023
Link to paper: Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates
By Andra J. Garner Nature, Scientific reports, Oct 19, 2023
“During the same period, Garner also found that the likelihood of tropical cyclones quickly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico has decreased, with a similar decrease occurring in the waters east of the Caribbean Sea.”
[SEPP Comment: Changing Winds? The modern era is the past 20 years?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
New series: #ECS in the real world
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 18, 2023
“Modern climate models have ECS [Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity] values that range from a low of 1.8C to a high of 5.6C.”
[SEPP Comment: From too high to far too high.]
England’s Global Boiling Summer
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 15, 2023
Physicists: CO2 Only Affects 10% Of IR In 3% Of The Troposphere
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 19, 2023
Link to paper: Editorial Comment On Earth System Dynamics’ “Greenhouse Effect” Editorial
By Khmelinskii, Igor and Woodcock, Leslie, Entropy, April 2023
DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.12156.00641,
[SEPP Comment: Disagree with the headline and substance of the article though strongly agree with the claim in the abstract of the paper: “We question the wisdom of a policy of rejecting articles that may disparage the greenhouse-gas hypothesis.”]
The Problem With Climate Change Hysteria Is That It’s Always Wrong
By Mark Adams, American Thinker, Oct 14, 2023
Copper, “The New Oil”?
By David Middleton, WUWT, Oct 20, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Argues that the green new economy would burn through cobalt before copper.]
Keeping You Up To Date On New York’s Progress Toward Green Energy Utopia
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 15, 2023
“Several developers had made bids that had been accepted by the state, and some of those developers were getting kind of close to applying for permits. My prediction was: ‘Expect long delays and demands for lots more money before anything gets built.’ Boy, can I call these things.”
After Paris!
World can’t ‘unplug’ existing energy system: COP28 head
By Robbie Corey-Boulet with Imran Marashli in Paris, Phys.org, Oct 9, 2023
“We cannot unplug the energy system of today before we build the new system of tomorrow. It is simply not practical or possible,” Sultan Al Jaber said during the opening session of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Climate Week, a UN-organized conference hosted in the Saudi capital Riyadh.”
Briefing for COP28 Dubai 2023
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Oct 18, 2023
COP28 in Dubai: A Crossroads of Rhetoric and Reality
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 16, 2023
“In a recent article by Tilak Doshi on Forbes, the convoluted saga of climate negotiations is meticulously unraveled, shedding light on the dichotomy between rhetoric and reality as the world gears up for COP28 in Dubai. Doshi’s article, rich in analytical insights, serves as a beacon of clarity amidst the fog of climate alarmism that often shrouds such global congregations.”
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 18, 2023
“Because you can never meet too often in posh locales. Thus ‘The United Nations’ Adaptation Futures Conference is held every two years around the globe, and the next event is expected to bring 1500 participants to the Garden City….’” [in Montreal]
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Biology Professor: 4000 ppm CO2 “Drastically Promotes Growth Of Representative Land Plants”
By AR Göhring, EIKE, Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 14, 2023
Not the usual wine
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 18, 2023
“So, we’re happy that after endless carping about how all climate news is bad, we find a National Geographic headline “Climate change could make French wine taste better”. Even if they add an obligatory ominous ‘for now’.”
Seeking a Common Ground
Hollow the Science
By W.A. Eliot, American Thinker, Oct 18, 2023
“Science today is no different than any other subject area. It’s no longer about research; it’s all about narrative and agenda. ‘Follow the Science’ is really ‘Hollow the Science’ until all that remains is the accepted, usually leftist narrative, and those who question it even with solid arguments must be neutralized.”
Models v. Observations
Rising Seas and Social Justice
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 17, 2023
Link to paper: Modes of climate mobility under sea-level rise
By Nadia A Seeteram, et al. Environmental Research Letters, Oct 16, 2023
Opening sentence in paper: “Estimates of displacement induced by sea-level rise (SLR) range from 88 M to 1.4 B people globally by 2100, depending on whether the estimates assess permanent inundation or consequences for low-elevation coastal zones as a whole (Nicholls et al 2011, Neumann et al 2015, Hauer et al 2016, 2020, Kulp and Strauss 2019, Oppenheimer et al 2019).”
[SEPP Comment: Rotter compares the models with actual sea level change.]
Measurement Issues — Surface
97,404 Direct CO2 Measurements From 1826-2008 Indicate Humans Do Not Drive CO2 Change
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 17, 2023
Link to paper: Science of Climate Change About Historical CO2-Data since 1826: Explanation of the Peak around 1940
By Hermann Harde, Science of Climate Change, June 8, 2023
[SEPP Comments: Surface CO2 measurements are highly localized, particularly in urban areas. It is the comprehensive atmospheric measurements that interests TWTW.]
Changing Weather
Get your markers ready
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 18, 2023
Link to paper: The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation
By Nils Bochow and Niklas Boer, AAAS Science Advances, Oct 4, 2023
Unprecedented Arctic Melting In 1911
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 15, 2023
From the 1911 Atlanta Constitution newspaper article cited: “’Astronomers studying the planet Mars have noted an unusual melting of the icecap on that planet’ and it is likely that the Martin astronomers have also noticed this phenomenon on our globe and are discussing it. In fact, they are in a better situation to see it than we are.”
The Safe Climate Of 1921
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 16, 2023
Video
Changing Seas
Coralline algal growth reveals history of North Atlantic climate
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 18, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive:
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Blinded by Antarctica Reports 2023
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Oct 13, 2023
Antarctica’s melting ice shelves have unleashed 7.5 TRILLION tonnes of water into the oceans since 1997–Daily Mail
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 14, 2023
“We’re all going to drown – Part 94”
RIP Arctic sea ice
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 18, 2023
Polar bear researchers hiding significant increase in Southern Hudson Bay numbers
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 16, 2023
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
New Study Concludes: If We Artificially Raise the Cost of Fertilizers, Farmers Will Use Less and Grow Less Food
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 17, 2023
Link to paper: US climate policy yields water quality co-benefits in the Mississippi Basin and Gulf of Mexico
By Shan Zuidema, et al., PNAS, Oct 16, 2023
Study: Climate Change Could Lead to Food Unrest in 50 Years
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 14, 2023
Link to one paper: Climate change could lead to food-related civil unrest in UK within 50 years, say experts
By Sarah Bridle, Professor of Food, Climate and Society, University of York & Aled Jones, The Conversation, Oct 12, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Apparently the professor of food is ignorant about what green plants use for food.]
UN Accused of Censoring Climate Recommendations to Reduce Food Production
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 20, 2023
Lowering Standards
The BBC’s “due impartiality” hypocrisy
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Oct 15, 2023
“’Due’ impartiality seems then to look very much like outright bias, a way for the BBC to enforce a hard-left agenda, promoting and defending things its staff are in favor of, and denigrating and attacking things they oppose. It’s an ugly, ugly picture, and they can’t hide it any longer.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
NYT Claims Record September Temperature Indicates Accelerated Climate Change- It Doesn’t
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Oct 18, 2023
“And, as stated before, climate scientist Zeke Hausfather should know better than to write up a scare story about temperature with the adjectives ‘Staggering. Unnerving. Mind-boggling. Absolutely gobsmackingly bananas.’“
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Major Climate Alarmist Fail: “The Hottest Summer Ever” that Never Was
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Oct 16, 2023
The Marathon of Misguided Climate Alarmism: A Review of “Feasibility of the Olympic marathon under climatic and socioeconomic change”
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 15, 2023
Link to paper: Feasibility of the Olympic marathon under climatic and socioeconomic change
By Takahiro Oyama, et al, Nature, Scientific Reports, Mar 7, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Humans who can run antelope and pronghorn to heat exhaustion in high temperatures thanks to their high density of skin sweat glands will fail with small increases in temperatures?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Climate Bias At Sky News–When Will OFCOM Investigate?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 14, 2023
In the UK, “Ofcom is the regulator for the communications services that we use and rely on each day.
Climate Anxiety: We Can Manage It
By Mary Anna Mancuso, Real Clear Energy, October 19, 2023
“Within this complex emotional landscape, there lies an opportunity for resilience. It is not enough to be concerned; we must translate that concern into constructive action. Collective efforts to address environmental issues, champion sustainable practices, and advocate for policies prioritizing the well-being of our planet can provide a tangible sense of agency and purpose. Initiatives at both individual and community levels contribute to the global movement toward a more sustainable future.”
Washington Post: Climate change is the catastrophe to end all others
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 17, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Primary School Children Targeted with Green Propaganda by Just Stop Oil Millionaire Funder
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Oct 15, 2023
The Climate of Fear: Youth Mental Health in the Throes of Climate Change
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 14, 2023
“We live in an age of unparalleled wealth and comfort, where bogeyman must be created because they don’t actually exist.”
Questioning European Green
MATT RIDLEY: The official true cost of net zero is the same as spending £1 a SECOND for the next 31,000 years!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 19, 2023
From article in Mail Online
“’ A study by the National Infrastructure Commission, released on Tuesday, concluded that hitting the 2050 target will roughly double the amount of money we would have spent anyway on infrastructure over the next 27 years to £2 trillion: an additional £1 trillion spent on the green agenda.
For a word that skips off the tongue so easily, a trillion is mighty big. Imagine you were to spend a pound a second: how long would it take you to spend £1 trillion? The answer is more than 31,000 years.
So to have spent a trillion pounds by today at the rate of £1 a second, you would have to have started when woolly mammoths roamed free.’”
Seven Million Smart Meters Need To Be Upgraded
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2023
“Billpayers will be forced to foot the cost of upgrading seven million smart meters which will become obsolete in less than 10 years, the spending watchdog has warned.”
It’s Cold: Germany Fires Up Reserve Coal Plant
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 18, 2023
“Economy minister Robert Habeck said in an interview with German broadcaster ARD last week that the government will not need to reactivate old reserve plants in the winter of 2024-2025.”
What Passes For A “Demonstration Project” Among Our Government Geniuses
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 19, 2023
Green Jobs
Hundreds of jobs at risk after electric lorry start-up files for bankruptcy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2023
Funding Issues
Follow the Climate Money Updated
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Oct 19, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Not much from China?]
Litigation Issues
The Supreme Court of Canada’s Reality Check on Trudeau’s Climate Impact Act
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 15, 2023
“In a recent ruling that sent shockwaves through the corridors of Canadian power, the Supreme Court of Canada delivered a blow to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s environmental aspirations. The court found significant portions of the federal government’s Impact Assessment Act (IAA) unconstitutional, siding with provinces like Alberta that have long argued against what they saw as federal overreach into areas of provincial jurisdiction.”
The Connecticut Green Amendment After Held v. Montana
By David Flemming, Real Clear Energy, October 19, 2023
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
CfD Subsidies Increasing Again
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 16, 2023
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA tightens reporting requirements for ‘forever chemical’ releases, closing controversial loophole
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Oct 20, 2023
“The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has finalized a rule that will tighten the reporting requirements for facilities that use or release certain types of toxic “forever chemicals.”
With the rule’s implementation, the EPA is now designating 189 compounds from a group of chemicals known as PFAS — of which there are thousands — as ‘chemicals of special concern.’”
[SEPP Comment: EPA no longer considers real human harm, just fashionable ideas of harm.]
EXCLUSIVE: ‘Green Banks’ With Political Ties To Biden Could Reap Massive Windfall From Taxpayers, Watchdog Warns
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Oct 12, 2023
“’All applications submitted to the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund competitions will be put through a rigorous evaluation and selection process in line with the high standards of EPA’s Competition Policy, which ensures that the competitive process for EPA funds remains fair and impartial,’ an EPA spokesperson told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
[SEPP Comment: What standards?]
Copper Is Critical for America’s New Energy Economy”
By Andy Kireta, Jr., Real Clear Energy, Oct 18, 2023
“Andy Kireta, Jr., is the President and CEO of the Copper Development Association and the North American Regional Director of the International Copper Association.”
Federal government declares 21 species extinct
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 16, 2023
Energy Issues – Non-US
Dutch Take Emergency Measures As Electricity Network Is Nearly Exhausted
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2023
Link to article: Dutch take measures to reduce grid stress
By Benedikt Stöckl, EURACTIV.com, Oct 19, 2023
From article: “The country’s grid operators warned that the electricity network was almost exhausted in all provinces, mainly due to the growing demand for heat pumps, solar panels and charging stations for electric vehicles.’
From Homewood: “The Netherlands still relies largely on coal and gas for its electricity, up to about 80% at times of low wind and high demand. If the grid cannot cope now, heaven knows how it will be able to when fossil fuels are abandoned.”
More Price Shocks Coming? British Energy CEO: “The costs of [Renewable] projects have gone up … 40%”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 19, 2023
New Zealand Votes to Ditch Jacinda Ardern’s Climate Crusade
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 15, 2023
“People voted for change after six years of a liberal government led for most of that time by Jacinda Ardern.…Ardern unexpectedly stepped down as prime minister in January, saying she no longer had ‘enough in the tank’ to do the job justice.”
Energy Issues – Australia
After “The Voice”: Aussie PM Vows to Refocus on Renewable Energy
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 15, 2023
Energy Issues — US
Ayn Rand on Energy Disruption (Arab Embargo Turns 50)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Oct 18, 2023
“’ The Arab oil embargo was not the cause of the energy crisis in this country: it was merely the straw that showed that the camel’s back was broken. There is no ‘natural’ or geological crisis; there is an enormous political one. It is in the nature of a mixed economy that its policies are rationally inexplicable.’– Ayn Rand, The Energy Crisis, Part I and Part II (November 1973)”
Powering Prosperity: Establishing a National Energy Appreciation Day to Celebrate the Unsung Heroes of U.S. Energy
By Mandy Gunasekara, Real Clear Energy, Oct 16, 2023
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Oil Poised To Become U.S.’ Single Largest Export Product
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Oct 16, 2023
Texas Sees Host of Oil and Gas Records
By Andreas Exarheas, RigZone, Oct 18, 2023
Federal commission approves expansion of Northwest pipeline over senators’ objections
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 19, 2023
“Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) had urged FERC against approving the expansion Wednesday. Merkley renewed his objections Thursday afternoon following the approval.
‘According to FERC’s own analysis the expanded pipeline will cause $8.8 billion in damages and contribute 1.9 million metric tons of carbon per year in pollution to the Pacific Northwest. That is the equivalent to adding 644,000 gasoline powered cars to the road each year,’ Merkley said in a statement. ‘And of course, those numbers are misleadingly low because FERC systematically minimizes the climate chaos effects of fossil gas projects.’”
[SEPP Comment: Photosynthesis is harmful to the US Pacific Northwest?]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Nuclear Go-Round: NuScale, Vogtle, Palisades
By Kennedy Maize, Master Resource, Oct 17, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Euan Mearns’ Letter To The P&J
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 15, 2023
“It appears that there is real opposition growing in the Highlands against wind farms.”
Solar power has massive potential to benefit humanity – with a different focus
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Oct 17, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
“A Saudi Arabian firm named Acwa Power is one of the many that peppers me with news releases, and one of them somehow stood out in the flow: Acwa Power announced the Hassyan sea water desalination plant that will use solar power to produce 180 million gallons of desalinated water, per day.”
[SEPP Comment: A desalination plant in Saudi Arabia is one thing, but how do you power a data center 24/7/365 with solar power?]
“Thrown To The Wind” documentary exposes government destruction of marine habitat
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 19, 2023
Video
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Green Hydrogen Needs Vast Subsidies
By Steve Goreham, Master Resource, Oct 19, 2023
Ready, Fire, Aim: Explode!
By Julius Shanks, Via Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 15, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Special Report on Battery Storage
By Department of Market Monitoring, California Independent System Operator, July 7, 2023
Today’s Outlook
By Staff, California Independent System Operator, (data for specific dates can be found)
http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/supply.aspx
The island of El Hierro, 100% powered by renewable energy for 24 consecutive days
By Staff, Red Electrica, Sep 8, 2021
The King Island Renewable Energy Integration Project (KIREIP) provides a glimpse of what’s achievable in renewable energy.
By Staff, Hydro Tasmania, Accessed Oct 28, 2023
Link to: King Island Renewable Energy Integration Project (KIREIP), 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
EV Battery Costs Could Surge By 22%
By Staff, Metal Miner, Oil Price.com, Oct 17, 2023
Home Electric Battery Storage Unit In Central Germany Explodes, Causing Extensive Damage
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 17, 2023
Video in German
We must put a stop to the electric vehicle revolution – before someone gets hurt
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 19, 2023
From article in The Telegraph
Automakers finally blast Biden EPA plan to hike fuel efficiency rules – Would ‘boost avg vehicle price by $3,000…with absolutely no environmental or fuel savings benefits’
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation said the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) proposal was unreasonable and requested significant revisions. The industry group argued the plan would boost average vehicle prices by $3,000 by 2032 because of penalties automakers would face for not being in compliance, adding the figure “exceeds reason and will increase costs to the American consumer with absolutely no environmental or fuel savings benefits.”
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Oct 18, 2023
EV’s Luton fire just killed the EV market
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 18, 2023
Video of a commentator
Environmental Industry
Climate group will spend $80 million to tout Biden’s environmental record
By Ella Nilsen, CNN, Oct 16, 2023
“He also presided over the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest legislative climate investment in US history.”
Other News that May Be of Interest
The ‘Holy Grail’ of social predictors of public attitudes toward climate change
By Andy West, Climate Etc. Oct 17, 2023
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Biden Guarantees It
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 15, 2023
Video of the guarantee
John Kerry: We Must Reduce Farming To Feed The World
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 15, 2023
Almost everything predicted about global warming 30 years ago is coming across faster and bigger than predicted?
1974: Global Cooling And Expanding Ice Caps “threaten unending food shortage”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 16, 2023
Hidden in plain sight
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 18, 2023
“When we say hidden in plain sight, we mean it. The piece declares that ‘Urban heat is a longstanding, intractable problem.’ And, as noted, it has socioeconomic implications:”
Edinburgh couple fume as they are handed £17K bill by Tesla as they ‘drove in rain’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2023
No Joke: EU Regulators To Require Insurance For Ride-On Mowers, Vehicles Over 6 Km/Hr
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 20, 2023
Precautionary principle, RIP
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 18, 2023
[SEPP Comment: What if “refreezing” the poles creates another major glaciation?]
Prize Winning Photos Of Climate Change
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 18, 2023
“Refusing to fly has lost me my job as a climate researcher”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 14, 2023
ARTICLES
1. The Green Electric Power Grid Isn’t Coming
The International Energy Agency says it would require millions of miles of transmission lines.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Updated Oct. 19, 2023
TWTW Summary: Covered in This Week section above.
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Since the quotes are waxing poetical, my choice is Blake. Just one verse from Jerusalem:
“And did the Countenance Divine,
Shine forth upon our clouded hills?
And was Jerusalem builded here,
Among these dark Satanic Mills?”
These days they are building the white satanic mills upon our clouded hills.
The real English anthem – it actually mentions the country… unlike that dirge we have to suffer
Embarrassing to say the least. Total crap is nearer.
Other numbers of the week 0.007% or 70ppm
Current levels of CO2 are ~0.042% or ~420ppm
The Grauniad’s safe limit is… 0.035% or 350ppm
Do you really feel imperilled by such a tiny increase? I know I certainly don’t.
Meanwhile the UK continues to stagger around like a punch drunk boxer. First Hydrogen is ruled out and the obligatory idea of heat pumps is abandoned – for now. So, what’s the next big idea?
“Households could face additional taxes if they refuse to replace their gas boiler with a heat pump, it’s been proposed.
Emma Fletcher, Low Carbon Homes Director at Octopus Energy*, said there should be a “carrot and stick” approach for people to switch from gas boilers to heat pumps.
Speaking to The Telegraph, she said: “I’ve thought a lot about how you actually incentivise people. Do you put it on council tax – so those who are on the lowest incomes don’t have to pay?”
…
Mr Fletcher acknowledged that heat pumps might not be the answer for every home, and some households may not be able to reach net zero. She said: “Unfortunately, we are going to have to do this house by house, because it’s not just the house. It’s how people live in the house.”
https://www.gbnews.com/money/gas-boiler-tax-heat-pump
House by house…. the waffen klimat polizei will be enforcing their ideology on us?
* Octopus is my current supplier. This is now under review.
“She said: “Unfortunately, we are going to have to do this house by house,[…]”
Not much fun in Stalingrad.
And didn’t the Argentinian military junta go round knocking on peoples doors, at 5 in the morning?
They needn’t bother – we have Sputniks and smart meters doing all that now
And the BBC to pour shame and make you feel guilty
(Nothing new there)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66811312
Not much fun in Londonistan, either.
Sooner or later Americans and the British will overthrow the maniacs ruining our nations over this climate BS. It’s all a big distraction from much bigger problems.
I really hate it when politicians and bureaucrats miss use the “carrot and stick” analogy. It properly refers to tying a carrot to a long stick and dangling it in front of a mule or donkey to encourage it to pull a cart forward. But politicians always want to use the stick to beat the public into submission. Their favorite “sticks” are punitive taxes and consumer product bans. Their carrots are nothing but handouts to favored groups to buy votes and support.
Under the first major topic in the above summary, “The Green Grid”, the WSJ is quoted as referencing IEA statements that:
“Transmission lines also need insulators, such as cross-linked polyethylene and ethylene-propylene polymer—both derived from fossil fuels.”
Not mentioned: high voltage, long distance transmission lines—typically operating at voltages in the range of 70 to 380 kV— require large fused-ceramic or glass insulators to suspend and electrically isolate the energized lines from each cross-country support tower.
— Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transmission_tower , and see attached representative photo.
This WSJ summary gives the IEA estimate that:
“49.7 million miles of transmission lines . . . will have to be built or replaced by 2040 . . .”
Very conservatively assuming that half of that (around 25 million miles) will be replacement lines strung on existing towers using existing insulators; that still leaves 25 million miles to be supported from likely-new (some small fraction might be existing) towers, each of which will require new sets of ceramic or glass insulators.
At typical tower-to-tower spacing of 900–1500 feet (ref: https://www.transwestexpress.net/scoping/docs/TWE-engineering.pdf , page 5) . . . call it an average of 1200 feet . . . 4.4 transmission line support towers will be required per mile of overland distance.
Let’s also assume each tower supports an average of two additional-but separate three-phase transmission lines . . . that would translate to a need for an additional total of 12 of the large ceramic or glass insulators per tower.
Therefore we’re talking about manufacturing something like (25*10^6)*4.4*12 = 1.3 billion new high-voltage insulators . . . all by 2040. Combine this with my SWAG of also needing something like 110 million new support towers fabricated and emplaced across the world, also by 2040.
Quite simply: ain’t gonna happen.
I only had time to skim all this. But I will add my latest intel. This is my busy season and I’m short a guy. Went through my list of sort of temporary jack of all tradesman. Only one called me back from the left coast where he is making @ur momisugly “crazy” money in S. Cali installing solar for a co called R E Energy on large industrial buildings.
But He also told me the residential solar business is starting to come apart. Many of the middle class home owners and renters feel they are now subsidizing the the mansions and businesses of the wealthy and the residential systems don’t seem to pay back or work as well as advertised.
Until the people so generously throwing money at such an ephemeral goal are held to account, nothing will change. Unless, of course, all the countries pursuing said goal are totally bankrupt.
‘Russian military plane ‘carrying mystery cargo’ EXPLODES in fireball’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThgfhPqOI9s
My theory – Elon Musk was delivering a Tesla to Putin.
Story tip
https://www.energylivenews.com/2023/10/23/new-ofgem-boss-addresses-staff-morale-and-turnover-concerns/
Ofgem employee union PCS want the new incoming Chair to ‘In particular, we hope that he will work with us to support Ofgem’s lowest-paid staff during this winter, as many of them struggle to pay their energy billsand are forced to rely on food banks and take on debt in order to make ends meet. Warm words and expressions of concern must be turned into action.”
Well, my, my, it’s Ofgems failures that have resulted in those expensive energy bills, now it’s employees want special support against its own draconian push for nut zero – oh the irony
Story tip
https://www.energylivenews.com/2023/10/23/262-windless-days-demand-prolonged-gas-reliance-says-national-gas-boss/
Ah, those renewables just don’t work – windless days/nights and sunless nights/winters weren’t included in the project spec!
Story tip
https://www.energylivenews.com/2023/10/23/major-companies-call-for-fossil-fuel-phaseout-by-2040s/
I say let those major Companies cut their own fossil fuel use right now, let’s see how long they’re still major, or even in business