And will the pursuit of equity hold back death and destruction from the deadly Climate Change?
A new paper was published in Environmental Research Letters this week: Modes of climate mobility under sea level rise.
It is a bizarre attempt to do granular modeling of the response to hypothesized catastrophic sea level rise with an array of socio-economic indicators. It is a dazzling combination of alarmist modeling of sea level, geospatial flood modeling, “equitable” social justice policies, and economic modeling.
Abstract
Exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) and flooding will make some areas uninhabitable, and the increased demand for housing in safer areas may cause displacement through economic pressures. Anticipating such direct and indirect impacts of SLR is important for equitable adaptation policies. Here we build upon recent advances in flood exposure modeling and social vulnerability assessment to demonstrate a framework for estimating the direct and indirect impacts of SLR on mobility. Using two spatially distributed indicators of vulnerability and exposure, four specific modes of climate mobility are characterized: (1) minimally exposed to SLR (Stable), (2) directly exposed to SLR with capacity to relocate (Migrating), (3) indirectly exposed to SLR through economic pressures (Displaced), and (4) directly exposed to SLR without capacity to relocate (Trapped). We explore these dynamics within Miami-Dade County, USA, a metropolitan region with substantial social inequality and SLR exposure. Social vulnerability is estimated by cluster analysis using 13 social indicators at the census tract scale. Exposure is estimated under increasing SLR using a 1.5 m resolution compound flood hazard model accounting for inundation from high tides and rising groundwater and flooding from extreme precipitation and storm surge. Social vulnerability and exposure are intersected at the scale of residential buildings where exposed population is estimated by dasymetric methods. Under 1 m SLR, 56% of residents in areas of low flood hazard may experience displacement, whereas 26% of the population risks being trapped (19%) in or migrating (7%) from areas of high flood hazard, and concerns of depopulation and fiscal stress increase within at least 9 municipalities where 50% or more of their total population is exposed to flooding. As SLR increases from 1 to 2 m, the dominant flood driver shifts from precipitation to inundation, with population exposed to inundation rising from 2.8% to 54.7%. Understanding shifting geographies of flood risks and the potential for different modes of climate mobility can enable adaptation planning across household-to-regional scales.
with population exposed to inundation rising from 2.8% to 54.7%. It’s good to know that they can predict the exposure to within tenths of a percent 80 years from now. It’s not like there’s going to be any construction or changes to the neighborhoods in eight decades, so we’re good.
The paper tries to check every social justice box with subjective grievance and political categories masquerading as data parameters. I’m surprised it wasn’t rejected by the reviewers because it neglected data about the transgender community.
Thirteen different indicators were drawn from U.S. American Community Survey data (2015–2019; US Census Bureau 2020) and U.S. Housing and Urban Development Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy data (2013–2017; CHAS 2019) to support cluster analysis. We selected indicators based on relevance to the MDC context incorporating correlation analyses (figure SM 1), determinations of estimate reliability, and sensitivity testing (table 1). Indicators are ranked in descending order by relative vulnerability and further grouped into three sets based on similarities: low, moderate, and high social vulnerability. Neighborhoods with higher proportions of people or households under any given indicator are generally understood to have higher social vulnerability with two exceptions. First, in MDC, higher proportions of foreign-born persons do not necessarily indicate higher vulnerability (unless this proportion is coupled with higher proportions of limited English speakers), and second, higher median household incomes have an inverse relationship with social vulnerability. See supplemental methods 1.1 and 1.2 for details.
Table 1. Indicators and associated metrics in the analysis of social vulnerability. For Miami-Dade County (MDC), Florida, United States, profiles of social vulnerability, especially as relevant to sea-level rise risks, are assessed and constructed across census tracts based on these indicators and associated metrics.
INDICATOR METRIC RELATION TO SOCIAL VULNERABILITY CITATIONS SENIORS (AGE 65+) Percent of individuals aged 65 and older living alone Elderly populations are generally considered more socially vulnerable, although higher proportions of affluent elderly populations, who may have lower social vulnerability, live along coastal areas in Florida Morrow 1997; Wang and Yarnal 2012 BLACK POPULATION (BLACK POP) Percent Black population In MDC, high proportions of Black residents in an area are indicative of the legacy of Jim Crow policies, discriminatory redlining policies, and ongoing racial segregation of neighborhoods Connolly 2014; UM Office of Civic and Community Engagement 2016 FOREIGN BORN (FOREIGN B) Percent of individuals born outside United States In MDC, 53.7% of persons are foreign born, and social vulnerability may be unevenly distributed across different nationalities Montgomery and Chakraborty 2015; U.S. Census Bureau (2020b) LIMITED ENGLISH (LIMITED ENG) Percent of limited English-speaking households (all languages) In MDC, high proportions of limited English speakers can signal linguistic isolation challenging access to public services, information, and economic opportunities Boyd 2009; Xiang et al 2021 NO HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA a (HS DIPLOMA) Percent population age 18+ without a HS diploma Education levels are tied to income and poverty, which can shape social vulnerability Morrow 1997; Flanagan et al 2011; Rufat et al 2015 LIMITED MOBILITY (VEHICLE) Percent households with workers aged 16 and over and with no vehicles available High levels of this indicator could indicate vulnerability to extreme events or events where immediate mobility is needed to avoid hazards Morrow 1997; Flanagan et al 2011; Bullard and Wright 2012 POVERTY LEVEL (POV LEVEL) Percent population living below the poverty level In MDC, 15.7% of residents live in poverty; census tracts with median incomes below the poverty level are considered more vulnerable Rufat et al 2015; U.S. Census Bureau 2020c RENTER (RENTER) Percent renter occupied households Renters generally face lower economic loss from flooding but higher rates of displacement and job loss; disaster relief programs tend to favor property owners Kamel 2012; Rufat et al 2015 HOUSING BURDEN a , b (RENTER CB) Percent of renter occupied households that contribute more than 30% of income to housing costs Cost burdened renters pay more than 30% of their income towards housing costs, thereby reducing disposable income and increasing social/financial vulnerability Greiner et al 2017 PUBLIC BENEFITS (SNAP) Percent households receiving SNAP benefits Higher proportions of households receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits indicate food insecurity and social/financial vulnerability Dilly et al (2001); Fitzpatrick et al (2021) UNEMPLOYMENT (UNEMPLOYED) Percent unemployed workers aged 16 and older In Florida, the average monthly, seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from 2015–2019 was 4.2%. Census tracts with unemployment rates higher than 4.2% may be considered more socially/financially vulnerable U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2021) NO HEALTH a INSURANCE (UNINSURED) Percent population without health insurance (in and not in labor force) Ponding conditions from flooding may impact health due to waterborne diseases or effects of dampness (e.g., mold). Greater social vulnerability in areas with lower insured rates Bloetscher et al 2016 MEDIAN INCOME (INCOME) Household median income MDC median household income is $51 347. Census tracts with lower median income may be considered more socially/financially vulnerable U.S. Census Bureau 2020a a Reflects a pooled estimate or more than one metric within indicator. b Housing Burden is the only indicator derived from U.S. Housing and Urban Development Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy data (2013–2017; CHAS 2019). All other indicators were derived from U.S. American Community Survey 2019 5 year data (2015–2019; U.S. Census Bureau 2020a).
Oh look, a conceptual model of exposure and vulnerability.
Those people in the upper right quadrant are TRAPPED. There’s literally nothing they can do to move over a 40 to 80 year period. PERMANENT VICTIMS OF THE DEADLY CLIMATE CHANGE.
And all this assumes a departure from this:
Here’s a longer record from Key West, a nearby area less affected by subsidence as well. BTW, the word subsidence does not appear once in the paper above.
NOAA’s own catastrophic predictions look suspect even in their own presentation. The paper noted above leans primarily on the yellow worst case prediction or even worse predictions from activist sites such as Climate Central. But to make to make it look reasonable, NOAA has cut off the long term record, starting in 1960, aka chartsmanship.
Here’s a more visually accurate presentation, with a longer record, of NOAA’s worst case scenario for Key West.
For more on Sea Level Rise visit our sea level page at EverythingClimate.com
typo???
The paper tries to check every social justice box with subjective grievance and political categories masquerading as data parameters. I’m surprised it wasn’t rejected by the reviewers it neglected data about the transgender community.
Did you mean very or every?
Fixed, thanks.
The stupidity would be hilarious were it not so tragic …
w.
Thanks, you’re gonna love the 6 pm post.
Of course, they seek social justice by imposing very regressive energy taxes.
With reference to the Danse Macabre –
“Who was the fool, who the wise man,
who the beggar or the emperor?
Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.”
The elites peddling climate alarmism and nut zero are not interested in equality in life, it is greed driving their religious zeal
Story tip
https://www.energylivenews.com/2023/10/17/nearly-80-million-kilometres-of-grids-needed-by-2040-to-meet-climate-targets/
Absolutely zero possibility of this happening no matter how much they water down planning laws – just another example of the nut zero madness
The idiotic ideology of “equity” as a desirable social goal promotes a race to the bottom where failure is rewarded and people who make the worst choices get the most free stuff. This is the opposite of what maximizes human development and potential.
Pretty much all of the alarmist scenarios pretend that adaptation doesn’t happen. Funny how the homeless somehow migrate to Liberal cities who enable their dysfunctional lifestyles.
The hyperbole is catching up to the AGW narrative as various polls (for what they’re worth) show people doing more questioning and less accepting. You can only lie about the future for so long until the truth catches up to you.
Hey! The future ain’t what it used to be.
And, when it comes to climatology, neither is the past.
Long ago Gaius Caesar Augustus Germanicus stole Neptune’s treasure. He hasn’t forgotten it….
Another sign of growing warmunist desperation.
Escalating ‘peer reviewed’ silliness.
Yes, and with yet another unintelligible paper written for those “peers” who will laud the Jabberwocky.
King tides are regularly causing street flooding in Florida, (Fort Lauderdale, the Keys) continued increase will only make things worse.
I live on the ocean in Ft. Lauderdale. The king tide flooding is only on parts of Los Olas Isles. The Isles are artificial, made from harbor dredgings. They are subsiding as they compact. Nothing to do with SLR. The solution is to put one way check valves on the Isles street drains.
Unfortunately, Phil and others believe whatever idiocy the MSM says about the climate without challenging it. However, perhaps, if his career or neighborhood was threatened by the nut zero crowd, he may wake up.
Joseph,
Poor Phil is hypnotized; like all the Marxist true believers! His mind is filled with thought viruses that cannot be removed but for the intervention of gentle caregivers, who try to gently return him to reality with small doses of facts and data!
As we can see with our resident alarmists, like Lil Nicky and others, the trance state is powerful; and cannot easily be broken. Our Sisyphean task is to try to wake up the lightly slumbering individuals while pushing back against the weight of the propaganda dumped on us by the billionaires pushing the worldwide Climatocracy! Given the chance, they will build the Green Blob into a giant, sacrificial pyramid that rides on the backs of the poor; while they continue to enjoy their lavish lifestyle at the apex!
Parts of Charleston SC also flood at such times. They could fix it with a small amount of seawall work and maybe just some caps on drainage that only let water flow one way. It’s not exactly a Thames Barrier that needs to be built.
The times I had to wade home waist deep in water were caused by thunderstorms.
Seawall construction isn’t going to work in the Keys since the seawater percolates through the porous limestone. Whether the local sea level rise is due to subsidence as well as global sea level rise it will have the same effect on the residential areas.
So, absolutely nothing to do with human released CO2… thanks 🙂
And people will have plenty of time to move if necessary. Since when is it that all people must be protected from any and all possible negative events? Life is full of negative events we must adjust to. Or, I suppose, we could spend quadrillions of dollars to protect those living near a trivially rising sea? Those pushing the climate horror show didn’t do much to protect millions of blue collar workers whose jobs move to China or Mexico, because it meant cheaper goods for themselves. America’s main streets are mostly now a wasteland except in communities where elites live, like Martha’s Vineyard here in Wokeachusetts, the mecca of the climate cult, in my opinion.
Phil,
My suggestion to you is that you do some reading about land subsidence and its causes. It isn’t hard to confuse it for sea level rise once you understand it. It is frustrating to see so much talk about SLR without a word being said about land subsidence. Ignorance is not necessarily bliss.
You can start reading here if you wish:
Land Subsidence | U.S. Geological Survey (usgs.gov)
Thanks Charles, I haven’t had such a good laugh in months. It sure reinforces the bit that PHD stands for ‘Piled Higher and Deeper’ :<)
Isn’t it another jolly hockey stick?
Yes. Boring, sticklike data for 100s of years leading to curved blade that can’t be checked for accuracy until 30 years in the future. It’s MS Excel curve fit art.
“It’s good to know that they can predict the exposure to within tenths of a percent 80 years from now.” Lol
Reminds me of how the state of Wokeachusetts once gave a figure for how much wood was in the forests in the state- to 6 decimal places based on a statistical sample of 1 acre per 6000 acres. I tried to point out the absurdity- and they just looked at me like a deer in the headlights.
The Democrats have been hyping accelerating sea level rise for over 35 years since the politically contrived 1988 Senate hearings on “global warming” with claims that sea level rise had already accelerated to 2.5 inches per decade at the 1988 levels of atmospheric CO2 level at that time. “Scientists” further claimed at the hearings that if CO2 continued to rise sea level rise would further accelerate well beyond the 2.5 inch per decade. CO2 emissions were about 20.8 billion metric tons in 1988 and have now reached about 34.4 billion metric tons. Sea level rise based on NOSS tide gauge data shows negligible sea level rise acceleration. How many more decades are we supposed to believe this Democrat driven climate alarmist sea level rise acceleration garbage?
“How many more decades are we supposed to believe this Democrat
driven climate alarmist sea level rise acceleration garbage?”
__________________________________________________________________
When the Democrats (Communists) achieve one party rule in the United States. When that happens, Climate Change will be forgotten
What, no Venn diagrams. How do they expect our vice president to sign on?
Well she does appear to tick the right box for the ‘limited english’ category.
Extrapolation is always fraught with difficulties. However, it seems to me that when what is essentially a linear change for about 110 years suddenly changes to a quadratic or higher-order function, a physical reason for the change in character is begging to be provided. Just wanting it to be so, doesn’t cut it.
Good comment. The worst part is that the physical reason that the alarmists do provide for their projections (increasing CO2) has been falsified by the fact that the rate of sea level rise did not materially change in the past with increasing CO2 levels. Every NOAA sea level graph based on tide gauges that I’ve ever seen illustrates that reality. There are a few such graphs in the article. Other NOAA graphs are all the same, no matter what location they represent. Some show rising sea level. Others show falling sea level. But none shows accelerating rise sufficient to justify the strange projections of the IPCC.
Whit a wheen ae maunderin’ gobshites. Ill bet noone with half a brain could read this crap to the end without the brain expiring
I note below below below that the globe has cooled a tenth of a degree Fahrenheit since early August
This is hogwash. Not a speck of evidence that we are facing a climate crisis. Worse they are treating elderly, immigrants, poor and non English speakers like they are less than human. These knuckle draggers need a trip to the woodshed. They are disgusting.
whatever it takes to get the votes on election day
“Those people in the upper right quadrant are TRAPPED. There’s literally nothing they can do to move
over a40 to 80 yards further from the beachyear period.”Fixed it.
I just hope nobody drowns.
Nadia A. Seeteram Postdoctoral Research Scientist, Columbia Climate School
Dr. Kevin Ash a human-environment geographer with expertise in environmental hazards topics such as vulnerability, resilience, risk communication and perception, evacuation, and disaster loss data. Associate Professor, University of Florida
Brett F. Sanders. Flooding and erosion has emerged as one the greatest climate challenges facing the world. Losses are escalating at an alarming rate, and millions of people are impacted by flooding every year. University of California, Irvine.
Jochen E. Schubert. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
Katharine Mach is a Professor at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, & Earth Science and a faculty scholar at the UM Abess Center, focused on environmental science and policy. Her research assesses climate change risks and response options to address increased flooding, extreme heat, wildfire, and other hazards.
There they are; five professional academicians whose scientific investigations are premised on the idea that there in fact is: climate change and subsequent sea level rise, the poor and minorities being hardest hit. I wonder how many of them live here.
Their only academic career path forward is to publish such nonsense and pretend they believe it. A ‘problem’ like the lamented lack of feminine glaciologists.
Pretty amazing that someone has the balls to build a 100 story building in hurricane alley. It looks to be made with a lot of glass too.
My house is at 2,240 feet (683 m.) and (high probability) I won’t be here in 2060.
If I am still here, I will be famous as one of the oldest living humans. In the top 30.
Nevertheless, when confronted with a statement of 1 to 2 m (or even the 0.7 m) of SLR,
the question is: Where is that much water to come from?
I live at about 3500 feet altitude. This area of eastern Nevada shares in the Arizona monsoon season, which many people know produces frequent flash floods in parts of Arizona.
Here we are only on the fringes of those storms, or maybe the geography doesn’t let so many of them in. Anyway, being a fairly recent resident, I asked whether thunderstorms ever caused flooding damage. I was told yes (but not where my house is situated). So perhaps some local residents belong in the misplaced or trapped categories. Should I register a discrimination complaint about being left out of their study?
The authors probably submitted the paper before the Hollywood writers strike ended. Sorry, ladies and gentlemen, it’s too late now.
Bloomberg estimates the cost to stop warming by stopping CO2 increases by 2050 is $US200 trillion.
The only group that could afford to pay that much is the wealthy, who have $US208 trillion in wealth.
A 95% worldwide wealth tax to stop CO2 increase has about as much chance of passing as my dog has of going to the moon.
If the working class has to pay, it would be about $US1 million or about $US35,000 per year for 27 years.
Almost every working family would rather have the $US1 million in the bank and a degree or two of warming.
The whole idea doesn’t make any financial sense.
Does your dog like green cheese?
I don’t even have a dog. That makes it even more impossible.
Bloomberg again
“And will the pursuit of
equityMarxism hold back death and destruction from the deadly Climate Change?”Marxism can fix problems with anything. /sarc
so we’ve gone from the hockey stick to the field hockey stick. what a bunch of horse hockey.
Every single student from grade school to post grad who took the shown data and drew the red line exponential projection going forward on a test would be failed in any subject except climate science.
Looking at the graph reminded me of Mann’s hockey stick. My understanding is that Mann got his results by using tree ring data at the start and then tacking measured temperatures on near the end. Has anyone plotted a graph using only tree rings? I am curious what that graph would look like.
Here is what happens if you DON’T use the tree ring circus.
Even if the Mickey Mann stick wasn’t basically mal-mathematics…
… all the tree rings do is expose the low levels of CO2 during the MWP…
… until humans started saving the planet’s plant life by turning the carbon cycle back on a bit.
As SLR increases from 1 to 2 m..
Let’s sea… 2m @ 2.75mm/yr = approx 730 years
That should give most people time to do something…
…like maybe buy some floaties ?
Obligatory:
Second attempt
And Stockholm is rebounding by between 0.5 and 1cm/yr
So people without vehicles and living near the ocean will be trapped and can’t escape sea-level rise in 80 years? Somehow, people manage to get away from the coast within a single DAY when a hurricane approaches Miami !
Anyone who knows the geography of Miami knows that the areas most vulnerable to sea level rise are on Miami Beach, a barrier island to the east of the Intracoastal Waterway, which is built up with hundreds of high-rise condominium buildings, and the residents are mostly affluent and easily able to afford a vehicle. These residents seem to be in no hurry to leave, as the sale price of these condos keeps on rising. The poorer residents of Miami are inland to the west, whose homes are less vulnerable to sea-level rise.
Oh, by the way, there are free trolley buses available on Miami Beach which run about 4 times an hour, for those who don’t own a vehicle.
The article’s contention about “limited English” is also erroneous, since most government officials in Miami (including the mayor) are bilingual English / Spanish, due to the large population of Cuban-Americans who settled in Miami after the Castro regime took over in Cuba.
Have the geniuses who wrote this article ever been to Miami?