This year, the popular music festival Burning Man, which is held in the Black Rock Desert area of Nevada, was interrupted by a rainstorm that left many participants stranded. Wired and The Conversation, among other media outlets, attributed the rain storm, as well as the heat wave the area experienced a few weeks prior, to human-caused climate change. This is false. The recent rains were made more intense by the aftermath of hurricane Hilary, and neither “monsoon” rains, nor heatwaves, are an unprecedented or even rare in the region.
In a story posted by Wired, “Climate Change Has Finally Come for Burning Man,” contributor Chris Stokel-Walker writes that the downpour that trapped many festival-goers was caused by climate change. He wrote:
Extreme weather wrought by climate change, which is resulting in increasing amounts of rain being dumped on the southwestern US states at this time of year. “These sorts of heavy summer rainfall events in the region are expected, as the well-known southwestern summer monsoon is expected to yield larger amounts of rainfall in a warming climate,” says Michael Mann, presidential distinguished professor in the University of Pennsylvania’s Department of Earth and Environmental Science.
A piece in The Conversation took a more balanced approach, pointing out that bad weather striking a festival isn’t new, that “[t]he legendary 1969 Woodstock festival in New York State was also a mud pit.”
Along with reasonably suggesting that festival planners take potential weather problems into account, The Conversation unfortunately also claims that “[a]s we heat the planet, we’re getting more frequent, intense and longer-lasting heatwaves across the world. We also know we’re seeing more and more intense short-duration downpours which cause flash flooding.”
These claims are also false.
To Dr. Mann and Wired’s credit, the summer monsoon is a real season in the southwest, and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has “high confidence” that precipitation in general has increased over the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This has not led to more flooding, however, according to the IPCC as discussed in Climate at a Glance: Floods.
Heatwaves likewise do not appear to be getting worse in the United States, and data show that most the U.S., including parts of Nevada, have seen fewer unusually hot days, as shown in the post “Media Chases ‘Climate Enhanced’ Heat Waves, Misses Data Showing They are Less Frequent.”
Hurricane Hilary, discussed in the Climate Realism post “No, BBC, Hurricane Hilary Was Not Unprecedented,” undoubtedly had an impact on the amount of rainfall Burning Man saw this year as the remnants of the storm moved inland from its landfall as a tropical storm in Southern California.
The monsoon season is a regular event known to scientists and nearby residents. Also, this isn’t the first time Burning Man itself was disturbed by a downpour. A brief Google search reveals many articles and blog posts from as far back as 2000 that describe rain around the same time of year creating sticky, impassible mud. Anyone operates an outdoors festival in the desert Southwest during the monsoon season should not be surprised to get heavy amounts of rain on occasion.
This particularly sticky, slippery mud, is also a known feature of the dry lakebed Burning Man takes place in. Its primary composition is gypsum, silica, and bentonite-clay type dirt that can form famous white-out dust storms when dry, and soak up water and turn into particularly sticky mud when wet. When it rains – and rains hard – in the desert, a dry lakebed is not the place to be.
As discussed, many times by Climate Realism, here, here, and here, for example, these kinds of drought and deluge patterns are normal for the region; desert rain does not soak easily into the ground, it runs off and collects, leading to flooding, including flash floods, which are dangerous.
While there were certainly unsafe and unsanitary conditions at Burning Man this year, the weather that led to it is not unprecedented. Burning Man has been rained out before, and none of the conditions that led to the situation can be honestly attributed to human emissions of carbon dioxide, as outlets like Wired and The Conversation are implying when they claim this kind of rainfall is indicative of climate change. Data does not show that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent or intense in the Southwestern United States. Climate change can’t be causing weather changes that data show aren’t occurring.
Linnea Lueken is a Research Fellow with the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy. While she was an intern with The Heartland Institute in 2018, she co-authored a Heartland Institute Policy Brief “Debunking Four Persistent Myths About Hydraulic Fracturing.”
Dry lake beds are bloody lake beds.
Only bloody after there have been enough pagan sacrifices of virgins etc..
Since it was not bloody one can but assume there were not enough virgins, if there were any at all, to be sacrificed..
If you have ever met any Burners, I agree on the scarcity of virgins attending
I want to say something so badly.
And the lack of discrimination of those that caused the scarcity of virgins…
A dry lake bed is a remnant of a prior climate change.
The Playa is a small part of a huge inland sea called Lake Lahontan. The ancestors of the native Americans lived on the shoreline for centuries. There are petroglyphs every where in the Great Basin of northern NV. At Grimes Point just east of the Fallon NAS on Hwy 50 is such an area les than a mile off the hwy. is a cave that centuries ago natives lived in. The cave entrance is a 100 feet above the gravel. Near the top of the hill approx 500′ above the cave are prehistoric geological formations that can only formed along the shoreline of brackish ponds or lakes. They are Tufas which are formed in very shallow brackish water where fresh water percolates into the brackish water body. Mono Lake is famous for its’ many huge tufas.
P.S. Besides being sticky when wet the ultra fine dust is very slippery when wet.
Interesting. I missed that one, but I stopped at the Museum in Lovelock which I highly recommend if one likes geology, Native American and Western U.S. history.
Re: “slippery”. I can attest. I think the dirt composition Linnea describes must be fairly common across much of the Colorado Plateau.
In several backpack trips up to the plateau country above the Colorado River, my wife and I learned to be wary of any hint of clouds, as the access to trailheads is always via narrow, crowned, clay-like roads that are like glazed ice when they become wet. One trip in late February we were creeping along the crowned road leading to a trailhead above Ruby Canyon when a snowshower caught us. Fishtailing with any acceleration, I brought the car to a complete stop on the center of the crown but the car decided it wasn’t done moving and slid sideways off into a culvert. With no other vehicles passing, we spent the night there wondering what to do next. By sun up the mud had frozen solid and once we broke the lock the mud had on our wheels, we pulled right out and went along our way. Many roads surfaces on the plateau have this clay consistency.
…are lake beds…
and they got flat by being flooded and inundated many, many times…
Tom, I am working in Reno right now, and staying at a Motel, and the parking spots of Burners, who managed to get out of the Black Rock, is clearly marked by cream-colored mud. It’s also all over in the streets and parking lots. The local car wash services banned the Burners as the mud is sticky and plugs everything up. The problem was that Hurricane/Tropical Storm Hilliary turned north and merged with the annual north flow called the monsoon, and the rain path included the Black Rock. All completely normal.
I saw somewhere the lake mud is mostly Bentonite clay, which is nasty to be around.
Some years ago a company came in drilled bore holes to check the condition of the berm around our sludge lagoon. After they got their core samples, they sealed the holes with sacks of dried bentonite powder.
Bentonite expands, and so can seal, when in contact with water.
Likely not good to inhale the powder.
Once again weather is called climate change.
The ‘Climate Scientists’ have redefined climate to be only 30 years, so now the climate is always changing.
Not true, the IPCC have defined “climate = 30(+) years of weather” since at least the TAR.
Each of the AR6 assessment reports has a copy of the IPCC’s “Glossary” as an Annex. For WG-I it’s “Annex VII”.
The IPCC’s entry for “Climate” (for AR6, in 2021), on page 2222 of the WG-I report :
Me : “At least ‘months’ is in its plural form, but apart from that I agree”.
Their start of their entry for “Climate change”, just below the one for “Climate” :
Me : “Correct. Well done ! Have a biscuit …”
Their entry for “Climate extreme (extreme weather or climate event)” in the second column of text on the same page :
Me : “For simplicity ?!? FFS …”
Journalists and environmental activists (but I repeat myself …) around the world : “Yes !“
I don’t understand why that had to start with “Not true”. Seems like “True and been that way for a while” would fit better.
My idiosyncratic posting style is a more extreme form of Willis’s standard “Please copy the bit(s) you disagree with when commenting” exhortation.
The bit I highlighted in the extract at the start of my post was the “re-” prefix in the word “redefined”.
The poster “scvblwxq” claimed that “Climate Scientists” … which I, possibly incorrectly, inferred to equal “the IPCC” … had “re-defined” the word “climate” to add (/ modify ???) the criterion “only 30 years”.
Attached is a screenshot of part of page 788 of the TAR WG-I assessment report’s “Appendix I : Glossary”.
Please demonstrate exactly how the IPCC has “re-defined” the word “climate” since 2001.
I maintain that “scvblwxq”‘s claim, as originally phrased, is “Not true”.
I was listening to a history of the Han Dynasty in China (202 BC – 9 AD, 25–220 AD), the other day.
One thing that gave them problems apart from nomads on the borders was the Yellow River. Because it carries and deposits sediment there are frequent floods and regular course changes. Some of which were major changes.
The BBC has any flood in China as a climate change indicator.
If I’m not mistaken, I could be, the 30 year period originally was never called “climate” but the 3 decades used to determine if the temps were above or below “Average”.
Hot weather, rain and drought is climate change. Cold weather is just weather. But everyone knows that cold weather only exists because the polar vortex is pushed away from the poles by the heat that is climate change.
We now have two data points where music festivals caused it to rain. There may be others unknown to us. So by climate science we can have consensus on what causes extreme rain, music festivals.
In certain circles where I live cutting hay will most likely bring on clouds if
not a rainstorm..the rain gods have their needs too.
Just washing my car does it for me…
Whenever the lawn needs mowing.
Ah.. you gotta be canny..
Always plan to wash the car on a rainy day.
When everything is caused by “climate change”, nothing is caused by “climate change.” Sort of like racism. The constant refrains are simply faithful repetition of the Leftist Liturgy. All Hail Gaia. All Whites are Racists. All Weather is Climate Change. Etc. Etc. I wonder just how much longer the low information crowd is going to buy this snake oil? Sadly, I fear the answer is “forever.”
Not only are all Whites racists, ONLY Whites can be racists.
According to reports, the rain at Burning Man was 1/2 to 1 (12 to 25 mm) inch total. That’s hardly a massive down pour. Around here we’d say that it’s enough to keep the dust down. It’s the fact that Black Rock desert is a Playa covered in powder with no drainage that made it a muddy mess. Maybe someone should admit that the idea of having 70,000 people gather for more than a week in place with no infrastructure is not a great idea.
It’s remarkable that only 10 millennia ago that area was covered by a 150 m deep lake. I think that means it was wetter then.
There you go, jumping to conclusions, Scissor!
You’re probably one of those conspiracy theorists who thinks that just because a bunch of corrupt foreign governments gave millions of dollars to a drug-addled pervert with no business experience, it might be relevant that his father could make policy decisions about those same countries. There’s absolutely no evidence to prove that. He has not signed a written confession, even if he is on video bragging about it. Only a few people have testified to it, but it’s debunked because, because um, it’s debunked. Old news.
I lived about 40 miles from there for four years, in the Lahauntan Valley, which if it weren’t for irrigation would be just as dry. The desert started at the back wall of my house. One day we had nearly an inch of rain (usually any rain was less than a tenth of an inch) and the ancient lake returned. It took two weeks for the water to dry up, and well over a month after that for the sticky, sticky, mud to dry out. The roads, streets, and homes were built up about a couple of feet so no one got flooded out, but no one walked out on anything that wasn’t covered in vegetation in the meanwhile.
One location’s drizzle is another location’s down pour.
If it rains and there is mud, CC!, if it is dry and you have a dust storm on a dry lake bed, CC! No matter what it is always CC! WOLF! WOLF! If this is the new normal, then why report it any more? Now if you have old fashioned weather that is NOT CC, then report that.
Remember this one:
__________________
The U.S. coast is in an unprecedented hurricane drought – why this is terrifying –
The Washington Post August 4th 2016 LINK
Only unprecedented in our myopic view of the planet.
Everything after they put video cameras in cell phones is “unprecedented”.
Terrifying is an average American’s 491k balance, not a weather report.
Warmer and wetter would have som big winners
What a lot of stuff and nonsense
If it rains at a festival it ain’t pretty, Glasto does it every other year
Can I say they should man up? Well, I said it.
CO2 makes that rainbow look nice.
I doubt there were many of the “rainbow” crowd as Burning Man !
Story tip
Heat pumps twice as efficient as fossil fuel systems in cold weather, study finds
Doubts about whether heat pumps work well in subzero conditions shown to be unfounded, say researchers
…
The Guardian and the investigative journalism organisation DeSmog recently revealed that lobbyists associated with the gas boiler sector had attempted to delay a key government measure to increase the uptake of heat pumps.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/11/heat-pumps-twice-as-efficient-as-fossil-fuel-systems-in-cold-weather-study-finds
I was amused by the description of DeSmogBlog
Technically, one can say, if the electric motor winding heat is directed into the heated space, that a heat pump becomes the same thermodynamic efficiency at high inside/outside temperature difference as an electric resistance heater. The problem is that there is a big difference between thermodynamic efficiency and cost efficiency. Yes electric heat can be considered nearly 100% efficient (you know, ignoring that it is all lost to ambient eventually) and a gas furnace 90% efficient (also lost to ambient eventually)…..but, as usual, COST represents human effort, at least for normal people paid by the hour, a factor the eco innumerates don’t want to consider.
Sounds like capitalism. No they don’t study capitalism nowadays.
The irony is palpable.
The Guardian quotes Dr Jan Rosenow, the director of European programmes at the Regulatory Assistance Project:
The same author declares:
Hmmm, let’s see:
The Crux Alliance was established in 2018 to support the rapid implementation of ambitious, cutting-edge climate policies, according to their website. The Regulatory Assistance Project supports the Crux Alliance.
The Regulatory Assistance Project:
No competing interests my arse.
“The Guardian and the investigative journalism organisation DeSmog”
I had to LOL!
a friend sent me this- he found it on Facebook
This trend ( climate CAGW hysteria) is going to be hard to stop. At this point so many groups, organizations ,corporations , major political parties and leaders have dug themselves into both an ideological and financial hole that they cannot reverse out of without destroying all their credibility.
NOAA here in the US forecasts that the Sunspot Number is going to start decreasing starting in 2025 going down to zero and staying there until at least 2040 when their forecasts end. The cooler sunspots are linked to hotter areas so the overall output of the Sun will be decreasing. The last time this happened was in the 1600’s when millions died from famine and the period was named the Little Ice Age.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/predicted-sunspot-number-and-radio-flux
The number of sunspots has been widely above the predicted value since 2020. Cycle 25 sunspots are predicted to be near Zero by Aug. 2034. The last time there were few to no sunspots was in October 2019. They didn’t stay at Zero then and there is no reason to think they will stay at Zero after the next low.
Unless there is no Cycle 26. That would be interesting.
What credibility?
Joey Biden begs to differ…he says climate change is worse than the nuclear threat…he was sorta mumbling…but he said it. Joey is in the know – no?
The dog faced pony soldier strikes again!
Lying Botox-faced phony poseurs
h/t Neo
She also has the wisdom….
The Triops and Fairy Shrimp seemed happy enough with the weather. Strange that they would be there if………
Very nice Linnea.
Linnea ==> Burning Man is held on a “salt flat”-like dry lake bed, as you point out. How do dry lake beds come into being? First, there are rains which drop water on the hills, and the water flows down to a low spot. If th elow spot is flat, then the water pools there and makes a lake, even if temporary. The rains bring mud and slit, and dissolved minerals, which, over the centuries, build up to make a “salt flat”.
The dry lake bed was formed by the rains of the U.S.’s Southwest Monsoon — a long-term part of the climate of the American Southwest. Without the SW monsoon to recharge the aquifers, like much of India/Pakistan/Bangladesh, life there would be almost impossible.
Never let a good climate change attribution possibility go to waste. Of course, it requires a high degree of confidence in the ignorance of the readers. And the free spirits are busy cleaning up the mud mess with lots of “weather-generated” waters and chlorine processed public water systems.
I’ll bet the tribes refused to build on dry lake beds for good reason over the generations. And wagon trains of settlers passing through watched for summer storm events before crossing and certainly not camping out there for weeks at a time.
Every weather event nowadays is portrayed as evidence of a march towards doom. Idiots who don’t know the difference between weather and climate drool over the lies confirming their ignorance.
The types of characters that run to these sorts of festivals are inevitably in the climate alarmist camps to begin with, so naturally they would pin the blame on climate change for the flooding. Any logical explanation would have difficulty penetrating their drug-addled brains.
The wired podcast is so far left politically I found it unlistenable – and Im willing to listen to some borderline material. At some point refusing to hear the leftists panic amounts to becoming a grumpy old man. Oh thank goodness the original article was not written by a grumpy old man. Is LL grumpy? I dunno she sounds cheerful on the heartland podcast.
Heartland podcasts are way better than wired.
At this stage, literally every weather related event is seen as a direct result of “climate change” (or is it “global boiling” now?). This is indicative that the climate alarmist movement is a religious cult. When everything is a sign of your belief, that is not science, it is religion. It is utterly unfalsifiable, as both a cold spell and a hot spell, or a dry spell or a wet spell would be seen as conclusive evidence of “climate change”. Anyone claiming climate attribution is a charlatan.
I spent a Summer at Olympic Dam mine, in Australia. We had a small dump of 20 mm which was enough to turn a clay pan used as a football field into a foot of mud. Tradition was to play a game of rugby (rugby like would be a better description) in the quagmire.
Regarding Hilary’s “landfall as a tropical storm in Southern California”: Please get facts correctly! Hilary made landfall onto Mexico, and crossed into California over land.
There is the matter of weather data for specific places and even regions having a lot of noise, and this can detract from a general principle of global warming generally increasing rainfall. And, Michael Mann got something right here (increase of rainfall and heavy rain events having increased rainfall), even though he has gotten many things wrong as part of being better at playing office politics on a grand scale than at being a scientist, and even though this effect gets overstated a lot by cherrypicking of weather data including the data being affected by changes of rain gauge technology.
Look they can’t have it both ways. They talk about global heating causing drought at the same time that they blame flooding and heavy rainfall on ‘a warming world’.
I agree with you that the logical expectation for a warming trend is a wetter trend. Which puts the lie to the bs about global heating causing drought. Drought causes extreme heat, not the other way around.
I’ve been exploring the high desert of the great basin for over 50 years. There are dozens of big playas to explore. They all have a common origin of being a dried up lake bed. They all flood some years and not others. They all defy driving on them if very wet. When the rain comes, you had better get to high ground unless you don’t mind staying awhile. I’ve seen the Alvord desert a hundred miles north of the Black Rock Desert remain flooded all winter.
You spin the wheel, you take your chances.
tom