After a summer of no landfalling hurricanes or tropical storms, this week we’ve seen a ramp-up of activity in the Atlantic, and a weak tropical storm named Harold provided some much-needed rain and temperature relief to Texas.
Plus, there remain disturbances in the Atlantic that may turn into additional tropical storms and/or hurricanes. The big question this year has been the effect of warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures, and how this will potentially affect late-season hurricanes. We’ll answer that question and others in a special show this Friday featuring forecasting and hurricane experts Joe Bastardi and Stanley Goldenberg.
Tune in LIVE for Climate Change Roundtable at 1PM ET/Noon CT on Friday, August 25 to find out. And be sure to leave your questions for host Anthony Watts, weekly panelists H. Sterling Burnett and Linnea Lueken, and special guests Joe Bastardi and Stanley Goldenberg.
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Lest we forget
”Colorado State University (CSU) predicts that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be “above normal” with 18 named storms and major hurricanes making landfall. The university team projected nine hurricanes (including Don), four of which they predict will become major hurricanes.”
A tropical storm has turned south and is attacking Puerto Rico.
Storm Franklin has turned south and is attacking Puerto Rico.
That is just the effect of a very strong wind shear. The center of circulation is still north of PR and exposed. Later sat images show the strong weather near PR to be diminishing with strong storms reforming near the center.
A jet stream loop is in effect over the western Gulf of Mexico, which will direct the storm seen between Yucatan and Cuba to the southern US coast.
I am watching this one closely. Early models show it going west of where I live which is Venice about 60 miles south of Tampa. I am 1 mile inland from the Gulf.
Good luck. Tom.
That storm lacks direction — still late on Friday night.
Maybe by Sunday there will be a better take on where it is expected to go.
Let the WUWT crowd know how you come through it.
Of course, the peak season is just about 2 weeks away.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/08/30/1400Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=precip_3hr/orthographic=-86.10,29.66,4457
They are using a term for storms that I haven’t heard before. “Invest”.
All I’ve been able to find are explanations about what the numbers and letters mean, but I have not been able to find anything that gives of a good definition of what an Invest is, and how does it differ from what the used to call “low pressure systems”, or more simply “lows”.
Short for investigating.
“The meaning of invest is simply a naming convention used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, to identify areas they are investigating for possible development into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days. “
I have been asking people to remember last year when at this time all was pretty quiet and we had no idea that Ian would develop and affect our lives so drastically. You just never know what the future has in store for you.
Typhoon threatens Luzon island.
The typhoon stopped on the eastern side of the island of Luzon. There will be extensive damage in the Philippines.
There is a high probability that another hurricane will form south of the California peninsula.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=epac×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
Strong convection is seen in the Gulf of California.
As I recall, NOAA predicted in 2022 it would be 65% chance above average, 10% below, it was below
Didn’t they hedge this year and basically predict 1/3 each for average, above and below, 3 way coin toss?
Because science.
Tropical storm enters the Gulf of Mexico.
A powerful typhoon in the Philippine Sea reaching the stratosphere.
The eye of a powerful typhoon is headed straight for Taiwan.
