Climate change models for North America and Europe had previously suggested global warming would increase crop yields in the short term. Those regional increases were expected to buffer losses elsewhere in global food supply.
But new evidence suggests climate-related changes to fast flowing winds in the upper atmosphere (the jet stream) could trigger simultaneous extreme weather events in multiple locations, with serious implications for global food security.
…
Alarm bells should be ringing everywhere. We seem to have underestimated the chance of climate breakdown causing simultaneous harvest failure in the world's major breadbaskets. It's an issue I discuss in Regenesis, but it appears much worse than we thought https://t.co/hOwARCkhPg
Australia needs to reconsider its short-term focus on the advantages of selling goods internationally. Conceptualising food more as a human right than a commodity might initiate such a shift.
The last thing the world needs is more socialism and well meaning aid, especially an expansion of harmful do-gooder food relief.
The following is from Kenyan economics expert James Shikwati;
“For God’s Sake, Please Stop the Aid!”
The Kenyan economics expert James Shikwati, 35, says that aid to Africa does more harm than good. The avid proponent of globalization spoke with SPIEGEL about the disastrous effects of Western development policy in Africa, corrupt rulers, and the tendency to overstate the AIDS problem.
04.07.2005, 00.00 Uhr
SPIEGEL:
Mr. Shikwati, the G8 summit at Gleneagles is about to beef up the development aid for Africa…
Shikwati: … for God’s sake, please just stop.
SPIEGEL: Stop? The industrialized nations of the West want to eliminate hunger and poverty.
Shikwati: Such intentions have been damaging our continent for the past 40 years. If the industrial nations really want to help the Africans, they should finally terminate this awful aid. The countries that have collected the most development aid are also the ones that are in the worst shape. Despite the billions that have poured in to Africa, the continent remains poor.
SPIEGEL: Do you have an explanation for this paradox?
Shikwati: Huge bureaucracies are financed (with the aid money), corruption and complacency are promoted, Africans are taught to be beggars and not to be independent. In addition, development aid weakens the local markets everywhere and dampens the spirit of entrepreneurship that we so desperately need. As absurd as it may sound: Development aid is one of the reasons for Africa’s problems. If the West were to cancel these payments, normal Africans wouldn’t even notice. Only the functionaries would be hard hit. Which is why they maintain that the world would stop turning without this development aid.
P. J. O’Rourke expressed similar sentiments in his book “Eat the Rich“, in which he described accompanying a US relief effort to Somalia, passing endless fields full of healthy crops on the way to their “rural relief” objective. Why were the farms full of food, yet Mogadishu had none? This might have had something to do with the extreme lawlessness in Mogadishu, which at the time was full of gangsters, open street gang wars and Khat addicts.
There is also no evidence warmer weather increases the likelihood of simultaneous crop disasters in the paleo record, quite the opposite. During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, far hotter than today, conditions were so benign our monkey ancestors spread all the way up to Greenland. The warmth turned most of the world into a tropical paradise, including places which are currently covered by mile thick ice sheets.
I read it as Synchronised Swimming Failures and thought “That’s another thing that’s good about the mild warming we’ve been lucky to experience” (although it’s bloody freezing for July in my part of the UK)
I only logged in to see who’s trying to synchronise these crop faillures.
We all knowthey are planning synchronised crop failures (at least on teevee), right? Riiight??
atticman
July 14, 2023 6:19 am
Years ago, crop failures were blamed on witches. Sadly, nothing seems to have changed much…
The Eocene warm period was beautifully corroborated when diamond miners reached a depth of 300 meters in the Ekati mine in Canada’s sub-Arctic north and found 53 million year old redwood logs, encased in the ore. Not only did the broken logs still have seams of sugary sap preserved, but the wood was still red.
Here is a piece about a conference back in 2017 that had some items I found
interesting pertaining to climate of the past here in the Northern Rockies.
“The scientists are also finding that the high country wasn’t the same as we now see it. Old whitebark pine stumps have been dated to 1,100 to 2,100 years ago in places that are now 500 feet above where trees are growing now, Guenther said. “These were happy, well-fed whitebark pine,” he said. That points to the possibility that the high country was warmer for a period of time, maybe encouraging occupation when lower elevations were stricken with drought.”
They also found a piskin at 10,500ft in elevation, I thought that bison were plains
animals. Why were they at such a high altitude? Curious, at least to me.
I’ve spent time digging around at a buffalo jump on a friends ranch years ago.
There were tepee ring rocks nearby and a V of large rocks to guide the
stampede over the edge. There is a written account of the annual migration
of that area from the vantage point of Divide Peak on the east edge of Glacier Park. From the summit it drops to the prairie, the Sweet Grass Hills range is visible at the far horizon maybe 100 miles away. This explorer wrote that the migration was a solid mass of animals moving south for 3 days and was between his vantage and the distant range. I climbed some in the park
years ago and read that account from the summit of Divide Peak. It’s
not much of a climb more of a scramble. The debris at the jump base at
my friends ranch is sizeable, I collected some bones but no stone pieces.
it’s in that same area. Where the account of the high altitude jump was found
there were a couple of large herds that migrated around that range. I’ve
been in the 10K elevation range a few times and it’s hard to picture a herd
of buffalo that high..
The WSJ article ‘hits the nail right on on the head’ when it says ‘Hottest Days Ever? Don’t believe it’. Average Global Temperatures are meaningless. I couldn’t agree more. Temperatures differ vastly from North to South in a ‘tiny’ country like the UK so how do you ‘average’ temperatures in, for instance, Africa let alone the world??
An “average” is a statistical descriptor, not a measurement. It *must* be accompanied by a standard deviation or variance in order to make any sense as a statistical descriptor. Yet climate science studiously avoids stating what the variance is for the data that makes up the global average temperature. Variance is a direct measure of the uncertainty associated with the data set. The wider the variance then the wider and shorter the “bump” is at the middle of a Gaussian distribution. This means the “average” has a smaller chance of being a “true value. Using anomalies doesn’t help. Anomalies carry with them the variance of the data used to determine the anomaly.
And this assumes that the global temperature data *is* Gaussian. If it isn’t, if it is bimodal as the NH and SH is likely to be then the average is even more meaningless. The average of a bimodal or multi-modal data distribution tells you almost nothing about the distribution.
Yet we are to accept without question that the variance and modality of the global climate data is something that can be disregarded. As is the uncertainty of the measurement data. We are supposed to believe that the uncertainty is all random, Gaussian, and cancels out so that the calculated averages are 100% accurate.
SD and it’s parent variance are only worth something if the distribution is normal. Other symmetrical like triangular can provide a simple ± figure but should be computed differently. Anything that is skewed will need different values for the + and the – points of an interval that duplicates a normal standard deviation.
When they do include variance, they use utterly unscientific methods to calculate that variance.
For example they firmly believer that you can increase the accuracy of a measurement of one pot of water, by taking a measurement of a second pot of water, 100 miles away, at a different time and using a different thermometer.
Average temp for the planet is a useless number like the average temperature of a steel plant – average of the blast furnace, working area, the air conditioned offices.
Hottest day evah! just because of some temp reading from frigid Antarctica wasn’t as frigid as it normally was in the past – a past that was hardly measured until recent decades and even the dependability of the current info is in question.
For me in Canada, 1.5°C warmer for next year would be a GOOD START!
It boggles the mind how the eco-nazis are so freaked out by a number and physics they obviously don’t understand – or if they do and are milking the ignorance of others and resulting hysteria for political gain regardless of the pain they cause, then they are just evil.
Let’s start with ending our mindless ethanol policies. We need to grow food. At best, ethanol gives no net gain and no reduction in the use of fossil fuels. At best.
It’s a farm subsidy – good luck getting rid of it.
observa
July 14, 2023 8:40 am
Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections
But not the actual observed synchronised low yields of wind and solar output of course.
This just in: well-known NBC TV national weatherman Al Roker recently gave a TED Talk wherein he states that “climate change is the most existential threat to our survival”.
Did anybody look at the study?
It’s IPCC RCP8.5 models.
– – – – – – – – –
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
Agriculture is arguably the sector most affected by climate change, but assessments differ and are thus difficult to compare. We provide a globally consistent, protocol-based, multimodel climate change assessment for major crops with explicit characterization of uncertainty. Results with multimodel agreement indicate strong negative effects from climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes where developing countries are concentrated. Simulations that consider explicit nitrogen stress result in much more severe impacts from climate change, with implications for adaptation planning.
One only has to look into a seed catalog for the U.S. and Canada central plains. Different varieties for temperature, soil, maturation time, and other variable. The temp difference from Texas to well into Canada is large. Believe me 2 to 3 °F ain’t going to make a big difference in harvests.
Bruce Cobb
July 14, 2023 9:27 am
This just in: Climate Change Propaganda Threatens Synchronized Climate Cackling and Caterwauling. Film at 11.
From the article: “But new evidence suggests climate-related changes to fast flowing winds in the upper atmosphere (the jet stream) could trigger simultaneous extreme weather events in multiple locations, with serious implications for global food security.”
Of course, “climate-related” actually means human-caused climate change, and no, there is no evidence that human-caused climate change is real or that human-derived CO2 is causing the Earth’s jet streams to do anything out of the ordinary.
It’s all a bunch of unsubstantiated speculation, just like all of climate science.
Another example of models feeding models.
First they model their “estimations” of what CO2 levels are going to be.
They feed that into their models of how this is going to affect things like the jet stream.
Then they feed the changes in the jet stream into their weather models.
Then they feed the weather changes into their crop models.
None of these steps use models that have been validated and in some cases like the CO2 projections, the models have actually been refuted.
Yeah, sure. I guess all the warmistas forgot that people in really warm areas never developed technologically is because they didn’t need to. They just picked fruit from trees to live. No planning necessary. What’s bad about warm?²
MarkW
July 14, 2023 11:16 am
Models have predicted the current increase in crop yields????
Since when? For decades, the activists have been predicting imminent crop disasters.
Sounds to me more like yet another attempt to cover for past failures, by re-writing history.
bairddavid
July 14, 2023 11:47 am
How to deal with the Jet Stream threatening to cause synchronized harvest failure? I propose “Synchronized fan waving”. I’m positive Greta could convince her followers to get really big fans and on a specific day and time, wave against the Jet Stream to slow it down. She just needs to wait till I can get the fans manufactured and listed on Amazon at the low price of $17.76 each. /sarc
John Hultquist
July 14, 2023 12:33 pm
Shikwati: Such intentions have been damaging our continent for the past 40 years.
Being more than twice his age, I think he should have used “80” rather than 40. I can remember missionaries coming to our church in Pennsylvania and asking for money. Mother would give me a quarter to put in the basket. Thinking back, our family would have made better use of the 25¢ than wherever it went in Africa.
Low yields are far more likely to come from “climate agenda” idiocies like banning nitrogen fertilisers and the general interference in farming by the greenies and other woke/leftist cluelessness.. .
I read the headline first as Synchronised Heart Failures…
I read it as Synchronised Swimming Failures and thought “That’s another thing that’s good about the mild warming we’ve been lucky to experience” (although it’s bloody freezing for July in my part of the UK)
Sorry for you – 28 degrees here in Los Llanos de Colombia at 11:15am
“as Synchronised Heart Failures…”
Something do to with the Covid jabs?
That’s sadly easy to do these days. Doctors are baffled.
I only logged in to see who’s trying to synchronise these crop faillures.
We all knowthey are planning synchronised crop failures (at least on teevee), right? Riiight??
Years ago, crop failures were blamed on witches. Sadly, nothing seems to have changed much…
Same economic theory can be said for America’s welfare system.
And communism.
General question, not that much off-topic:
Is there anything—anything at all—that “climate change” does not threaten???
I had a dead car battery a couple of weeks ago, and am wondering . . .
Asteroids
Yes… Climate Change doesn’t threaten Asteroids, but Near Earth Asteroids
sure threaten the climate!
Not quite asteroids, but they’ve already blamed meteors on warming due to expansion of the atmosphere.
Nyahahaha!!!
Thatwasthe best laugh this week!
Until they find a spurious correlation between CO2 and shooting stars
A few years back, a CNN reporterette asked if CO2 was causing an increase in asteroid impacts.
https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/cnn-anchor-asks-if-approaching-asteroid-was-caused-by-global-warming/
The weeds in my garden……….
They died from weed killer I sprayed..😮
The Eocene warm period was beautifully corroborated when diamond miners reached a depth of 300 meters in the Ekati mine in Canada’s sub-Arctic north and found 53 million year old redwood logs, encased in the ore. Not only did the broken logs still have seams of sugary sap preserved, but the wood was still red.
https://www.livescience.com/23374-fossil-forest-redwood-diamond-mine.html
Here is a piece about a conference back in 2017 that had some items I found
interesting pertaining to climate of the past here in the Northern Rockies.
https://abatlas.org/the-human-sense-of-place/high-altitude-archeology
“The scientists are also finding that the high country wasn’t the same as we now see it. Old whitebark pine stumps have been dated to 1,100 to 2,100 years ago in places that are now 500 feet above where trees are growing now, Guenther said. “These were happy, well-fed whitebark pine,” he said. That points to the possibility that the high country was warmer for a period of time, maybe encouraging occupation when lower elevations were stricken with drought.”
They also found a piskin at 10,500ft in elevation, I thought that bison were plains
animals. Why were they at such a high altitude? Curious, at least to me.
bison were also in the eastern states too so not just plains animals
I’ve spent time digging around at a buffalo jump on a friends ranch years ago.
There were tepee ring rocks nearby and a V of large rocks to guide the
stampede over the edge. There is a written account of the annual migration
of that area from the vantage point of Divide Peak on the east edge of Glacier Park. From the summit it drops to the prairie, the Sweet Grass Hills range is visible at the far horizon maybe 100 miles away. This explorer wrote that the migration was a solid mass of animals moving south for 3 days and was between his vantage and the distant range. I climbed some in the park
years ago and read that account from the summit of Divide Peak. It’s
not much of a climb more of a scramble. The debris at the jump base at
my friends ranch is sizeable, I collected some bones but no stone pieces.
it’s in that same area. Where the account of the high altitude jump was found
there were a couple of large herds that migrated around that range. I’ve
been in the 10K elevation range a few times and it’s hard to picture a herd
of buffalo that high..
Maybe those higher elevations weren’t so high then. Nothing stays the same.
Ground upheaval due to plate tectonics.
Didn’t continents move in those 53,000,000 years?
Yes, large portions of which moved both horizontally, but more importantly to this thread, VERTICALLY.
Not by much:
https://images.app.goo.gl/2Mb4qVEeSgXoVjLP7
Here’s a guess from Wikipedia:
very interesting!
From The Conversion…
“We believe in experts. We believe knowledge must inform decisions”
And a nightingale sang in Berkeley Square
“We believe in experts. We believe knowledge must inform decisions”
What they mean is “Experts should be making all decisions”.
With Covid they did
Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts. Richard P. Feynman
I can’t believe Monbiot actually used the phrase “much worse than we thought”…..
Really?
He moved to Wales and promptly started agitating against Welsh sheep farming
Too tempting for him?
He’ll just say, “sheep lie.”
That saying actually means that I am lying, you know I’m lying but I just don’t care since I am being well paid to lie.
Monbiot is an optimist. He believes he can think.
More to the point, Monbiot mistakenly believes he can inform others.
What is it with Monbiot and sheep? Or shouldn’t I ask…?
The WSJ article ‘hits the nail right on on the head’ when it says ‘Hottest Days Ever? Don’t believe it’. Average Global Temperatures are meaningless. I couldn’t agree more. Temperatures differ vastly from North to South in a ‘tiny’ country like the UK so how do you ‘average’ temperatures in, for instance, Africa let alone the world??
Hottest Days Ever? Don’t Believe It – WSJ .
IF you are, however, interested in Average temperatures try
https://temperature.global
where, strangely they show the average as 57.47F !
An “average” is a statistical descriptor, not a measurement. It *must* be accompanied by a standard deviation or variance in order to make any sense as a statistical descriptor. Yet climate science studiously avoids stating what the variance is for the data that makes up the global average temperature. Variance is a direct measure of the uncertainty associated with the data set. The wider the variance then the wider and shorter the “bump” is at the middle of a Gaussian distribution. This means the “average” has a smaller chance of being a “true value. Using anomalies doesn’t help. Anomalies carry with them the variance of the data used to determine the anomaly.
And this assumes that the global temperature data *is* Gaussian. If it isn’t, if it is bimodal as the NH and SH is likely to be then the average is even more meaningless. The average of a bimodal or multi-modal data distribution tells you almost nothing about the distribution.
Yet we are to accept without question that the variance and modality of the global climate data is something that can be disregarded. As is the uncertainty of the measurement data. We are supposed to believe that the uncertainty is all random, Gaussian, and cancels out so that the calculated averages are 100% accurate.
Humbug! Pure and plain.
Standard deviation and variance only make sense if you know the statistical distribution of the measured quantity.
SD and it’s parent variance are only worth something if the distribution is normal. Other symmetrical like triangular can provide a simple ± figure but should be computed differently. Anything that is skewed will need different values for the + and the – points of an interval that duplicates a normal standard deviation.
When they do include variance, they use utterly unscientific methods to calculate that variance.
For example they firmly believer that you can increase the accuracy of a measurement of one pot of water, by taking a measurement of a second pot of water, 100 miles away, at a different time and using a different thermometer.
One wordFour words: urban heat island effect.Average temp for the planet is a useless number like the average temperature of a steel plant – average of the blast furnace, working area, the air conditioned offices.
Hottest day evah! just because of some temp reading from frigid Antarctica wasn’t as frigid as it normally was in the past – a past that was hardly measured until recent decades and even the dependability of the current info is in question.
57.47F
That is 14C .. rather chilly !!
I stopped at the first “could”.
How did the monkeys get to Greenland?
Road trip?
Is there really any evidence that Greenland was connected to Europe? Seems like quite a distance- or their hopping skills were excellent.
Don’t forget the continents have changed in the last 55 million years
Late/early Paleocene–Eocene
right!
The Vikings ran a ferry service. Didn’t you know?
On a banana boat
Even bigger question..
How did the monkeys end up as climate scientists?
Naming computer games after themselves.
From The Conversation link:
“Encouraging free trade in agriculture has not significantly improved global food security.”
That’s idiotic.
Leftists seem to believe that they are entitled to their own facts.
Wow, the panic in that thread is beyond insane.
1.5C warming in the next year?
For me in Canada, 1.5°C warmer for next year would be a GOOD START!
It boggles the mind how the eco-nazis are so freaked out by a number and physics they obviously don’t understand – or if they do and are milking the ignorance of others and resulting hysteria for political gain regardless of the pain they cause, then they are just evil.
I’m in Australia.. I strong suspect there will be far more than 1.5C warming, by the end of the year ! 😉
I certainly hope so. These morning frosts are rather tedious 🙁
Let’s start with ending our mindless ethanol policies. We need to grow food. At best, ethanol gives no net gain and no reduction in the use of fossil fuels. At best.
It’s a farm subsidy – good luck getting rid of it.
Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections
But not the actual observed synchronised low yields of wind and solar output of course.
Story tip.
This just in: well-known NBC TV national weatherman Al Roker recently gave a TED Talk wherein he states that “climate change is the most existential threat to our survival”.
Hear it directly from his mouth starting at the 44 second mark into this summary clip (not including lead-in ad) provided by NBC:
https://www.nbc.com/today/video/al-roker-gave-a-ted-talk-with-inspiration-from-granddaughter-sky/NBCN448837832
Good grief! Most existential threat? Any facts to go with that now-nationally-fronted alarm???
Mr. Roker should stick to reporting on weather, not speculating about climate.
But the gullible so want to believe!
See that and raise you Gary Hardgrave-
‘World ending’ climate change narrative ‘bunkum’ | Sky News Australia
Did anybody look at the study?
It’s IPCC RCP8.5 models.
– – – – – – – – –
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
Agriculture is arguably the sector most affected by climate change, but assessments differ and are thus difficult to compare. We provide a globally consistent, protocol-based, multimodel climate change assessment for major crops with explicit characterization of uncertainty. Results with multimodel agreement indicate strong negative effects from climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes where developing countries are concentrated. Simulations that consider explicit nitrogen stress result in much more severe impacts from climate change, with implications for adaptation planning.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1222463110
It doesn’t matter which “climate model” scenario they use…
It is all just juvenile computer games.
Absolutely meaningless against reality.
One only has to look into a seed catalog for the U.S. and Canada central plains. Different varieties for temperature, soil, maturation time, and other variable. The temp difference from Texas to well into Canada is large. Believe me 2 to 3 °F ain’t going to make a big difference in harvests.
This just in: Climate Change Propaganda Threatens Synchronized Climate Cackling and Caterwauling. Film at 11.
From the article: “But new evidence suggests climate-related changes to fast flowing winds in the upper atmosphere (the jet stream) could trigger simultaneous extreme weather events in multiple locations, with serious implications for global food security.”
Of course, “climate-related” actually means human-caused climate change, and no, there is no evidence that human-caused climate change is real or that human-derived CO2 is causing the Earth’s jet streams to do anything out of the ordinary.
It’s all a bunch of unsubstantiated speculation, just like all of climate science.
Another example of models feeding models.
First they model their “estimations” of what CO2 levels are going to be.
They feed that into their models of how this is going to affect things like the jet stream.
Then they feed the changes in the jet stream into their weather models.
Then they feed the weather changes into their crop models.
None of these steps use models that have been validated and in some cases like the CO2 projections, the models have actually been refuted.
Yeah, sure. I guess all the warmistas forgot that people in really warm areas never developed technologically is because they didn’t need to. They just picked fruit from trees to live. No planning necessary. What’s bad about warm?²
Models have predicted the current increase in crop yields????
Since when? For decades, the activists have been predicting imminent crop disasters.
Sounds to me more like yet another attempt to cover for past failures, by re-writing history.
How to deal with the Jet Stream threatening to cause synchronized harvest failure? I propose “Synchronized fan waving”. I’m positive Greta could convince her followers to get really big fans and on a specific day and time, wave against the Jet Stream to slow it down. She just needs to wait till I can get the fans manufactured and listed on Amazon at the low price of $17.76 each. /sarc
Shikwati: Such intentions have been damaging our continent for the past 40 years.
Being more than twice his age, I think he should have used “80” rather than 40.
I can remember missionaries coming to our church in Pennsylvania and asking for money. Mother would give me a quarter to put in the basket. Thinking back, our family would have made better use of the 25¢ than wherever it went in Africa.
Low yields are far more likely to come from “climate agenda” idiocies like banning nitrogen fertilisers and the general interference in farming by the greenies and other woke/leftist cluelessness.. .
eg Sri Lanka,
eg 5mm tilling stupidity in Western Australia
I thought it was 50mm, but still ridiculous.
Yep, you are probably correct… 50mm, that’s like 2″,
Yes…Ridiculous !