By P Gosselin
Climate science gets violently shaken up! Sediment core analyses show hurricanes were more frequent when the globe was cool, during the Little Ice Age.
Germany’s “klimanachtrichten” (climate news) here reports on surprise findings concerning hurricanes frequency. It turns out hurricanes were more frequent during the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures were a degree colder, than they are today.
This finding contradicts the climate science claim that global warming cooks up more hurricanes.
The data show the opposite to be true.
The active Little Ice Age
Despite all the drama and hysteria we hear from the media every time a hurricane makes landfall, hurricane activity reconstructions using sediment cores show that hurricanes were indeed more frequent during the Little Ice Age and that their activity follows decadal cycles – as reported by The Conversation, November, 2022:
Image cropped at klimanachrichten.de here.
Hurricanes were more frequent during the Little Ice Age than they have been over the past 100 years:
Summary: Image cropped at klimanachrichten.de here.
Colder periods associated with more hurricanes.
This would tell us there’s much more complexity behind hurricane formation than simple the CO2 mechanism in the atmosphere. It’s much more complex than what alarmists scientists, governments and media claim.
In fact, the results contradict what we’ve been told all along. To the contrary, warmer periods don’t mean more hurricanes and it appears that colder periods are associated with greater hurricane frequency.
Jupiter is around -145C
No storms there….
/sarc
I would say “Spot On”.
But the “Spot” means Not.
Wouldn’t we expect a warmer world to be less stormy in general, because of the lower temperature gradient between the tropics and the poles?
IPCC AR4 Chapter 10 Global Climate Projections Page 750
Almost everywhere, daily minimum temperatures are projected
to increase faster than daily maximum temperatures, leading to
a decrease in diurnal temperature range.
A similar statement in the IPPC AR6 Chapter 4, Future Global Climate,
seems to be missing. At least a [Ctrl-F ] search on “diurnal” doesn’t
find it.
Exactly.
Henry 8th chopped the forests of NW Europe – hence the water contained in and under them disappeared.
Along with the water went the heat it contained so nights got colder and so did winters.
The steepness of the temperature gradient between the tropics and Europe thus increased so more energy flowed and faster.
Hence the extra storms.
This is entirely why the GHGE is such complete self-contradicting garbage.
It’s asserted that:
Yet Climate Science rages that ‘weather will get worse‘
How is it possible to get something so simple, so everyday, so common sense…
So Utterly Wrong
Good comment, Peta of Newark. The CAGW Loonies don’t get it wrong, they just lie and use the theme, because when you’re saving the planet from old white men you can’t be bothered with those pesky facts.
Wrong? Are the scientists wrong about the Sahara being necessary for the Amazon? Scientists say the dust from the Sahara is deposited by winds on the Amazon which cannot exist without the potassium provided…..so when the Sahara turns green again…the Amazon goes brown…..man is innocent….Nature did it.
Yet Climate Science rages that ‘weather will get worse‘
How is it possible to get something so simple, so everyday, so common sense…
So Utterly Wrong
Simple – pay people enough money to ignore the obvious.
Climate Scientists get renumeration commensurate with the continuation of the consensus on climate change dogma.
The local Agriculture college was offered $500,000 by the State Legislature to perform a study to Determine if there was a Cyclical nature to the rainfall and/or temperature so that this knowledge could be used to determine which crops to plant. The University “Scientists” wanted no part of it as they felt that they would lose all Federal and private “Climate Change” funding if they came up with the “Wrong” answer, i.e., one that disagreed with the Dogma. And they said that! ! That tells me that they actually are Skeptics of Climate Change.
I had a farmer relative who carefully tracked seed sales and bought/planted whatever crops were selling the least seed. He not only paid bargain prices for seed, but also got top dollar at harvest due to short supply. He was a multimillionaire by the time he was 50.
I didn’t realise Henry VIII had access to any forests other than those in England.
if your perspective rates that you are the center, then all forests are controlled by you (and yours).
(maybe Henry should have also taken his followers to the shore and shown them that he cannot control the tides, or the worlds climate)
“Wouldn’t we expect a warmer world to be less stormy in general, because of the lower temperature gradient between the tropics and the poles?”
Yes, absolutely.
A warmer world also has smaller temperature gradients between day and night, and also between summer and winter.
H.L.Lamb compiled a list of historical storms from previous centuries, when the climate was colder. In terms of deaths they were far, far worse than anything we experienced over the last century. And of course the EMDAT database shows that deaths from extreme weather have fallen dramatically over the last 100 years.
History also confirms that storms were far worse during the Little Ice Age. They were so bad that people thought they couldn’t be natural. Sound familiar? Seems we haven’t evolved much since then. Because storms during the LIA were so bad, innocent people were accused of the crime of “weather cooking” and sentenced to death. It can only be a matter of time before sceptics are also accused of weather cooking and given long prison sentences for speaking the truth.
Chris
Yes. The results are not a surprise.
Indeed. The only surprise ought to be that they claim to be surprised.
Well, it would be a surprise if they were *actually* surprised. Is it a surprise that they CLAIM to be surprised?
Not so much, I think.
Yes. The driver is the difference between the temperature in the arctic vs the temperature in the tropics. A/T > A+1/T+1
Warmer is better.
Yes, we would.
Unless our salaries depended on the opposite conclusion, of course.
Circulation in the northeast Pacific is consistent with La Niña. Tropical storms are beginning to form west of Central America.
The unusually strong monsoon season in Southeast Asia is beginning.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/global2/mimictpw_global2_latest.gif
The last days I read in in some German news that heat and relative humidity in India is unsupportable and, of course, due to Climate Change.
I know from my mother, who lived after WW2 for some years in India, that the last days before beginning of monsun are really strong, and with the first drops of rain, people start dancing in the streets, at least in Bombay as Mumbay was named at that time.
So, nothing new there, time to go along 😀
Monsoon is about to reacht the west coast.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/level/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-286.51,5.71,630/loc=66.263,13.879
31.7C
I’ve been saying that since my first posts here around 2007.
Ships logs show far more Atlantic cyclonic activity during the LIA.
So basic planetary atmospheric mass-motion thermodynamics (aka Meteorology) is more significant than radiative physics in generating weather storm systems?
Surprise indeed.
As we keep trying to point out, the cycle of atmospheric back-radiation in the standard climate model is in fact the process of energy delivery by atmospheric convection in disguise.
The Application of the Dynamic Atmosphere Energy Transport Climate Model (DAET) to Earth’s Semi-Opaque Troposphere.
“This finding contradicts the climate science claim that global warming cooks up more hurricanes.”
That is not the climate science claim. From the AR4 SPM:
“Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs. There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones.”
The projection is that there will be a decrease in numbers with warming. True, they aren’t sure. But they certainly are not projecting an increase.
“it is likely that future tropical cyclones…”
That’s most unlikely. The models are wrong
Again, from AR4 9.5
“While results vary somewhat, these studies
generally indicate a reduced frequency of tropical cyclones in
response to enhanced greenhouse gas forcing, but an increase
in the intensity of the most intense cyclones (Section 10.3.6.3).”
The models are wrong, Nick….
So do you think there will be more hurricanes?
We’ll have to wait and see.
so meanwhile, lets not spend quadrillions of dollars to “save the planet”- though of course, it is possible that there will be some negative consequences of a slight warming- no doubt there are many better places to spend that $$$$
Good answer!
If thee models predict that a reduction in temperature gradients will generate more intense hurricanes then they are likely wrong. When are tornadoes in the midwest the strongest? Winter and summer when there are smaller temperature gradients or in the spring/fall when the temperature gradients are the greatest?
As usual the climate alarmists (and the models) want their cake and to eat it too.
Yes, and the number and intensity of tornadoes is down, too.
Greenhouse gas isn’t responsable for what storms ever. Period.
so that’s the prophecy- I wouldn’t bet all your money on it
the “projection” based on “a range of models”- I think calling it a prophecy is closer to what’s being said- but of course saying prophecy sounds too much like religion
“but an increase in the intensity of the most intense cyclones”
Which is not happening.
Listen and read around in what is called Climate Science you will find out, that nevertheless what the IPCC is writing, people is told, storms get stronger, more frequent and in some year we will dying burned, put in pieces by hurricanes, kiIled by to much or not enough water etc etc
What is the point in claiming that this paper contradicts climate science when it is in line with the clearly stated IPCC view. Maybe it contradicts someone on the internet.
maybe it contradicts reality
Study Says Warming Likely to Push More Hurricanes Toward US Coasts
4 ways hurricanes are becoming more dangerous and why
The ocean is getting warmer as the climate heats up. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of nearly 200 scientists who assess thousands of climate studies from around the world, has confirmed that climate change will likely deliver a future of more dangerous hurricanes.
The very latest research suggests this future is already here.
Here’s what climate science tells us about how hurricanes are changing:
Even Weak Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger as the Climate Warms
More intense hurricanes form rapidly due to climate change
Dangerous Rapidly Intensifying Landfalling Hurricanes Like Michael and Harvey May Grow More Common
You want more ?
Ask goolag ! 😀
That just says what I quoted
“Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs. There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones.”
The prediction is for higher intensity, but not more of them. None of what you quoted disputes that.
We observe the opposite, less frequent hurricanes and no change in intensity.
Slight decrease in the chance a hurricane forms, smaller change in major hurricanes —> higher proportion of major hurricanes to weak hurricanes
Overall, no change or a slight decline.
“That is not the climate science claim. From the AR4 SPM”
Your words.
???
It is not inline with increased intensity with warming. It shows the opposite, increased frequency and intensity with cooling.
From IPCC AR6 Chapter 11:
The average and maximum rain rates associated with tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers across the globe, and severe convective storms in some regions, increase in a warming world (high confidence) . Available event attribution studies of observed strong TCs provide medium confidence for a human contribution to extreme TC rainfall. Peak TC rain rates increase with local warming at least at the rate of mean water vapour increase over oceans (about 7% per 1°C of warming) and in some cases exceeding this rate due to increased low-level moisture convergence caused by increases in TC wind intensity (medium confidence). {11.7, 11.4, Box 11.1}
Extreme Storms, Including Tropical Cyclone
It is likely that the global proportion of Category 3–5 tropical cyclone instances2
has increased over the past four decades. The average location where TCs reach their peak wind intensity has very likely migrated poleward in the western North Pacific Ocean since the 1940s, and TC translation speed has likely slowed over the conterminous USA since 1900. Evidence of similar trends in other regions is not robust. The global frequency of TC rapid intensification events has likely increased over the past four decades. None of these changes can be explained by natural variability alone (medium confidence).
The proportion of intense TCs, average peak TC wind speeds, and peak wind speeds of the most intense TCs will increase on the global scale with increasing global warming (high confidence). The total global frequency of TC formation will decrease or remain unchanged with increasing global warming (medium confidence). {11.7.1}
There is low confidence in past changes of maximum wind speeds and other measures of dynamical intensity of extratropical cyclones. Future wind speed changes are expected to be small, although poleward shifts in the storm tracks could lead to substantial changes in extreme wind speeds in some regions (medium confidence). There is low confidence in past trends in characteristics of severe convective storms, such as hail and severe winds, beyond an increase in precipitation rates. The frequency of spring severe convective storms is projected to increase in the USA, leading to a lengthening of the severe convective storm season (medium confidence); evidence in other regions is limited. {11.7.2, 11.7.3}.
The argument is about frequency of storms (higher in the LIA). And the relevant part of your quote is
“The total global frequency of TC formation will decrease or remain unchanged with increasing global warming (medium confidence). {11.7.1}”
I quoted AR6 in full so as everyone had access to the definitive current state of IPCC thinking on tropical storms.
Wasn’t making any argument of my own. This is not a subject I can add insight to.
There are many things subjects by this site where I think my insights are valuable. But storm formation is far too complex for me to express my own opinion on.
1 The scientists who write that part of the report aren’t predicting an incrase.
2 Politicians and climate activists say global warming will make every kind of weather worse
3 The people who wrote the report keep quiet
Therefore the authors (1) of the report tacitly agree with the politicians and activists.
It’s straightforward
They didn’t keep quiet. The prediction is in the key part, the SPM.
The argument is about frequency of storms.
Hi Nick
Why are we not discussing the reason why hurricane activity increases during voler periods instead of the wording of claim’s.
With regards
Martin
Colder periods
I argue that the observed strong jumps in the magnetic field of the solar wind are causing the circulation to block on the oceans. This is now hindering the development of El Niño. During La Niña, easterly winds along the equator naturally concentrate tropical waves in the atmosphere along the equator, leading to an increase in tropical cyclones. This is the situation we have now. Therefore, the Philippines is threatened with a real climate catastrophe due to more tropical storms.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/wpac/mimictpw_wpac_latest.gif
Storms and weather in general are driven by pressure differences. Air pressure is determined by air density which is controlled by temperature and moisture content. The temperature of the tropics is more or less constant irrespective of the average temperature of the world because of the Hadley cell circulation.
As is shown by current 20th century weather data, the global average temperature increases due to increases in the temperature of the extra-tropics. Thus the down-welling of cooler air in the Hadley circulation has to move further from the equator before it is cool enough to sink because it is buoyed up by the warmed air in the extra-tropics. Thus within the tropics where hurricanes develop the pressure gradient with respect to distance (latitude) is reduced so the velocity of the air in convection cells is also reduced. This reduces the chance of development of hurricanes.
Hurricanes are driven by evaporation and condensation of water. They develop from localised convection cells where the latitude is such that the Coriolis force induces circulation around a mild low pressure region. It is likely that for a hurricane to develop, the air velocity at the surface of the ocean be more than a specific value because otherwise there will be insufficient evaporation of water at the surface of the ocean to sustain hurricane development. Over time, hurricanes generally become more intense as the surface winds increasingly disturb the ocean surface which increases evaporation and therefore the fuel generating the hurricane. There is an upper limit to inflowing velocity and the circulation around the eye which may reach approximately 200mph. But this rarely happens as it requires sustained location of the hurricane over the ocean and its presence at suitable latitudes.
The main point however is that a warmer world will have fewer and less energetic hurricanes and this is due to a reduction in the air density gradient in those areas where they normally form.
Surprise: Hurricane Activity Reconstructions Show Greater Storm Frequency When Globe Was Cold
What surprise ?
The surprise is that they’ve cited the average temperature of the LIA at -1C below later temperatures. Studies using computer models, ice cores, tree rings or a mixture, vary between -0.55C and -2.0C below later temperatures (usually mid 20th century averages). No idea what the temperature was with any degree of certainty but some regional records put the average even as low as -7C below later temperatures.
The Arabian Sea has been sitting above 30C for a month. It is ready to explode into rapid cooling:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/level/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-286.51,5.71,630/loc=66.263,13.879
The convective storm will pull 3C out of the surface temperature and India will get its much anticipated monsoon that is bound to drench the country..
Another typhoon is forming in the Philippine Sea.
Most likely to recurve back out over more or less open water from the forecasts I’ve seen. About time the western Pacific fired up. It has been below the mean on the ACE index for 4 years running and at near record lows a couple of those years.
The previous typhoon turned north and brought torrential rains in Japan. The current tropical storm will reach the Philippines.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=wpac×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
Close counts in horseshoes.
No surprise here! Less contrasts in temperatures mean less stormy weather. The troposphere in in the temperate zones and poles have warmed but that in the tropics has not. Thus, less contrast. Fewer and weaker Tropical Cyclones on average as the ACE index has clearly shown over the last few years despite NOAA naming storms which never would have been named before.
Speaking of storms and temperature contrast, Joe Bastardi and Weatherbell are saying that starting about week two of this month we are likely to see severe storm and tornadic activity increase relative to averages here in the US as the temperature pattern in the models indicates a flip with cooler temperatures to the north with hotter temps to the south So from about the 10th through the end of the month look out.
This is no surprise at all. It is perfectly logical.
It is temperature DIFFERENTIALS that drive violent weather, NOT a higher “average” temperature. A warming climate REDUCES tropics – high latitudes differentials AND day-night differentials.
There’s many reasons, including this one, why previous warm climate periods were each called a “climate OPTIMUM.”
As a retired Navy P-3 pilot, I knew this years ago. In colder climes, our engines were far more powerful–we were horsepower limited. In warmer climes, our engines were less powerful–we were temperature (TIT) limited. As we are dealing with typical thermodynamics, heat engines are less powerful, when the heat-sink temperature is warmer. My counterparts in the jet community say the same thing for their engines. Hurricanes are heat engines, so they suffer the same restrictions. In a warmer climate, they should be less powerful–standard thermodynamics. It’s too bad that climate scientists (like Mr. Stokes) don’t know thermodynamics.
The AMO was warmer during each centennial solar minimum of the LIA, I don’t see how that translates to lower global temperatures, but it would explain an increase in stronger hurricanes.