Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for May 2023 was +0.37 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean. This is up from the April 2023 anomaly of +0.18 deg. C.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 17 months are:
| YEAR | MO | GLOBE | NHEM. | SHEM. | TROPIC | USA48 | ARCTIC | AUST |
| 2022 | Jan | +0.03 | +0.06 | -0.00 | -0.23 | -0.12 | +0.68 | +0.10 |
| 2022 | Feb | -0.00 | +0.01 | -0.01 | -0.24 | -0.04 | -0.30 | -0.50 |
| 2022 | Mar | +0.15 | +0.28 | +0.03 | -0.07 | +0.22 | +0.74 | +0.02 |
| 2022 | Apr | +0.27 | +0.35 | +0.18 | -0.04 | -0.25 | +0.45 | +0.61 |
| 2022 | May | +0.17 | +0.25 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.60 | +0.23 | +0.20 |
| 2022 | Jun | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.05 | -0.36 | +0.46 | +0.33 | +0.11 |
| 2022 | Jul | +0.36 | +0.37 | +0.35 | +0.13 | +0.84 | +0.56 | +0.65 |
| 2022 | Aug | +0.28 | +0.32 | +0.24 | -0.03 | +0.60 | +0.50 | -0.00 |
| 2022 | Sep | +0.24 | +0.43 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.88 | +0.69 | -0.28 |
| 2022 | Oct | +0.32 | +0.43 | +0.21 | +0.04 | +0.16 | +0.93 | +0.04 |
| 2022 | Nov | +0.17 | +0.21 | +0.13 | -0.16 | -0.51 | +0.51 | -0.56 |
| 2022 | Dec | +0.05 | +0.13 | -0.03 | -0.35 | -0.21 | +0.80 | -0.38 |
| 2023 | Jan | -0.04 | +0.05 | -0.14 | -0.38 | +0.12 | -0.12 | -0.50 |
| 2023 | Feb | +0.08 | +0.17 | 0.00 | -0.11 | +0.68 | -0.24 | -0.12 |
| 2023 | Mar | +0.20 | +0.24 | +0.16 | -0.13 | -1.44 | +0.17 | +0.40 |
| 2023 | Apr | +0.18 | +0.11 | +0.25 | -0.03 | -0.38 | +0.53 | +0.21 |
| 2023 | May | +0.37 | +0.30 | +0.44 | +0.39 | +0.57 | +0.66 | -0.09 |
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for May, 2023 should be available within the next several days here.
The global and regional monthly anomalies for the various atmospheric layers we monitor should be available in the next few days at the following locations:
Lower Troposphere:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Mid-Troposphere:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt
Tropopause:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt
Lower Stratosphere:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt
The El Niño is taking effect. It was also really warm in Canada and the western CONUS, which is a complete 180 from the previous 3 months. Still, it may not surpass the 2016 record this winter. A new broken record after 7 years is, climatologically speaking, unheard of.
Yep!
After the long pause, enhanced by the natural, long lived La Nina…… the very slow, mostly beneficial greenhouse gas warming during this current, scientific climate optimum for life on earth will be enhanced again from the natural El Nino.
As expected with this pattern, we should be at record global temperature highs in 2024.
Unheard of since semi-reliable records began. About 40 years
yuh, which happens to be about 1/100,000,000 part of Earth’s history
High solar activity above the decadal warming threshold is driving the recent ocean warming.
Canada and elsewhere have recently endured days of high UV Index as the total column ozone high above thins out, driving higher ground insolation warming that has triggered wildfires too.
Don’t bother me with this heady tech stuff as I’m busy with makeup and my creative role in the B grade movie at present-
Incoming UN climate agency chief forecasts wind of change (msn.com)
The first woman to head the WMO is a man?
From that web site:
We’ve had some rather nice weather here in Woke-achusetts the past few weeks. While working in my garden with my wife- after she said how much she enjoys the nice weather- I asked her “but- don’t you know we’re having a huge global crisis”? She looked around and said, “what the hell are you talking about?”. Oh, such a shame, she and so many others just don’t know what a horrible crisis/emergency/disaster we’re having! /sarc
I don’t know why ya’all are bothering with any of this anymore. Saint Greta of the Thunbergs has made it clear that according to “top scientists” in 18 days it is all over and nothing after that can be done to save us from being roasted. The end times have begun.
World To End In Nineteen Days | Real Climate Science
The 1.5C disaster point will be reached in the next few years. What will the Climate Catastrophists say if nothing much happens, more to the point what will they do?
The same thing they are doing now! LIE!
It won’t. The point about 1.5°C warming, is it’s about the average temperature, not one year. A single year is weather not climate.
Party Pooper. It’s June and the weather here is a little on the chilly side, although dry and bright. I could really do with some of that warmth right now!
Personally, I’m torn between wishing for “better weather” a degree or two warmer summers and winters, and wishing the temp would go down a bit….just so that I don’t have to be assaulted with the media’s warming crisis stories continually.
“What can’t continue going up will go down” is an old stock market saying, and sooner or later Planck feedback will stop “global warming”….
Expect a lot of chortling from the alarmists should 2016’s spike be exceeded. Then silence as the next La Niña bites. And one extra molecule in 150 years wafts across the Pacific.
The 4th warmest May in the UAH data set. The warmer Mays – 1998, 2016 and 2020 were all set during record breaking years. 2023 defiantly won’t be record breaking.
My prediction now based on the first 5 months of the year is for 0.19 ± 0.10°C. This is up from 0.15°C last month. I would think it likely this will rise further, but unlikely to finish outside the confidence interval.
Monckton’s pause now starts August 2014 and will be 1 month shorter than it was last month.
”My prediction now based on the first 5 months of the year is for 0.19 ± 0.10°C. This is up from 0.15°C last month.”
Lol.
It’s the Warmest Year on Record!
We’re All Gonna Die!
Of course the second does not follow from the first. We are all mortal and will, on the average in first world countries, die 80 years after we were born.
“Timing is everything” — Andre Aggassi.
The other thing to note is that the record is less than two hundred years long. One hundred years (10^2) is to the earth’s age of 4.5 billion years (4.5*10^9) as a second is to a civil year. In terms of the earth’s age the record period is a mere heart beat.
Meanwhile, Australia is cooling for yet another month.
Eleven years and one month by the Monckton method. Geoff S
Today it’s back to cool and wet weather along the Front Range of Colorado.
Yesterday, I skied Arapahoe Basin. June skiing used to be a rare treat but it seems to be more commonplace, though the ski season will end tomorrow. Must be climate change.
Only a handful of days so far have been over 80F this year, barely made it to 60F today.
How was this graph derived? It seems contrary to the UAH graph. Thank you.
Note the starting points:
UAH: 1979
“this graph”: 2012
also, it is only using the data in the AUST column
This is the century when warming tops out and a cooling cycle begins according to past cycles. There could be a head fake where cooling appears to start and then another 50 years of warming but that is an exception – not the usual cycle. More CO2 is a good thing….keep cool and keep producing more CO2.
Darn- not enough for me- I want it warmer here in cold/damp Woke-achusetts, though I think I’m one of the very few people in this state not totally into the climate emergency cult.
The quantity of people in Massachusetts not in the “Climate Change” Is Real Cult is not what matters, dear Mr. Zorzin. It is the quality of those in MA who are standing strong for data-driven science.
This fellow, for instance:
https://co2coalition.org/teammember/richard-lindzen/
I think it does matter because that’s why the state has a net zero law despite the fine work by Lindzen.
I wasn’t speaking to the voting impact aspect, Mr. Zorzin. I was trying to encourage you (and got snapped at for my trouble — oh, well) with the fact that those on YOUR side are brilliant, well-informed, scientists, while those opposing you are ignorant or corrupt.
You sounded like the prophet Elijah when he was utterly discouraged, sure that there was no one left in Israel to oppose the prophets of Baal but he. And it moved me to try to encourage.
Just forget I even commented.
I didn’t mean to seem like I was snapping- I’m just so frustrated. Sorry if I didn’t express myself in a friendlier manner. I’ve been fighting the climate idiots here for years- and fighting against bad forestry here for 50 years. Now the climate idiots are aligning with forestry haters…. yikes, it gets worse all the time.
We’re still friends. 😊
And I am still praying for you! 🙂
P.S. I grew up near a logging community north of Seattle, Washington. I COMPLETELY support professional logging. So should everyone. It creates healthy forests, prevents devastating forest fires, and funds our schools (etc., etc.). People forget: trees are a crop. And we have plenty of old growth to treasure in our state and national forests.
A presentation during the recent Hunga Tonga SPARC workshop predicted a temperature increase of 1.5 C during at least 1 of the next 5 years due to the massive increase in stratospheric water vapor from that historic volcano eruption. I am using twilight photometry to provide altitude profiles of both the aerosols and water vapor from the eruption.
Sounds interesting. When do you anticipate completion of the study and some conclusions?
What happens to the slope when one takes out the few ice age warning years at the beginning of the satellite record?