News Brief by Kip Hansen — 27 May 2023
“NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, predict near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.”
“NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.”
This list of the 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names was selected by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The first hurricane of the season will be named Arlene, followed by Brett then Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert and so on.
“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years, due to competing factors — some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it — driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season. “ (emphasis mine – kh)
“After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.” [ source ]
For comparison, the 2022 hurricane season looked like this:
2022 had 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes and 5 tropical storms. Note that NOAA and the Wiki each have slightly different numbers of tropical storms for the season (5 vs 6). Nonetheless, Hurricane Ian, Cat 5, caused up to 161 human deaths and more than a billion dollars of damage, landfalling in the continental U.S. twice.
As always, those in areas potentially in the path of tropical storms and hurricanes should remain aware of hurricane warnings, be prepared to protect their property from damage, and have plans to evacuate if necessary.
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Having lived in the northern Caribbean on our ancient sailing catamaran for a dozen years, I am well versed in the activities of watching the weather, checking hurricane development daily, and planning, planning and re-planning as conditions changed. Evidence of the success of our plans is that I am here writing this today. We had several close calls and rode out one direct hit in North Carolina near Beaufort.
During hurricane season, I still check the reports and predictions daily; I have family in the USVI, in harm’s way.
Hurricanes are only neat and exciting when they are happening someplace else to someone else. Up close, they are dangerous even for those well prepared.
Be Prepared. Thanks for reading.
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