From the NoTricksZone
By P Gosselin
Amid the current natural gas shortages, the German government is hoping for a warmer winter so that people don’t wind up freezing to death. Yet, on the other hand, the government warns that warm winters mean a climate disaster is putting our civilization at risk!
This year’s there’s much interest in forecasting what kind of winter is in the pipeline for Europe. Ironically, it is said that scientists all agree on the long-term climate forecast, yet, they can’t even agree on what lies ahead for the next few months.
Hat-tip: Snowfan here.
Fir example, the NOAA/CFSv2 sees a fiery warm winter for all of Europe ahead:
However, In early October, Germany’s DWD National Weather Service projects a warmer than normal winter, but not as hot as NOAA:
The IRI prognoses, on the other hand, a winter with near normal temperature across central Europe:
But a warm, dry October in Europe means a cold
However, according to statistics by German meteorologist Prof. Franz Baur of the University of Berlin: “If in Central Europe October turns out to be more than 2 degrees too warm and at the same time also too dry, then a cold or extremely cold January is to be expected with a very high probability.”
This year’s October has been very mild (+2°C) and relatively dry in Germany, especially in the second half, so statistically a cold winter is expected in Europe, according to Prof. Baur.
La Nina’s role
Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne
For those with just a fraction of knowledge in meteorology, it is understood that the severity of a winter is completely dependent on the prevailing weather patterns at hand, and these are in large part dominated globally by oceanic cycles. (Little to do with Co2).
Here, Weather.com here explains that this year is the third year in a row with a La Niña situation and looks at the impact that may have on Europe’s coming winter.
La Nina involves cooling on the Pacific Ocean off South America with effects on other parts of the world. This includes increased precipitation in Australia, as it just happened.Weather.com correctly writes:
Our winter is affected by two major factors. One is La Niña and the other is the polar vortex. And then there are interactions as well, which doesn’t make it any easier.
In La Niña years, there is a high probability of a strong high over northern Russia, which can extend to Scandinavia. At the same time, there is increased low-pressure activity over the Iberian Peninsula – that is, over Spain and Portugal.
Thus, it is rather mild and relatively dry in Eastern Europe. In southwestern Europe, on the other hand, it will be relatively cool and wet. At least, that’s the weather pattern you can expect with an undisturbed La Niña.”
Meteorologist Jan Schenk explains how La Nina impacts the Jet Stream, in most cases leading to mild Central Europe winters. Image cropped here.
Weather.com then also gives a forecast of disturbances to the polar vortex, which can lead to a blast of polar air across Europe, and thus foil a warm winter.
And in the past, such SSWs have actually occurred relatively often in La Niña years, primarily in January and February. There’s a 60 to 75 percent chance of another polar vortex disturbance this winter. After a disturbance, it usually takes 2 to 6 weeks before the cold air from the North Pole actually reaches us.”
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Of course they can’t.
They will be cancelled if they say it’s going to be cold.
(for myriad reasons, we know them all)
If winter is cold and russkies have a go at the Norwegian gas pipeline it’s going to be grim.
Mail Online 22:04, 28 October 2022
Experts fear Russia ‘is plotting to sabotage Norway-UK pipeline’ in a move that could leave households freezing this winter
That would be a direct attack on a NATO country, and no one would believe the USA or the UK did it. Which is what Russia would claim.
The Russians have already claimed that the Royal Navy blew up the Baltic pipeline.
… which, regretfully many of the third world countries would take for granted and would ‘give’ Putin’s warped logic an ‘excuse’ to retaliate in the eyes of his supporters.
Of course, Kremlin would never admit to it, but claim ‘if we blew-up our own Baltic Sea pipeline, you blew-up your own North Atlantic/Sea pipeline’.
Not much anyone could do about it, except ‘nuke’ Moscow. Hopefully world has not got that high up on the ‘madness scale’, or at least not yet, or am I’m being a bit naive.
The propaganda value of blowing up the pipelines has been huge.
The cost of repairing them after Europe surrenders is minor.
Wow! Remember when rational thought led humans to prepare for both normal and unusual circumstances? Because, you know, wishing and hoping are not advanced culture attributes. The only way this ends well is if adult supervision returns. In the USA the sign might start to become known this November 8.
My wife and I have identical phones, they each came with the same BBC weather app. Not only is it wrong more often than it is right we have noticed that one phone will give a different forecast to the other! My grandma used to say on a cloudy day ” if you can see a bit of blue sky as big as an elephants underpants the sun is going to come out “. She’s been right about as often as the Beeb. And they expect us to believe their predictions for the next several decades. As for winter I’ll have to wait and see, fingers crossed for a bit of snow.
Here in the States, I have seen the Weather Channel change their forecasts drastically in the same hour. When the station was created by the late John Coleman, it focused on accurate weather; today it focuses on reality TV and alarmists claptrap all the while claiming you need them to survive the weather. They still can’t predict 12:30 at 12 noon, they have been repeatedly caught faking hurricane intensity, and yet they still have the gall to claim we need them.
Faking seems to be the norm. I’ve kept a thermometer in the garden for 16 years. Temperatures are almost always cooler than predicted and usually by several degrees, a difference of 7 or 8 degrees is not uncommon. On one occasion the forecast predicted -2 my thermometer said -10 . Its part of the brainwashing, convince as many as possible that its warming or storms are worse and more frequent etc etc.
The UK Met Office have been doing this for decades. I think possibly it started with Michael Fish and there’s no hurricane, and not wanting to get caught out again.
Now we get forecasts of extreme weather for at least a fortnight before it arrives. The actuality is never anything like the forecast
Most of the weather forecasts we can get originate in one metro area or another. It is a rare occasion that the forecasters give a nod to the weather conditions in outlying areas, and usually in conjunction with a looming winter storm. For that reason, any exurb area is likely to be 2-5C cooler than what you’re hearing on the radio or TV.
The National Weather Service does the same thing. It is how the support their high claim of accuracy: ignore the previous 23 hours of wrong prediction and count the last hour when the prediction is useless.
I call Wx.com “weather porn.” Click bait stories and all. They destroy everything they touch.
“They destroy everything they touch.”
That pretty much covers most anything that has government intervention.
If something is working, tax it to death.
If something is broken, subsidize it.
That is why I call it the Weather Catastrophe Channel. Everything is a catastrophe.
Just today, in early-afternoon, the weather forecast I checked on my computer was forecasting rain after 9PM; it started raining about 4PM. I’m used to it not raining when rain is forecast. However, I’m a little surprised at them getting the timing wrong.
It doesn’t matter terribly much if there is a severe winter in Europe or not. When temperatures dip into single digit ºC everyones heating will go on. We will certainly get temperatures down to about Zero ºC on occasions, not particularly cold, but the point is those temperatures still kill the elderly when they have insufficient or unaffordable energy to heat their homes.
After an intense four months of research, supplemented by my weather forecasting model, so complicated that no other human could understand it, here’s my forecast: This winter will be cold, as winters always are. But the perfectly normal winter weather will be spun as “unprecedented”, “worse than we thought”, “a climate emergency” and blamed on climate change. To prevent another winter like that, the only solution will be said to be more windmills and solar panels. My computer program also predicts the future climate: It will be warmer, unless it is colder.
It used to be that most people were quite happy with a warmer than average winter. Now we’re supposed to be terrified of it as a sign of impending doom.
Almost sounds like a George Carlin skit.
IMHO, per my one page graphical analysis, the future climate will most likely be somewhat warmer than it is today. (Unless it is somewhat colder.)
Or somewhat similar? 🙂
Has anybody taken an average across the models?
/sarc
Tried to but they wouldn’t stand still 🙂
That’s the problem with wearing skimpy bikinis when it isn’t hot out.
Thanks for the laugh!! Great comment.
“This year’s October has been very mild…. so statistically a cold winter is expected in Europe, according to Prof. Baur.”
Prof. Baur needs to retake Statistics 101. STATISTICALLY, the present condition in no way predicts the next condition.
That is not correct Tom. We have many years of data, and a perfectly valid statistic can say, in the past the weather now has prediction value on the winter weather. That is all that is said above, and it is perfectly reasonable. There will be occasions when it is wrong, but a statistically significant number in contrast when it is correct. Your life insurance is just the same, it predicts exactly how long you will on average live. Is that wrong too?
Yes but Europe could have a statistically warm winter by largely having milder temps but a month of ‘beast from the east’ or whatever so it’s academic.
That would only be true if weather events were totally unconnected with each other. Weather on the other hand is connected in both time and space.
Yes, weather is seasonal and demonstrates auto-correlation.
The computer models are only as good as the ones who program them. And the ones who program them have a warm bias. Therefore, almost every winter, the computer models will have a warm bias.
I like to look at history. Some meteorologists have noted that the weather pattern this year is similar to 2010/2011. For example, that season had a very strong La Nina that formed over the summer, this season has a strong La Nina that persisted over summer. My prediction for this winter is that it will be similar to the one in 2010/2011. See if I am right, or the computer models are right.
Just like every year they predict above average hurricane activity in the North Atlantic
Because that is what the models are built to say, and that is what the narrative requires.
Winter in Southern and Western Europe will be mild,with the occasional cold days like it is 95% of the time.A prolonged period with very cold weather is rare here.No idea about Northern and Eastern Europe.I would welcome very cold weather just to shut down the greens here.Maybe they wake up when their entire body is frozen stiff when there is lack of heating in their homes.
……and maybe they don’t have to be frozen stiff but just damn cold-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/health/medical/rising-non-covid-excess-deaths-reveal-the-disastrous-legacy-of-the-pandemic/ar-AA13w3Ub
Climate activists “know” in great detail what the climate will be in 10-20 years from computer models, yet those same models can’t tell us what the weather will be next month. And there in lies the problem with believing in computer models, they rarely match up with reality.
When I was working as a Pilot we had a Met company that we could phone at any time and ask for a wind forecast for any area in the river and estuary, but they would never predict more than 3 hours in advance.
They aren’t the same models.
l have 45 years of first snowfall data for my local area here in England. Checked to see if it gives any clues about the following winter.
What its shown me is that a very early season snowfall should not be taken as a sign of a hard winter to come. Since 1977 the first snowfall has fallen in October 3 times.
2000/01 Oct 30th
2012/13 Oct 27th
2018/19 Oct 27th
During these years the following winter were
2000/01 ( alittle colder then average)
201213 ( alittle warmer then average)
2018/19 ( well above average)
So if snowfall in October is certainly not a sign of a hard winter to come. lt will be interesting to find out if a very warm October instead forecasts a cold winter to come.
When I was a lad in rural Perthshire local weather law was that there would be snow on the hills for a day or two by October, then there’d be no snow until late December. The other was when forecasting the weather for the next day was to assume it would be similar to today, this gave the correct forecast more often than not.
On that basis I’d say that for the UK the coming winter will be similar to last winter.
My data is from N Linc’s England where l live.
The snow settled on the ground only in Oct 27th 2012 ( which for lowland England in October is a rare event..The other times it fall as sleet, which is more likely this early in the season.
Just to make clear from my first post the dates of the October snowfalls were.
2000 Oct 30th
2012 Oct 27th
2018 Oct 27th
Thanks
When I was growing up it was said that if the ice would bear a duck before Christmas it wouldn’t bear a man after Chrismas.
l have heard of a weather lore along the same lines. lt say’s
ln November if there is ice to bare a duck, the rest of the winter will be slush and muck.
Are you sure that duck wasn’t really a witch?
*than
UK’s adjusted color scheme for when daily highs reach 0°C.
Wow, amazing that anyone survived
Isn’t that the same color scheme used for +40c this past July?
In fact, this looks worse!!
Amazing BS
Climate models have as much in common with weather models as they do with the models used to design planes and cars.
Weather models take current conditions and use them to project forward in time.
Climate models take assumptions about the physics of land, sea and sky and the physics of their interaction and use them to guess what climate will be like under those conditions.
The IPCC’s GCM’s clearly use assumptions NOT based in physics.
An interesting idea BUT:
The MET office in Britain has adjusted its weather models continuously but back 10-15 years they admitted they had included “climate change” factors. Ever since the weather forecasts have been much worse out 3-5 days. At one point they were very good, but now…
One of my children has planned for problems in Germany. He has a good pile of wood stored but the wood stove he ordered months ago is just not arriving.
Headed to Nuremberg next Sunday, interested to chat with regular people about this
Pat, please give us feedback as the mainstream media are avoiding talking about what is going on in Germany and other EU countries and my son is far too busy working to get involved in these protests. Here the self censorship is particulary shocking and all our media does is echo the government alarmist – climate and covid – propaganda 24/7.
It does not matter how warm, in general, the winter will be. What matters is whether the reserves exist to get through the short term cold snaps that will inevitably happen.
Unreliables have essentially zero reserves. A few hours at the most. Natural gas can have a couple of days. Coal can be piled high enough for several weeks. Nuclear has years.
The EU has been destroying their reserves for many years now – the coming winter might be “warmer” than the average, but two or three cold snaps will deplete what little is left. It only takes one cold period without available heating energy to kill thousands.
That’s ridiculous….outages occur in Canada when it’s minus 30 and only people with addiction problems die. We have parkas, snowmobile suits, bed duvets, which allow us to be toasty warm inside out of the wind even without our furnaces if need be…Most homeowners have fireplaces, although big condo buildings modelled after those in warmer climates will result in a high demand for snowmobile suits….….written with a bit of /sarc and /truth
Remember that survival in sustained cold requires increased caloric intake. Because of high energy prices people are having to choose between food, energy, medicine, and other basic needs.
When I worked drilling rigs in northern Alberta I basically doubled how much I ate in winter, just to stay warm working out in that
Your internal furnace needs fuel too! The Soviet rations for cold weather during the cold war included up to the equivalent of a 1/4 lb. of lard! Proteins/fats require your body to work harder to digest them and thus provide longer term warmth. Carbs and sugars provide quicker but shorter duration warmth.
I lost 15 lbs. in 15 days during my first winter warfare exercise in 10th SFG(A). It never got up to 0 deg. F during that time and we were moving with heavy rucks on touring skis in the Green mountains of Vermont in Feb with other SF troops chasing us. Ambient temp at night got down to -30 one night and near that several others.
We slept in sleeping bags in tents we set up on snow shelves we would build on the side of a mountain. At night as medic I went around checking fingers, toes, ears, and nose and general condition of everyone before I either pulled security or went into the sack.
I was an SF solider in excellent physical condition at the time with body fat under 5% and I remained hydrated and made sure everyone else did.
It’s interesting that in field deployments in the tropics the same checks on body parts and need for constant hydration are the same.
For different reasons though obviously.
Thank you, dear (hoo-) rah 🙂 for your service protecting and defending the Constitution of the United States of America … . Grateful for you.
Stay safe out there on the road.
Still praying….
It gave back every bit of what I put into it and more IMO! But thank you.
Most have fireplaces? Where? I have a gas one but it requires electricity to run same as my gas furnace.
I do have a gas stove that I can light with a match if necessary so I suppose we can huddle in the kitchen.
Short outages are no problem because we have insulated houses and warm clothes
Because canada.
The issue is longer term.
For us on the canadian prairies a 24 hour outage at -40 would mean destroyed houses as pipes burst after freezing.
In Europe I don’t think they face complete outages just yet, they face slow strangulation, having to keep the thermostat down as they can’t afford to be warm
Prolonged chill will prove more deadly to old people that Covid ever was.
In fact, Covid will lower the death toll from cold as those most susceptible to cold were taken off by Covid.
So there is that.
Are you sure about your gas fireplace not running if electric goes off? Ours still runs, but the electric fan does not.
In your winter weather location, you should have a plan for a non-electric winter heat source. Wood (not pellet) stove or an indoor rated propane heater.
Mine is a gasoline fueled generator that will run the blower on my insert, the fan and controls for the gas furnace, the fridge, several lights and the TV. What it will not run though, is the electric stove, the submersible pump, or the water heater, which are all 220V.
Actually I have a 8Kw backup generator that I have only had to run twice in the last 22 years…..plus a natural gas furnace, which has never ever gone out due to lack of gas…so Canadian utilities aren’t in the supply crunch one reads about in EU….but our leader Turdeau just charges carbon taxes cuz someone told him higher prices would reduce consumption, which it hasn’t, but he says we’re on track for 45% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2030….which has to tell you something about what his idea of being on track is.
The weather models are confused because the indicators are mixed. The La Nina points one way and the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) and MJO (Madden- Julian Oscillation) are pointing the other.
Since Joe Bastard and the weatherbell gang have been forecasting the flip to colder than usual temps for most of Western Europe to come in mid November. I’ll go with his forecast simply because they do not rely strictly on models. They look at weather patterns in the past and enter the data from those past years with similar patterns to the current ones into their forecasts.
Bastardi
typo
The UK Met Office can’t even forecast the local weather in North Wales accurately 24 hours in advance. There is no way they correctly predict what will happen globally over the coming years. Just look at their historical record of climate change predictions to see how bad they are at it.
I could do better by reading tea leaves.
I don’t drink tea … so will try coffee grounds !!!
We are on west side of Anglesey so generally mild & moist .
We’ve also had a lot more than usual berries & fruit on our bushes & trees, Swallows went ~3weeks & Geese came through ~ 2weeks early this year, Local farmers saying a hard Jan & Feb
We’ve had a lot, many more than usual, of berries on our mountain ash trees, that proves it’s going to be a cold one.
Proves? Get back to us next Spring.
Regardless of the weather in Europe this winter, the current energy crisis has been caused by the climate change crowd with the help of the political class and news media and a few idiots with glue.
Staying warm is not the only requirement for energy. A country has to produce to thrive And that requires a lot of affordable and dependable energy.
I remember winter 2000/01 being mild in Europe. So they’ve got that going for them.
Ryan Maue sees 2000 as an analogue year. 2000 was very late starting but moderately strong (hurricane) season.
This is also 22 years ago, putting us roughly in the same phase and polarity of solar cycle. But we also just had the weakest solar cycle in over a century (this is a wild card).
https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1546633681447620609
“ 2000 shows up as an “analog” year or similar climate as 2022, especially with triple dip La Niña.
December 2000 was very cold across Eastern 2/3 of the United States. Can we put much confidence in such a prediction for this next winter?”
If you had a friend with an above ground pool you’d remember when everyone would walk in a circle, adding energy, it’d create a smooth, controlled whirlpool. It was when everyone stopped that the water became choppy.
The last day of a 5 day forecast is a SWAG, so predicting out to the next season is a joke. Not unlike the End Of Days Chicken Little Climate Forecasting. Now when their prediction fails they start predicting the next 50 years without so much as “Never Mind!” on the previous fail.
It is important to focus on the reality that the GovMints of the Globe cannot control the Climate any more than they can stop the rain on the 5th day of their failed forecast but they can kill us with their unintended [or are they] consequences.
“If in Central Europe October turns out to be more than 2 degrees too warm and at the same time also too dry, then a cold or extremely cold January is to be expected with a very high probability.”
I wondered if it would also apply to England. So looked at the 10 warmest Octobers in CET, with temperatures from 1.9°C – 2.6°C above the 1961-1990 average. Only 4 of the following Januaries were below average, with the other 6 above average.
None of the below average January’s were more than 1°C below average, whilst the warmest one was more than 3°C above average.
Mild winter or cold it doesn’t matter their leaders have let them down and need to be held accountable.