From Dr. Roy Spencer’s Global Warming Blog
Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for August, 2022 was +0.28 deg. C, down from the July, 2022 value of +0.36 deg. C.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 still stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).
Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 20 months are:
YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST
2021 01 0.12 0.34 -0.09 -0.08 0.36 0.50 -0.52
2021 02 0.20 0.32 0.08 -0.14 -0.66 0.07 -0.27
2021 03 -0.01 0.13 -0.14 -0.29 0.59 -0.78 -0.79
2021 04 -0.05 0.05 -0.15 -0.28 -0.02 0.02 0.29
2021 05 0.08 0.14 0.03 0.06 -0.41 -0.04 0.02
2021 06 -0.01 0.30 -0.32 -0.14 1.44 0.63 -0.76
2021 07 0.20 0.33 0.07 0.13 0.58 0.43 0.80
2021 08 0.17 0.26 0.08 0.07 0.32 0.83 -0.02
2021 09 0.25 0.18 0.33 0.09 0.67 0.02 0.37
2021 10 0.37 0.46 0.27 0.33 0.84 0.63 0.06
2021 11 0.08 0.11 0.06 0.14 0.50 -0.43 -0.29
2021 12 0.21 0.27 0.15 0.03 1.63 0.01 -0.06
2022 01 0.03 0.06 0.00 -0.24 -0.13 0.68 0.09
2022 02 -0.00 0.01 -0.02 -0.24 -0.05 -0.31 -0.50
2022 03 0.15 0.27 0.02 -0.08 0.22 0.74 0.02
2022 04 0.26 0.35 0.18 -0.04 -0.26 0.45 0.60
2022 05 0.17 0.24 0.10 0.01 0.59 0.23 0.19
2022 06 0.06 0.07 0.04 -0.36 0.46 0.33 0.11
2022 07 0.36 0.37 0.35 0.13 0.84 0.55 0.65
2022 08 0.28 0.31 0.24 -0.04 0.59 0.50 -0.01
The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly image for August, 2022 should be available within the next several days here.
The global and regional monthly anomalies for the various atmospheric layers we monitor should be available in the next few days at the following locations:
Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0.txt
Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0.txt
Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt
The pause continues, with La Nina a real damper on temperatures.
Another way if putting it would be the 5th warmest August in the UAH record, despite continued La Nina conditions.
Three consecutive weak La Nina have failed to take temps below the line, there must be a rational scientific answer.
As Willis showed in his recent thread, the increase in solar energy absorption is having a moderate effect.
For the latest bump up, It’s called albedo. The Antarctic has now seen a reduction in sea ice. The strongest effect will be in July/August when the sun it most direct. I expect to see this continued bump in temperature over the next couple of months as well.
In addition to the GHE, there is actually the explanation for upwardly deviating temperatures that an increasing lack of evaporation capacity over the land areas is responsible for it.
The following graphs indicate this.
If the troposphere loses 1% relative humidity, that means 1.3% less absolute humidity. With a total mass of atmospheric water of ~13000 km³ that is 170 km³ less during the year.
To compensate for this, we need 36-44 times this volume, since the residence time of H2O is only 8.5-10 days. There is a lack of ~ 6800 km³ evaporation capacity per year, which has accumulated over thousands of years through land use change (sealing, drainage, slash-and-burn, …etc.).
How a global energy balance could look like over land areas with 1350 km³/y of additional evaporation (irrigation, rewetting moors, etc.) can be seen in the graph GEB +9L/m² and is better explained here:
https://climateprotectionhardware.wordpress.com/
Yet another way to put it would be totally underwhelming and completely within the bounds of natural variability. But that wouldn’t make for much of a headline in the Grauniad, would it?
Mind you, the Graun are still scrabbling around trying to find those 50 million climate refugees they said would be roaming the earth.
May,might, could, should, would-a, could-a, should-a…
We are on a rotating planet orbiting an active star which is in an arm of a rotating galaxy which is moving rapidly through space. We are constantly in a place in the universe where we have never been before and instantly being exposed to cosmic unknowns.Our magnetic field is constantly in flux and our protective shields constantly changing.
This summer my area broke daily heat records set in 1910 and 1911 and the August rainfall record set in 1915 when CO2 was 2/3 of today’s atmospheric concentration. Sea ice has not melted on cue and the devastating storms have not manifested.
IMO the planet is self correcting and there are too many variables for mere humans to accurately predict/project anything.more than a few weeks in the future. The old farmer’s almanac predictions often fit as well as the most experienced meteorologists’. Computer Models? GIGO – I think Feyman said something like – computer modeling devolves into playing a game.
Where are all the dead bodies?
That’s what they make fat free yogurt from
5th warmest, meaning the earth is cooling despite ever increasing amounts of doom molecule.
Which is cooler than the 1930’s
Which were cooler than the MWP
But yes, we’re all going to die. I think Keynes mentioned something about that.
“”But yes, we’re all going to die.” I think Keynes mentioned something about that.”
So did Saruman in the Peter Jackson movies of The Lord of The Rings.
His crystal-ball visons of the future were about as accurate as climate models.
“There will be no dawn for men”. Gender exclusive Armageddon!
+0.28C!
We’re doomed!
I’m genuinely sorry that I yawned, and I apologize to the entire audience.
We’re all going to die! in Greta Voice.
Dark Greta.
Australia lower troposphere adds another month of temperature to 10 year long ‘ pause’. The linear least squares fit remains negative in slope. There is no cherry picking. As Lord Monckton has explained, we start from now and look back in time until the slope of the line is positive.
What does it mean?
Nothing about the future, except that future monthly measurements will likely be in a similar range to those on the graph, until they are not.
The pause might be an indicator that a multi-year maximum has been reached. It also might not be. All that can be said is that the pattern of these 10 years is not one of increase or decrease.
In practical, human terms, one can say that by this index, Australian school children now aged under 10 years have never felt an impact of global warming. There is abundant material pushed on teachers that claims that there is an existential crisis and other fearful threats in progress. There is conflict arising from ignorance.
Show this graph, of the one from your country, to teachers. Explain what it can mean, no more, no less. Help to reduce ignorance. Geoff S
http://www.geoffstuff.com/uahsep2022.jpg
So in summary, the temperature goes up then it goes down then it goes up and then it goes down…………
This is going to be difficult for my kids to explain to their highschool Geography teacher.
What does it (10 year pause) mean?
It means nothing if the media does not report it.
It may mean nothing if the media did report it,
but it might reduce the coming climate crisis hysteria,
that caused the Nut Zero panic reaction
Why do people not notice the climate they live in,
but believe climate predictions of doom?
I wish I knew.
Because the all have their heads down and their ears plugged noticing only what their smart phones are saying.
I read this site on my smartphone.
NH landmass summer I’m sure affects the whole. Keeping my fingers crossed that Arctic Ice will bottom out in two weeks time at more than five MKm2 for the first time since 2007. Yippee!
Minimum was above 5M in 2009, 2013 and 2014, IIRC.
‘The linear warming trend since January,1979 still stands at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”
4.367 decades Times 0.13 deg. C/decade = 0.568 deg. C.
You can still paint be unimpressed.
As I said in November 2017, there are two clear paths that would convince me which hypothesis is correct.
The figure was updated in July 2021. It is clear which path is following.
Javier
I think you are being to kind.
Your graph implies a CO2 warming hypothesis with a low ECS.
The CAGW hypothesis i deny has two parts.
Part 1- CO2 warming has a high ECS.
Part 2 – The CO2 warming is dangerous.
Nice graph! It reminds one that “theory guides, experiment decides”.
Because of that little purple bit? Are you serious? Dude you’ve been drinking way too much of your own Kool-aid. The red arrow is actually closer to the trend than the yellow one….
But I guess you have so much invested in your own pet ABC theory nothing, absolutely nothing will now shake your conviction. The atmosphere is the dog’s tail you dummy.
”Because of that little purple bit? Are you serious?”
Why are you looking at that graph? It’s utter hadCRUD garbage.
2021 was actually the same temp as 2003 not 0.3C warmer. C’mon man!!!
The hypothesis is that more CO2 in the air causes global warming, so the atmosphere is the dog.
But thanks for pointing out one of the many problems with that hypothesis.
1) While flat temperatures would prove solar, increasing temperatures do not disprove solar. NASA’s relatively short SORCE mission showed that solar irradiance at different wavelengths doesn’t move in lockstep with TSI, so that a relatively constant TSI does not mean no change in solar effect on temperature.
2) The model followed by policymakers and IPCC warnings called for warming of 0.4 degrees C / decade from the year 2000 (with a likely range of 0.24 to 0.64) and CO2 levels have been in line with that scenario. We should already be at 1.2, the temperature shown for 2030.
So here in Western Europe the temperature goes up and down everyday by around 10°C, so why should I worry about +0.18°C over ten years?
Especially because it actually means that the winters are a little milder than before, isn’t that a good thing?
Daily air temperature is irrelevant in the greater scheme of things.
Air temperature can vary from negative night time temperatures to temperatures in excess of 50c at midday.
Day to day air temperatures are fleeting, ephemeral, evanescent, transient, momentary, extremely brief…..
Average air temperatures are moderated world wide by ocean temperatures and heat is stored/buffered in oceans.
Ocean heat is circulated/distributed to higher latitudes by ocean currents.
The only MEANINGFUL consideration with regard to average long term global atmospheric temperature is the rise or fall of ocean temperature.
Ocean temperature rise or fall is dependent on SHORTWAVE solar energy.
Longwave energy is a trivial factor.
Clouds shade the ocean to a lesser or greater degree and thereby moderate SHORTWAVE solar energy penetration of the ocean.
Clouds are therefore the most relevant factor to be considered in the climate debate!
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/light_travel.html
Shortwave energy penetration:
Sunlight may be detected as far as 1,000 meters down in the ocean, but there is rarely any significant light beyond 200 meters.
Cloud cover will affect the depth of penetration and therefore the energy transfer.
Well said KAT. Lower atmosphere temps are NOT World temperatures. This is a profound and irresponsible assumption made by many.
The fact that the trace varies so much gives the game away.
indeed as Jim Steel pointed out in his recent posting for temperature peak associated with the recent EL NINO is due to the oceans losing heat to space.
The oceans losing heat cause the “natural variation “ in lower atmospheric temps,
Surely as a true measurement of World Heat (if that were actually possible), lower atmosphere temps are largely irrelevant.
Oceanic thermal mass will always dominate the comparatively tiny thermal mass of the atmosphere.
Short wave solar radiation and its regulation through cloud cover explains everything.
The atmosphere is but a tiny component of the “whole “system.
You don’t try and measure your”core” temperatures by taking the temperature of the tip of your nose!!
Time climate science got real
A comparison of the two hemispheres show where the ocean warming has occurred.
https://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst3nh/from:1990/to/plot/hadsst3sh/from:1990/to/plot/hadsst3sh/from:2001/to/trend/plot/hadsst3nh/from:2001/to/trend
The AMO particularly has led to more NH warming. That will fade away when the AMO cycle reverts to negative in the near future.
” Ocean temperature rise or fall is dependent on SHORTWAVE solar energy.
Longwave energy is a trivial factor. ”
— No it`s not trivial
solar absorbed by oceans surface = 170W/m²
thermal down oceans surface = 356W/m²
Time to learn the basics ?
The effect of LWR on the ocean TEMPERATURE is trivial due to the latent heat of evaporation.
The ocean TEMPERATURE influences atmospheric temperature.
Water in contained in a canvas bag is COOLED by hot winds.
CAPICE!
But but hockey stick …
This chart is proof my 1997 climate prediction was the only accurate prediction in history: “The climate will get warmer, unless it gets cooler”. I’m still waiting for my Nobel Prize !
Of topic, but at the moment commenting seems to be broken for me on different browsers. Firefox, shows all the style options as large column wide icons, and removes all the spaces as I type.
You’re not alone. The stylesheet seems to have gone awol.
I had the same problem a couple of days ago & haven’t seen it since. Even
reloading didn’t help for a particular post once it occurred but it didn’t occur
on every post. Since then, it’s cleared up even on those where it did occur.
Yes. It’s just started working in Firefox again. Maybe I had some caching problems.
I experienced this on Firefox as well a few days back. A firefox update solved the issue for me.
I had the same problem. I cleared the browser cache and everything returned to normal.
I see it with Microsoft Edge too.
I’ve decided that about once each week I need to do a cold start of the computer and
also of the Wi-Fi/modem in-house network. Otherwise, I start to encounter flakey things.
I use MS Edge.
This is the 5th warmest August in the UAH data.
The ten warmest Augusts are:
1998 continues to be the real outlier in terms of August temperatures.
“This is the 5th warmest August… “
But not here. Not a chance.
Depends on where “here” is. I was of course revering to the UAH global lower troposphere average, as that’s what this post is about.
Here in England, it’s been the 3rd warmest August in records going back to 1884, and only 0.1°C cooler than the equal warmest Augusts of 1995 and 1997.
“Depends on where “here” is”
Use your model. Global averages really are quite meaningless.
Not an outlier when a person understands the real climate drivers. At the moment we have reduced Antarctic albedo driving up the temperature by a few tenths of a degree.
This added to the ocean warming driven by the increased solar energy absorption over the past 25 years has led to some minor warming.
The hottest August of the past century was probably 1936.
That is why he only went back to the 1980s.
The global warming theories cannot explain the MWP, LIA of the 1930 temperatures. The CO2 control knob theory is totally falsifiable by that fact.
I only went back to 1978 because I’m using UAH satellite data – the subject of this post. If WUWT ever gets round to publishing data from non-UAH sources, I could give you the longer view then.
Any evidence for that? It’s not in any global data set I’ve ever seen.
I suppose Tilman means CONUS,and not the Globe.
GHCN daily absolute value average for CONUS:
1937 8 32.23
1983 8 31.99
2011 8 31.90 (!)
1936 8 31.89
1938 8 31.80
1913 8 31.66
1943 8 31.60
1930 8 31.59
1952 8 31.53
2020 8 31.52
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/09/03/1120756615/stressed-out-about-climate-change-4-ways-to-tackle-both-the-feelings-and-the-iss
This is hilarious.
Anybody who is “stressed out” about the evidence-light “Catastrophic/dangerous, CO2-driven anthropogenic global warming/climate change” CONJECTURE is suffering two (2) ailments:
(1) they’re victims of NPR’s deliberate and intentional two-decade long dissemination of climate misinformation and propaganda and
(2) they have an underlying but treatable anxiety disorder that can be addressed by getting the actual facts and ceasing to get climate misinformation from NPR.
ONE INDISPUTABLE FACT IS THAT NPR IS LYING ABOUT CLIMATE.
Over on his blog Dr. Spencer said the stratosphere cooled enough to make 2022/08 the coldest August in the period of record. We’ll have to wait for the TLS file to update for the details.
While I would prefer warmer weather, I see the cooling continues.
Earth has been cooling since February 2016. Liable to continue at least until 2023. But of course seven years of cooling under ever higher plant food in the air doesn’t falsify CACCA. No amount of evidence is allowed to do that.