Guest Essay by Kip Hansen — 29 May 2022
National Public Radio is one of the chief purveyors of biased information about climate and climate-related issues in the United States. Their Editorial Narratives for all topics falling under the classification “Climate” or “Environment” are strictly aligned with various UN organization official positions and pronouncements, recommended policies and closely tied to their publicly declared goals (which are autocratic and not democratic) and NPR’s information sources are often extreme activist groups and activist NGOs. As far as I can tell in my many years of reporting on science, health and environment, NPR climate and environment journalists have yet to produce a single unbiased report. In today’s cancel-culture society, I don’t blame them – if any one of them fell out of lock-step with their fellows, they would be shamed, dismissed and never work in progressive media again.
The latest example is from Rebecca Herscher: “Rebecca Hersher (she/her) is a reporter on NPR’s Science Desk, where she reports on outbreaks, natural disasters, and environmental and health research.” She wrote the piece: “Get ready for another destructive Atlantic hurricane season” heard on May 24, 2022” on All Things Considered.
There will be more hurricanes and tropical storms than usual during this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, federal forecasters warn.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts 14 to 21 total storms will grow large enough to be named. Of those, forecasters expect 6 to 10 hurricanes, 3 to 6 of which will have sustained wind speeds above 110 miles per hour.
If the forecast is correct, this will be the seventh year in a row with an above-average number of storms – by far the longest streak in recorded history. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, though storms sometimes form outside those dates.
Some of those ingredients are unrelated to human-caused global climate change. For example, the natural climate variation known as La Niña has been happening for multiple years, and it drives ocean and wind conditions that support the formation of tropical storms in the Atlantic.
But many of the other ingredients for a destructive hurricane season are related to human-caused climate change. Hotter ocean water and hotter air create perfect conditions for hurricanes to form, and to get large and destructive. And sea level rise exacerbates flooding when storms hit land.“
NPR’s Herschel repeatedly uses the word “destructive” in her report and says that forecasters “warn” as if it was part of NOAA’s annual hurricane season outlook. But, here is NOAA’s actual statement:
“Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.”
I have put last year’s prediction alongside this coming season’s prediction. More or less the same, with a slight 5% increase in chances of an “above average” season (at the 70% confidence level). NOAA’s prediction was pretty close: There were 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), including seven hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater) of which four were major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
This year’s prediction is basically: More of the Same.
NOAA has added one more Named Storm than last year and the possibility of one more Major Hurricane. Why?
“The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons. The way in which climate change impacts the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is a continuous area of study for NOAA scientists.”
In the greater scheme of things, we know that the increase in the number of named storms over the last couple of decades is the result of better detection methods, using satellites and radars to detect storms at sea that would have previously been missed and not counted.
Are hurricanes getting more frequent and stronger?
Not according to the real world data complied by Dr. Ryan Maue:
None of the above data indicate that Global or Northern Hemisphere Hurricanes are getting more frequent or more powerful. Major Hurricane Frequency is in a long-term tight band, and currently on the low side—lowest since 1987. Accumulated Cyclone Energy is flat and at the levels last seen in the 1970s and 1980s. (Some smaller storms may have not been counted in the two earlier decades). Finally, both global tropical cyclones and global hurricane frequencies are long-term flat over a 50 year period.
There is no indication that tropical cyclones or hurricanes, either globally or in the Northern Hemisphere, are increasing in number or intensity.
When NOAA advises the general public to prepare in advance and know their true risks, they are acting correctly, doing their jobs.
When NPR tries to spin extra terror into the hearts of the public by spinning NOAA’a annual hurricane outlook into something just a little scarier, they are failing at their jobs as journalists.
That said, tropical cyclones and hurricanes are highly energetic weather phenomena – they contain incredible amounts of energy and, translated to wind power, can be destructive. I have sat out direct hits from hurricanes twice on our sailboat – luckily an older heavily-Southhampton-built 40-ft catamaran. It is an awe-inspiring and terrifying experience.
If you live in a locality prone to hurricane strikes, know your actual risk and plan accordingly – prepare early when the occasion arises. Far better to be too prepared than not prepared enough.
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One needs only to visit one Caribbean Island that has suffered a direct Atlantic hurricane hit to understand just how powerful they can be. The silly Weather Channel reporter standing on a rainy windy street does not convey the true risk – in fact, it makes hurricanes look like something exciting and fun. That is irresponsible TV journalism. If you are in an active hurricane, stay safely indoors in a structurally sound hurricane -proofed building. Don’t mess around outside.
Hyping up natural phenomena to promote the Climate Crisis and its policy demands to intentionally panic the people is, in my opinion, criminal in the sense of shouting “Fire!” in a crowded theater.
There are dangers in our world, one of them is hurricanes, especially for localities that have foolishly built advanced seaside cities with billions of dollars of infrastructure at elevations of less than ten feet above normal high tides – and many of those on ephemeral sand bars. Think Miami, Florida or Atlantic City, NJ. The answer is not panic, but better planning, foresight, and mitigation of know risks.
Thanks for reading.
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I agree. NPR has zero credibility in climate change reporting. They are hopeless. There is absolutely no scientific content in their reporting.
The National Public Radio has a Science Desk – a very Public Science Desk. Expect a lot of Diversity and Equity, whatever these cute two words mean today. Don’t expect Science. A Desk, maybe.
Aren’t desks racist remnants of colonial patriarchal oppression?
Old man ==> Depends on the wood — white oak is most suspect….
NPR has zero credibility. Period. On any subject.
They have proven that they will distort any story in order to promote government and the socialist agenda.
Your tax dollars at work.
Some biased things considered with bias permeating the message.
Hersher is the worst in NPR’s two-decades worth of intentionally and deliberately lying to the public.
She and NPR are not journalists. They are advocates and proselytizers of the evidence-light “Catastrophic/dangerous, CO2-driven anthropogenic global warming/climate change” CONJECTURE.
I have repeatedly emailed NPR, Hersher and the Public Editor to complain about NPR’s violation of every tenet of journalistic ethics in respect of their climate reporting. All of them are stone deaf to facts or logic.
NPR is a national disgrace.
New Pravda Radio
Is it true, that the government organization responsible for naming cyclones as hurricanes move the distance for naming further east into the Atlantic? In other words, there would then be more named storms as a result. Or, is this fiction?
Robert ==> Fiction. They do name sub-tropical storms as tropical storms, but the difference is trivial.
Mostly it is the ability, with satellite data, to detect smaller storms out at sea that would have been missed 40 years ago.
“Tropical cyclones with an organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined circulation, and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) or less are called “tropical depressions”. Once the tropical cyclone reaches winds of at least 39 mph (63 km/h) they are typically called a “tropical storm” and assigned a name”
Those wind speeds are relatively common in the Pacific Northwest.
But they are not rotating.
They have a low pressure and a rotation yes?
Jeff ==> Tom is right — cyclonic storms must be rotating by definition. Otherwise, it is just a storm with high winds.
They usually are rotating, It’s just a very large and slow rotation.
Also keep in mind that many storms are now named when the winds are estimated based on satellite readings, not on actual measurements. There were many named storms last season that were considered tropical storms for less than 24 hours.
This quick-to-name way is, of course, to to promote the lie that tropical storms are increasing. After all, the media was quick to tell you that we had a record number of named storms last season, but didn’t bother telling you that some of those names wouldn’t have been named just 5 years ago. (Nor did they bother telling you that the Pacific was a record low for tropical cyclones.) The only reliable metric is the number of landfalling storms, for which we have records going back to late 1800’s and some unreliable ones going back further. For instance, a hurricane in 1814 put out the fires in Washington DC after the British burned it. Shakespeare’s play The Tempest was inspired by a hurricane in Bermuda.
Wade ==> Cable weather stations now take it upon themselves to name any and every storm system — Winter Storm Amy or whatever.
I’ve found it almost amusing that “The Storm Channel” will name every winter storm front that comes along but not name actual blizzards, winter events that in the past deserved a name.
(The Blizzard of ’78, The Great Blizzard of ’78 etc.)
Gunga ==> Never expect these things/people to make sense.
Old man and Robert ==> Yes, the definition no longer depends strictly on latitude/location.
Since you’re a moderator, I have two off-topic questions for you.
1) In the video of David Siegel’s recent post, I found an obvious error in the
graphic presented versus what he was saying. Should have I prefixed my
remark with “mod” to get someone’s attention?
2) I posted this late to an article you wrote on sea level & I was wondering if
NASA still makes a GIA adjustment?:
Here’s a quote from a previous WUWT post saying NASA inflated the SLR by
0.3mm/yr dueto the seabed sinking (GIA). Do they still do that?
“What’s more, the second graph is not really just from tide gauge data; it’s from
tide gauge data inflated by a +0.3 mm/yr GIA “adjustment,” to subtract off the
rate by which the sinking ocean floor is hypothesized to reduce sea-level rise.
The real rate of coastal sea-level rise from averaged tide gauge measurements
is only about 1.4-1.5 mm/yr (under six inches per century), and that rate hasn’t
increased since the late 1920s.”
Since MSL is a measurement of the sea level above the center of the earth, this
sounds dubious at best as the seabed level is immaterial & any change due to
GIA can be accounted for so as to leave a net change due to other factors.
My understanding is that GIA is a fiction created and used by the SLR group at U Colorado in their desperate search for SLR acceleration.
TonyL ==> I have detailed what GIA is in my longer series on Sea Level: Rise and Fall here at WUWT.
Old Man ==> Please email me at my first name at i4.net with these questions and I’ll get you some complete answers.
Did anyone else notice the 11-yr cycle of the past peaks in hurricane activity (2016, 2005, 1994) – and that this corresponded to the peaks of Solar activity in Cycles 24, 23, and 22, respectively? Meaning, any alarmist report on the upcoming hurricane season before 2027 (maybe 2026) is ignorant of this type of causative science.
Jim ==> There is some sort of cyclic behavior in the chaotic weather system in general — sea level, hurricanes, etc etc. Not all that exact, but many believe there is something to that idea.
This is just another “see we told you so” if their doomsday predictions materialize and “nothing to see here, move on” if they don’t. They will never report failures to predict, and there’s many of them.
National Research Council
Government of Canada
Guidelines on undertaking a comprehensive analysis of benefits, costs and uncertainties of storm drainage and flood control infrastructure in a changing climate
p.8 “There appear to be no detectable trends in historical extreme precipitation. Similarly, there appears to be a lack of trend in historical tropical storms (e.g., hurricanes).”
p.9 “The historical increases in flood damages are more strongly connected to societal factors including land use, population and wealth than to increases in extreme precipitation, as described in Government of Canada’s Canada in a Changing Climate: National Issues report (2021) analysis of normalized historical losses. The National Issues Report found that ‘the majority of rising losses related to extreme weather events are the result of growing exposure and rising asset values’. Further, this suggests that continuing economic growth can be expected to play a significant role in driving up estimates of future damage potential.”
JCM ==> Thanks for the Canadian reference.
Have the report’s authors been fired for heresy?
When NPR tries to spin extra terror into the hearts of the public by spinning NOAA’a annual hurricane outlook into something just a little scarier, they are failing at their jobs as journalists.
They’re not failing. They use journalist as a title, but for progressive orgs, ‘their jobs’ involve ‘making a difference’ in audience behavior, not informing modern citizens of all aspects of current events. As knowitalls, NPR reporters diligently work to create voting decisions that elect ‘leaders’ who’ll support the desperate UN-approved measures of reducing private auto mileage, reducing affordable energy for heating and air conditioning, and taking meat off the table.
At least NOAA is still, apparently, issuing some science-based predictions which citizens might still rely on.
Insufficiently Sensitive ==> There are a lot of good people working in our national labs and agencies. They try to do an honest job. They are not always allowed to do so.
That is what people used to say about the FBI just before it was shown to be rotten to the core.
Point to ponder:
How does a corrupt and dishonest individual rise through the ranks and end up leading an organization when all the rank and file are still all decent and honest?
TonyL ==> That is the nature of POWER….and has been known to philosophers (and religionists) “since forever”.
Yet certainly all the mitigating factors come into play on the grunts, peer pressure, job security, etc. Also however the 3 letter government agencies have had decades of biased recruiting and hiring of a left leaning mind set, that has ideology driven corruption.
I never tune in…I am not in favor of government funding of it. The hurricane season stuff reminded me of how cold the atmosphere really is…on average… freezing temp is at about 6800 feet of altitude. Back during WW2, there was a cook at an airbase in the tropical Pacific who wanted to fix a treat of ice cream w/o any freezer so he put the ingredients in a pot and a fighter pilot flew up to 15 or 20 thousand feet with it and came back with frozen ice cream.
Anti ==> NPR is not a Governmental organization — and the government is not directly paying the bills. Its complicated.
The fact that it is wildly on the left politically, and clearly in the pocket of the Democratic National Committee and the UN Globalists is obvious to anyone listening to anything but pure music shows for more than ten minutes.
The right wing in Congress repeatedly points out their bias.
“The right wing in Congress repeatedly points out their bias.”
Too bad they won’t do what they should do and end both the government funding & their tax deduction status. They are a partisan propaganda service & contributions to them should not qualify for a tax deduction.
DC is called “The Swamp” but in reality it’s a rat infested polluted sewer with too
many RINOs, including short-termers who are looking to get a two-comma lobbyist
job so they can’t be too partisan so they can attract a wider clientele base.
Can you say schmooz? I’m sure you can!
Thomas ==> The Federal funding goes to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. NPR itself only receives between 2 and 10 % of its funds from the federal government (depending on how it is calculated).
The IRS could pull their non-profit status but it would be tricky.
central east coast of Florida here … on the beach
every year it is the same hyperventilationg from the fearmongers. it gets tiring. These people
who make these predictions don’t know what is going to happen. They are guessing ,it may
be an eduicated guess but it is still a guess. It’s the same for the weather people who draw
those spaghetti lines all over a map, they are guessing, (some of them wildly). All this serves
to do is to keep people worked up, or worse they just ignore it altogether.
You would think that by now that the people who live in the coastal states would have enough sense to keep an eye on the weather during the storm season & they would know how to prepare if one is coming by/in, but the talking heads always seem to have to get people all upset & in a panic from June to Nov. This stupidity never ends.There is always an ample warning when a storm is coming so people have plenty of time to decide whether to hunker down or to run away. (I choose to ride them out,but that’s me)
Hurricanes are nothing to trifle with, but on the other hand neither are wildfires or floods or
blizzards. They are just forces of nature that have to be dealt with when they rear their heads and panic is not the way to deal with danger..
paul ==> And, triuthfully, Florida has it easy. Other U.S. citizens in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands do not have the choice to run away — they have to stay on the island (in truth, the richest sometimes lock-up and fly to New York for the week….)
and that’s why the panic & fearmongering is so stupid.
the people who live on those islands out in hurricane alley know what to do when they are the target.They know how to prepare & they know they live on the edge,.it
is accepted that things can get real bad real quick, it’s a part of island life. They
rebuild & life goes on.
As for those rich fob’s I ain’t got much good to say about them so I won’t say anything. We have them in Florida too.
And I would ask…When was the last time that the prediction was for a less active hurricane season?
not to mention, how many of those named storms were duds and petered out after a day or two. How many of them took a sharp turn north and died out in the north atlantic without doing any harm to anything. These wanna-be storms get lumped into the total number of storms for the year & the total number goes up & the hysteria begins. It’s bullshit. 50 years ago a lot of these dud storms wouldn’t even have been known about unless some ship had the misfortune of blundering into one of them.
It don’t take a genius to figure out why a lot of people including myself don’t take
predictions or the people who make them seriously. They lie & hyperventilate & pad
the numbers & change records at will, at every chance they get.
DonK ==> about 8 years ago, I think — the last strong El Nino
Increasing the air temperature reduces the energy differential between the air and the water and decreases hurricanes. While, yes, hurricanes are caused by a gas with a high thermal re-emissive potential, CO2 has zero input on the scale that hurricanes work on both at initial formation and especially once formed. The amount of pollution upon the surface of the water – oil and dust – has more effect on hurricane formation than any other factor.
The comprehension of environment is somehow still more than 80% away from a college degree. I’ve no idea whether its the professors, the faculty, the students or simply incompetence but incompetence on that scale is horrifying.
I visited the US Virgin Islands after hurricane Maria, a Cat IV. Their solar farm was completely destroyed as were many roofs. You’re right that hurricanes are no joke.
A very cheering photograph!
Evidence as to what I have posted before. When weather takes out power lines, the power generating facilities are still active so it takes a relatively short time to restore power. When the power generating facilities are destroyed, it will be months and months to restore power to an even wider are.
We not only issued our forecast back in March but for 10 years been doing an impact forecast outlining areas. This year we have scoreable metrics. Point is what is being said here was said by Weatherbell.com back in March and quantified, not just with ace and storm numbers but with actual forecasts for impact, in April. Read it here, not behind the paywall.
https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-impact-forecast. I just love it when “Official” forecasts come out because the media deems them to be, dont you?
Thanks for your great analysis as you & Joseph D’Aleo always “hit it out of the park” long before
The Team™ ever gets in the batter’s box!
You should send them a payment demand for stealing your work, Joe.
Joe, any data yet on if and how much Agatha may strengthen and how fast, if it reforms after it moves from the Pacific Basin and into the Bay of Campeche or Gulf of Mexico early this coming week?
Besides for what is here that is?(http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northeastpacific/2022/ep012022/intensity_late_experimental/aep01_2022053006_intensity_late_experimental.png
Joe Bastardi ==> Thanks for weighing in here and particularly or the link to WeatherBell’s Hurricane Impact Forecast. What a terrific product.
As you know, the tag “Official” is only given to elite government certified-to-agree experts, preferably those on the payroll.
Hurricane Agatha is currently @ 110 knots & will become a major hurricane before it makes
landfall on the W Mexico coast:
NOAA’s predicting below normal hurricane activity for both the eastern & central Pacific in 2022
due to the La Niña which is one reason for higher activity in the Atlantic.
Funny how NPR didn’t mention that.
Dave ==> Mexican Lives Don’t Matter — according to NPR. There’s not enough news interest in a hurricane that won’t affect US tourists in Cancun…..
OOPS- knots s/b mph.
June, too soon,
July, stand by,
October, blow’s over.
So Agatha is stll a TRS, she won’t be a Hurricane until the day after tomorrow.
simon and garfunkel april come she will I don’t recall any of your lyrics in this song.
DonK31 ==> It may seem like it, but not every rhyming lyric is Paul Simon quote.
Ancient mariner’s saying, been known for a long time.
Old ==> Yeah — learned it as a ordinary seaman .
It is not so much of a forecast, as an observation based on what has happened on average in past years.
But on the subject of Agatha, it is pretty rare for a storm to move ashore on the west coast of Mexico this time of year, and then go right across and enter the Gulf of Mexico.
But that is exactly what models are showing now, and more so with every run.
Note that with the present situation with gas and oil prices and supplies, a tropical system in the Gulf could be catastrophic for prices and supply. Worst case scenario, which is not very likely but is possible, is we have $10 gasoline in the US by the end of the week.
Here is Agatha (marked):
And here is the airflow pushing Agatha towards the Atlantic:
Old man ==> Generally, we U.S. citizens primarily focus on the Northern Atlantic cyclones and ignore anything that is not threatening our eastern (and Gulf of Mexico) coastline. Sometimes we worry about Hawaii.
Starting about a decade ago, they started naming tropical depressions, which they had never named before. Then they inflated wind speed numbers.
Wind speed used to be measured at 10 meters. You can do this on a ship, even. This is the long standing standard for the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Then wind got “estimated”, “at altitude”.
Infamous example #1. “Super Storm Sandy”. On it’s way up to NYC, it scored a direct hit on the Outer Banks weather observatory in the Carolinas before it started to weaken. Wind speed = 36 mph.gusts, sustained 28 mph. Result – more named storms, all going down in the record books for the annual tally. Global Warming at work.
Any assertion that National Weather Service has not rigged the game is not credible.
Direct hit on the Outer Banks?
The center of Sandy came nowhere close to the Outer Banks.
The center was hundreds of miles from land as it passed that latitude.
In fact, it moved in a path that was parallel to but far away from the southeast US coastline:
Unless by “scored a direct hit”, you meant anyplace that got smashed by the largest storm ever measured in lateral extent.
It was way out in the Atlantic, due east of the big northeastern cities, and moved in an unprecedented direction.
The fact that storm force winds existed that far from the center is evidence of the power of the storm and the size.
Anyone who thinks this was not a bad storm should explain how the one of the lowest barometric pressure ever measured at that those latitudes was possible in a fake storm.
For many locations in the US it was in fact the very lowest barometric pressure ever recorded, and those records go back a very long time.
The storm was over a thousand miles wide.
Sandy was not an example of a storm being exaggerated.
It is hard to exaggerate over $65 billion in damage, just in the US alone.
Hard to exaggerate new inlets where houses and roads were.
Yes, they are exaggerating the strength of some of these storms, and it seems to be getting to be a worse problem.
But do you really think there are no more really bad coastal storms?
What…those do not happen anymore?
I must have been thinking about a different storm, possibly that same year.
Sandy had a lot of help. There was a very strong Nor’easter that moved right into the same area over New York as Sandy and the combination of the two storms is what caused the excess damage.
That poor Nor’easter always gets ignored in this conversation for some reason.
Yes, it was what is called a hybrid storm.
“Any assertion that National Weather Service has not rigged the game is not credible.”
All the numbers are suspect now.
TonyL ==> It has been publicly stated that the increase in named storms if in part due to increased detection and slight changes in the definitions. A bit of a search will turn up a paper and a WUWT article detailing this fact. I think it was Pielke Jr.
Dr Maue’s chart entitled ‘Global Accumulated Tropical Cyclone Energy [ACE]…’ is divided into ‘Global’ and ‘Northern Hemisphere’. However, a link to the ACE data for ‘North Atlantic’ (up to 2020) are available from Dr Maue’s site.
Given that the NPR report and the NOAA forecast specifically refer to the North Atlantic region, I wonder why data for that region has been overlooked in favour of that from the much broader Global and Northern Hemisphere regions?
For what it’s worth, the trend in ACE in the North Atlantic region from 1900-2020 is +4.92 10^4 Knots^2. The 30-year running mean suggests there has been a notable increase in this rate centred around the late 1970s / early 1980s. The North Atlantic ACE trend over the most recent 30-year period was +14.52 10^4 Knots^2.
Nail ==> While that all looks reasonable, the data prior to the satellite era is known to be incomplete as there existed no method for data measurement and collection at that time.
Hey, am I the only one noticing that the models are showing Agatha moving into the Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche over the next couple of days and moving across Florida a few days after that?
Rainfall models are showing a huge deluge for most of the southern portions of Florida, and I do not think they even fully include and are accounting for the presence of a tropical system moving in and through.
p168i.gif (800×561) (noaa.gov)
WPC 5- and 7-Day Total Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (noaa.gov)
Nicholas ==> NOAA does not expect Agatha to continue as a Hurricane threatening US interests.
This is why I don’t live in Florida. That and the bugs.
Jeff ==> but what about the beach babes ?
That’s what the internet is for. 🙂
They have a hard time with scenarios that have a very low historical probability, and having remnants of a storm cross over from one basin to the other is very uncommon.
But, what I know is that anytime the remnant of a tropical system re-emerges over open tropical water, it can quickly regain tropical cyclone status.
It took a few days more than me (I spotted this possibility last Friday afternoon), but they are now looking seeing what the models have been increasingly indicting:
“For now, the scenario that seems most probable is a tropical depression or storm headed toward the Florida Peninsula in the Friday into Saturday time frame.
It’s too soon to determine which parts of Florida may see strong wind gusts, modest coastal flooding and the heaviest rain, as that will depend on the exact track of the system.
South Florida and the Florida Keys have the best chance to pick up periods of heavy rain beginning Friday. Given the locally flooding rain that fell there last Sunday, the flash flood threat is highest in this portion of the state.”
Tropical Storm Alex Could Deliver a Florida Soaking Late This Week | The Weather Channel – Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com
I have noted over several decades of living in Florida, that there are certain periods of time when moisture from the Pacific comes streaming across Mexico and Central America, and directly into Florida after crossing the Gulf.
This happens very quickly when it happens, and is mostly at the mid and upper levels (250-500mb).
When it does occur, it can be very significant and it also is very often not forecast in advance. It is like the models (or maybe the people reading the models) just ignore the possibility of such moisture feeds, since mostly it does not occur. Mostly our moisture, at any levels, does not come from the Pacific.
Remnant circulation is far more rare to cross over from one basin to the other across Mexico/Central America. But it does occasionally occur.
In any case, the good news here seems to be that right now at least, wind shear will limit any possible development.
The bad news may be (and only maybe), that tropical storms and depressions, especially when they are broad and slow moving, are the storms that in my experience often drop the largest amounts of widespread flood causing rains.
The worst case scenario I was trying to get ahead of in the unlikely chance it occurred, was the rather sudden appearance of a strong or strengthening tropical system that is very near a lot of inhabited areas, comes with almost no prior warning, and is occurring at a time of year when most people are not expecting such storms.
As a last word, take a look at what the intensity forecasts are indicating, and what the spaghetti plots are showing, and what rainfall model runs are calling for:
Forecasters have been discounting what models have been hinting at in an increasingly strong manner for many days.
Nicholas ==> Weather systems are generally a lot larger than we think. NOAA is currently predicting that the weather system that was Agatha will continue across the Gulf, over Cuba, and arrive at Florida.
Latest is: ” Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, this system could become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week. “
That large area of heavy rain is expanding and getting wetter with each model run.
It now shows a larger area of brown with some yellow spots, indicating over 7 to as much as 10 and even 15″ of general rainfall.
Local amounts are always higher, and most of this is coming over a 48 hour period from Friday to Sunday.
The longer such forecasts persist, the more likely they tend to become.
And when they are trending towards more rain, that is worse than if the are staying the same or decreasing with successive model runs.
Southern Florida needs rain, but we have been getting some already, and a lot in some spots, and we are at the very beginning of a reliably rainy rainy season…so we definitely do not need feet of rain at once and right now.
But I think we are gonna get some. Hoping it is not the higher end of what this rainfall forecast is indicating.
In fact, Agatha is expected to regain TS status today, and drop an absolute deluge on a large part of Florida.
Most of the rain will come during the 24 hours from Friday to Saturday:
But it is not being referred to as the same storm system, as it would be if it had not changed ocean basins.
This article points out that the system that will be named Alex consists of the remnant low and circulation of Agatha, but downplays the connection by referring to it as some generic “Central American Gyre”.
But at some point, it will be recognized as the same system, as occurred about two years ago when Amanda became Cristobal.
This article also discusses what I was referring to re climatologically favored areas for development during each month of the hurricane season:
Tropical Depression or Storm Likely in Gulf of Mexico; Florida Soaking Begins Friday | The Weather Channel – Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com
Believe it or not, I do know exactly what I am talking about on this subject.
Nicholas ==> I don’t think anyone is arguing with you here…..West to East Tropical Storms are not that uncommon in the Gulf. Don’t expect this TS to reach hurricane strength.
Nothing at all ununusal about west to east movement of TS storms in the Gulf, particularly this time of year.
Early and late in the hurricane season, westerly steering currents may be more common than other directions.
Sometimes we have entire rainy seasons here with predominantly what is locally called a “reverse flow”, which means we get morning instead of afternoon rain here in the western side of Florida. This time of year, it is because the Easterlies have not strengthened enough yet to push the westerlies north of the peninsula. Another way of saying it is, the Bermuda High is still too weak or too far east or south.
Later in the season, it can happen that the axis of the Bermuda High drifts southward enough to bring westerly wind flow to parts of Florida and the Gulf region.
And yes, I never said anything about it becoming a hurricane.
Mostly I was talking about how much rain the models were showing, and secondarily about how it was taking so long for forecasters to send out alerts for what was being strongly indicated by, AFAICT, every model run of every model, including the precip models: The system retaining circulation and becoming a depression or TS in the Atlantic basin.
A weak hurricane cannot be ruled out, but no one has predicted that. Everyone in these areas always should keep in mind though that occasionally a system will surprise eveyone and do something none of the models was predicting.
The intensity models though are showing at least some chance of winds getting up to near a minimal hurricane, it should be noted.
One thing we see too often is boaters out on the water when these storms blow in, so I think those in the business of keeping people updated about the weather should always do their best to mention what is possible, not just what is certain or thought likely…which can be done while also pointing out that some possibilities are not very likely.
Another thing that people do well to keep in mind is that in a TS, winds aloft may be pretty strong, and intense thunderstorm cells often bring these winds right down to the surface. Also, weak tornadoes are not at all out of the question with any TS, and waterspouts are common out over the open water in any large thunderstorm.
Already winds at the 850 mb level are over 55mph in the area of Dry Tortugas:
earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions (nullschool.net)
Factors against hurricane development are exactly what I was talking about in a seperate comment tthread here: Vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment into the low. Also weighing against rapid development is proximity to land, and water temp that is not all that warm either for this time of year or relative to the sorts of water temps that favor rapid strengthening, generally near or above 90°F. Right now surface taps in the gulf appear to be mostly low 80s to maybe 84. I did not see anything above that last time I looked:
earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions (nullschool.net)
Climatologically, this area and this time of year almost never produce any but minimal hurricanes.
In any case, the biggest threat is always flooding, and it is looking like it is gonna be enough rain over a wide area that at least some locales will be getting some flooding.
I live on the highest land in SW Florida, and have over ten feet of yellow sand under me…which is good because this thing is going to pass right over my house, and may drop anywhere from 5 to 10 inches of rain on me…and some spots are looking possible for as much as 15″.
I am hoping for these rain totals to be an big overestimate, because that much rain will flood a bunch of people, especailly since it is expected to mostly fall between now and some time on Saturday, possibly mostly in the overnight hours.
Thanks for the response.
Looks like winds very close to a minimal hurricane will be not far above the surface, at 850mb level, right over south Florida by the overnight hours:
earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions (nullschool.net)
I finally realized why what models are showing and what actually occurred did not match up with what you correctly point out forecasters are saying…Agatha is not expected to continue yada yada yada.
Besides for the fact that passage over land and especially mountains is sure to greatly weaken any tropical cyclone, is the fact that when a system moves from one basin to the other, it does not retain it’s name.
They treat it as a whole new system.
This is the opposite of what occurs if a system moves ashore say in Texas, and a week later the remnant low emerges off the East coast, and then restrengthens.
In that case, it keeps the same name and is recognized as being the same storm system…but not so when one moves across from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin or vice versa.
That is why the official forecast plots show Agatha just disappearing, but the spaghetti models show nothing of the sort.
A perfect example of what I am talking about was Hurricane Ivan back in the 2004 season.
Hurricane Ivan – Wikipedia
If the remnants of Agatha redevelop into a TS, it will not be called Agatha.
What is weird though, is that forecasters seem to think that because the name is not retained, there is some actual difference between the two situations, rather than just some naming convention.
Nicholas ==> Right-o. What was Agatha is now “Potential Tropical Cyclone One” just off the Yucatan.
“NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dyamics Laboratory (GFDL): “Leaders in Climate Model Development and Research.” See their website.
For about a decade (or even longer), GFDL has annually updated their statement on hurricanes and climate change. This excerpt from their 15 August 2019 update lists some of their negative findings about current hurricane activity.
“We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there remains just a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. Statistical tests indicate that this trend is not significantly distinguishable from zero. In addition, Landsea et al. (2010) note that the rising trend in Atlantic tropical storm counts is almost entirely due to increases in short-duration (<2 day) storms alone. Such short does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.“-lived storms were particularly likely to have been overlooked in the earlier parts of the record, as they would have had less opportunity for chance encounters with ship traffic. …
“The evidence for an upward trend is even weaker if we look at U.S. landfalling hurricanes, which even show a slight negative trend beginning from 1900 or from the late 1800s. …
“While major hurricanes show more evidence of a rising trend from the late 1800s, the major hurricane data are considered even less reliable than the other two records in the early parts of the record. …
“In short, the historical Atlantic hurricane frequency record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.“
Richard ==> Thank you for the references…well done!
You could do a story like this about NPR climate reporting on a daily basis.
I don’t want my tax money going to fund the NPR Propaganda Network.
Government needs a lot of reform.
Tom.1 ==> If I only had the time….
And yet …
The population of Miami-Dade County, Florida in 2020 was 2.7 million, 8% up from the 2.5 million who lived there in 2010. For comparison, the US population grew 6.5% and Florida’s population grew 15.3% during that period.
In the competition between tornadoes/floods/snow/ice and hurricanes, Florida is a winner.
Exactly why they use the sleight of hand of employing meaningless metrics like “economic damage” to “suggest” worsening weather when the real issue is we keep building more stuff in risk exposed areas.
AGW ==> The “economic damage” metric is perfectly valid. It tells us something useful. Just not that hurricanes are getting worse or more destructive or more frequent.
“Economic Damage” tells us that localities are still allowing more and more development of at risk locations. Building two million dollar homes where a “disposable” summer cabin used to sit.
I run my generator every other week or so in preparation, should we get hit this year. The protrusion of North Carolina provides some protection to southeastern Virginia for the most frequent paths of these storms.
Stu ==> One of the hurricanes I sat out on my sailboat was in North Carolina — a direct hit, eye passed right over us.
“One of the hurricanes I sat out on my sailboat was in North Carolina — a direct hit, eye passed right over us.”
Ahhhh, sigh! Reminds me of the “good old days” when I was with the Navy Hurricane Hunters (Project Stormfury, Aug 1969).
Bill ==> Interesting Times!
Ha! Climate change is supposed to be global and yet all they want to talk about is the N. Atlantic hurricane season. It is fine to talk about the N. Atlantic basin season and its possible impact but if your going to try and claim that changing climate then it should be reported in the larger context of the Global ACE.
This year so far the Global ACE is 78% of the “normal”. If I remember correctly last year the Global ACE was 87% of the “normal” and the 2020 season was even lower than that!
The claim that “climate change” is making tropical cyclones more frequent or more powerful is not being proved out by the numbers.
Southern Florida is very dry right now. Hurricanes are nature’s way of replenishing water tables. Southern FL needs rain but hoping it comes with far less energy than a massive hurricane.
As far as the variability of strength is concerned, the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current comes in to play. It flows north through the Yucatan Strait sending warm water to the northern gulf. When it gets too far north it pinches off an eddy and flows more easterly along Cuba for a while and then slowly begins to work its way north again. Meanwhile the eddy cools.
The timing is random. If anomalously warmer water is in the Northern Gulf in hurricane season, like this year, then the potential for stronger hurricanes exists, but it is random.
There are far more factors than just water temp.
And by the height of hurricane season, the water is always…always…very warm in the Gulf of Mexico.
This crap about global warming making hurricanes stronger is just that…crap.
The potential for strong storms always exists.
Even when it is not hurricane season.
Hurricanes have occurred in the Atlantic basin (which of course includes the Gulf) during every month at one time or another.
The biggest factor is wind shear. The winds have to be from the same direction and at the same speed or close to it at all levels.
The presence or lack of dry air plays a huge role. The dew point must be very high, and dry air at any altitude layer will weaken and disrupt a storm.
And high pressure must exist aloft of the storm center, to get strong outflow in all four quadrants to get the strongest and most persistent tropical cyclones.
Sea surface temp of course is a factor, and how deep the warm layer is is also important. But water temp alone has a small role.
The water is plenty warm enough over vast areas for many months of the year, and year around over large areas. So obviously water temp alone plays a small role. One cannot predict the strength or lack thereof by looking at water temp.
Nothing about sea surface temp will allow anyone to predict where and when storms will form, and what will happen when they do.
Warmistas are not very smart people, and they are very poorly informed and educated.
Like everything they say, their malarkey about hurricanes is purely false.
It may be the very opposite of true, with more and stronger hurricanes when the globe is cooler.
But there is not enough data to say.
Predictions of hurricane season storm totals are just educated guesses based on long term averages with certain variables like ENSO factored in.
Nothing can predict where a storm will form, or when, where it will go, in advance. Period.
The best one can do is note the climatologically favored regions as the season progresses.
NPR=BBC for accuracy. NONE !!. Just CC panic blasting. The sky is falling and it’s all our fault. All they do is push the CC scam.
It’s a race to the bottom on mind control….
China Tops Google, YouTube Results on Covid Origins and Beijing’s Human-Rights RecordOn issues important to Beijing, official Chinese sources also enjoy strong placement on YouTube and other widely used U.S. services, a new report finds
China Tops Google, YouTube Results on Covid Origins and Beijing’s Human-Rights Record – WSJ
Don’t nobody here sneeze. Sure as shootin;, they’ll name it.