Essay Contest Results Delayed a Bit-And Open Thread

Due to unforeseen trials and tribulations of life, weather, geography, and health, we will be a few weeks late announcing and publishing the essay contest winners.

Feel free to use this post as an open thread.

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January 30, 2022 10:27 pm

I found a strong correlation between the greening of earth and warming.
Anyone interested in discussing it here?

Reply to  HenryP
January 31, 2022 12:21 am

Let me copy and paste that comment about the correlation between warming and greening here:
I like your jokes. But this is no joke. This is serious:
Arjan asked me (on the Dutch blog)
Henry, can you quantify the warming due to greening?
Henry says:
Arjan, you hit the hammer on the nail. I also first thought that it might not be significant.
Here is the abstract from the report from John Christy et al from 2006:
The debiased segments are then merged, forming a complete regional time series. Time series of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for stations in the irrigated San Joaquin Valley (Valley) and nearby non-irrigated Sierra Nevada (Sierra) were generated for 1910–2003. Results show that twentieth-century Valley minimum temperatures are warming at a highly significant rate in all seasons, being greatest in summer and fall (> +0.25°C decade−1). The Valley trend of annual mean temperatures is +0.07° ± 0.07°C decade−1. Sierra summer and fall minimum temperatures appear to be cooling, but at a less significant rate, while the trend of annual mean Sierra temperatures is an unremarkable −0.02° ± 0.10°C decade−1. A working hypothesis is that the relative positive trends in Valley minus Sierra minima (>0.4°C decade−1 for summer and fall) are related to the altered surface environment brought about by the growth of irrigated agriculture, essentially changing a high-albedo desert into a darker, moister, vegetated plain.

  1. So they measured 0.07 C/decade, but in neighboring Sierra Nevada the temperature went down by 0.02C/ decade, due to natural causes. So the corrected result is 0.09K/decade. Agreed? This is over90 years.
  2. Now look at my result in Las Vegas. This also used to be a desert. The average temperature went up by 0.65K per decade. That is about +3C over de last 50 years.
  3. Johannesburg is one of the few places in South Africa where I observed some significant warming. Note that Johannesburg did not have any natural water. This used to be savannah. But there was gold. So they brought water. Here I measure + 0.18C per decade.
  4. Now let us look at the areas in the Arctic. If you look carefully on the chart at the beginning of my post (click on my name) you can see that the leaf area increased by more than 50% in the areas around the arctic ocean. It appears from current measurements that it is warming there by about 0.5K per decennium.

0.09 + 0.65 + 0.18 +0.5 / 4 = 0.36K/decade.
This is 300% of the warming reported by Spencer &….. But obviously, we only looked at a few areas where we know that it became a lot greener.
Amazing, is it not?

Peta of Newark
Reply to  HenryP
January 31, 2022 1:58 am

Yes you would Henry – about 6,000 years too late.

OK, maybe the other way around..
The thing to notice is how the Holocene Warm Period came to a very abrupt end at exactly the same time the Sahara Desert came into being

The answer is below yours, mine and everybody’s feet.
Where there are living plants, there are masses of dead and decomposing plants in the top 6, 12, 20 or 30 inches of soil/dirt.
And all that cellulose and lignin clings onto epic amounts of water and that water clings onto and stores epic amounts of water.
The most significant effects of that are a lowering of the Lapse Rate due to the humidity that it and the plants create but also that that water keeps you warm at night.
Just like a hot water bottle you might take to bed with you.

Henry, keep beating the drum that says “Water controls climate”
That climate starts under all ours feet and not up in the sky.
What sort of bizarre physics – physics that violate both Entropy and the 2nd Law – physics that says that a warming troposphere does NOT mean a cooling Earth

Reply to  Peta of Newark
January 31, 2022 4:18 am


All that you say and have said so far makes sense. Pity that no one has ever investigated this before. However, I just want to check with you or anyone. I can see from the report by Christy et al 2006 that the heat is most predominantly trapped during the night in the seasons when growth is at max.
I vaguely remember from my biology class that there are two reactions concerning plant life.
The one takes place during the day, under the influence of UV. Apparently this reaction is endotherm.
The other reaction (with CO2) takes place during the night – this is when the sugars are made and growth takes place. I believe this reaction is exotherm.
I think it is the latter reaction that does most of the trapping of heat during the night.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Peta of Newark
January 31, 2022 10:10 am

Peta, are you mixing cause and effect?

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  HenryP
January 31, 2022 5:50 am

just wondering- how do you get the comment number to add to the article link- to link just to the comment?

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
January 31, 2022 6:09 am

There is a comment link for every comment in the right hand top corner. It looks like a skew 8.

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
January 31, 2022 6:11 am

There is a comment link for every comment in the right hand top corner. It looks like a skew 8.

If you click on it, it automatically copies the link to the clip board. Then you just paste it where you want it.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  HenryP
January 31, 2022 6:15 am

duh… got it- thanks

Reply to  HenryP
January 31, 2022 6:13 am

We had a discussion the first time you posted this. Your problem is that you didn’t like what most of the people had to say about your idea.
Is this the 5th or the 6th time you’ve pulled this stunt. Give it up.

Reply to  MarkW
January 31, 2022 7:27 am

You and your ilk did not have anything constructive except to say that you (I) cannot tell the climate where to warm and where not. So I am telling you that I can predict where the climate will get warmer and where it will cool.

Russell Cook
Reply to  MarkW
January 31, 2022 8:57 am

… Is this the 5th or the 6th time you’ve pulled this stunt.

Need hep finding the question mark key on your keyboard? Or is your “Is this” a typo where you meant to say “This is” instead? And could you prove there were four or five prior “stunts,” if your reputation depended on it?

Reply to  Russell Cook
January 31, 2022 11:01 am

Russel, I think it was only on Willis’ post and I did that to just let Willis know about my findings. Never mind MarkW. Just ignore.

Richard (the cynical one)
January 30, 2022 10:29 pm

To those who insist on seeking out the truth, on speaking the truth, whatever the consequences, who give a forum for truth,
Thank you.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Richard (the cynical one)
January 31, 2022 5:52 am

right- too bad Socrates didn’t have such a forum, so he had to kill himself

Dave Fair
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
January 31, 2022 9:58 am

I wish some people using this forum would kill themselves. Figuratively, people, figuratively!

January 30, 2022 10:53 pm

Across the world the words have changed, but the game remains the same.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  gringojay
January 31, 2022 5:54 am

a rather unattractive guy who ranted about the glories of the blond, blue eyed Teutonic master race

Dave Fair
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
January 31, 2022 10:00 am

His mother loved him.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Dave Fair
January 31, 2022 10:27 am

How can you be sure?

Dave Fair
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
January 31, 2022 2:38 pm

Did your mother love you, Clyde?

Dave Fair
Reply to  gringojay
January 31, 2022 10:03 am

Money, as well as power, can play that keyboard. Rich Leftists (e.g. Soros and his ilk) predominately play that keyboard.

James Walter
January 30, 2022 10:56 pm

Is it too late to enter the contest? I never saw an announcement.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  James Walter
January 31, 2022 5:55 am

just look at the image at the top right of every screen for this blog

January 30, 2022 11:15 pm

Another thing I keep banging on about (apologies for the length of the post):

This coming year 300,000 children will die, not because of climate change, because of a lack of clean water.

Turn on the tap in developed countries and instantly there is a flow of clean, parasite-free, we take water for granted.

We are so used to our abundant water, many people turn on the tap to brush their teeth and leave the tap running. We water our gardens, wash our cars, brew beer, and play in our swimming pools without acknowledging this easy access to freshwater is a luxury.

In some parts of the world, safe water is not so easy to access.

The figures make for stark reading.

According to the World Health Organisation:

  • In 2017 29% of the global population lack easy access to safe, uncontaminated drinking water. Of these 2.2 billion people, 829,000, including 297,000 children under 5, died from diarrhoea alone.
  • 785 million people lack even a basic drinking-water service, including 144 million people who are dependent on surface water.
  • Globally, at least 2 billion people use a drinking water source contaminated with faeces.
  • In the least developed countries, 22% of health care facilities have no water service, 21% no sanitation service, and 22% no waste management service.
  • Contaminated water and poor sanitation are linked to the transmission of diseases such as cholera, diarrhoea, dysentery, hepatitis A, typhoid, and polio. Absent, inadequate, or inappropriately managed water and sanitation services expose individuals to preventable health risks. 

Diarrhoea is mostly preventable and yet we waste billions of dollars every year “fighting” climate change, arguably a fight that has only claimed energy-poor victims. Not a single person has on their death certificate “Cause of Death: Climate Change”.

The demand for more money to fight climate change has risen inexorably to the extent we are projected to spend trillions of dollars on a non-issue, whilst the annual cost of a genuine, fixable issue providing clean, safe water is estimated at $22.6 billion.

I accept recorded temperatures are rising. I don’t accept the mild warming we are experiencing in some parts of the world will be anything but benign.

Our species was born in Africa, only migrating out of Africa around 60,000 years ago when the climate became dryer and colder. We seek warmth, which is unsurprising since we are essentially hairless apes.

My issue with recorded global temperatures being lumped together on an annual basis and presented as a catastrophic road to hell is, I don’t think there is a global average temperature. I’m not even sure if there is a local average temperature. There are local average daytime temperatures and average nighttime temperatures for days, weeks, and possibly months of the year. The concept of a single global average temperature for a whole year seems far-fetched to me.

A global average temperature is a complete red-herring.

Helping the clean water impoverished millions is a relatively cheap and easy task compared with “fighting” climate change, a fight only nature will win.

Climate change doesn’t kill 300,000 children annually.

So why aren’t we doing it?

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Redge
January 31, 2022 5:57 am

“So why aren’t we doing it?”
Isn’t Bill Gates working on this?

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
January 31, 2022 10:40 am

Bill gates:

“We collaborate with government leaders, the private sector, and technologists to advance promising new toilet and waste treatment technologies, service delivery models, and policies with the greatest potential to revolutionize sanitation standards and practices at the local and national levels. “

All people want is clean water

What the Gates Foundation is doing is giving money to companies to experiment

Companies such as One Foundation are digging wells

For those of us who drink bottled water, simply switching our bottles to One Water helps saves lives

Dave Fair
Reply to  Redge
January 31, 2022 10:19 am

I don’t remember the details, but didn’t some nut doctor in the NW U.S. or SW Canada put (or advocate putting) “climate” on death certificates during the recent warming spell?

Reply to  Dave Fair
January 31, 2022 10:43 am

Yeah, I remember that too – politically motivated doc

Matt Kiro
Reply to  Redge
January 31, 2022 11:06 am

Know what helps getting clean water to people? A good consistent supply of electrical power. Coal , natural gas and nuclear power plants. If these were being built in these undeveloped places, electricity, good jobs, and healthier people would all follow.

Reply to  Matt Kiro
January 31, 2022 11:09 am

Well said

With the added benefit that people have jobs and children’s time is freed up. Instead of walking miles for fresh water, they can get educated

Win-Win 🙂

Rich Davis
Reply to  Redge
January 31, 2022 3:06 pm

So why aren’t we doing it?

Because denying clean water, refrigeration, and clean cooking fuels will continue to reduce the population of the types of people we don’t want too many of, to paraphrase Justice Ruth Bader-Ginsburg, while inventing a crisis allows the elite to control the masses with bogeymen, a process that is inevitably lucrative for the myth makers.

How do you propose to make us rich selling basic plumbing to deplorable brown people, Redge? Will there be subsidies so that we make money even when water isn’t being used? There seems to be a much higher return on investment wrecking grid stability with bird choppers.

Similarly with the cholera angle. Wouldn’t it be more profitable to invent a patentable pill that costs $1000 a dose than to spend that money on a well and cannibalize the market for cholera treatments?

Ideally the government will buy our pills and we can outsource the production to Viet Nam or something.

Am I cynical? Perhaps a tinch.

Reply to  Rich Davis
January 31, 2022 10:52 pm

Am I cynical?

Nope, realistic

Reply to  Redge
January 31, 2022 7:22 pm

Turn on the tap in developed countries and instantly there is a flow of clean, parasite-free, we take water for granted.”

Isn’t Flint, Michigan in a developed country? I started distilling my drinking water when we got a “boil water” warning in Calgary some decades back. And aside from killing Giardiasis, distilling water gives one very solid evidence of what else is in the water whenever one cleans out the boiler.

When I butchered my first elk and learned about liver flukes, I also stopped drinking from ‘pristine’ mountain streams except when I could filter the water. I’ve known all sorts of very experienced back country hikers who don’t know that you can get both Giardiasis and liver flukes from the most pristine mountain streams.

The main problem with polluted drinking water is consumer ignorance. I spent some time in Zurich, Switzerland a few years ago. And not having a distiller handy, I went to a pharmacy to buy some distilled water. They wanted a fortune for a pint, and when I told them I was looking for something affordable as drinking water, they told me that distilled water is toxic!

I’ve had a celebrated tea “expert” tell me that distilled water is not as good as Montreal tap water to bring out the tea’s taste. I would have liked to give him a bit of my distiller residues to mix in his teacup.

There are more affordable/accessible ways to filter water effectively than distillation, but the essential element is knowledge, first of the dangers the local water supply represents, and secondly how to neutralize them. Putting your faith in higher authorities gives you Flint, Michigan.

January 30, 2022 11:41 pm

The UK Mail online-the worlds largest circulation online paper-has got the story (at last) on the Canadian truckers with lots of photos.

I expect the BBC will have a 1 hour documentary on it tonight. Naw, only joking


Phil Rae
Reply to  tonyb
January 31, 2022 1:30 am

The BBC has an article mentioning “dozens of truckers” causing problems in Ottawa! They really are the masters of misinformation and fake news! Just too stupid for words!!!

Rich Davis
Reply to  Phil Rae
January 31, 2022 3:39 pm

Yep 1,667 dozen to be more precise.

Reply to  tonyb
January 31, 2022 3:57 am

Ottawa will be very interesting. People have come from far and wide to make their voices heard. It’s a giant game of chicken; can the people inflict pain on themselves without a paycheck?

Tom in Florida
Reply to  tonyb
January 31, 2022 4:34 am

Speaking of Canada, what do the Montreal Canadiens and the Titanic have in common?
They are both at the bottom of the Atlantic.
(Hockey fans will understand)

January 31, 2022 12:15 am


On Radio 4 around 30 mins ago, the BBC mentioned the F-word hinting UK fracking should be reconsidered!

Was I still dreaming?

Rod Evans
Reply to  Redge
January 31, 2022 12:43 am

I am impressed anyone is still able to stomach listening to the BBC and the Radio 4 morning moanathon too. Redge we salute you! As for fracking, the Luddites don’t intend to allow any positive energy extraction to take place so talking is about as far as the BBC will allow.
How any government can ignore domestic energy supplies and instead mandate importation of those very same energy resource is just mind blowing stupidity.

Reply to  Rod Evans
January 31, 2022 10:43 am


Albert H Brand
Reply to  Rod Evans
January 31, 2022 3:07 pm

Look at New York State. We have gas and could frack instead of importing our gas from Texas or wherever and be energy independent (maybe)

January 31, 2022 12:22 am

Support Joe Rogan against the old hippies for censorship

Climate believer
Reply to  fretslider
January 31, 2022 2:18 am

Yeah, Rockin’ in the not free to express an opinion at all world Neil.

Rogan: “If you’re a healthy person, and you’re exercising all the time, and you’re young, and you’re eating well…like, I don’t think you need to worry about this.”

…he added “that the argument that young people need the vaccine for other people made sense, but that’s a different argument,”

Why would you throw your bandana out of the pram over such an innocuous, and frankly widely held opinion?

What a dumb way of thinking.

Imagine if Neil Young (76) now dies of covid, he’d become a saint for the authoritarian left.

Reply to  Climate believer
January 31, 2022 5:12 am

I bet one or two of C, S and N may be looking forward to that

Reply to  Climate believer
January 31, 2022 5:20 am

It was known from the very beginning that these “vaccines” could prolong the pandemic, in other words make matters worse.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Climate believer
January 31, 2022 6:09 am

Neil Young now looks like an old drunk sleeping in the street. Rather disgusting.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  fretslider
January 31, 2022 6:06 am

a few music big shots don’t represent all the old hippies- most old hippies never heard of Joe Rogan or Spotify- or if they have heard of him, they probably like him since he’s very likeable- I speak from being an old hippy – Spotify is mostly about a young crowd who probably never heard of Neil Young, etc. Since Spotify paid Rogan 100 million dollars, they don’t mind losing Neil Young, etc.

I happen to like Rogan- he’s quite the mix of macho but smart- not intellectual- but smart in a street sense- I think the majority of the public like that combination, far more than dweebs like Bill McKibben and other climatistas. I never heard of Rogan a year ago- but after he started interviewing UFO folks I started watching him- now I watch most of his videos. It’s good entertainment.

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
January 31, 2022 9:27 am

a few music big shots don’t represent all the old hippies”

They don’t represent me. And I’m not taking my catalogue off of Spotify

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  fretslider
January 31, 2022 9:34 am

since this is an open thread and anything goes- tell us about your catalogue or give a link

Reply to  fretslider
January 31, 2022 10:45 am

I wondered how you got your name, mate

Rich Davis
Reply to  Redge
January 31, 2022 3:19 pm

Yes, please explain then name!

Reply to  Rich Davis
January 31, 2022 10:55 pm

That’s not for me to explain, Rich, I’ll leave that to Fretslider

Reply to  fretslider
January 31, 2022 11:02 am

Support Joe Rogan against the old hippies for censorship

Against an old man looking at his life, alot like many other old hippies.

Peta of Newark
January 31, 2022 2:14 am

No matter what Health Problems you may have (or have but don’t know about), follow Linus Pauling’s lead, example, research results and work.

i.e. Munch down at least 2 grams ## per day of Vitamin C – divided into multiple small doses taken at no more that 2 hourly intervals

## Synthetic Vitamin C, as bought in supermarkets is perfectly good but it contains, is made of, equal amounts of ‘cis’ and ‘trans’ Vitamin.
Only one of those actually works inside of us. That is totally No Problem but if you are really poorly with something, bear it in mind.
Up to 20 grams per day has no effect on anybody

But do it even if you feel ‘perfectly fine’ The constant low-dose regime builds resilience in your immune system and lets it do all sorts of ‘little housekeeping jobs‘ – so that if ‘something big’ comes along, you’re ready for it.

But do it especially if you have had any major dental work done – and that includes extractions of ‘big teeth’ such as wisdoms. Bits get left behind and they rot inside your gums without you ever knowing. In doing so, they inject a constant trickle of shit & bad bacteria into your bloodstream.
Sufficient Vitamin C ‘takes care‘ of them

Seriously. Really really seriously.
Bad Teeth Cause Heart Attacks

edit to PS
Vitamin C is The Major Anti-Oxidant. As such, it clears up the mess made when sugar molecules (Glucose) do as is their want = behave like little sticks of dynamite inside us in all sorts of places where they can do, they do do, very serious damage.
This will be permanent damage when they smash up nerve cells.

Vitamin C contains the blast and catches the shrapnel

Reply to  Peta of Newark
January 31, 2022 5:24 am

He’s quite a remarkable man. I have a book with his autograph sitting on my desk at work (under a bottle of vitamin C).

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Scissor
January 31, 2022 9:44 am

apparently not everyone agrees with Pauling, who lived to be 93

I don’t trust what anybody says about health. I think the best thing is just common sense- to have variety in your diet, clean water, no cigaretts, only modest alcohol at most, some exercise and don’t do anything really stupid, like drive recklessly or pick fights with bigger guys built like Joe Rogan. :-}

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
January 31, 2022 10:32 am

Aristotle, Plato, Buddha, and even Christ advocated moderation. Do you think that maybe they were on to something?

Chris Hanley
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
January 31, 2022 1:50 pm

Epicurus also, ‘an anonymous Epicurean who summed up Epicurus’ philosophy on happiness in four simple lines:
Don’t fear god,
Don’t worry about death;
What is good is easy to get, and
What is terrible is easy to endure’ (Wiki).

Dave Fair
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
January 31, 2022 10:34 am

I see this whole “megadose of Vit. C” fad is back with the ChiCom/WuFlu pandemic scare. No science involved, but some guy living to 93 is proof positive. If I make it to 93 (currently looking as a possibility) I guess that years of heavy smoking, excessive drinking and womanizing is proof that you can make it to 93 if you do the same early in your lifetime.

Smart Rock
Reply to  Peta of Newark
January 31, 2022 12:55 pm

Pauling was something of a genius. He got part way to the structure of DNA from theoretical chemistry, without the benefit of X-ray crystallography. So I take his recommendations about vitamin C very seriously. Didn’t stop me catching covid though. Perhaps it would have killed me if I hadn’t been doing the vitamin C thing, instead of which it just nearly killed me.

I have a hypothesis that ingesting vitamin C (which after all is an acid) lowers the pH of the fluid in your mucous membranes, making them less hospitable to viruses. I offer no evidence, but I point out that folk remedies for respiratory infections that rely on lemon juice, might also help by reducing your pH. Vitamin C’s anti-oxidant property is therefore (in my hypothesis) a completely different health benefit from its infection-fighting function.

David Baird
January 31, 2022 2:43 am

Not sure if fertilizer prices or market prices for soybeans meant fewer acres of corn planted in my neck of the woods last year, central Iowa. It was obvious there were many more acres in beans, more than I’ve ever seen before. Knowing Nat Gas is used for producing Nitrogen fertilizer, can the Green Blob not see how much worse agriculture would fare if atmospheric CO2 was at pre-industrial levels?

Farming Insider Warns The Coming Food Shortages Are Going To Be Far Worse Than We’re Being Told | ZeroHedge

Reply to  David Baird
January 31, 2022 5:25 am

No, they can’t see it.

Peta of Newark
January 31, 2022 3:33 am

You could not make this up:
Headline:”Concerns over food shortages as CO2 deal ends
From BBC

iow: They have thrown money at a problem that they themselves created and now realised that the money is rapidly drying up.
Attempts to fill the void via new taxes are gonna see an election soon, with Heads On Spikes across Westminster Bridge

Poor old Boris, only been wed a few months and now thoughts of Unreasonable Behaviour are filling the head of his Princess
She’s late to the party, those thoughts have been filling the whole of the UK just after the pair of them moved into #10

Science Is Dead, Politics Are Dead and The World Really Has Gone Mad

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Peta of Newark
January 31, 2022 3:48 am

More money coming soon. However, reduced crops this year because fertiliser is too expensive/in short supply will be unavoidable.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Peta of Newark
January 31, 2022 6:13 am

“Attempts to fill the void via new taxes are gonna see an election soon, with Heads On Spikes across Westminster Bridge”

Might be a good time to buy stock in companies making pitchforks.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
January 31, 2022 10:37 am

Companies making yellow vests. You are so old-fashioned.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Dave Fair
January 31, 2022 11:33 am

well as you can see- me and the little woman are prepared

Capture x.JPG
Dave Fair
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
January 31, 2022 2:41 pm

You would be better prepared clothed in yellow vests and holding AR15s.

Mark Whitney
January 31, 2022 3:55 am

I was marveling this morning how the news threads, MSNBC in this case, are more bizarre than the dreams I woke from. Anybody for some Mencken?

Dave Fair
Reply to  Mark Whitney
January 31, 2022 10:43 am

Been there, done that and got the Jolly Roger T-shirt (metaphorically speaking). I mistrust everything coming from government, big corporations, media and NGOs. They are all selling the same Leftist-inspired crap.

David Dibbell
January 31, 2022 4:36 am

Much is said about the global climate models. Are the models good for anything? Not for diagnosis or prediction of the impact of rising concentration of CO2 or other GHGs, in my view. But for generalized motion and properties of the atmosphere, a reanalysis model helps us see something very important.

How much energy is stored between us and space? How much change does it experience hour by hour?

The ERA5 reanalysis data is available for an impressive range of computed values on a 1/4 degree x 1/4 degree grid. ERA5 is a product of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).

For all of 2019, by hour, here is a time series plot of the Vertical Integral of Total Energy for a gridpoint near where I live in upstate NY. I have expressed the vertical axis in Watt-hours per square meter. Total Energy includes the latent heat of water vapor, kinetic energy, internal energy, and potential energy due to altitude.

See the point? The static warming effect experienced at the surface looking toward space of a doubling of CO2 concentrations since pre-industrial times is taken to be about 3.7 W/m^2. One can use the online MODTRAN model to confirm a similar value. This static effect can be expressed as 3.7 Watt-hours per hour per square meter. It is vanishingly thin in these plots in respect to the total value and in respect to the rapid changes in both directions. In other words, the atmosphere is obviously not static, and the effect of its dynamic operation is huge as experienced over a location on the surface.

So what? As I see it, the entire modeling effort which attempts to diagnose and predict the impact of CO2 emissions must assume this tiny incremental static effect can be isolated for computed analysis all the way from the surface to space through the huge, rapidly changing storehouse of energy in the atmosphere.

I’m not buying it.

David Dibbell
Reply to  David Dibbell
January 31, 2022 4:41 am

Replying to my own comment to add a similar plot of just the latent energy of water vapor. Same point.

Joseph Zorzin
January 31, 2022 5:48 am

“Feel free to use this post as an open thread.”

I suggest having an open thread each week- so that we’ll be less likely go off topic.

January 31, 2022 5:55 am

Go ahead and say it. The real reason that the essay contest is being delayed is due to climate change. Just another casualty.

Nick Schroeder
January 31, 2022 7:26 am

Based on my experience at WUWT and elsewhere I sense a pattern.

A cabal of high powered/profile PhDs (e.g. Pierrehumbert, Mann, Cook, Orestes, et. al.) with various agendas ‘splain w handwavium/hocus/pocus/jibber-jabber/jargon how on a quantum/molecular level GHGs uniquely trap/absorb/”back” radiate thereby “warming” the terrestrial surface.

There are not but three people on Earth who actually understand this scenario and the cabal and I are not among them.

So, who’s going to challenge them?

It’s back to first principles.
A Watt is power not energy, 3.6 kJ/SI h or 3.412 Btu/Eng h.
As far as the 1,368 W/m^2 ISR is concerned the Earth is a 6,371 km radius pin head disc with a cross sectional area of 1.27516E+14 m^2.
A total of 6.27991E+17 kJ/h bathe the Earth. That’s a considerable amount.

The 0.04% of the atmosphere that constitutes GHG molecules relatively speaking might gather up about as many of those kJ as a bee fart in hurricane.

And just where from do the GHGs get this magic “extra” energy in the first place?

From the terrestrial surface upwelling “extra” LWIR energy as a S-B black body which I have explained and demonstrated by experiment simply is not possible.

K-T Budget solar & calcd.jpg
Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
January 31, 2022 10:35 am

A cabal of high powered/profile PhDs

Legends in their own mind, all.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Nick Schroeder
January 31, 2022 10:49 am

Nick back at the crank handle. Some things never change, despite evidence to the contrary.

Nick Schroeder
Reply to  Dave Fair
January 31, 2022 4:15 pm

Got some?
BTW the Earth is cooler w atmos/albedo/GHGs not warmer.

January 31, 2022 12:54 pm

Disaster-de-jour from the Grauniad – all the birds are dying!!

Birds are remarkable and beautiful animals – and they’re disappearing from our world | Kim Heacox | The Guardian

Yes they need click-bait and they need donations, but seriously!?

This one will all too soon be an albatross round their necks.

Curious George
Reply to  Phil Salmon
January 31, 2022 5:23 pm

There is a strong correlation between killed birds and wind turbines.

Burl Henry
January 31, 2022 7:08 pm

Over the past 6 or 7 years I have consistently maintained that the Control Knob for Earth’s climate is simply the amount of SO2 aerosols circulating in our atmosphere. I have provided links to my work which, prove my contention, but it is continually ignored, with long discussions on the effects of CO2, , back-radiation, possible natural effects, others hypotheses, etc. etc

This being an open thread, could someone please explain why a falsifiable(empirically testable) and validated “model” is totally ignored? Even Anthony will not print any of my efforts, the most recent being “Climate Change Deciphered”

It totally negates CAGW, which is causing much misery around the world in efforts to control its effects.

Joseph Zorzin
February 1, 2022 9:42 am

More Than 90% Of Scientists Agree

another good one by Tony Heller- one of his best

February 1, 2022 10:09 am

I look forward to numerous geriatric rock stars cancelling Paul Ehrlich for spreading false information.

February 1, 2022 2:59 pm
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