By Linnea Lueken -January 19, 2022
Near the top of the results of a Google search for “climate change” was a story in The Atlantic, titled “Lumber Prices Are off the Rails Again. Blame Climate .” This is false. The evidence shows supply chain disruptions are responsible for higher lumber prices.
The article claims that recent high lumber prices and volatility are due to climate change severely impacting the lumber supply coming from Canada.
“When it comes to lumber, climate change has manifested itself in extreme volatility, lack of supply, and a paradigm shift in how lumber markets have behaved for decades. Lumber prices are the second highest they’ve ever been, today, this moment—ever. And it was precipitated by mudslides, which was precipitated by burning, which was precipitated by beetle kill. There’s an infrastructure story in there. There’s a climate story.”
While it is true that lumber prices are currently abnormally high, as shown by this screenshot of a five-year trend from the NASDAQ report on lumber (LUM), climate change is not to blame.
The recent spike in lumber prices is due to the post-pandemic supply chain and shipping bottlenecks. The already climbing prices were exacerbated by the destruction of infrastructure like roads and rail lines in British Columbia and the North-Western United States due to heavy rainfall that struck the region this winter. Parts of major highways like British Columbia Highway 1 were closed for repairs or debris clearing after the flooding and associated mud slides.
This atmospheric river event that carried rain to the West this winter is not an unprecedented climate event, but is instead a weather event. Climate Realism discusses the difference between weather events and climate change here and here, for example.
A recent Climate Realism article showed the claim that the recent atmospheric river event spanning the Pacific Northwest was caused by climate change was false. In the article, Cliff Mass, Ph.D., of the University of Washington, cited rainfall data proving the recent weather event was not sign of climate change. Mass analyzed the rainfall data from Bellingham and Clearbrook Washington, which goes back more than a hundred years, and found no evidence to support the claim that there has been an increase in heavy rainfall.
“There is NO HINT of a trend towards more extreme precipitation at either of these sites.” Dr. Mass said.
Atmospheric rivers have occurred in the region many times throughout history, and have been much more severe in the decades prior to the Industrial Revolution, as described by meteorologist Anthony Watts:
“The highest rainfall ever in California during recorded history likely occurred in January 1862, during the “Great Flood”. This was an atmospheric river event like we are experiencing now, but lasted several days, dumping 24.63 inches of rain in San Francisco, 66 inches in Los Angeles, leaving downtown Sacramento underwater.”
Strong weather events always have been, and always will be potential causes of infrastructure damage and supply-chain disruptions. The potential for localized natural disasters should be factored into infrastructure plans. Corporate media outlets like The Atlantic are wrong to blame climate change every time the skies open.
Linnea Luekenhttps://www.heartland.org/about-us/who-we-are/linnea-lueken
Linnea Lueken is a Research Fellow with the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy. While she was an intern with The Heartland Institute in 2018, she co-authored a Heartland Institute Policy Brief “Debunking Four Persistent Myths About Hydraulic Fracturing.”
Demand for all kinds of building products is a problem
Steel, is a problem here in Australia
The world just in time supply chain is beyond being stretched
Human impatience for we want it now is exacerbating these problems
Then there is the panic buying – just look for toilet rolls
I guess the lack of toilet rolls is because we have a lumber supply problem caused by climate change – NO its because we have 1 COVID case announced and everybody in WA rushes and buys toilet rolls
I just don’t get the fascination with toilet rolls. What is going on with these people’s anuses that causes them to need tons of the stuff? We have never bought more than one packet at a time through the entire ‘two weeks to flatten the curve’ and we’ve never been at risk of running out.
Did we flatten the curve? Maybe the gene therapy shot will help?
Let’s apply a little climate science logic.
All over the world, in most every jurisdiction, covid cases have exploded following vaccination roll outs, and cases have fallen where vaccine use is low. Vaccine use high, cases high. Vaccine use low, cases low. In fact, where vaccine use is low, hospitalizations and deaths are relatively lower.
Obviously, it’s all due to carbon emissions.
Scissors I wish you could source that information. I would greatly appreciate it.
Pfizer boss says it doent work
Says you need many more shots at least one every week to improve my profit
Home use of TP has exploded, so to speak, while business use has plummeted. People are staying home while commercial offices are largely empty.
The product form factors, packaging, and supply chains of these types of TP are so different that they are essentially two different products, even though the end goal of their use (tongue in cheek) is the same.
As John indicates that the “just in time” chains are stretched, that philosophy has constrained supply. Supply and demand rules again.
“Supply and demand rules again.”
Again?
The problem with toilet paper was caused by the fact that most large businesses use a different sized roll than do home users.
When a lot of people were sent home at the same time, demand for home sized rolls increased, while demand for business sized rolls dropped.
Here’s the rub. The machines that make the business sized rolls can’t be easily modified to make the home sized rolls. What was initially a modest shortage then turned into a major problem when lots of people panicked and started buying as much toilet paper as they could store.
Lumber prices are a result of the lumber cartel in the US limiting supply in order to raise prices. Part of that was convincing the US government to impose a significant, and probably illegal tax on Canadian lumber imports into the US. This has been going on for years – it has nothing to do with global warming.
Although I am retired from the industry, my son has a small building company here in the UK. He reports that in the last year or so softwood prices have risen from about £300 a cubic metre to anything up to £900. The price of an OSB sheet (orientated strand board) was about £9 two years ago but is currently £25. Roofing battens went up from 40p a metre to £1.12p at one stage – they have come back down now to just below £1.
The reason given by the suppliers is that the US has been buying everything it can no matter the price.
Also the supply chain is under strain due to a shortage of lorry drivers so supply and demand kicks in.
The theory of that suppossed cartel is that Canadian lumber industry gets the trees off of government lands at lower than market prices- so that’s unfair. Probably true, but I have been told by some mill owners in New England that Canadian mills are modern and very efficient which makes them very competitive.
Timber cutters in British Columbia have to pay a stumpage fee to the government for every tree they cut. They also have to plant three trees for every one they cut. BC is forever claiming that US producers are the one getting the better deal. Lets just get along shall we? We need that lumber and the US doesn’t have enough.
The stumpage rates in BC are farcical. BC Timber sales was set up to determine a fair market price for timber. Since then hundreds of small mills have gone broke, large players have consolidated their strangle holds over their fiefdoms where there is now zero chance of competive bidding for timber. Our forests are managed at third world standards with virtually zero intensive forestry to offset commercial forest landbase erosion driven by urban green interests. Stumpage fees, if they did go entirely to forest management are completely inadequate to properly manage our forests. Case in point, a major news outlet last fall showed a video of a slide blocking a major highway between Lillooet and Pemberton. The slide clearly initiated on a backspar (logging) trail. BC’s abandoned forest road net work of farcically deactivated roads is a National disgrace. As in all things, you get what you pay for.
And the headline picture isn’t a truck load of lumber, the load appears to be railway ties, probably headed to a backwards jurisdiction that still uses wooden ties, like BC.
Wrong, those are cants, probably headed to a resaw plant for further processing.
Those are the most perfect cants I have ever seen, each one cut to the same size without any round wood visible. But different places have different meanings for the word can’t. Perhaps they are railway cans?
Better check your facts on that interpretation.
There is not and never has been a lumber cartel in the US.
Right, MarkW, it’s not a cartel; it’s just hundreds of tree harvesters and lumber mills with common interests and hundreds of their congresspeople who listen to their complaints about the evil Canadians and their cheap wood. It might as well be a cartel.
Fruit is cheaper in the USA because of climate (and cheap migrant labour in California, but let’s not go there). That’s the free market in action (and Canadian consumers love it!)
Softwood is cheaper in Canada because we have more coniferous trees. That’s an unfair subsidy.
So goes the logic. And as Terry points out, it’s been going on for decades. Free trade in action; isn’t it wonderful? And every time the duties imposed by politicians get slapped down by the NAFTA arbitration panel, they rise up again. Like Freddy Kruger in those awful movies, they just won’t lie down and die.
And who pays? Who do you think? New house buyers and home renovators throughout the USA, that’s who pays. It’s you US taxpayers who should be protesting softwood lumber duties, not sniping at Canadians standing up for free trade.
==========================
Back to the point of this post – supply chains. Starting this week, all trucks crossing the Canada-US border (either way) will have to be driven by fully vaccinated drivers. More supply-chain disruptions to look forward to. Both federal governments have devised matching rules, presumably in unprecedented mutual collaboration to protect their citizens from the predations of the great unvaxxed. Not to mention punishing unvaxxed truckers for just existing.
We should all be grateful that we have such caring governments who go to such lengths to save us from harm! Just like they’re doing at the US-Mexico border…
Exactly!
It’s flabbergasting the Leftist MSM fails to report that the main reason for the worst US supply chain crisis in US history is being caused by US ports not operating 24/7 like all other industrialized countries.
US Longshoremen Unions refuse to hire 70,000 non-union workers required for 24/7 port operations.
Unionized Longshoremen make an average salary of $171,000/year with a $100,000/yr pension plan.. If they were to hire 70,000 non-union longshoremen who make an average of $60,000/year with no pension, it would jeopardize their current extravagant compensation package.
Because US ports don’t operate 24/7, they’re globally ranked in the 300’s in cargo processing efficiency, which is an embarrassment.
Longshoremen Unions also restrict robotics and automation technology from being used at ports which further increases processing times, but saves Union jobs..
Another problem is a new California heavy-truck EPA regulation which prevents 60% of US’ truck fleet from even entering California.
From a October 1st, a few test piers at a few test ports started operating 24/7, but this is having absolutely no effect, and was done for political spin to enable lying political hacks to say they’re addressing the supply-chain catastrophe…
Leftists are so infuriating…
SAMURAI, you have identified the two aspects of Supply Chain problems, which originate in California ports. The exclusion of non-union dock workers and the demand for trucks that are built after 2012 and driven by union drivers. This is a program endorsed by Gov. Newsome, never mind the wide-spread negative economic impact, it generates a lot of union votes.
“Unionized Longshoremen make an average salary of $171,000/year with a $100,000/yr pension plan.” That should be seen as criminal- and against all of us. No doubt the ports are also making a huge profit so they don’t care if the unions are gouging all of us. I think there’s nothing wrong with unions getting a fair wage but this is absurd. If this fact was ever mentioned in the MSM, more people might object but it won’t happen of course.
Joseph-san:
Longshoreman Unions we’re able to extort these exorbitant compensation packages through massive strikes which basically shutdown most imports/exports and wreaks havoc on the entire global economy, especially the US.
US Labor laws prohibit employers from hiring non-union members during strikes, which is a unique US provision not allowed in most civilized countries.
It’s outright extortion and needs to change.
Ronald Reagan just fired the air traffic controllers. I wasn’t a big fan of Reagan but I liked what he did in that case.
Joseph,
Please name 3 policies initiated by Regan you disagreed with.
Thanks, just trying to see if your dislike of him was emotional or policy based,
If the market is fair, then the wage will be fair as well.
Just because a wage is less than some may want, is not evidence that wage isn’t fair.
In a free market, wages will always approximate the net value of the labor being performed.
Uhh … most lumber used in the US is produced in the US and Canada … ports are irrelevant
The already climbing prices were exacerbated by the destruction of infrastructure like roads and rail lines in British Columbia and the North-Western United States due to heavy rainfall that struck the region this winter.
Yes, the exceptional rainfall caused by climate change.
So yes, climate change IS causing the shortage.
Duh!
I am a slave to reason and will be persuaded by evidence and logic. I am not a slave to bold fonts and exclamation marks.Come on; work at it. Bring me along.
You are a caricature of yourself.
Weather is…: weather, griff
Where is your 30+ year trend?
griff, did you consult the long-term rainfall charts mentioned in the report? NO? Then your comment is propaganda.
Are you and Simon relatives?
Explain the floods in California in 1862, which dwarfed last year’s flood. Still caused by Climate Change?
Normal variation and a normal atmospheric river are NORMAL – sometimes, there are floods. Sometimes, floods are HUGE. NO TRENDS = your claim is a FICTION. That’s how science works…
On a second thought, griff… you may be wrong:
Actually, the exceptional rainfall was caused by the arrival of Columbus to Hispaniola… you know, by that time there was no lumber market, everyone was happy recollecting fruits and other foodstuffs from the plentiful Mother Nature and chasing one or other furred or feathered beast. The climate was very stable, an equilibrium that could be testified by the older people whose memory was excellent due to the very organic food they ate (unfortunatelly, they did not live as long as we live today…). Columbus and his Ugly, Dirty and Bad soldiers and friends arrivedd and disturbed every bit of this peaceful, edenic, idylic natural life. Not to mention that, later on, they brought thermometers and other gadgets, paper, the damnation of writing records and keeping archives. And freedom of thought, of course, so that any ignorant was free to throw “opinions” about any subject even without having the minimum knowledg and understanding thereof….
Hey griff, perhaps you should read the article before commenting sometime. Though, then you might not have the energy to comment at all. Wouldn’t that be a shame?
Not even a mention of the long-running policy in Canada to subsidize clear cutting forests on the Canadian side of the border for exports to the U.S. lumber market as national policy. That amounts to criminal stupidity. Canadian lumber interests also bought up large numbers of sawmills across the U.S. in the process of limiting competition.
Citation? Evidence? I believe Weyerhaueser is an American corporation who bought up numerous mills in Canada then closed them.
Do you have any evidence that there was anything unusual about these storms? Or is that just what you are paid to believe?
Griff,
We had 9 inches of snow here last week. The average snow for that day is under 1 inch. So that was over a 900% increase in the typical snowfall for the day. Is that an extreme weather event? Schools closed for the day, but otherwise most places were open.
Btw, most of the snow melted within 5 days.
Couldn’t people just stop replying to this twat. He is so excruciatingly boring in his ignorance. The replys take up space before the next interesting comment.
DNFTT?
But it’s fun!
Griff the Duh! But we all already knew that.
I’ve lived in coastal BC for the past 50 years and took an interest in the weather during that time. The weather is the same now as was 50 years ago hence no climate change. I think we’ve established that you live in a world of your own not the real one, about time to change abodes
Not according to Cliff Mass, who knows about west coast weather.
His posts have been copied here.
Yes, but they were caused by bad weather which, according to the climate geniuses is caused by “climate change”. Just ask Griff.
Just *look* at the picture we see in the article.
Does nobody actually *see* what’s in that picture?
Use Street-map to take a ride along the road mentioned – Spences Bridge >> Vancouver.
What do you see there, in between horrible intermittency problems that Google had/has with their camera?
What I see is very steeply sloping ground denuded of its natural vegetation ##
In its place was planted conifer trees, the vast majority of which have been harvested and in places simply left lying on the hillside.
Hopefully this time I’ve posted a picture you can see, Just Look At That.
See the gullies that running water has created?
So the Canadian Clowns have built a road and a railway (what’s also that on the far side of the river?) at the bottom of a very steep hillside, comprised seemingly of sand and gravel and then destroyed the vegetation on that hillside.
Even worse, it is well established among (most) farming folks that if you leave a field of bare soil lying around on any slope of 5 degrees or more *and* a heavy rain comes along overnight, Do Not Expect that field still to be there in the morning.
Not at all hard to understand. This is NOT Rocket Science.
Then The Whole World is gobsmacked when, even on a day of modest drizzly rain, that hillside turns to slurry, gravity takes over, the hillside collapses and buries the road & railway.
Sorry peeps, for folks who are *that* stupid* I have No Sympathy – and neither should anyone else have any, they got exactly what they asked for and deserved.
You know the words for what I’m talking about.
I’ve got Empathy, but nobody wants that. As we saw with President Trump – he had shedloads of Empathy and see what happened there.
grown men (Abe Lincoln by example) might cry.
It gets worse because the clowns who created that disaster can now, thanks to the mental derangement that is Climate Change, blame everybody else for their own stupidity.
What do The Computers say – how the <expletive> is this going to end?
## I’m guessing that the shrubby low growing ‘stuff’ is the natural vegetation. See it in other places as you ride along that road. To me its like a cross between (English names) Gorse and Broom, with the colouring (silver grey) that Willow often takes on.
IOW Ma Nature put plants on that hillside that were perfectly adapted to stop the hillside collapsing.
Then, the Big Brains of Canadia knew better and selfishly greedily planted Christmas Trees there instead. If they’d left them alone it might have been OK, but no, they had to be ‘harvested’
sigh
PS. In microcosm yet beautifully illustrated by Streetview as you cruise that road and my picture = what’s happening to all arable farmland on this Earth
PPS Toilet Paper users.
Please for the sake of personal hygiene if nothing else, find out what a ‘bidet’ is.
They’re not difficult things to ‘impersonate’ with a splash of water (where the term WC came from) and a small cotton cloth/rag to dry yourself – even the citizens of Ancient Rome did infinitely better – they’d be horrified at ‘toilet paper’ and so should we all nowadays.
‘Advanced Civilisation’ = My Ar5e because the widespread use of toilet paper completely trashes the notion.
Not unlike the contemporary Face Nappies we’ve all come to know and hate – just as dirty and unhygienic as Bog Roll
edit: sp
Re: “Bidet.” We have the “Biden” here in the U.S.
And in BC didn’t they also drain a lake, build on it, and then express surprise when it filled up again?
Peta, your comment started out well with an on-topic observation about erosion and how landslides are being exacerbated by the lack of roadside vegetation that could have helped to hold the hill. You could have stopped with that but then, Jesus, it went from erosion to Trump to Lincoln to bidets to toilet paper and then on to your irrational fixation – arable farmland.
Peta, your roadside example is in no way related to farmland of any type, many farmers now are implementing modern soil conservation practices – do 2 minutes of research and look up “Natural Resources Conservation Service” formerly the Soil Conservation Service the organization in the U.S. that helps farmers implement the best soil management practices. There are similar organizations in Britain and many other places around the world. There’s really not much there for you to fixate on – it’s being dealt with. Move on to more rational things.
Oh, and much of the supply of toilet paper comes from other recycled paper products and scrap wood.
Well you are correct in that most slope failures in BC are human caused (95% or so related to water diversions, most of the rest related to fire). Everything else in your interpretation is wrong. Trees are growing into fire maintained grasslands because of a decades long, ill conceived, fire suppression policy. As in the US, that policy is the major factor in the changing character of wildfire in the Province. Nature is fixing itself.
“The evidence shows supply chain disruptions are responsible for higher lumber prices.”
That’s part of it. But also, as the economy took a hit from Covid- the demand for lumber crashed. When that happens, mills shut down- and workers go elsewhere. Then when the economy came roaring back- the demand for wood rose very rapidly and much of the wood industry just happens to be slow to respond because:
But wood pricing is all about supply and demand. The quick turn around in demand was too quick for the wood industries to respond- so they were happy to let prices rise as much as possible, like every other industry. But the industry is “atomized” like farming- so with high prices, mills are trying to produce as much as possible. Prices have dropped and will continue to drop. The wood products industry goes through these cycles every few years- rapid drops and slow climb back up.
Not mentioned yet is the cost of fuel. Fuel costs affect every aspect of lumber production and supply, from the forest to the final use.
I recall skimming a recent article somewhere that also alluded to the fact that over 600 smaller (family run?) mills had been closed in the last 4-6 decades. There may be all sorts of arguments that they were inefficient, couldn’t compete, etc. but I believe the primary reason was regulatory.
Labor, safety, and source (forests).
Out here the end result was the gutting of the local economies in many of the smaller towns in central and northern California. And forests that were left to burn rather than be used. Hello owls.
I can not help but think that the loss of all this “inefficient” capacity has affected the ability of this industry to respond to unusual market conditions.
Then there is the product! If you buy from a big box store you had better use it that day. Nails are no longer sufficient to hold your project together. You had better use some Simpson products on all your joints or you’ll end up with enough twisted railings that it will look like Dr. Suess built
it!
A few hundred mill closures in BC alone. Destructive Government policy is the underlying cause.
What is rarely – maybe never – mentioned in the media is that fact that the 1950s-installed Trans Mountain Pipeline was left exposed and hanging in some washouts for hundreds of metres, was dented and battered by landslides striking the exposed pipe, and was subjected to the same forced that destroyed the road and rail infrastructure in the area. The TMP remained intact and operational while all other infrastructure failed. This is a 70-year-old pipeline. AFAIK coating repairs were made and dented pipe was replaced but not much else was needed to be done to this amazing structure.
And we are told pipelines are dangerous?
The National Forests of the US are awash in billions of dollars of standing timber that used to be available for conversion to lumber, but are now locked up forevermore, amen, by never ending frivolous lawsuits filed by whacko green NGO’s and funded by the US taxpayer because of EAJA. As a result, US consumers of lumber must look to our good friend, Canada, for a still mostly available source.
Meanwhile, the National Forests of the US, with each passing year, grow older, more decadent, more susceptible to insects and disease, and more fire prone. Instead of vibrant, and I hesitate to use their words and play the game, “carbon sinks,” these forests are becoming “carbon sources.”
The failure of the US government to properly manage the forests under their “care” is a national scandal, and a disgrace.
EAJA?
Equal Access to Justice Act. Filed under department of Unintended Consequences. Passed during Carter’s lame duck year, 1980, EAJA was intended to provide a more equal playing field mainly for veterans with Agent Orange claims, to sue the federal government and have the legal expenses paid by the federal government = US taxpayers.
It has morphed into a vehicle for whacko green NGO’s to monkey wrench every timber sale on the National Forests.
And it will never be repealed because it helps to fund the Democrat party.
And when they lose, they don’t have to pay ANY costs. When they win, they get triple damages, mostly going to the trial lawyers, then to the Dem party.
So, climate change is now substituted for tariffs and trade policy. It was on everyone’s lips when Trump slapped tariffs on Chinese steel driving up certain steel prices in the U.S., but when Biden raises tariffs on Canadian lumber it’s climate change. The sad part is they get away with it in the biased media amid low-information readers.
All British Columbia’s problems can be traced back to bad government decisions. Climate change is a convenient excuse, for government failings.
If we want more lumber, let’s emit more CO2 – that is a valid strategy backed up by objective evidence – global greening. Just remember coal, gas and oil were long ago greenery.
Canadians have done a number on U.S. lumber markets over the years and they get away with it, from subsidies for clear cutting Canadian national forests to buying out the small and medium sawmills in the U.S. Then when Uncle Joe restarts tariffs there is no mention or connection to prices. I can understand one-Party manipulation of the news and events, but do they really have to rub our noses (knowledgeable observers) in it?
That’s ridiculous, Canadian lumber mills were once family businesses too, and some still are. They take whatever lousy price is offered by retailers until supply is maxed out due to mill closures. Then speculators shoot prices through the roof. Its basically rigged to produce big bucks for people who can afford inventory, rather than provide stable supply. Canadian/US trade tariffs are basically a diversion from the real corruption in the system. Governments are not the consumer’s friend in this fiasco….they make big bucks off income tax, stumpage fees, duties and countervailing duties…while getting virtue signalling points for “protecting an industry”. In reality, supply side management, like the Canadians attempt to do, would provide constant supply and constant prices for house-builders, and provide lots of day-traders healthy outdoor jobs as lumberjacks.
Tell it to Uncle Joe.
Biden administration moving to double tariffs on Canadian lumber despite already skyrocketing timber prices (msn.com)
Also has something to do with 4 companies monopolizing the entire supply.
When one lie fails, try another.
Ha! You ain’t seen nothing yet! Vax mandates for border crossing on top of tariff increases on imported woods from Canada. Wanna build a house? Buy used shipping containers and get to work.
Really only viable in a location that needs very little hating of cooling, you know, tropical islands, etc. Plus, do you like your rooms under 8 feet wide?
Who would have known that there is still someone who doesn’t know what an oxy acetylene torch and a welder are for?
Umm, perhaps there should be some mention of the Biden regime imposing punitive tariffs on B.C. softwood lumber? That was a major reason for the increase in cost.
Isn’t it amazing how the MSM can spin a natural temperature increase of a fraction of a degree over a decade into the cause of every catastrophe!
Well, there’s a little more to it than COVID interrupting supply chains, which it surely did, as it did to virtually every other industrial and consumer product on the planet these past nearly two years.
The other part of it is that lumber prices, like any other commodity are always determined by supply vs. demand. When supply goes down, and demand remains constant, then prices rise. But even when supply comes back but demand has risen too, that also contributes to the price spike.
When the impacts of COVID first became significant in spring 2020, the spike in lumber (and all other commodity prices) began, and then receded by late 2020. But then an even bigger spike happened in 2021. So what happened in 2021?
What happened in 2021 was the world economy and particularly the US economy bounced back hard from the short COVID recession, particularly in housing demand, which is by far the biggest demand factor in lumber prices. As someone engaged in the residential development and construction business here in Florida, 2021 was a crazy extreme demand year. People from up north who typically like t relocate to Florida in their retirement years started coming in with much higher proportions in the lower age brackets. And much of this new demand was also driven by COVID. We all know now that COVID peaks in the winter months when people gather indoors in large groups … and people know that if they live instead in sunny warm Florida, they can spend proportionally more of their time outdoors rather than indoors.
Plus a lot more people started retiring early, leaving the job market, and then living their dream by moving to sunny Florida. I expect the same trends are true of all the sunbelt states in the USA.
If you want to know why prices fluctuate – look no further to economic activity, market psychology, and the always controlling supply vs. demand curves. Not to global warming.
The same factors also equally impacted oil and gas prices the last two years, with a huge plunge in in demand during the first half of 2020 when people were staying home and businesses shut down, and then rebounded strongly in early 2021 through the rest of the year.
When Biden canceled the pipelines from Canada , then Canada slapped a tariff on lumber going to the US ……. I don’t blame Canada !
Just prior to the COVID pandemic, there was a major problem with lumber in Europe being misgraded to seem a better grade than actual.