The Week That Was: 2022-01-15 (January 15, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” – Attributed to Abraham Lincoln
Number of the Week: $433 trillion (20+ times the US GDP)
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: Last week, TWTW emphasized three important developments during 2021: 1) Forty-three years of atmospheric temperature trends where the greenhouse effect occurs show a modest warming, not a drastic or dangerous one; 2) the calculations based on atmospheric observations by William van Wijngaarden and William Happer show that the effectiveness of all five major greenhouse gases on global temperatures (water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, nitrous oxide, and methane) is largely exhausted, depleted, and that they do not have a major influence on global temperatures, and 3) contrary to what climate scientists assert, econometrician Ross McKitrick has shown that studies using Fractional Attribution of Risk (FAR) or Optimal Fingerprinting are not grounded on established probability theory and statistics. Probability assertions attributing the likelihood that an extreme weather event was caused by human emissions of carbon dioxide are meaningless. As discussed in the July 24 TWTW, one example was the flooding of the Ahr River Valley in Germany where climate specialists asserted that it was caused by human emissions of carbon dioxide, but a similar flood occurred in 1910 and a worse one in 1803.
This week, some other developments in 2021 are briefly discussed: 1) the January publication of significant problems with the US National Climate Assessment; 2) the August publication of the significant disagreement among solar scientists of the role of the changing sun on the globe’s climate; and 3) the February Texas Blue Norther, demonstrating that for public safety in the Great Plains, electricity generation needs to be winterized.
Issues regarding the credibility of government entities are discussed, particularly how government experts are undermining the credibility of their agencies. Also discussed are studies on the costs of making wind and solar power reliable with a Net Zero Policy showing that the costs are enormous, and that reliable and affordable wind and solar power are a myth.
US National Assessments: The January 9 TWTW discussed that The Office of Science and Technology Policy under David Legates has published nine information briefs on climate change from various scientists and scholars in North America. These briefs embody the view expressed by Einstein that in the search for truth, the weaknesses as well of the strengths of a concept must be expressed. The weaknesses to the view that carbon dioxide is the primary cause of climate change are not expressed by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), particularly in its politicized Summary for Policymakers, and this pattern continues through its followers including the US National Assessments. Pat Michaels gave an excellent overview of the problems in the four US National Assessments.
The esschangays cover issues such as surface temperatures, ability of computer models to predict climate, radiation transfer, the general circulation, hurricanes, and the claimed climate emergency. See links in the January 9. 2021 TWTW.
******************
The Changing Sun: On a number of occasions in September and October, TWTW discussed that twenty-three distinguished scientists made independent assessments of the role of the sun in the earth’s climate. There is considerable disagreement among these scientists. Their paper was published in the scientific journal Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics (RAA). Immediately “fact checkers in social media began to censor the publication and falsely claimed that the paper was “incorrect” and “misleading.” The “fact checkers” blindly accepted the claims in the UN IPCC AR6, which asserted that solar variation has negligible effect on the earth’s climate since the 1800s.
Willie Soon gave presentations on this paper to the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness conference in August and the Heartland’s International Conference on Climate Change on October 16. The abstract of the paper states:
“Sixteen different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature. Half of these estimates are “low variability” and half are “high variability”. Meanwhile, five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using: 1) only rural weather stations; 2) all available stations whether urban or rural (the standard approach); 3) only sea surface temperatures; 4) tree-ring widths as temperature proxies; 5) glacier length records as temperature proxies. The standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates, suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets – despite the conclusions of some earlier studies. Nonetheless, all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century, i.e., there has been some “global warming” since the 19th century. For each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures, the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares fitting. The role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC’s recommended “anthropogenic forcings” time series. For all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series, different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades (implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused) to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity (that is, that recent global warming is mostly natural). It appears that previous studies (including the most recent IPCC reports) which had prematurely concluded the former, had done so because they failed to adequately consider all the relevant estimates of TSI and/or to satisfactorily address the uncertainties still associated with Northern Hemisphere temperature trend estimates. Therefore, several recommendations on how the scientific community can more satisfactorily resolve these issues are provided.”
Asserting that solar variability has little or no role in the earth’s recent climate change is unjustified. We simply do not know. Note that this paper is different from the recent paper by Soon, et.al. “Group Sunspot Numbers: A New Reconstruction of Sunspot Activity Variations from Historical Sunspot Records Using Algorithms from Machine Learning” published in the journal, Solar Physiccreds with an earlier version published in Advances in Space Research. The latest paper makes predictions, the paper in RAA is an historical account. See link under Science: Is the Sun Rising? and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5kX4XeTmsA for Soon’s presentation.
******************
Blue Norther: In February what Texans call a Blue Norther hit as far south as the Gulf of Mexico. In Oklahoma they are called a Blue Darter and elsewhere called a Blue Whistler. In the US they come south from Canada on the east side of the Rocky Mountains and quickly drop temperatures in various sections of the Great Plains. Although severe, they are not unusual. It serves to show that in the Great Plains, electricity generators need to be winterized to be reliable. Unfortunately, in the false belief methane is a major contributor to global warming Texas natural gas producers were forced to obtain electricity from the grid rather than generate electricity from the natural gas they produce. Thus, the natural gas producers were knocked out by excessive regulation during this weather emergency. See links in the February 20 & 27 TWTW.
******************
Credibility: Two separate essays in the Wall Street Journal address the credibility problems that the current administrations in the US and the UK face. In “Omicron Has Killed Certitude” Daniel Henninger writes:
Thank you, President Biden. Your administration has achieved herd immunity. Alas, it has nothing to do with your promise to ‘shut down the virus’ or vaccinate all 330 million Americans. What you’ve done has long been thought even more impossible than finding a cure for Covid. You’ve immunized the American people against politics. Give this man the Nobel Peace Prize.
This happy news emerged from a question inside the recent Associated Press-NORC poll, which asked, ‘Thinking about the problems facing the United States and the world today, which problems would you like the government to be working on in the year 2022?’
Naturally some 68% said the economy—with the worst inflation since 1982—needed some thought. But astonishingly, the percentage who want the government to work on Covid-19 is 33%, a 20-point drop from a year ago.
Partisans whose job it is to stand in front of a microphone and explain Mr. Biden’s policies will say, ‘See, we’re winning. Our policies have removed Covid as a daily concern.’
Umm, no. Identified U.S. Omicron infections are arriving at hundreds of thousands a day. Sagas abound of burned-out hospital workers and depleted workforces. Holiday air travel was a historic nightmare. The promised supply of rapid antigen tests is today’s equivalent of the bridge to nowhere. Cloth masks worked, until they didn’t. School’s out—forever.
It was remarkable how often one saw people interviewed while standing in lines to be tested say: ‘I don’t understand how this can be happening after two years.’ People are flying the pandemic white flag: They’ve stopped caring what the government, the politicians or ‘science’ is telling them about Covid.
The Covid pandemic is altering many multiples of behavioral patterns, and one of the biggest, for which we should thank the virus, is the death of certitude.
From Covid’s start in 2020, public and scientific authorities across the world said: ‘Trust us. We know what we are doing.’ We now see that this unshakable, public-facing certitude was false.
Today, it’s fair to say that no one but the hopelessly credulous believe much of anything Mr. Biden, Jen Psaki, Anthony Fauci or Rochelle Walensky says about Covid and Omicron. The list of doubted authorities worldwide could extend to the horizon.
My purpose is not to discredit public authority or science. We need both. Public authorities in 2020 cleared the regulatory path for Operation Warp Speed, which let private-sector scientists develop protective vaccines. My intention is to re-establish a necessary virtue that looks altogether lost to public life and its scientific representatives: intellectual modesty.
Political leaders try to convey the impression of control over events, insofar as most are always on thin ice with the public. With the pandemic, the most visible faces of U.S. authority across two years—Donald Trump, Andrew Cuomo, Joe Biden—became caricatures of the in-control public figure. In their world, we were always winning.
At the center of this collapse of public confidence sits science, which has a lot to answer for. The problem is not the process of scientific discovery as understood for centuries. The problem is ‘science,’ a politicized totem now used routinely to silence legitimate challenge, for example regarding what happened in Wuhan.
Science triumphalism didn’t begin with the National Institutes of Health’s Anthony Fauci. Science as a political weapon originated with the battle over climate policy.
After discussing the complexity of medical issues, Mr Henninger concludes:
Of its nature, public health is authoritarian, ordering the masses into compliance for some larger social good, such as food-handling hygiene. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, now fitfully run by the White House-compliant Dr. Walensky, occupies a gray realm between issuing directives and serving as a scientific clearinghouse. During the pandemic, serious scientists—in and out of public life—have let their status as discoverers of important but ever-contingent knowledge be hijacked by the authoritarians of certitude. Omicron has ended their reign.
Entering our third year with Covid, the AP-NORC result effectively means some two-thirds of the population is telling its government, ‘Thanks for nothing.’ That is an overstatement, but not by much. And it won’t get better until doubt and dissent get more respect than they have now.
In “Boris Johnson’s Other Disaster” the editors discuss the other problem:
Boris Johnson is fighting for political survival amid a scandal over parties during pandemic lockdowns in 2020. And if only that were the U.K. Prime Minister’s only problem. ‘Party-gate’ is proving so damaging because the news has landed on an electorate already exasperated with Mr. Johnson over soaring energy costs.
The government estimates the average household’s energy bill rose 6% in 2021 for electricity and gas combined, to £1,339 ($1,837). That may conceal much bigger increases for some households. Some 25 suppliers have failed since August, pushing thousands of businesses and some two million domestic customers (8% of all households) to new suppliers potentially at higher rates.
The cause of this fiasco is green-energy favoritism amid a global surge in fuel prices. Retail suppliers were unprepared for surging wholesale gas and electricity prices, thanks to a cap on household energy prices imposed by Mr. Johnson’s hapless predecessor Theresa May. That cap, which became Tory Party orthodoxy, prevented retailers from accruing higher profits when wholesale prices were lower to protect themselves from supply shocks. But it also offers little lasting protection for consumers. Rising wholesale prices could force regulators to increase the price cap by 50% at its six-monthly review in February.
Britons are paying the price for decades of green policies that have made their energy grid less resilient and less affordable. Mr. Johnson didn’t start this bad-policy trend, but he has done his best to make it worse.
The main culprit is chronic preferential treatment for renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. Since the early 2000s, the government has mandated that utilities buy from renewable generators an increasing share of the power they sell to consumers. London also subsidizes new renewable capacity by guaranteeing suppliers a higher-than-market price for the electricity they plan to sell. The cost reaches to about £10 billion a year.
Renewables other than nuclear now account for nearly half of Britain’s installed electric-generating capacity, compared to 4% in 2000. The problem is that the wind doesn’t always blow, and the sun definitely doesn’t always shine in the famously rainy U.K. Nuclear capacity has fallen to 8% of electricity generation from 16% two decades ago, leaving gas to fill the gap—the same gas that has seen rapid price increases.
It’s expensive to ramp up electricity supplies in a hurry. The national grid operator expects to spend £3 billion in the current fiscal year in so-called balancing costs. That’s what it needs to pay to backup suppliers to fill temporary gaps between supply and demand, most of which these days are caused by insufficient renewable generation.
The essay goes into specifics such as Mr Johnson wanting to ramp up “decarbonization” before concluding with:
But the energy-price debacle is giving his party another reason to oust him on top of the Covid garden-party scandals. All of this is a warning to parties of the right around the world [political consertives] tempted to indulge green illusions at the expense of kitchen-table realities.
Mr. Johnson has foolishly believed the popular press on the cost of wind and solar. It is neither affordable nor reliable. It makes delivering reliable electricity extremely expensive. See links under Questioning European Green, Energy Issues – Non-US, and Articles 1 & 2.
******************
Destroying Credibility: Possibly nothing will destroy the credibility of experts in the US government more completely than the false claims of reliable and affordable wind and solar as the government continues to subsidize and promote them. No government agency has published a systematic analysis of the costs of Net Zero or “clean energy” in totally replacing fossil fuels. That is left to independent private analysts who do not have a stake in the outcome.
The late engineer Roger Andrews provided exceptional reviews of efforts to make certain islands “energy independent.” The planners grossly underestimated the extent to which wind power fails. A look at wind generation in the “windy” Columbia River Gorge shows that for the past week wind power briefly achieved one-third of its rated nameplate capacity. Except for that period of less than 24 hours it has been generating less than 15% of capacity. It is now flatlining – generating little or nothing. Those who use nameplate capacity for actual capacity or use average capacity without discussing extremes mislead the public.
Writing in Manhattan Contrarian, Francis Menton discusses estimates by independent engineer Ken Gregory of the Friends of Science in Calgary using various scenarios. The cost of Net Zero in the US is staggering. Boris Johnson is beginning to discover that his great plans to lead the UK and free world to Net Zero may cost him dearly. The UK public is slowly becoming aware that Net Zero, or “clean energy,” is an economic disaster.
Instead of using resources to calculate the costs of Net Zero or “clean energy” to the US public, the Department of Energy is using its $62 Billion windfall in the infrastructure bill to create a federal Clean Energy Corps to produce “’solutions to climate change,’ the Clean Energy Corps will seek to ‘create good paying jobs’ and ‘spur economic growth.’” As seen in reviews of the US National Assessments, Washington cannot state the problem correctly, thus it cannot find “solutions.” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Change in US Administrations, Article # 4, and https://transmission.bpa.gov/Business/Operations/Wind/twndbspt.aspx
******************
Number of the Week: $433 trillion (20+ times the US GDP). Ken Gregory estimates that pure Net Zero will cost the US public $433 trillion, or more than twenty times the 2020 US Gross Domestic Product of $20.9 trillion. Can we expect to see realistic estimates from the Department of Energy on the costs of Mr. Biden’s Green New Deal? To understand the limits of these estimates see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, especially the assumptions discussed by Mr. Menton.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
By Víctor Manuel Velasco Herrera,·Willie Soon, Douglas V. Hoyt.and Judit Muraközy, Solar Physics, January 10, 2022
Censorship
In Face of Big Tech Censorship, Free Speech Alternatives Emerge Online
By Douglas Blair, The Daily Signal, Jan 14, 2022
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Calculating The Full Costs Of Electrifying Everything Using Only Wind, Solar And Batteries
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 14, 2022
Link to report: “The Cost of Net Zero Electrification of the U.S.A.”
By Ken Gregory, Friends of Science, Calgary, Updated Jan 10, 2022
Are Portions of Washington State in Severe Drought?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 13, 2022
“Virtually every data source shows just the opposite (and there is more I could have provided to you).
“Unfortunately, this exaggeration of drought by [NOAA’s] Drought Monitor is found in other areas as well. The nation is not well served by exaggerating drought. As a result, poor decisions are made.”
Shipping Liquid Hydrogen Would Be At Least 5 Times As Expensive As LNG Per Unit Of Energy
All of the projects proposing to manufacture hydrogen where sunshine and wind are constant and cheap and ship it to where energy is consumed are clearly based on hand-waving, ignorance, sheer #hopium or outright larceny.
By Michael Barnard, CleanTechnica, Dec 20, 2021
“Assuming the same-sized ship, the delivered BTUs of energy would be about 27% of the LNG. This is because even liquified, hydrogen has less energy by volume than LNG, but also because liquifying hydrogen takes about 33% of the energy in the liquified hydrogen, as opposed to the 10% required for LNG. Different gases, different temperatures required for liquification. Amazing stuff with liquid oxygen for space travel, but not so much anywhere less exacting.”
Will the Climate Industry Move the Goalposts Again?
Global temperature was on course to meet the 2-degree target without any emissions cuts.
By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Energy, Jan 13, 2022
Being a Climate Alarmist Means Never Having to Admit You’re Wrong
By H. Sterling Burnett, The Heartland Institute, Jan 13, 2022
Nearly 140 Scientific Papers Detail The Minuscule Effect CO2 Has On Earth’s Temperature
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 13, 2022
“As of 2016 this list had only 50 papers on it (as indicated by the web address). In less than 6 years the list has grown to 137 (as of today).”
Plastics Over the Bounding Main? Not Primarily the US’s Doing
By William D. Balgord, Townhall, Jan 14, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The report by NSF is horrid.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
IPCC AR6: Streamflow, Unspun Edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 12, 2022
“In summary, the sign of global streamflow trends remains uncertain, with slightly more globally gauged rivers experiencing significantly decreasing flows than significantly increasing flows since the 1950s (low confidence).”
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
How much water is in Earth’s atmosphere?
By Joe Phelan, Live Science, Jan 10, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“Our atmosphere holds a lot of water.”
“As a result, global warming could conceivably speed up. Water vapor is a very effective greenhouse gas, and when more of it is in the atmosphere, it will contribute to warming and enhance the greenhouse effect.”
[SEPP Comment: Obvious the author read the Charney Report or did not understand it. The “speed up” is not happening!]
Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations globally affect photosynthesis of peat-forming mosses
Press Release, Umea University, Via WUWT, Jan 14, 2022
Link to paper: Global CO2 fertilization of Sphagnum peat mosses via suppression of photorespiration during the twentieth century
By Henrik Serk, Nature Scientific Reports, Dec 31, 2021
From the press release: “Although peatlands have dampened CO2-driven climate change so far, the changes have already had devastating effects. If human CO2 emissions are not strongly reduced, the atmospheric CO2 concentration will further increase by hundreds of ppm by 2100, and average global temperatures will rise several degrees C above pre-industrial levels. It is unclear how peatlands will be affected by this.” [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: The physical evidence does not support this claim.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Matt Ridley on Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 10, 2022
“Matt Ridley’s interview is well worth watching, especially between 18 and 30 mins:”
“It is a myth that you can have energy that is renewable, affordable, and reliable.”
Why Disasters Have Declined
And why did they rise from 1900 to 2000 before declining?
By Michael Shellenberger, His Blog, Jan 9, 2022
Climate Totalitarianism: Some Quotations
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jan 15, 2022
Jeremy Warner’s [UK The Telegraph] Road To Damascus
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 9, 2022
Britain To Save The World!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 8, 2022
Has a graph of Annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, by world region from Our World in Data
Are Climate Lockdowns Coming Because of a ‘Climate Emergency’? (No, It’s Not a Conspiracy Theory)
By Dale Hurd, Cornwall Alliance, Jan 13, 2022
Biden administration plans return to Obama-era protections for National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska
By Elwood Brehmer, Alaska Journal of Commerce, Anchorage Daily News, Jan 11, 2022
“The USGS now estimates there are roughly 8.8 billion barrels of available oil in the reserve and adjacent state lands, up from just 896 million barrels in 2010.”
We’re Saved!? Biden Admin: 7 federal agencies announce ‘plans that will activate the entire government to fight climate change’
By: Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Jan 12, 2022
False Alarm: Today–and Back in the 1970s
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Jan 15, 2022
Biden administration announces actions bolstering clean energy
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 12, 2022
“On offshore wind, the administration announced on Wednesday that it will hold a lease sale in the New York Bight — off the coasts of New York and New Jersey.
“This lease sale could result in the generation of up to 7 gigawatts of clean energy, enough to power 2 million homes, according to a White House fact sheet.”
[SEPP Comment: Does White House fact sheet stipulate what times the 2 million homes will get power?]
Seeking a Common Ground
Does the Massive Cascade Snowpack Mean We Don’t Have to Worry About Global Warming?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 9, 2022
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Inflation rises 7% over the past year, highest since 1982
By Jeff Cost, CNBC, Jan 12, 2022
Measurement Issues — Surface
2021 Tied for 6th Warmest Year in Continued Trend, NASA Analysis Shows
Press Release, NASA, Jan 13, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
“According to NASA’s temperature record, Earth in 2021 was about 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit (or about 1.1 degrees Celsius) warmer than the late 19th century average, the start of the industrial revolution.”
[SEPP Comment: Is this an appeal to return to the famine and starvation during the Little Ice Age? What are the locations of reliable record keeping in the 1880s in Greenland, the Arctic, the Congo, Antarctica, in the Pacific to name a few locations?]]
The last 7 years have been Earth’s 7 hottest
By Andrew Freedman, Axios, Jan 10, 2022
“The big picture: According to Copernicus, the annual global average surface temperature was 1.1-1.2°C (1.98-2.16°F) above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).”
[SEPP Comment: Surface temperatures include the effects of urbanization. Also, how were the temperatures measured in the Arctic, the Antarctic, central Africa, South America, Australia, in the oceans in 1850?]
The World Has Been Getting Much Colder For The Last Six Years
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 11, 2022
“You might also note that the satellite data begins in 1979, which just so happens to be the coldest period of the 20thC. At the time it was acknowledged that global temperatures had decline by 0.5C since 1940, which offsets most of the increase since 1979.
“This decline in temperatures coincides with the cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which has been in warm phase since the 1990s and is soon due to revert to cold.”
1920 or 2020? Hobart Tasmania Edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 12, 2022
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
World Atmospheric CO2, Its 14C Specific Activity, Non-fossil Component, Anthropogenic Fossil Component, and Emissions (1750–2018)
By Skrable, Kenneth; Chabot, George; French, Clayton, Health Physics, February 2022 [H/t Ed Berry]
Changing Weather
Drought No More: Climate Change Now Causes Too Much Rain
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 12, 2022
It’s just weather
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 12, 2022
December 1941 & 1951
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 7, 2022
Decembers 1961 & 1971
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 7, 2022
Changing Climate
Winter is coming: Researchers uncover a surprising cause of the Little Ice Age
Cold era, lasting from early 15th to mid-19th centuries, triggered by unusually warm conditions
Press Release, NSF, Jan 12, 2022
Link to paper: Little Ice Age abruptly triggered by intrusion of Atlantic waters into the Nordic Seas
By Francois LaPointe and Reymond Bradley, AAAS Science Advances, Dec 15, 2021
Climate change factors in the fossil record that accelerate mass extinction
Finding clues to the present in what happened 372 million years ago
Press Release, NSF, Jan 11, 2022
“There is also the factor of mobility: for instance, as it was getting colder, some animals that were unable to move to warmer environments may have gone extinct.”
“These broad patterns and concepts from past extinctions can be applied to understanding similar patterns researchers are seeing today, says Pier, where some groups fare well while others die out.”
Changing Seas
Coastal Land Area Is Expanding So Fast That ‘Catastrophic’ Sea Level Rise Cannot Keep Up
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 10, 2022
Stop That Now! Climate change helps aggressive mangrove forests build bigger tropical islands
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 11, 2022
Super King Tide: Water Levels Approach or Achieve Record Levels in the Northwest
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 11, 2022
Coastal Erosion & The Story Of Dunwich
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 8, 2022
England’s Crumbling Coasts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 8, 2022
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
No Evidence That Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica Is about to Collapse
By Ralph Alexander, Science Under Attack, Jan 10, 2022
East Coast sea ice so far similar to last year
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 13, 2022
Arctic Meltdown Delayed Again!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 9, 2022
Lowering Standards
Using A Reference Period Outdated 30 Years, Germany’s DWD Weather Service Turns Cooling Into Warming
By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, Die kalte Sonne, (Text translated, edited by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Jan 8, 2022
Top US weather, climate disasters killed nearly 700 last year: NOAA
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 10, 2022
Link to report: Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters
By Staff, National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA, 2022
“Deaths from these CPI-adjusted events have also increased in recent years. There has been an average of 361 deaths each year from billion-dollar storms overall since 1980, but an average of 904 per year over the past five years.”
[SEPP Comment: The 1927 flood of the Mississippi River killed about 500 people and left about 700,000 homeless, many for months. It is not considered in the NOAA report.]
20 ‘Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters’ Hit U.S. in 2021
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Jan 13, 2022
Magical seven year record wins the Hottest-ever Bingo of 2021
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 13, 2022
Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Niña Conditions
By Lijing Cheng, et al. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Accepted Jan 10, 2022 [H/t John McClaughry]
“The increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities traps heat within the climate system and increases ocean heat content (OHC).”
“The year-to-year variation of OHC is primarily tied to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).”
[SEPP Comment: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences ignoring atmospheric measurements of temperature and temperature effects of greenhouse gases? How does a modest warming of the atmosphere cause a greater warming of the oceans?]
‘Woke’ Scientific American Goes Anti-GMO
By Cameron English, ACSH, Dec 29, 2021
“’Poverty is perhaps the greatest social injustice and not providing the means for farmers to improve yields, reduce toil and suffering while advancing their lives economically and financially is hardly something to commend.
“’If you don’t allow farmers to access insecticides or seeds resistant to infestations and disease, you are condemning more women to longer hours bent over in the hot sun breaking off leaves. If you deny basic herbicides to smallholders, the backbreaking job of hand-weeding will pass down to their children (who should be in school).’”
[SEPP Comment: Adding “social justice” to the four repugnant trends in science journalism: “fair-weather advocacy”, “conclusions in search of evidence”, “lack of nuance”, and “promoting censorship.”]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Climate-driven disease devastates seagrass health
Researchers find more seagrass wasting disease outbreaks
Press Release, NSF, Jan 13, 2022
Link to paper: Effects of Seagrass Wasting Disease on Eelgrass Growth and Belowground Sugar in Natural Meadows
By Olivia J. Graham, et al., Frontiers in Marine Science, Nov 10, 2021
A year unlike all the others
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 12, 2022
“It is now habitual to look back around the beginning of January and declare that the past year was the most climate changey ever.”
“So let us guess: 2022 will feel different too, with unprecedented blah blah blah whatever just happened constituting unprecedented and final proof of climate change that ends the debate again.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Time is running out. Here’s how the climate movement can level up.
The high-risk, high-reward stakes of building a more radical movement.
By Rebecca Leber, Vox, Jan 10, 2022
Dutch Lawmaker Refutes the Claim that ‘97% of Scientists Agree on Manmade Global Warming’
By Michael van Der Galien, PJ Media, Jan 20, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
DeSmog on Vaclav Smil (and the deep thinker is largely correct!)
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Jan 15, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Just the facts, methane
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 12, 2022
“With all that cash, you’d think they could do their own research. Whereas instead the bottom line here, with all due respect to the harried, underfunded, overworked and underappreciated communications staff of two different departments, is that nobody knows where the Minister [of Natural Resources (NRC)] got that number or, if they do know, they are too embarrassed to say. It is not because of his deep study of the matter. It is not because of his well-informed and dedicated staff of nearly 5,000 NRC employees”
Don’t look, or listen, up
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 12, 2022
Expanding the Orthodoxy
DHS unveils effort to recruit climate change professionals
By Monique Beals, The Hill, Jan 12, 2022
Link to press release: Department of Homeland Security Announces Climate Change Professionals Program
By Staff, Homeland Security, Jan 12, 2022
“This two-year program will be run by the DHS Office of the Chief Readiness Support Officer and provide participants with hands-on opportunities to contribute to new initiatives that have the potential to substantially help DHS adapt to climate change and improve resilience. Upon successful completion of the program, participants will receive a Climate Change Professional accreditation from the Association of Climate Change Officers and be eligible for permanent, full-time positions at DHS.”
The Energy Crisis Is Sending Shockwaves Through The UK Economy
By Staff, City A.M. Via Oil Price.com, Jan 8, 2022
German Household Electricity Prices Reach New Record High In 2021…Share Of Green Electricity Falls!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 11, 2022
UK Wind And Solar Reliance
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 14, 2022
“Wind and solar are currently producing 1.1% of the UK’s electricity needs.” [When posted]
What’s Behind The Green Energy Hullaballoo In Europe?
By Felicity Bradstock, Oil Price.com, Jan 6, 2022
Believing is seeing
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 12, 2022
BoJo’s Green Energy Britain: Cuddle Your Pets for Warmth
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 12, 2022
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Climate industrial complex left clueless as fossil fuels proliferate
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Jan 11, 2022
A Clockwork Green
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 12, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Is it past doomsday yet?]
Funding Issues
Is Climate Finance the Next Bubble
By Arvind Subramanian Project Syndicate, Jan 4, 2022
The Political Games Continue
Why Democrats Make Energy Expensive (And Dirty)
Progressives say they care more about working people and climate change than Republicans and moderate Democrats. Why, then, do they advocate policies that make energy expensive and dirty?
By Michael Shellenberger, His Blog, Jan 10, 2022
Litigation Issues
Biden scientific integrity report validates Young v. EPA
By Steve Milloy, JunkScience.com, Jan 13, 2022
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Environmental Levies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 14, 2022
“These levies, apart from the gas levy, are all subsidies for renewable energy – all paid direct except for capacity market payments, which are paid to generators to provide standby for intermittent renewables; as such they are still regarded as part pf the cost of renewables, and therefore an indirect subsidy.”
Deaths from 1 degree of warming nothing compared to an Electricity Grid collapse for a year
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 8, 2022
Firm action on Green Levies and funds could win back support for government
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Jan 12, 2022
Link to report: The Net Zero Watch Guide to the Energy Bills Crisis
By Staff, Net Zero Watch, January 2022
Fossil Fuel Generation Outpaces Renewables in 2021 – IEA
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 14, 2022
“My view is that the IEA are ultra optimistic in even that assumption, as we know that coal power is still meeting the majority of extra demand in China and India. It is unlikely in the extreme that Europe and the US can offset this.
“While [Executive Director] Fatih Birol whistles in the dark, the fine words at COP26 hit the wall of reality.”
AEP Wakes Up & Smells The Gas! [Columnist for The Telegraph]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 14, 2022
Energy Issues — US
What Critics Get Wrong About Energy Choice
By Gene Yaw, Real Clear Energy, Jan 10, 2022
U.S. to shutter 14.9 GW of coal-fired & add 46.1 GW of utility scale solar PV in 2022
By David Middleton, WUWT, Jan 11, 2022
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Biden administration seeks reversal of Trump move opening up more Arctic drilling
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 10, 2022
Closer To Home, Part 2 – Gibson And USD Open A New Avenue For Alberta Bitumen To The Gulf Coast
By Martin King, RBN Energy, Jan 11, 2022
Return of King Coal?
Coal power to hit all time high in 2022 says IEA weeping
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 12, 2022
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Finland’s Greens Welcome EU’s Classification Of Nuclear As “Sustainable”. Berlin “On The Wrong Track”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 12, 2022
NRC Dismisses Application for Oklo Advanced Nuclear Reactor
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Jan 6, 2022
“NRC: ‘Application Lacks Information’”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Wind-generated electricity in Germany slumps to new low in 2021
By Nadia Weekes, Wind Power Monthly, Jan 10, 2022
“Fall in both onshore and offshore wind production amid rising demand leads to growth in coal and nuclear in 2021”
Largest Capacity Solar Farm in Indiana Begins Operation
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Jan 13, 2022
“’We are pleased to own and operate this large-scale solar project,’ said Matt O’Brien, president of CC&L Infrastructure. ‘As long-term investors, we believe in responsible investment. CC&L Infrastructure is focused on investing in essential infrastructure projects that support local communities while creating value for customers, employees and investors.’”
[SEPP Comment: What about costs of electricity when solar does not work?]
Wind Power: Still Uneconomic, Government Dependent
Robert L. Bradley Jr. IER, Jan 10, 2022
BOEM Launches Offshore Wind Actions for California, Gulf Coast, New York Blight
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Jan 13, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Ethiopian GERD Mega-Dam Readying to Test Power Production
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Jan 6, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
NineDot Lands Carlyle Investment for New York Battery Projects
Private-equity firm spent over $100 million on separate investments as it expands into the market for large-scale electricity storage
By Matt Wirz, WSJ, Jan. 14, 2022
“New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said this month that the state would double its 2030 energy storage target to 6,000 megawatts. The state has 130 megawatts of energy storage currently operational and 1,240 megawatts under contract, a NYSERDA spokeswoman said.”
[SEPP Comment: No estimate on costs]
Tesla unveils its giant Megapack battery project in Texas
By Fred Lambert, Electrek, Jan 6, 2022
“The project has a capacity of 100 MW/200 MWh – making it one of the biggest Tesla energy storage projects in the world.”
[SEPP Comment: No statement of cost.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Achilles Heel of Battery-Powered Vehicles, Part 2
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 11, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Don’t count on battery powered vehicles during or after an extreme weather event.]
California Dreaming
Is California About to “Stumble” in its Fight Against Climate Change?
By David Middleton, WUWT, Jan 13, 2022
Newsom allocates $22.5 billion to climate crisis in California budget proposal
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Jan 11, 2022
[SEPP Comment: 7.9%.]
Other Scientific News
Homo sapiens bones in East Africa are at least 36,000 years older than once thought
Volcanic ash dating pushes back the age of human fossils found in Ethiopia to 233,000 years ago
By Bruce Bower, Science News, Jan 12, 2022
Ancient Mesopotamian discovery transforms knowledge of early farming
By Staff Writers, New Brunswick NJ (SPX), Jan 13, 2022
Link to paper: Phytolith evidence for the pastoral origins of multi-cropping in Mesopotamia (ancient Iraq)
By Elise Jakoby Laugier, Jesse Casana & Dan Cabanes, Nature Scientific Reports, Jan 10, 2022
Humans reached remote North Atlantic islands centuries earlier than thought
Faroes settled well before Vikings arrived, lake sediments show
Press Release, NSF, Jan 12, 2022
Link to paper: Sedimentary DNA and molecular evidence for early human occupation of the Faroe Islands
By Lorelei Curtin, et al. Communications Earth & Environment, Dec 16, 2021
Other News that May Be of Interest
Geoengineering: Can we control the weather?
By Ailsa Harvey, Live Science, Jan 10, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Explore how existing and future geoengineering technologies could help humans to manipulate the climate
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Lufthansa Has To Fly 18,000 Empty Flights Just To Keep Take-Off and Landing Rights! Huge Waste Of Energy
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 9, 2022
Ninety Years Of Improving Ski Conditions
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 14, 2022
Send some global warming to Canada
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 9, 2022
Funny video.
Potty Councillor Wants Pets Included In Emission Targets
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 9, 2022
ARTICLES
1. Omicron Has Killed Certitude
People no longer care what government or ‘science’ tells them about Covid-19.
By Daniel Henninger, WSJ, Jan 12, 2022
TWTW Summary: Discussed in the This Week section above
*****************
2. Boris Johnson’s Other Disaster
His political woes are a warning to conservatives who indulge green-energy illusions.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Jan 14, 2022
TWTW Summary: Discussed in the This Week section above
*****************
3. Experts Disagree, and So Should You
Nothing can relieve you of the burden of deciding what to believe.
By Crispin Sartwell, WSJ, Jan. 13, 2022
The philosophy teacher at Dickerson College begins:
“The media have noticed that experts disagree. ‘A strange unity of confusion is emerging,’ the Washington Post reports, ‘a common inability to decipher conflicting advice and clashing guidelines coming from government, science, health, media and other institutions. On seemingly every front in the battle against the coronavirus, the messages are muddled: Test or don’t test? Which test? When? Isolate or not? For five days? Ten? Go to school or not? See friends and resume normal life, or hunker down again?’
“Deferring to the experts appears central to many people’s value systems and political identities and is emphasized relentlessly by the Biden administration and the media. For people who have staked their lives on doing whatever the experts tell them to do, the strange unity of confusion has induced an epistemic crisis.”
After discussing the bewildering arrays of expert opinion, the author concludes:
“Consider a hypothetical person who was born in 1922 and has resolved for the past century to believe all and only what the experts said. On topics such as race and sex, economics and law, astronomy and physics, psychology and medicine, our centenarian would have beliefs now entirely incompatible with those he had at the beginning. If he were to reflect on these changing beliefs, he’d have to conclude that most of the things most of the experts in most areas had said for most of the past 100 years were false. He’d do well to assume that most of what they’re saying now is false as well.
“Such a person couldn’t exist, because at every moment on almost every matter for the whole century, experts disagreed. Sheer deference would fetch you up in complete incoherence. And experts are people too. They’re muddling through like we are; they are confused too; they forget a key detail; they see what they expect or want to see.
“And finally, I’d like to urge us all to show some pride. Nodding along isn’t enough. Not only can’t we off-load responsibility for our own beliefs, we shouldn’t try.”
*****************
4. Jennifer Granholm’s Green Brigade
The Department of Energy launches a Clean Energy Corps.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Jan. 14, 2022
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:
“These are boom times in Washington, as the executive branch is expanding to spend all the money Congress has bestowed in the last two years. For sheer enthusiasm, no one beats Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, who unveiled her plan on Thursday for a federal Clean Energy Corps.
“The recent infrastructure legislation included some $62 billion in funding for clean energy, and Ms. Granholm now plans to recruit a thousand federal employees in the effort.
“‘Your country needs you! Your planet needs you!’ she proclaimed in a YouTube video, accompanied by a soaring sound track. She added that ‘we need project, grant and portfolio managers to help us get these investments out the door and deploy, deploy, deploy clean energy!’
“She also wants ‘scientists, analysts, engineers—nuclear, mechanical, electrical and civil—to help us design and evaluate the electric vehicle charging networks and the nuclear reactors of the future. We need IT, cyber security professionals, we need people managers, we need HR professionals, we need mission-support teams to keep everything running. In other words, we need you on our team!’
“You have to respect her enthusiasm, and amid a labor shortage it can’t be easy attracting people to work for the federal government. As the department explained in a news release, the Clean Energy Corps is ‘the largest staff expansion’ in its history. No wonder the secretary is thrilled.
“In addition to coming up with ‘solutions to climate change,’ the Clean Energy Corps will seek to ‘create good paying jobs’ and ‘spur economic growth,’ the department claims.
“If Ms. Granholm discovers a solution to climate change, she’ll go down in history herself. But short of that miracle, we’ll be watching to see how she and her climate recruits spend those tens of billions of dollars.”
The editorial describes examples of failures of Ms. Granholm as governor in Michigan and of the Department of Energy under the Obama Administration before concluding with:
“We suppose we should say better luck this time—to Ms. Granholm, her idealistic recruits, and especially American taxpayers. Let’s hope that among those 1,000 employees, she’ll include some auditors to follow the money.”
…Number of the Week: $433 trillion (20+ times the US GDP). Ken Gregory estimates that pure Net Zero will cost the US public $433 trillion, or more than twenty times the 2020 US Gross Domestic Product of $20.9 trillion…
Not to split hairs, but Marc Carney a COP26 said a mere $100 trillion.
That a Bank of England chief would openly promote this at COP26 (Bloomberg interview) shows what it is all about – a monstrous bailout.
Neither $433 nor a mere $100 trillion can possibly work considering the total transatlantic debt is in $quadrillions. It can only blow a huge Enron bubble for a while, leaving an economic crater.
Mark Carney’s $100 trillion is his fanciful number for the whole world, whereas Gregory’s $400trillion is just for the USA. Carney underestimates by at least 1 magnitude.
“Immediately “fact checkers in social media began to censor the publication and falsely claimed that the paper was “incorrect” and “misleading.” The “fact checkers” blindly accepted the claims in the UN IPCC AR6, which asserted that solar variation has negligible effect on the earth’s climate since the 1800s.”
As we all know, the so-called fact checkers are really narrative/opinion compliance enforcers.
How exactly does the Sun cease to have a noticeable impact on the Earth’s climate? And why then?
Here is an interesting report on rainfall in South Africa:
https://mg.co.za/opinion/2022-01-17-what-south-africas-excessive-rains-mean-for-food-prices/
The Mail & Guardian keeps pushing alarmist stories of increasing heat and drought in Southern Africa. Unfortunately the weather does not want to co-operate. The reporter did not notice how he was contradicting this narrative.
“the seasons of 2019-20 and 2020-21 were the first time in history where South Africa’s maize yields have surpassed 15 million tonnes in two successive seasons”
“The only periods in recent memory that had three successive years of conducive weather conditions and a large crop harvest were in the 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10 production seasons.”
“We are in an unusual period. South Africa has not had three consecutive seasons of above-average rainfall in a long time. The current 2021-22 rainy season follows 2020-21 and 2019-20, which had above-normal rainfall . . .”
Following the alarmist narrative and their confusion of weather and climate I can categorically state: Global warming is going to bring more rain and bumper harvests to South Africa. Rejoice!
But it is bringing drought to E Africa and Madagascar and a heatwave across S America.
Nasa admits the earth is cooling Griff.
What is your survival plan?
Droughts are less frequent and weaker as are heat waves.
You deserve pity
And mockery
I’ve tired of all the doomsday talk and prophecies from the left, and some on the right. I’ve begun using the phrase “follow the money” to evaluate all that climate crap. And the push for the “sustainable” renewable energy scams. Who benefits financially? That is the key to understand the continued push for wind and solar sourcing of energy. In my humble estimate, no one benefits who is not joined at the hip to the leftists hucksters and grifters. Who loses is the general population of the world which makes the world turn, so to speak, in that they get up in the morning, go to work, pay their taxes, raise their children(when allowed to do so), and get on with their lives. Everyone else(the parasitic moochers) sucks off the producer’s teat and attempts to enrich themselves via reams of useless BS. The outcome of this scam will not be pretty if allowed to continue. Think about it.
Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice, shame on me.
Fool me a hundred times, call me a Democrat.
Scotland’s offshore wind auction results in ‘historic’ 17 leases with massive 25 GW of capacity
There is now a confirmed pipeline of 55GW of offshore wind in the UK before 2030…
Which likely won’t be built as the subsidies dry up in an increasing economically squeezed Britain. The game is almost up
“It may be true that you cannot fool all the people all the time, but apparently you can fool enough of them to run a large country.”
Will and Ariel Durant
Quote of the Week: “You can fool all the people all the time.” – Attributed to Bernie Madoff